TheLeviathan
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Everything posted by TheLeviathan
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2018 MLB Postseason Discussion Thread
TheLeviathan replied to Otto von Ballpark's topic in Other Baseball
I also don't like creding Joe West with doing something right, but I think the call was the right one. When it comes to fan interference, I'd rather lean towards being overprotective. -
I think it's ok to be a skeptic. I'd put myself in that boat too. But I think there is a lot of hubris in thinking we have any real ability to judge what is or is not going well in the operations of our favorite team. We can judge their moves on the surface, but the real work that will make a difference is beyond our ability to see. I know it won't stop us, we're fans. But when you start stomping your feet about timelines and hard evidence and measurable progress....well, you've sorta forgot how ignorant we all really are.
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I think 95 wins is very plausible. For one, Cleveland is about to lose their two best players from an already weak bullpen. Their starting staff is still awesome, but they can be challenged. For two, the team has the trade assets in the minors to supplement any signings with trade value. In fact, of the additions they make to improve, I hope the majority come from trade. The FA signings should hopefully fill in the gaps/bullpen.
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Didn't you just admit that they mostly haven't moved forward for a long time now? Yet society most certainly has. So....I guess I don't see why you find those two hard to reconcile? There has always been a segment of the population that's a bunch of insufferable a-holes. I wish there was a Disney movie solution, but I'm also a realist. MLK's quote about the arc of justice comes to mind. We just gotta keep bending it, whether they come along or not. Wasting time trying to change their minds seems like a poor use of time and effort.
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They turned the corner In the fourth season. That have them four offseasons and three drafts. (Even then they were an 84 and 86 win team. The true rise was the sixth season after 6 offseasons and 5 drafts) If you feel Houston is the best organization in baseball (you should), then your timelines/criticisms/judgments of our FO should be comparable to their timeline. Otherwise...why think them valid?
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That the best organization in baseball wasn't exactly showing any signs of progress two years in either. Vanimal, 2014 Houston Astros Version, makes the same post about them. Likewise, they warranted such comments as this back in 2014: Maybe, the bar you're holding them too, isn't worth anything because you (and me and all of us) have virtually no clue how much progress is or isn't being made. We see, at best, the surface. What's underneath matters a helluva lot more.
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The 2013 Astros. Go look at them. They went 51-111. That team actually cut JD Martinez shortly after, BTW. The things that truly matter are not Kyle Gibson. It's Royce Lewis. It's the development of Kiriloff. It's the trade acquisitions. Only time will tell. I know patience isn't something we as fans are very good at, but it sure paid off in Houston. And Boston. And Chicago.
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What are you proposing to measure? As nick said, the 2012/2013 Astros certainly would've failed by the measures you're using to judge the Twins. And you'd have been hilariously wrong. Mike Sixel: Astros Fan would've had his torch out for that 51-111 season in Houston. Where Chris Carter and his -20 defensive WAR and 84 wRC+ had almost 600 ABs and something called Lucas Harrell got to pitch himself to a 6-17 record with a 5.89 ERA. How would that Mike Sixel feel now in 2018? I'm sure there were fans in Houston in 2013 lambasting Luhnow as a nerd who lost their favorite team 111 games and there was no "progress" on the field. And their criticism, in whatever narrow way they framed it (as I'd argue you are doing) would have justified them to see the FO as failing. Meanwhile, behind the scenes, they were building a god damn juggernaut. Perhaps we simply don't have the means to measure or draw conclusions. Our fandom blinds us to that reality so that we think we can. But really....we have no clue.
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I don't expect them to change. I don't care if they do. We can't hold up society waiting for them.
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Yes, the best way to advance progress is to win elections, put forward policy, and pull society along. You're asking why you can't teach an old dog new tricks. Have you not interacted with other humans? Have you not experienced how hard it is to change one mind, much less millions? You can't, not quickly or effectively or with any one strategy. Accept that and move on to strategies that can actually work. The South didn't move past slavery, Jim Crow, or anything else but by pushing a progressing society down their throat. Why would you expect the answer to be anything else?
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But then you like posts that call 2 years an excuse. Which is it? We might all feel like it should be doable in two years.....but if that's never happened (even for very successful organizations) than maybe it isn't actually doable. Or at least not ideal. At some point, the reality of how organizations restructure successfully should inform our expectations....no?
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Again though, what have we seen in sports? The evidence indicates it will be harder. These guys have had two years. That's it. The best in baseball - Houston - took the better part of what? 5-7 years? Sounds like your timeline. At least if you're being realistic. The evidence indicates it takes about that long to get things right. This FO isn't even close to the half-way point right now. You might say "I'm not saying a day or a year", but the tone of your posts indicates the exact opposite of that.
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I don't know, but I feel like there have been nice finds - Cave, Austin, Austidillo, Odorizzi. Yes, there have been a few guys falling apart too. But I don't view sports as the same as a healthcare company. You simply can't turn things over in a day. Even some of the best FOs take time to implement their best. Houston didn't suddenly start dominating. Oakland is constantly up and down. Milwaukee too. I feel like part of it is your expectations are unrealistic relative to how success actually happens in sports. Who has walked in and by the start of Year 2 has the team on a permanent winning model of domination?
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"Woe is us" knows no political affiliation. There are lots of potential Dem voters in the south as several candidates have shown. You know how you get people to change? Start making them lose elections.
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I feel like what he said was "Not as good" and I think the distinction matters. The Astros are the best, the Twins are in the company of 28 other teams on that front. The problem is the gap, but none of us have much context for where the Twins stand on that. The only thing we do know is that they were functionally at the bottom of the 30 team pile. Now they've improved. How much....I have no idea? If I have to put a timetable on it - it's on the development and progress of young players they drafted and developed. I feel like we've seen good signs: Gibson, Pressley, Berrios, etc. But it's hard to know for sure until the talent they've brought in starts to arrive. And at key moments like this offseason. I'll be ready to make some pretty sweeping claims come February, depending on what they do/do not do.
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I'm only happy with the direction because it is the kind of move smart, aggressive teams make. Like Milwaukee. It is a simple fact that their aggressive offseason and successful season, was made possible by selling just as much as buying. I implore you to recognize that going forward. Like all trades, the story will be told going forward. We'll see if the Twins made good use of the right strategy, but make no mistake - they did. And to bring it back to the topic at hand - Pressley's comments make it clear the team has room to get better. But his situation also shows how far we've come. There is ZERO chance Terry Ryan's organization recognizes how to make him better and helps establish him as such a valuable player.
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They need to be better, but let's also be fair.....every team seems to be inferior to the Astros in this regard. But I hope it's something they are working on. I also hope they're workign to find their own "cheat code" type finds like spin rates.
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Jorge Alcala is a pretty interesting prospect. Josh Hader was a very similar prospect when the Brewers traded for him. If you want to mimic Milwaukee, you should take note on how active they were selling pieces in the past that made their buying possible. You know, like some of us have been imploring you to recognize for months. You can't always have your foot on the gas. Sometimes you have to refuel before you stomp your foot down again. Granted, the Twins have never put their foot down much, but that was a different FO. I can only judge this one by the moves they made. They brought in a pitching coach that recognized spin rate and turned Pressley from a backend bullpen guy to a valuable piece. They recognize the right time to reload assets. Now the test comes in seeing how the assets they acquired turn out - either as trade bait or as future pieces. But your logic and strategy is faulty. As faulty as the one you keep criticizing, just the other side of the spectrum. (You especially don't get to crow about wanting to be Milwaukee. You don't. Because the pieces Milwaukee used to add Yelich and others came from selling off Lucroy, Gomez, and others)
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PA sucks. This is an objective fact. And I would bet any money he is fired for sexual harassment/MeToo issue in the next five years.
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I highly doubt Pressley would ever net much more than what the Twins got. They got a nice return.
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Jake Cave would be another. And in the recent past - Dozier, Pressley, and Escobar. Good things can happen when you give upside an opportunity. Sometimes that means cutting loose a marginally better player to create the opportunity.
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Angels Requiring Test for Potential Managers
TheLeviathan replied to Twinsbar107's topic in Other Baseball
I hope it's multiple choice with every D. answer being "Rally Monkey" -
I feel like he's become a good defender. Yeah, he's not Suter, but he also provides something Suter or Brodin or any of those others can't - a right handed shot with offense.
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Ah, sorry. I heard Henry Lake was back on KFAN and I was secretly hoping they fired Paul Allen.
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There is a wide gulf between "Yeah, we like you well enough to not cut you" and getting his level of production. It absolutely was a fluke, the kind of flukes teams get when they offer opportunity. Dozier was a guy like that for us not that long ago.
