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kab21

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Everything posted by kab21

  1. kab21
    That was not a Boras tactic but rather the old CBA. At pick #4 the Twins should be safe offering slot money to any pick aside from Appel surprisingly falling. The twins won't be held hostage and should be able to sign their other picks. I think everyone is overrating Boras' effect on this draft. The penalties are too severe to go overslot.
  2. kab21
    I think the Twins decided that the starters available were unimpressive. I'm guessing that the washout rate of HS pitchers is really high after the first rd so they decided to roll the dice on some relievers with velocity hoping that that they worked out. These guys also come with a backup plan. The results haven't been that great yet though. Duffey has done well in low A but I usually don't get excited about college ballplayers until they are promoted 1-2 levels above that. Chargois and Bard are injured while Melatokis hasn't been that great (control problems). Hopefully this strategy isn't repeated again this year. I don't really care if they go pitcher or hitter in rds 2-5 because I'm just happy if any of them make it as a prospect and they have done well in the last 3 drafts.
  3. kab21
    I'm hoping for Bryant and I'm okay with Manaea and Stewart. Part of me really wants Stewart but I'm pretty sure that the Twins have him rated the lowest. They might be more aggressive now but they are still a conservative org and Stewart isn't an obvious BPA there. I get the feeling that the Twins could throw a curveball in the draft. HS catcher. I'm not really sure how I would feel about that. I really don't care who the Twins draft in the 2nd-4th rounds. I hope that there are a few pitchers but the Twins have some leeway after several nice drafts. It would be nice if they cut back on their RP'er quota though. Last 3 drafts rds 1s-4 Berrios (1s) Walker (3rd) Harrison (1s) - I think the Twins 2nd rd'er is now higher than this pick due to the new CBA Goodrum (2nd) Rosario (4th)
  4. kab21

    Babip

    kab21 replied to Sssuperdave's topic in Other Baseball

    Nobody has ever said that batters will all hit for the same BAPIP. BAPIP is simply a measure of BA on balls in play. For hitters I definitely don't consider a player lucky if he has had a high BAPIP for his entire career. Further The Hardball Times has developed an xBAPIP (expected) calculator that uses a lot of different variables to determine an xBAPIP. A few of those include LD% (a really high BA on these), HR/FB% (hit the ball harder = higher BAPIP), speed (beat out IF singles), IF popups (always outs), FB% (lower BAPIP than GB's) and several others. I'm actually too lazy to use since I find 3+ seasons of BAPIP data to give me a pretty good idea if a hitter is lucky/unlucky.
  5. kab21
    good to see Vargas hot. I would love it if one of Vargas or Walker turned into a 25+ HR bat to put after guys like Buxton/Rosario/Mauer/Sano/Arcia. Jorge Polanco
  6. kab21
    Looks like a top int'l signing that won't pan out.
  7. kab21
    The 8.5M is just for the American draft. There is a separate pool for the int'l draft. If they don't sign the #4 pick then they lose the pool money and can't spend it elsewhere. Yes, they would get the #5 pick and a larger bonus pool in 2014. The Twins won't be in a position to not be able to sign a pick. I don't think Appel, Stewart or anyone else would risk not signing at pick #4 slot money. if it was pick #8 then there would be a concern but #4 slot money is a lot.
  8. kab21
    Pitching depth is still nice to have and I have already traded Haren.
  9. kab21
    Hopefully Vargas' HR gets him kickstarted this year. He was a guy to watch after last year's amazing 40+ game stretch in Beloit but he's one of the few guys that hasn't had an amazing start for the 2 A ball teams. Boyd continues his unimpressive start 23IP, 17K, 14 BB's so far this season. 5.48 ERA
  10. kab21
    I don't understand how much of a deal they think they will get on Gray. There is only a 1M difference between 1 and 2 and Gray is virtually assured of being drafted at #2. The Astros might pick him regardless. Last year the Astros saved 2.4M by taking Correa. If they are going to save money then going after a guy like Meadows/Denney/Frazier makes sense since they are in the back half of the top 10.
  11. kab21
    I'm not trading borderline elite players. I think you are completely wrong about SS unless you are talking about 12 team leagues. There are only 20 SS's that have an OPS above .600 (50+ AB's). OPS is a little unfair to use but <.600 sucks. And in that 20 there are a lot of completely crappy fantasy players. Same story at 2B.
  12. kab21
    Perhaps the Astros pass on the big 2 but it's very unlikely that the Cubs/Rockies do. The Cubs are almost for sure going with a pitcher and the Rockies single biggest need is pitching. i don't see how they pass on Appel/Gray and go for Manaea unless Boras really holds that much power.
  13. kab21
    In the Stewart thread I likened the two from a upside/risk perspective. This is kind of unusual when you compare HS and college pitching draftees.
  14. kab21
    I wish I had actual good MI'ers but it's basically impossible to trade any of these guys for anything of value. I can only hope that I match up against teams that don't have starters because I have so many of them. I wish I didn't have so many of them but they are too valuable to cut. My trio of 3Bman could turn into coveted group since I like Plouffe and Frazier quite a bit. Low average but 25 HR guys.
  15. kab21
    The thing is that Manaea is a bit different from the typical college pitcher. He's actually shaping up as a risky pick with a lot of upside. He has a good fastball and an inconsistent slider that could be plus-plus. His change is only average by most accounts. I think his prospect status could be anywhere from Meyer (looking awesome) and May (looking like a RP'er) in a year. As a potential #4 pick he will definitely get every chance to start but so will May. Stewart is actually similar. He might have a little more upside but there is also more downside.
  16. kab21
    I'm trying to corner the market on 2B/SS/3B. I traded Craig/Haren for Frazier and Mason Williams. That gives me: 2B RWeeks Dozier (SS) SS Scutaro (2B/3B) Tejada YEscobar 3B Sandoval Frazier (1B) Plouffe (OF) I also have Schoop and Carlos Sanchez possibly coming up this year and Rosario in a year or two.
  17. kab21
    You don't pass on a player because you don't have a place to play him Ft Myers. Especially when almost everyone thinks that Sano will be promoted at midseason anyway. In addition Bryant's value at #4 is not dependent on him playing third anymore than Sano's prospect ranking is dependent on him staying at third. Bryant is the best hitter in the draft even if he's playing OF and Sano is one of the best hitters in the minors even if he's playing OF.
  18. kab21
    Not taking Bryant because you don't have a place to play him in the minors is beyond stupid. Maybe you don't think he is a good pick at #4 but at least come up with a good reason.
  19. kab21
    Everything that I have read put Buxton in another tier from Meadows and Frazier. Interesting comment from Callis: I'm kind of interested who is going in the top 10 if one or both of Frazier and Meadows drop to #10 or lower. I think they still go in the top 10 unless teams start grabbing pitchers or something. locks Gray/Appel Bryant likelys Manaea Stewart Denney Possibles Moran Shipley
  20. kab21
    You didn't overpay because Buchholz isn't that good. he might be getting K's but he's not getting swinging strikes. Usually those are needed to get K's. You locked in a stud and an underrated older productive player. It's kind of ridiculous how little value people put on guys like ARam. It sucks to lose Wacha but he is still just a prospect. This is the type of move that I love to do.
  21. kab21
    You're only argument that Castellanos was in a different tier of talent so far is that he was the 44th pick. He was at the absolute minimum a mid first rd talent and part of the gap between Castellanos and Buxton/Machado was the difference in defensive value. Coming into the draft his bat was that good. FWIW - his signing bonus was 3.45M. That is equal to the 5th overall slot in this years draft. He was an elite bat in the draft.
  22. kab21
    I'm not picky as long as they are good hitters. I still think you are underselling Arcia and underestimating how easy it is to pick up your classic slugger at DH/1B when most of the lineup is making the min or in arb. There are also some other power prospects in the minors that can be that power bat that you are looking for. Vargas, Walker (70 power) and Harrison are 3 of my favorites. In other years these guys would be getting a lot more attention.
  23. kab21
    That is the problem with becoming the no doubt #3. I guess the best case is that Manaea finishes the season strong and becomes a good consolation prize or gets taken by the Rockies if their pitching struggles and Arenado plays well.
  24. kab21
    guys that hit doubles and don't make outs don't make it much more difficult. Ashbury tried to make it sound like the Twins had a bunch of singles/BB hitters coming up. that isn't true at all. the best part of the projected Twins lineups is that the Twins can score runs top to bottom in the lineup instead of having several borderline awful hitters grouped together.
  25. kab21
    We are only losing 1 of those types of players and we only have one of those types of players on this team (not counting Arcia). Morneau has been a shadow of himself and isn't even very good. And the Twins have two of those guys in the system and could put out a lineup that has decent pop at almost every position. That makes up for not having 3-4 classic middle of the order bats.
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