Thrylos

Both Jimenez and E. Santana are in the same boat as far as QO's go. The difference between them and someone like Lohse last season is that he was 34, so a long term signing did not make much sense nor did giving up a 1st round pick for a year or two of his services. Jimenez and Santana are young enough to merit a long term contract and for some teams giving up a first round pick is not a big deal if they are going to win. Players like Beltran, Cruz, Kuroda, Grandenson and Napoli are in the same boat this season as Lohse was last season and they will be better of to accept those offers.

Probably more, because there is not much of a pipeline in the Twins organization. I would look at a 3 year or 2+1 for Kazmir and the same for Johnson and an 1 + 1 for Volquez. I don't really think much of Diamond. On a good team he is a swingman at best. His 2013 was more like his 2011, which makes me think that his 2012 was an aberration (think Albers' first few games), because the raw stuff is not there as well... And we are talking about a good competitive team. And good, competitive teams do not sell good performing players in the deadline, unless they have better in the pipeline to replace them. The Twins have to start thinking like champions for a change...

in 2013: Vargas May Dean Darnell Fuentes Z Jones Summers T Rogers Wheeler Rohlfing Hanson Koch A. Walker et al

They funny irony about that boogeyman is that he is talking about how signing FAs is a "shortcut" on one hand, but on the other he goes and signs a whole bunch of never had been MiLB FAs who are blocking the prospects he says should be "developed within"... Scary. Actions speak louder than words.

Agree. There are free agent starting pitchers this off-season that a team can build from for the next 3-5 years. And if they do not, the pipe dream of the future when Sano and Buxton et al arrive, might be at risk. I did a little exercise today: -took 3 criteria for such pitchers who are free agents (age is one) and looked at who the Twins should sing. -came up with an "A list" with five names and a "B list" with four. The 3 top, in my opinion are here (along with the whole thought and elimination process). I think that the Twins a. can afford them and b. there is one very interesting name among the 3 who nobody has been talking about...

Dink is a really good community guy in Rochester and with the potential to be a future coach/manager someplace with the Twins (think Watkins). I think that the Twins will try to sign him. DeVries, Stuifbergen, Guerra, Soliman, Morales should all be re-signed also. It was not long ago that the last four were top 15 prospects, and they are all relatively young (24 or less.) The 3 pitchers all coming back from injuries. I'd rather see them have another chance than the 30+ never had beens who they sign every year. Morales had a break-through season in Fort Myers and bombed in New Britain. This team is thin in OF talent (believe it or not.) I'd rather see him than Richardson. DeVries, I think, can help the Twins. Few remember, but before he returned to starting, he was a lights out closer in New Britain. His curve plays really nicely in the pen. I think that he should be fighting for a pen position the spring, if healthy.

How much impact would Dee Gordon have for the Twins? I suspect that, defense considered, it will be a wash with Florimon...

This is kind of misleading, because Pelfrey's and Gibson's FBs were high pushing the rest up... Here are the numbers: Mike Pelfrey 92.2 Kyle Gibson 92.1 Kevin Correia 90.4 Samuel Deduno 90.3 Liam Hendriks 90.0 Vance Worley 89.5 P.J. Walters 89.4 Scott Diamond 88.4 Pedro Hernandez 88.4 Andrew Albers 85. And Pelfrey is one of these rare guys with high FB velocity but very low K/9 or K/PA and he really skews the situation... part of the low K/rates is Rick Anderson's pitch to contact philosophy for sure. Some part is the personnel

Originally posted at The Tenth Inning Stretch ----- It is not a secret, that the biggest problem the Minnesota Twins had in the past few woeful season, as far as players are concerned, is the lack of a reliable rotation. While a lot of fans are looking at 2015 or 2016 as the potential contenting point for the Twins, when Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton "come to age", the dirty secret is that there are not (other than Alex Meyer and potentially Kyle Gibson above A level) any sure bets for top of the rotation pitchers in the system, which, almost certainly would guarantee mediocrity at best for the middle of this decade. This off-season the Twins have an opportunity to remediate this via free agency and, in addition to 2015 and beyond, be competitive in 2014. In order to do so, the Twins would need to sign at least 3 pitchers better than Kevin Correia who can be a place holder for Alex Meyer, in his last contract year and with Kyle Gibson would be the 2 remaining parts of the Twins' rotation in 2014. Who should those three new pitchers be? What would it take to sign them? Remember, we are not looking only for 2014, but we are looking beyond. And we are looking for numbers one, two and three in the Twins' rotation, allowing Gibson to be number four and Correia number five, which would result in a competitive rotation. Potentially one of these positions could come internally: Alex Meyer might be one out of Spring Training; I have not given up on Vance Worley because of an awful injury, out-of-shapeness and bad luck (BABIP) induced, age 25 season; and nobody knows whether Samuel Deduno might take the next step. What characteristics those free agents should have? If you look at the measurable characteristics the top pitchers have, two jump out right away, and these 2 happen to be the exact ones the Twins' rotation has been lacking: a. Hard throwing. Average Fastball velocity in MLB is 92 mph, including relievers b. Missing bats. Average K/9 is around 7 in the majors, so we are looking for top of the rotation players with K/9 above 8. Only 3 Minnesota Twins starting pitchers, both left-handed, since PitchF/X was introduced allowing the measurement of pitch velocities, satisfied that criteria: Johan Santana (2004, 2005, 2006) and Fransisco Liriano (2005, 2006, 2010). And because of the long-term vision (we are looking for players who can get 3+1 or 4+1 contacts and would be with the team for the biggest part of the decade when Sano and Buxton come to age) the Twins need to look at pitchers who would at mostly be 31 years old in 2014, so they do not pay for a pitcher's declining seasons. One can argue that an older pitcher can be signed in an one or two year contract as a place holder for someone like Kohl Steward, which is a valid argument, but at this point it does not guarantee competitiveness, since Kohl Steward is not a sure bet now. Here are the 3 criteria (all measurable) the Twins should look for in a free agent: a. Average FB velocity >= 92 mph b. K/9 >= 8 c. Age in 2014 season =< 31 Here is a list of all 2014 free agent starting pitchers, from MLB trade rumors, alphabetically and with 2014 season ages in parenthesis: Alfredo Aceves (31) Bronson Arroyo (37) Scott Baker (32) Erik Bedard (35) Travis Blackley (31) A.J. Burnett (37) Chris Capuano (35) Chris Carpenter (39) Bruce Chen (37) Bartolo Colon (41) Scott Feldman (30) Gavin Floyd (31) Jeff Francis (33) Freddy Garcia (37) Jon Garland (34) Matt Garza (30) Chad Gaudin (31) Roy Halladay (37) Jason Hammel (31) Aaron Harang (36) Dan Haren (33) Roberto Hernandez (33) Tim Hudson (38) Phil Hughes (28) Ubaldo Jimenez (30) Josh Johnson (30) Jair Jurrjens (28) Jeff Karstens (31) Scott Kazmir (30) Hiroki Kuroda (39) John Lannan (29) Wade LeBlanc (29) Jon Lester (30) Colby Lewis (34) Ted Lilly (38) Paul Maholm (32) Shaun Marcum (32) Jason Marquis (35) Daisuke Matsuzaka (33) James McDonald (29) Randy Messenger (32) Ricky Nolasco (31) Sean O'Sullivan (26) Roy Oswalt (35) Mike Pelfrey (30) Greg Reynolds (28) Clayton Richard (30) Ervin Santana (31) Johan Santana (34) Joe Saunders (33) Kevin Slowey (30) Masahiro Tanaka (25) Jason Vargas (31) Ryan Vogelsong (36) Trimming the list by age, and listing K/9 and average FB velocity for both 2012 and 2013, disqualifying pitchers who (because we are looking mostly for "sure bets". Reclamation projects and bargains could fit for one of these positions, but are out of scope for this exercise.) : a. pitched less than 50 innings due to injury in 2013 b. pitched mostly in the pen in 2013 c. pitched mostly in minor or foreign leagues in 2013 we have this list (with K/9 and FB velocity fitting the criteria indicated in green, if fit complete or in yellow if fit when rounded up to no decimals) : http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5542/10710062884_1fb93bcac8_o.jpg The "A" list (at least two pitchers should be from this list) : Matt Garza, RHP, 30. Difficult to see a Garza reunion with Ron Gardenhire and Rick Anderson still on the Twins' staff. Documented personality conflicts when with the Twins Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP, 30. Received a qualifying offer, which means the Twins will have to surrender their second round pick to sign him. Price will be high because of monster second half. Josh Johnson, RHP, 30. No qualifying offers. Health and performance consideration (if one looks at W-L and ERA; but solid xFIP and peripherals) will drop the price Scott Kazmir, LHP, 30. The only lefty in the list. No qualifying offer. Great year suggests that recovered from injury nicely Edinson Volquez, RHP, 30 . No qualifying offer. Very quietly made it to the list. A sleeper, potentially low cost signing The "B" list (potentially one pitcher should be from this list, but there are questions) : Phil Hughes (28) He is intriguing; close with the K/9. Still in early prime. Can be the one from this group to target Jon Lester (30) Will likely stay with the Red Sox. Expensive. Lots of people think of him as an "A list" pitcher but is not. Mike Pelfrey (30) Interesting to see him in the list, but his K/9 is not in the ball park. Can he get his K/9 up? Great fit in the Twins' club house. Should the Twins take another flier with Pelfrey another year away from TJ surgery? Ervin Santana (31) Expensive. Lots of people think of him as an "A list" pitcher but is not. Received a qualifying offer. Stay away for the money. More expensive that all the pitchers in the A list, other than Jimenez. The rest: Gaudin was a reliever in 2012 when he met the criteria. Nolasco and Vargas are thought to belong in the "A list" potentially. They do not. Who are the three starting pitchers the Minnesota Twins should sign in 2013, in order to be competitive in 2014 and beyond? They are: Josh Johnson Scott Kazmir Edinson Volquez Can they sign all three? The short answer is "yes", but I will examine the Twins' budget in another post...

That's one way to look at things. Another is to look for pitchers who a. throw hard and b. have high K/9. Part of the reason the Twins' SPs are throwing soft stuff in the zone is that: a. they do not throw hard and b. Anderson's philosophy is to "throw strikes and let your defense do their job". So, since Anderson is still around, I'd rather see pitchers who have fast fastballs and strike people out. This is part of the reason that I smirk when I see people suggesting that Thielbar or another soft tosser can replace Duensing in the 'pen...

Congrats to Albers. Seriously now, I know they are few, but how many Canadian pitchers are in the minors? 50-100? More than 100? Still I bet that it is in the ballpark and it is not like he is the only one...

I think that Lewis Thorpe is way too high based on a total of 44 innings at the GCL if you consider his potential. He did have monster numbers, but if you compare them to Berrios' 2012 numbers in the GCL and Appy, they are not that monster. And I am referring to Berrios because he is ranked at around that spot. Were he hitting 95 and had a couple of above average offering to complement his FB, it would have been a different story. I know he is a lefty and there is a lot of hype right now, but...

Yes, but: his FIP went from 4.24 to 3.79 and his BABIP increased from .292 to .329. Also his K/9 increased and B/9 dropped, which are all signs of progress. He still walks way too many for my taste at this point, but I think a change of scenery at AAA might help.

Depends Let's see how he finishes his career. Borderline right now. Santo was elected by the veterans' committee. Also who knows how the writers will feel about his linkage to PEDs in 8-10 years when he will be up for election.

Average Jimenez' and Jonhson's FIPs and see who has the best. I'd argue that Johnson's 2013 FIP was a fluke more than Jimenez' 2012 FIP (compare their xFIPs and BABIPs for those 2 seasons.) And in 2013 Johnson played in AL East while Jimenez in AL Central that had 2 of the worst teams in baseball. Big difference.

The problem with Thompson and the other AAAA LHPs the Twins have is that they are soft tossers. His FB is of the 88 mph variety. Duensing reaches 94-95 and averaged 92.5 the past season. They already have 4 soft tossing lefties (Diamond, Albers, Hernandez -if he stays-, Thielbar) at least (I'd argue that Darnell and Dean are also) ahead of Thompson. Minor league filler barring injury, I think.

Looks like his camp will be asking close to Lincecum numbers... I am pretty confident that he will get it. Interesting comments from Radcliff in that link, which make me think that these guys (Twins FO scouts) do not know the difference between "horrible" and "good" and they go by W-L and ERA. Unless they think that every single Twins SP was "horrible", since Johnson's 3.58 xFIP dwarfs all of the Twins' SP numbers, and his k/9 is almost double to the best Twins' SP.

This will be interesting. He was actually ok when he pitched last season (8.5 K/9, 2.85 K/BB, 1.333 WHIP and he pitched 117 innings.) Injured. Those numbers would have put him on the top of the Twins' rotation. I think that he will sign an one year plus a vesting option contract some place and that contract would be crazy incentive-filled. Like $3-5M base, $12-15M in incentives. Would the Twins pull the trigger, would he want to return? He might want to play for a contender, but he would definitely put rear ends on Target Field seats (will actually generate more $ than his contract) and will be better than Diamond and Albers added together...

12-8, 2.89 era, 196.1 ip, 56 bb, 183 k, 1.171 whip

I think that Plouffe at RF will be fine. Matter of fact I bet would be better than a certain former sucky third baseman, former SS, former first round pick was. I just cannot imagine the fun the centerfielder would have with Kubel and Willingham as OF bookends. They are both aging DHs who did not hit worth of anything last season.

ok. I am taking it back. Even stuff in the forums is not added to the navigation bar. Smells like a bug.

That would bring back David Price and then some, but I think that Meyer might actually end up being better than Price seeing them both pitch... As far as I am concerned, Meyer, along with Sano and Buxton are untouchables in the system.

Here is what I think is happening: The list (alphabetically) : Who is not like the other 3 (and is more like Kevin Correia/Nick Blackburn) ? Hind: he has an 87 mph FB. That is the one who the Twins will overpay and sign and pretend that they signed top talent...

Jack, here is a question for you (let's call it hypothetical situation) : Who would you rather have: Pitcher A who never pitched in the majors, is 25 (and let's say his birthday is today), had a record of 24-0 with 1.27 ERA in a foreign league that is likely a AAA equivalent competition, is projected to have an about 3.50 xFIP in the majors and would cost about $150 million for 5 years or Pitcher B who has been pitching in the majors for a while with a few All Star appearances and post-season, including World Series, experience, just turned 33, and in the majors in 2013 he finished 10-14 with an ERA of 4.70 and an xFIP of around 3.65. He struck out more per 9 in the majors than pitcher A did in his league. Let's say that he would cost around $25 million for 2 years with an additional option and incentives. If you could sign either (No problems, they both want to come and play for you. Cleared by doctors. Scouts say they are both great) Who would you rather sign? Thanks