TheLeviathan
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Everything posted by TheLeviathan
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He looked plenty good to me. I have no idea why they consistently look away from him.
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Ripple Effects: Cities Disconnect
TheLeviathan replied to Eric Blonigen's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
We definitely agree the right thing for baseball is fan access, I just don't think direct-to-consumer is viable long term. It's too prohibitive to truly reach a lot of eyeballs. -
A true floor would address middle tier of salaries. It's why you see a lot of roleplayers in the NHL and NBA making significant money. The only players who would actually make less in a salary cap world are the super elite guys. Even then, like in the NHL and NFL, they just pay those guys and figure out the rest later. Media revenues should not be dependent on winning. You could do away with revenue sharing entirely if you just pooled media money and split it evenly. It is THE driving force of inequity in baseball.
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I was never a Kirk hater, but Atlanta is 3-2 and you could definitely argue they're a hair away from being 0-5. He looked pretty good last night but that team does not scare me in the slightest.
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Well done.
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I don't know how that path is going to be paved. It's a huge issue that has only been allowed to fester. I don't have a lot of optimism for the ideal end to this problem.
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To be clear...I'm not arguing against going away from the RSNs. I have been advocating for that on this board for like 10 years now. Especially against continuing with Bally's. I'm just making sure no one has pipedreams of reclaming that sweet, sweet 60M again. We won't, I think the odds of 20M are remote. The best thing that could happen is MLB wakes up to the barbarians at their gate and decides to stick their foot in the ground and change the way they share revenue for the long term.
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Honestly, no. It's not. I'm not sure where you got the 37M from, but that's not doable. The Padres have a seriously engaged fan base and got to 40,000. The Twins won't achieve 12 times that many fans.
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We really don't have to fall on our swords for billionaires.
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Probably about right. Now subtract the operating costs. I think it's reasonable to expect profits no more than 10-15M
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That number is based on San Diego's current subscribers. Given this is what viewership looked like two years ago: I think 40,000 is likely generous.
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Correct. And my numbers were best case scenario.
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I agree, this is the way forward unless MLB has the guts to 100% share media revenue. But I never see this model returning even half of previous levels of revenue. It is rght for fans, but is that much of a haircut viable to owners?
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Right, but you are looking at 10-15M total. Eyeballs can see your product, but at 30% of the previous return.
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I don't think you're going to be able to do both without running into all kinds of problems with blackouts or negotiations. You're splitting the pot and everyone will drop their rates since they aren't getting exclusivity.
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Using this as a guide that would be about $400 per commercial. ($10 per 1000. That's 40 x 10 for 40k people) Let's call it $500 for fun. (This would be top end then) 5 commercials per inning break plus pre and post would be about 60 commercials per broadcast? That's about 30k per broadcast. Which works out to be about 5M per season. So 10M total with ads and subscribers. And that's the top end of what I can argue.
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How much do you think they can sell to advertisers when it's only 40,000 people (at most) watching?
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Well, perhaps relative to last year's debacle in this specific market, you might see that jump. But overall, compared to 5 years ago, you're going to have less people paying into the model and less advertising dollars. The Padres have a rabid fan base and they are making 4.5M. Compare that to RSN deals at 60M and I can't see that as any reasonable way to argue is "plenty of money". It might still be worth doing, but it's a massive drop.
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Even then, with the extra local money, they're not making up tens of millions of dollars. This model is a major drop in revenue if it's the path forward. I don't know any other way around that. It gets your product in front of people (a good thing!) but at a steep discount to your bottom line.
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Can you explain where/how you see the number of people increasing by 2 to 4 times?
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Thank you for finding those numbers. The Twins had a crappy deal that was paying 40M. You're looking at a 90% haircut going direct to consumer. I've been saying it for years - that model is NOT viable.
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Apple or Amazon or Google may swoop in and save them. But make no mistake...unless non-baseball watchers are subsidizing the payouts, the payouts are going to drop substantially.
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Correct, this reckoning has been coming for a long time now. Satellite companies were the first canaries - as DirectTv and others saw their numbers drop by the millions, the cable model was next. MLB loves all the money it gets in some markets with local contracts, but it needs to take the product nationally and split the revenue. The direct-to-consumer model isn't viable IMO. The amount of money lost would be crippling.
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Goldschmidt might have been the worst "Bang for your buck" player in all of baseball last year. What makes the Padres so successful is that their GM has a real knack for when to move on and off players. There is no complacency and he has the skill to do it well. That said, they haven't won anything yet and have had some miserable seasons to go with their good ones. (Their season last year, at 82-80, was a similar disappointment. Just happened differently) But we should DEFINITELY be taking some cues from that organization.
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Ripple Effects: Cities Disconnect
TheLeviathan replied to Eric Blonigen's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Do we have any numbers on how viable that is long term? Padres and Diamondbacks went to this as a patch (the Twins should have as well) but they are making substantially less money this way in all likelihood. And maybe that's just the pill they have to swallow going forward. Padres are making 4.5M off of it. Yeah - good as dead. That isn't a viable strategy. It might've made fans happy to have it on air temporarily but it's not a solution.
