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kab21

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Everything posted by kab21

  1. kab21
    The Twins production at DH has been an aberration of good luck. In reality the Twins options at the worst hitter out of DH/RF/LF starters is fairly terrible aside from Pinto who is in a cold streak and wasn't going to get most of the AB's anyway.
  2. kab21
    Why does rebuilding mean you have to play bad players instead of getting better ones? If there were good young players to play then it doesn't make sense but Morales is taking AB's away from kind of terrible players. Signing Morales does not affect rebuilding and could give them a trade chip (not as likely as some think).
  3. kab21
    Achilles injuries suck. This isn't a trivial recovery or something that comes back 100% (as a 30 something). I think combined with his other injuries that he's recovering from that it's the end.
  4. kab21
    I have been getting really lucky the last 2-3 weeks. A lot of 10-20 point wins and TRad lost 3 this week. And an unnamed somebody is just 1GB of me. I was working on a Cargo/Hanley deal but he would only take Stanton. No thanks even if you are giving draft picks or good prospects.
  5. kab21
    Pinto shouldn't be sent down. He's 25 and the Twins are trying to win right now. They have a better chance if Pinto is up instead of Fryer/Herrman and it's not like Pinto is just sitting around spitting sunflower seeds on his days off. Regardless of what people think there is a lot to learn about being an MLB'er beyond the AB's. Especially for a catcher. I would like to see Hicks down for 1-2 months hitting everyday. In this case Hicks really does need AB's against RHP's. Correia and Burton. good bye. May and ? can come up. Deduno - I'm okay with him for another month. I also don't like turning over too much of the rotation too quickly. If nobody gets injured, May does well (not a given) and Meyer forces the issue during the next month then something can happen. Parmelee - there isn't anybody decent to send up so he can stay. I wouldn't be shocked if he turned into a solid role player.
  6. kab21
    Just as long as they don't go heavy on relief pitching... It will be interesting to see if the Twins end up closer to the middle of the draft next season. A lot of things change at that point. I really liked Shipley, Touki and Holmes the last 2 years but it was too early to pick them at 4/5. Taking them at #13 would have been great. Newcomb was another guy that dropped. I also would have no problems if they picked another SS. Several of these guys aren't total locks to stick at SS and no team ever said we have too many MI'ers and nobody will trade for them.
  7. kab21
    I have no problem if they are close (this would be awesome) at the trade deadline and just hold. They need a SS, a CF'er and a SP'er. They likely won't get a decent SS or CF'er and they have May and Meyer to call up at SP'er. I think it's also unlikely that both Willy and Morales (and Mauer and Arcia) all stay healthy so a guy like Vargas could find himself playing. These are things that just don't concern me considering the last couple of years. If this team is playing well and around .500 with Buxton, Sano (not this year obviously), Rosario, Vargas and Meyer poised to make the jump (or have made the jump) to majors then I will be very happy.
  8. kab21
    Willingham but... I'm optimistic that Vargas forces his way onto the roster next spring. He can't do that if Morales and Mauer are locked in at DH/1B. If he doesn't then Willingham can DH. Although I'm 100% in favor of the Morales signing I'm not sure how well he will do in Target Field. He hits most of his HR's lefthanded to RF and RC and that is a tough place to hit HR's at Target Field. He does offer a nice LH'd (switchhitter) bat to balance out a mostly righty lineup if Buxton and Sano are up. I might pass on both though if some of Arcia, Vargas, Sano and Buxton all are making a case to be on the opening day roster as starters. And Plouffe shows that he is good enough to start somewhere. Hicks might show that he deserves to be an MLB player after switching to RH batting. There are only so many AB's and someday the farm should start sending guys up. I would probably look for someone more athletic and versatile (the De Aza or Jon Jay mold).
  9. kab21
    But it doesn't intellectually make sense when you don't have young (good) prospects getting the AB's that Morales is taking and the players that he replaces suck. If Sano wasn't out for the year, Buxton hadn't missed the 1st 2+ months, Vargas was ready to be promoted, Parmelee hadn't sucked again or if the Twins had legitimate young options for those AB's then Morales wouldn't be a great choice. But the Twins are giving those AB's to some absolutely awful players. Intellectually this move should make a lot of sense.
  10. kab21
    You don't move Meyer to the bullpen until August when he has pitched most of his starter workload innings. By the end of July he should have 120+ innings so picking up an extra 10/month as a RP'er works well. If you leave him at starter for the whole season then he will end up with 160-180. Obviously you have to handle him differently than a normal RP'er (like no back to back games) but he gets a taste of MLB hitters and should be ready for the rotation in April.
  11. kab21
    If you are going to use ZiPS projections for Morales then you should use ZiPS for whichever player(s) he pushes out of the lineup instead of the incredibly lucky .860 OPS posted by whichever players have DH'd. Guys losing AB's and their ZiPS Kubel - .666 Santana - .645 Nunez - .669 - this guy keeps showing up in the lineup in the OF/DH - he's a futility IF'er that shouldn't be starting ever at these positions Parmelee - .682 Pinto - .714 - it should also be obvious that Pinto wasn't going to be DH'ing a lot. I will gladly take a legitimate middle of the order bat in place of this list only for the cost of money (that isn't mine).
  12. kab21
    Thank goodness. The Twins actually have hitters at positions where hitters should actually play instead throwing some random guy in there. My pet peeve forever is the notion that something will just work out at key offensive positions. Pinto loses a few DH AB's but he is literally the only good hitter that loses any AB's in this deal and this is assuming that Morales/Willy/Arcia can all stay healthy. That's unlikely. I was a little excited to think that Vargas might make an appearance late this season but I can wait a year for that.
  13. kab21
    We aren't developing Santana as a CF'er, we are playing the best current option. He also doesn't need to develop much as a SS (his defense is really good), he needs to develop as a hitter. This is currently happening. I expect his BAPIP to correct but I also expect his K rate to go down some. Willy, Arcia and Morales (and maybe Mauer) all need at least one day off each week.
  14. kab21
    It all depends just how favorable the contract is for the team. Singleton's contract is incredibly favorable if he is simply an average player. And if he sucks then 2M/yr max is sunk. That is pocket change.
  15. kab21
    start the season...
  16. kab21
    It takes a high draft pick and top level college competition to skip right to A ball. here are pitchers that have done it recently. guys who skipped rk ball gibson wimmers gutierrez guys who made a few appearances and moved up to A ball quickly Zac Jones Melatokis Bullock Burdi is a better prospect than any of the last 3 and because he is a RP'er (drafted lower than starters) his skill level is at least on par with the first 3.
  17. kab21
    If Dozier is still a Twin then he will be a starter. He could be trade bait in 2-3 years considering that the Twins actually have some MI talent in the system now. I don't think Walker, Harrison and Kepler will be starters. They are talented and could be guys that move up lists but right now none of them are showing that they will make it. Vargas is interesting as a one dimensional slugger though.
  18. kab21
    He should start in Ft Myers this season and the 3rd rd should start in Cedar Rapids. Burdi played in a top college program and top college players don't need to start in the midwest league. I don't think he would need to be promoted this season unless he destroys it there but his performance should dictate when he gets promoted. I could see 2014 at Ft Myers and 1/2 of 2015 in AA with a promotion to the Twins if he looks good.
  19. kab21
    it would probably have to be a little better than Singleton's contract but not much. Arcia carries some downside but he didn't get a big bonus as an international free agent so guaranteed money would be a big deal to him.
  20. kab21
    They were in contact with him long before #43. They probably worked out a deal before the draft and were staying in contact with his agent during the draft. By telling him that there is one more guy on their board prepares the agent that they might not pick him but that he is close.
  21. kab21
    The public is not aware of this. I explained everything to my father at a Kernals game and he was shocked at how little they were paid. And my estimates were apparently way too high. 1150/mo? It doesn't matter if people are willing to play for that. It is an unfair wage for the required number of hours. Part of the reason that players are willing to take it is that they have no other option to advance in pro baseball. If I had the talent I would have done it also but it's a pitiful wage.
  22. kab21
    Gutierrez was never on the fast track to the majors or becoming the next closer. He was a closer in college partly due having TJ in what I believe was his sophomore year. They didn't want to push him too hard his junior year so they put him at closer. He was drafted and developed to be a starter. He is also incredibly different from Burdi since gutierrez had a low 90's hard sinker and a what looked like a nice slider that he never really used effectively. Almost nothing in common with Burdi or Bullock. Bullock was very similar (but not as good) to Burdi and can serve as an example of how poor command despite good college BB rates still means poor command. Burdi had a career 3.2 BB/9 (trending better albeit) vs Bullock 3.5 (trending worse). Just because you can be effectively wild in college doesn't mean that pro hitters in AA/AAA/MLB will swing at anything. Or they still might as seen by several top MLB setup guys and closers with poor BB rates.
  23. kab21
    They are not buying them out of their college commitment. they are basically giving them a scholarship to that college to use if/when baseball doesn't work out so that education can't be used as a deciding factor.
  24. kab21
    I'm pretty sure that agents and players are not that insecure in thinking they are the top player on everyone's draft board. They likely had a deal already in place with Burdi and they were keeping him informed on whether or not they would pick him. That would not be an insult to anyone.
  25. kab21
    Just because they might not have a long term impact that doesn't mean that you just throw this many picks away on RP'ers. I can understand a guy like Burdi but look for guys like Rosario, Goodrum, Walker and Navarreto in rds 2-6.
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