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kab21

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Everything posted by kab21

  1. kab21
    Exactly how long does he have to continue to hit for it to be too long in CR? Is half of a season too much? I can't even tell if you're in disagreement with the accepted belief that he will be called up at midseason. I actually think he could get an earlier promotion when Kepler is ready for CR. It's a convenient excuse to start player movement.
  2. kab21
    there's almost no doubt that Joe becomes a HOF'er at this point. Sure it would help if he had a few more above average seasons to pad his stats but that starts bringing him into first ballot territory. Yes, first ballot territory.
  3. kab21
    i still have no idea what you are suggesting. should he be in AA this year? As a comparison Trout didn't go to AA during the comparable season. he played 80+ games in Cedar Rapids and then 50+ games in High A. The next season he played in 90+ games in AA and was a late season callup. Are you suggesting that the Twins should be more aggressive with Buxton? I think the board unanimously thinks that Buxton will be called up to Ft Myers at midseason. Do you disagree with this plan?
  4. kab21
    Do you really consider 2 levels per year too slow? Is your intent that Buxton is competing for a CF job next spring?
  5. kab21
    The spin machine just keeps going... It was good to get a WR that they apparently like since that is an essential need for the Vikings. Bill Barnwell on day one of the NFL draft - Grantland
  6. kab21
    Here's what I see: 32 yr old in his decline years that physically (strength) isn't close to his pre-concussion days. .618 OPS .773 OPS if he is in the .750 area this year then he really isn't that valuable at 1B/DH on a multi-year contract in the 3/30 range factoring in the injury risk and inevitable further decline. I don't care if they don't spend the money elsewhere I'm not interested in locking up an injury prone 1B/DH that could be OPS'ing in the low .700's. In this case you try to sign him in free agency for something like 1/5. If he is able to push his OPS this year up past .800 and he looks better then they can look at bringing him back on a 2/20 deal since that is a legitimate bat at 1B/DH.
  7. kab21
    0 positive posts 1,033 negative posts
  8. kab21
    Are the Marlins going to fire their manager when they gave him no talent (aside from Stanton) to work with? Redmond seems like that sacrificial lamb that has manage the team for 2-3 seasons while they are just awful.
  9. kab21
    I think it depends on whether he develops 10 HR power or 20 HR power. Regardless if he realizes his potential then the Twins will have a great player regardless of where he bats.
  10. kab21
    We will know more at the end of this season but unless he posts an OPS >.800 then there is no way you even consider spending that kind of money on Morneau. I don't have a problem bringing Morneau back at market rate though on a 2 yr deal. That gives you 3 guys (including Doumit) for 2 positions that aren't expensive and none are great and/or durable.
  11. kab21
    Buxton and Sano could (should?) both be up in 2015 but they will probably both have some slumps and might not be batting 3/4. It's also possible that buxton bats leadoff out of necessity for a couple of years.
  12. kab21
    Groundballs are nice but strikeouts and walks to a lesser extent are the dominant factors in pitcher's effectiveness. I remember an analysis from several years ago. I definitely don't have a link since I considered the analysis incomplete (didn't look at multiple seasons) and it was done on a new startup site (lack of track record). However I thought the project started out well and agreed with the weighting that they assigned to the 3 outcomes studied. The weightings that they found were 1 for K's, 0.5 for BB's and 0.12 for GB's. That means that K's are 8 times more important than GB's. And if you are going to be a low K pitcher then you better be very good at limiting walks and flyballs if you are going to survive.
  13. kab21
    Trading Willingham is part of the accelerated rebuild imo since he should bring back a good prospect (preferably pitching or MI). Trading Morneau isn't as necessary because I don't think he will net a significant prosepct. It does make sense to trade him if that's the only way to get Parmelee/Arcia playing time. There are some that consider burn it to the ground style rebuilds as the only correct way to rebuild but I disagree. it's fine to have veterans as long as they don't block prospects and they don't have long term burdensome contracts. they also become tradeable assets (like Willingham or Perkins) but some might not be valuable to trade (Morneau, Doumit, Burton for example).
  14. kab21
    He will definitely get every chance as a starter but I have my doubts and I can see him being the out of options guy that has to stick in the bullpen in 2016 if he isn't in the bullpen sooner.
  15. kab21
    Right now I'm down on May for the reasons drivlikejehu lists. But you can't teach velocity and it's possible that he matures as a pitcher and becomes a A.J. Burnett style pitcher (not as good though). As a downside I think he can make the move into the bullpen and be a really good 7th/8th/9th inning guy.
  16. kab21
    I think I'm starting to settle on Bryant as my #3 in this class. I would like a pitcher with the 4th pick but grabbing a legit middle of the order RH'd bat would be awesome. Additionally he should could be up in 2014. It would create an interesting situation since the Twins have another defensively challenged potentially elite 3Bman with the same timetable. Has anyone speculated who is better defensively between Bryant and Sano?
  17. kab21
    This all depends on several things. Actually landing a guy like Stanton or Price is the big one. Neither of these guys might end up being available and there will definitely be a lot of competition for them. If they don't land an elite guy they could be very tempted to go after Willingham for a pretty solid prospect package (more than Sardinas) or Morneau for one high risk A/rk ball player. In addition they might not want to move Profar at all since going after Price or Stanton would still require gutting the farm system even if they use Profar as the main piece. If they want to keep their top prospects then it might make sense trading a couple of high risk guys that are ranked #6-20 in their system. They also have a lot of these high risk lottery ticket prospects in their farm system. There will be other teams also interested in Willingham or Morneau.
  18. kab21
    Couldn't you make this argument - Parmelee vs Arcia vs doumit vs Morneau? The Twins absolutely need to find out what kind of bat Parmelee can offer future Twins teams this year. Morneau, Willingham and Doumit (probably not him) could all be gone by opening day 2014 and that leaves 2-3 holes to fill even if Hicks and Arcia are starters.
  19. kab21
    Dave Cameron says a lot of things. This is the same person that criticized the Twins for paying 'a lot of money' to Kubel (2/7 guaranteed) because a 'similar' player (Hinske) was signed for a lower cost. I will agree that punting isn't smart but that doesn't mean that you stray from a long term plan. You also don't stray from that plan based on a hot start that likely results in a 70-75 win season regardless.
  20. kab21
    If the Twins end up with Mauer and a bunch of guys making the MLB min on offense then FA is definitely an option to acquire an ace. That's the benefit of having a bunch of prospects grouped closely together. I already know that you will use the old 'the Twins have never spent a lot of money in FA' excuse but the Twins have only recently had a payroll above the league average. Since Target Field opened they have had payrolls full of moderately expensive vets (no payroll room) or an absolutely awful team where splurging big doesn't make sense at all.
  21. kab21
    I read and answered this part.
  22. kab21
    Really? The #1, #2 and #4 need for the Twins to rebuild is pitching and Revere brought in two pretty good arms. That is the required step to rebuild even if it means trading a young player. #3 and #5 is MI if you are interested.
  23. kab21
    I think there is almost no chance that Sano is up this year. Perhaps June/July 2014 and likely in 2015. I think people are going a little overboard right now...
  24. kab21
    Profar/Andrus are completely out of the question but toolsy A ball prospects (Sardinas and Odor) are in play for guys like Willingham and Morneau. That of course depends on guys like Cruz and Berkman suffering their yearly injuries while Willingham and/or Morneau stay healthy and hit the ball. I think the key that makes the accelerating title work is that Sano/Buxton/Rosario look like they could play at 2 levels this year while Meyer looks like he could become at least an ace-lite for the Twins. Aside from Kepler's injury the only prospect disappointments have been hicks and Mays although I was hoping for more from Gibson.
  25. kab21
    Sano sticking at 3B has very little to do with his value. Most of the rankers have said that they think he will probably move and that is already factored into his ranking. The big thing holding Sano back (if anything) are the K's. they are not horrible but merely acceptable right now. As far as Buxton I would like to see a little more but the numbers and the physical observations have been great. I would have had him more in the 20-25 range this offseason so I think cracking the top 10 is pretty fair at this point.
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