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TheLeviathan

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Everything posted by TheLeviathan

  1. TheLeviathan
    While I'm ok with the Twins thoroughly vetting their next manager, there will come a point (and it isn't that far off) in which it does become concerning. The interviews they've done should've given them the information at this point, if it drags on too long it does start to look like indecision. We're just not at that point yet IMO. (But if by this time next week we're in the same boat I may be more inclined to get conspiratorial)
  2. TheLeviathan
    Can we restart the conversation without the silly False Dilemma of Promotion/Talent Pipeline vs. Free Agency? I'm really tired of the notion these two can't co-exist.
  3. TheLeviathan
    That seems a tad hurried, especially given how the Twins seem to like to see starters log a significant chunk of innings in AAA before a callup. Early 2016 seems more likely.
  4. TheLeviathan
    It appears the Rays may have thought he could hack it given where they played him. I'm not sure how anyone could've looked at his offensive profile from the minors and thought "elite corner OF", but yet that was the hype people were putting on him. I think the Royals identified that well.
  5. TheLeviathan
    No one is really arguing this, it's a strawman. What the trade was designed to do was boost the Royals even further along with the very improvements you went on to list. KC anticipated those improvements and traded to augment it. Whereas many feel you need to wait for the improvements to happen to be aggressive. The truth is that the Royals dealt a corner OF at this peak value (when he was seen as a legit CF) for a cost-controlled, known quantity and some other ready talent. Could it still hurt them down the line? Sure....but I bet their magical run to the World Series will more than offset that pain. Even if they don't win the title that trade and the logic behind it has been more than vindicated. It's time for people to just accept that. That doesn't mean it will always work (no course of action building a baseball team does) but it sure as heck was a catalyst to this run and something the Twins should seriously consider as soon as next year. There are times when you just stop waiting for good fortune and make your own.
  6. TheLeviathan
    Your scenario sort of fell apart when you said Buxton = Meyers.
  7. TheLeviathan
    Perhaps that's why we shouldn't limit our evaluation to OBP. That's sort of the problem for those that defend Hicks.
  8. TheLeviathan
    Stability and a comfort level working together is a strength. Insularity can even be a strength....if you have the right balance of voices to begin with. I don't think the problem the Twins have had is purely cemented in insularity, but the insularity of the organization has made them too comfortable in being gun shy because everyone is too stuck in a passive/patient form of team building.
  9. TheLeviathan
    I'd be even more curious to see how many runs the Twins scored this year after they were already down by more than 5 runs. It could totally be perceptual bias, but it felt like a lot of 10-1 games became 10-7. Those 6 runs are counted the same as if it was a 6-5 win, but meant very little in the bigger picture.
  10. TheLeviathan
    If Aaron Hicks was a ridiculously talented CF ala Cain...than I would be more ok with his empty .340 OBP. As a guy that has basically played his way to a corner spot? Um, no, a walk-heavy .340 with no power is just never going to cut it.
  11. TheLeviathan
    Vargas is likely to go through the same adjustment period Arcia went through last year - I'm a really strong advocate for people being realistic about how long it takes prospects to find success in the big leagues. Trouts are the exception, not the rule. Many of these players may maintain their offensive success, but the odds are heavily stacked against it.
  12. TheLeviathan
    Regression candidates: Santana, Escobar, Plouffe, Vargas, Suzuki Positive Regression: Mauer and Arcia It really isn't 1:1. Now we might see some positive regression to the mean from our starting pitchers, but the offense was largely a bunch of seasons that are dubious to count on maintaining.
  13. TheLeviathan
    There are many, many regression candidates on this offense. I wouldn't be so confident in them replicating last year.
  14. TheLeviathan
    I am 100% on board with this. I hope teams are looking for ways to give themselves an advantage even if it is only slight. However, most people I hear argue against the crapshoot playoffs tell a narrative and then make the facts suit their narrative, rather than letting the facts guide the discussion. This year KC is being successful so of course it's all about bullpen, defense, and solid pitching. When the Yankees are winning in the 2000s all we heard is that the vaunted Braves rotation wasn't good enough because offense wins in October. When it's Philly or San Fran it's all about shortening a series with ace pitchers. When it's the 1991 Twins it's about homefield advantage. I'd be open to someone breaking down the successful tendencies of teams that win the WS to see if there is a pattern, but that's not what happens. Instead people find a way to paint whoever the winning team ends up being as the "right model" when those models often look VERY different from each other. (And, often, very different from what they did for 162 games in the regular season. See the now power hitting 2014 Royals)
  15. TheLeviathan
    The "playoffs are a crapshoot" idea is based on the same statistical principle that says Drew Butera going 4-4 in one game doesn't make him the game's best hitter.
  16. TheLeviathan
    I think this is relevant. It also makes a compelling case that an elite OF defense can have a substantial impact.
  17. TheLeviathan
    Good article - it's depressing to hear expectations being lowered before the World Series even starts. There is an AL team about to make the World Series not because they went "all-in" for a year or any other silly notion...but because they got aggressive and made their own luck. It doesn't always work, but lowered expectations and depressing payroll before the market even opens is likely a lot less effective strategy.
  18. TheLeviathan
    Counting on Escobar at SS next year feels like a catastrophe waiting to happen ala 2014 CF.
  19. TheLeviathan
    Is that you Terry?
  20. TheLeviathan
    Being able to achieve a step up from that initial slash line isn't much of an accomplishment in my eyes. Especially since it included a .326 BABIP - sorry, I just need to see him show he's ready rather than hope for it again.
  21. TheLeviathan
    A barely .600 OPS is hard to swallow as "momentum". Let's see him attack AAA pitching first and prove he's ready, because I saw nothing in September that lead me to think a corner had been turned.
  22. TheLeviathan
    You're content with a .740 OPS at AAA?
  23. TheLeviathan
    If you are strictly referring to the player at the plate, yes, OBP is equal. A walk and a single, for just the hitter, is the same. But the impact on other baserunners is very different. It's real simple to me - would I rather have a guy with a .341 OBP that was ALL walks or ALL singles? Singles all the way because then at least occasionally I have 1st and 3rd rather than 1st and 2nd. That was my point.
  24. TheLeviathan
    Please don't misunderstand, I haven't totally given up on Hicks and I don't need him to hit 25 homeruns from LF. But I do need him to be about 100 points higher in OPS and likely a much better baserunner as well. That's a steep improvement hill to climb and I'd like to see him working towards that in AAA to start next year.
  25. TheLeviathan
    Well, for one - he isn't a longterm CF because of his own erratic, subpar play and the future of the organization. So if you're a corner OF that can't hit and only walk - you are hurting your team. Just taking walks is not going to be enough if you can't wedge any power or production beyond an empty .220 batting average. This is one of those times when the advanced stats do a disservice if they lead you to believe every OBP is created equally.
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