How in the heck is that contradictory? Yes, I'm acknowleding it's not a 100% certainty (because he could, conceivably, his 100 straight home runs to start the year, it's just bloody unlikely), but it's as close to that as I can imagine. I would suggest to you that he goes on some binge early in the season is not "as likely" as my suggestion that he ages and has less team control. It also flies in the face of how valued position players have been mid-season the last five years. So if you're correct that his second half didn't impact his value, then his age and contract are even larger factors and make it even more important to deal him now.