Thrylos

Great read Got to argue about one thing though: What you call "scientific facts" above, you describe as "commonly perceived truth" below Different things. And every scientist will tell you that there is not such a thing as a "scientific fact". Just suggestions and likelihoods, that why every scientific paper and thesis is full with expressions such as "the data suggests...", "it likely..." etc, but not absolutes, because as you say, truth is: or the one that might fit the data you have the best, unless you discover something else... (and one's got to argue that Ryan's explanations up there are not that pretty.) But in the case in hand, the data suggests that Ryan for some reason is trying to make two conflicting situations (a. our philosophy is not to sign free agents because that is a bandaid aka a "bad thing" aka a "square peg", and b. let's go out and sign a bunch because this is what we need to do to improve the team, aka a "good thing" aka a "round hole") match. And they can with a very single explanation (aka the "truth"), that I really wish Ryan had the fortitude to go out and tell people: A. The best way to build a sustainable contender is mainly through the draft and international free agency, supplementing the major league team with strategically placed free agents and refreshing your talent pipeline with minor league talent you get by selling stars high (aka the MacPhail way) A1. The Twins as a team screwed up in this for a while. B. Thus, in order to compete in the near future, we have to go out and get free agents. But you got to have the fortitude to publicly admit A1 (i.e. that you have failed) for A and B to mesh... That's what I see as the most likely explanation here

Full disclosure: I have not seen Eades pitch yet. What I like about him: - plus to plus plus 95 mph FB that gets up to 98 and 3 average to above average secondary pitches. - very durable starter in College. - mid rotation projection as is. At this point, right after he was drafted, he is probably better than what Wimmers was and close to what Gibson was when he was drafted. If he develops one more out pitch, watch out. I could have potentially ranked him even higher, but I got to see him (and the other players in his draft class) play a bit.

Twins kind of guy: 87 mph FB and around 15% K% (in the NL facing Ps; If you subtract the pitchers he faced, it drops down to 13.5%). Diamond and Albers territory in both. I'd take Kris Johnson over all of them at the moment. I'd rather see Capuano at this point. And they do need a lefty in the rotation. Unless they get a number one/two type of a guy it makes no sense getting another veteran, unless they are shopping Correia.

Not quite A realistic expectation in his prime is a .300/.400/.600 line with 50 HRs. He already is a better defender than Cabrera.

You might find this interesting: I asked someone who watched (and broadcasted) every single game of both Sano's and Buxton's at Fort Myers this season to validate the Sano over Buxton, and here is this discussion. These guys are very close. A jump of power by Buxton or continuation of dominance in New Britain might switch the rankings for me. And since age is a wash (Sano is 7 months older, but half a level ahead), I'd go with the higher production guy at this point.

I just wonder how many times Marc Hulet watched these guys play or even followed them through the season (other than the top 3 perhaps), instead of looking up other top prospect lists like Mayo's and Callis'... I suspect not that many. That's why I really shy away from most of the national team top prospect lists. BA and mlb.com and minorleagueball.com (or whatever Sickels calls his site) are the exceptions. The rest are pretty derivitive... There were national lists this time last season having Michael in the top ten...

no and no and no All of those were taken in the MiLB (actually AAA) portion of the draft. So no $ exchanges hands, no return if not on the AAA roster (they can play anywhere in the system) and it is pretty much final. Different rules than the MLB portion of the Rule 5 draft. I think that overall it is a wash for the Twins. Lost a AA LHP and a A+ RHP and got a pair of the same AA players. I am not as high on Atherton as many (heck he was 24 years old in Cedar Rapids last season) and I am not going to even say that the Twins are conspiring against Australians, even though he is the 4th (or something like that) Aussie to bite the just in the organization this off-season

I got something even worse: #%*#@ Clay Matthews in a Packers' uniform. Unacceptable

Thanks, it was fun. Agreed with the options (other than the fact that used to remove someone from the 25-man, and needs to be on the 40 man). Did I indicate otherwise? I just don't think that Buxton (especially, because Sano would need to be added to the 40 man roster before the 2014 Rule 5 draft) would be added to the 40-man roster, unless he can contribute and the Twins would need him to contribute (i.e. if they are competing.) The might want to save that roster spot for someone else before that Rule 5 draft. Not a matter of options

Speaking of selectivity, there is a measure that most people don't talk about these days for some reason, called isoD (and it is analogous to isoP) for isolated discipline and it is OBP-BA. Buxton, Sano and Trout's isoDs have been around .090 all their careers. Sano's got higher in New Britain, but I think it is a SSS glitch because the BA got lower. So, if these guys hit around .300, their OBP will likely approach .400

Hitters' BABIPs are to be compared only to themselves, and unlike pitchers', which should be around .290, depending on who you are talking to, they are all over the map depending on the hitter. I compared Buxton's 2013 BABIP to his 2012 BABIP. Would be meaningless to compare to Sano's. Yes, they are great prospects. Top 5 in baseball as a matter of fact

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ---- I have been counting down the Twins top 40 prospects with descriptions and scouting reports of the players, their potential, their likely destinations for 2014, and in some cases the reasons why they were ranked where they were. These detailed reports for prospects 36-40 are here, 31-35 here, 26-30 here , 21-25 here, 16-20 here, 11-15 here, 6-10 here, and you can find all segments in reverse order here. I thought that a summary that contains my 1-40 list was in order, so there is perspective of all the rankings as a whole. A couple of things that I indicated in my earlier posts, regarding my rankings (pretty much verbatum) : There are a lot of prospect lists out there and they are all slightly different because different people value different qualities in a player, but they all serve a great singular purpose: to get to know the minor league players in an organization who otherwise would just be names in old draft boards and rarely seen box scores. I consider players who have played in the majors, as "graduating" from prospect status. You made big league money, you are not going to be in this list. Andrew Albers, Oswaldo Arcia, Chris Colabello, Chris Herrmann, Aaron Hicks, Kyle Gibson, Ryan Pressly, Caleb Thielbar and Michael Tonkin belong in this category. Secondly (and thirdly and fourthly) my criteria are slightly different that others' (e.g I value actual results at a higher competition level more than most) and the Twins have such a deep system, that some players who are listed in other lists and/or have been drafted in early rounds recently or have received large international signing bonuses will be conspicuously absent from this list. Trying to compile this list made me really appreciate the depth of the system this year. There are players who would have been on the top 20 list 3 and 4 years ago (a couple of names I can think of are Taylor Rogers, Luke Bard and JT Chargois) who did not crack my top 40 list. This is great news for the Twins. I am open to discussion about why and how, with the idea that it is just a point of view that is up to debate and not something that is either "right" or "wrong". Here is my twins 2014 off-season top 40 prospect list: 1. Miguel Sano RH, 3B, DOB: 5/11/1993, 6'3", 195 lbs. 2. Byron Buxton, RH, CF, DOB: 12/18/1993, 6'2", 189 lbs 3. Alex Meyer, RH, DOB: 1/3/1990, 6'9", 220 lbs. 4. Eddie Rosario LH, 2B, DOB: 9/28/1991, 6'0", 170 lbs. 5. Kohl Steward RHSP, DOB: 10/7/1994, 6'3", 195 lbs. 6. Jorge Polanco, SH, SS/2B, DOB: 7/5/1993, 5'11", 165 lbs. 7. Kennys Vargas SH, 1B, DOB: 8/1/1990, 6'5", 245 lbs 8. Jose Berrios RHSP, DOB: 5/27/1994, 6'1", 185 lbs 9. Trevor May RHSP, DOB: 9/23/1989, 6'5", 215 lbs 10. Stephen Gonsalves LHSP, DOB: 7/8/1994, 6'5", 190 lbs 11. Ryan Eades, RHSP, DOB: 12/15/1991, 6'2", 178 lbs 12. Felix Jorge, RHSP, DOB: 1/2/1994, 6'2", 170 lbs. 13. Travis Harrison, RH, 3B, DOB: 10/17/1992, 6'1", 215 lbs 14. Amauris Minier, SH, SS/3B, DOB: 1/30/1996 6'2", 190 lbs 15. DJ Baxendale RHSP, DOB: 12/8/1990, 6'2", 190 lbs 16. Max Kepler LH, OF/1B, DOB: 2/10/1993, 6'4", 180 lbs 17. Adam Walker, RH, OF, DOB: 10/18/1991, 6'5", 225 lbs 18. Lewis Thorpe LHSP, DOB: 11/23/1995, 6'1", 160 lbs. 19. Zach Jones, RHRP, DOB: 12/4/1990, 6'1", 185 lbs. 20. Brian Gilbert, RHRP, DOB: 8/12/1992, 6'1", 215 lbs. 21. Alexis Tapia RHSP, DOB: 8/10/1995, 6'2", 195 lbs 22. Matthew Koch RH, C, DOB: 11/21/1988, 6'0", 219 lbs 23. Jose Abreu RHSP, DOB: 6/13/1992, 5'11", 170 lbs. 24. DJ Hicks, LH, 1B, DOB: 4/2/1990, 6'5", 228 lbs 25. JD Williams, SH, OF, DOB: 11/20/1990, 5'11", 183 lbs 26. Tyler Duffey RHSP, DOB: 12/27/1990, 6'3", 225 lbs. 27. Niko Goodrum, SH, SS, DOB: 2/28/1992, 6'3", 170 lbs 28. Stuart Turner, RH, C, DOB: 12/27/1991, 6'2", 220 lbs 29. Josh Burris, RHSP, DOB: 11/28/1991, 5'10", 183 lbs. 30. Danny Santana, SH, SS, DOB: 11/7/1990, 5'11", 160 lbs 31. Mason Melotakis, LHSP, DOB: 6/28/1991. 6'2", 206 lbs 32. Deibinson Romero, RH, 3B/1B, DOB: 9/24/1986. 6'1", 215 lbs 33. Miguel Gonzalez, RHSP, DOB: 10/12/1994. 6'1", 180 lbs 34. Fernando Romero, RHSP, DOB: 12/24/1994. 6'0", 215 lbs 35. Adrian Salcedo, RHSP, DOB: 2/5/1991. 6'4", 175 lbs. 36. Zach Larson RH, OF, DOB: 10/8/1993. 6'2", 185 lbs 37. Logan Wade, SH, IF, DOB: 11/13/1991. 6'1", 190 lbs. 38. Tyler Grimes, RH, C, DOB: 7/3/1990. 5'10", 187 lbs. 39. Tyler Jones, RHRP, DOB: 9/5/1989. 6'4", 215 lbs. 40. Alex Wimmers, RHSP, DOB: 11/1/1988. 6'2", 195 lbs. One interesting thing (at least to me) is that all but Meyer and May were either drafted or signed as amateur free agents by the Twins. http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8534/8607105706_d344841a96_z.jpg

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php/2535-2014-off-season-Minnesota-Twins-top-40-prospect-countdown-1-5

Colon's 2/$20M means that Arroyo will likely cost 3/$36M, which is insane, and Garza 4/$60M. Looks like the Twins got a bargain with both Nolasco and Hughes... Also sounds like they improved their 2/$10M offer to Pelfrey...

They gave the equivalent of Mike Tonkin (maybe) to get LoMo (who is just 6 months older than Parmelee for comparison's sake.) I'd do that trade in a heartbeat to have him instead of Parmelee (and Doumit and Colabello) in the OF/DH rotation.

Need multiple choices on the poll. I put Hicks, but also think that Worley and Plouffe will bounce back.

Deduno, because Ryan said so. That said, Deduno just started long tossing. I have a hard time thinking that he will not start 2014 in the DL. Worley and Diamond are out of options so the one who shows up in better shape during ST will likely get the job (or the 2 jobs) Of course, I suspect that there will be some additional changes in the roster by ST and some of those pitchers will not be on it.

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ---- This is the eighth segment of the 2014 off-season Twins top 40 prospects, and we entered the top 10. Prospects 36-40 are here, 31-35 here, 26-30 here , 21-25 here, 16-20 here, 11-15 here, 6-10 here, and you can find all segments in reverse order here. This is not the last post in these. For completeness sake, I will have a summary post with all 40 tomorrow. The number 1 to 5 off-season 2014 Minnesota Twins prospects are: 5. Kohl Stewart RHSP, DOB: 10/7/1994, 6'3", 195 lbs. Stewart was drafted by the Minnesota Twins in the 1st round (4th overall) of the 2013 from St Pius X (Houston, TX) High School. Other than a single game started in Elizabethton (4 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 8 K) he started his pro career in the GCL at age 18, where he pitched in 7 games (4 GS) for 20 innings, walking 3 and striking out 16. He had a 1.69 ERA and 0.938 WHIP. Stewart has 4 pitches that he commands well: A plus to plus plus mid 90s fastball that peaks at 97-98, a close to plus mid to high 80s slider, an above average high 70s low 80s curveball and a plus low to mid 80s changeup, which is an impressive arsenal for an 18 year old. Stewart draws comparisons to another Houstonian hurler and the Twins would be ecstatic if he realizes half of that potential. He is still getting a feel on how to pitch, but this is expected for someone his age. Depending on how he shows in Spring Training, I will not be surprised if he starts 2014 at age 19 in Cedar Rapids' rotation. 4. Eddie Rosario LH, 2B, DOB: 9/28/1991, 6'0", 170 lbs. Eddie Rosario was drafted by the Twins in the 4th round of the 2010 draft from Rafael Lopez Landron (PR) High School as an OF. Rosario is one of those rare prospects who had success at every step of his pro career with his career slash line at .307/.358/.510 . His best season was his second pro, age 19 season, 2011 at Elizabethton, where he hit .337/.397/.670 with a career high 21 HRs in 67 games (298 PAs). He also swiped 17 bases that season. That was his last season as a full time center fielder before converted to a second baseman by the Twins due to their OF wealth. He played in Beloit in 2012, with his season cut short with a line drive on the face that broke his jaw bone. Despite that he finished the season with a .296/.345/.490 slash line. He moved up to Fort Myers in 2013 (age 21 season) where he hit .329/.377/.527 before moving to New Britain mid season. In New Britain he hit .284/.330/.412. In 2013 Rosario played in a career high 122 games with a career high 544 PAs. If that was not enough, he played at the AFL after this season and continued in the PWL the winter. Right before he started his appearance in the PWL he communicated to the press that he tested positive for prescription painkillers and was given a 50-day suspension, but at the time of this writing he has yet to be charged officially. Rosario has All-Star potential. A middle infielder with IsoP in the .200s before he hit drinking age, supplemented with good contact and decent plate discipline (he still needs some work on this tool) is rare. But the key word here is "infielder". Rosario is still mostly learning the position, but has shown a lot of promise and second base is probably the easiest position in the diamond defensively. For this, his impending suspension might be a blessing in disguise: He will give him some necessary rest after about 700 projected plate appearances this year and will give him a couple months in extended spring training to work on his fielding while serving his suspension. He will likely start 2014 in New Britain. 3. Alex Meyer, RH, DOB: 1/3/1990, 6'9", 220 lbs. Meyer was drafted in the first round of the 2011 MLB draft by the Washington Nationals out of the University of Kentucky and traded to the Twins last off-season (2012) for Denard Span. I am not really going to give detailed statistics for the top 3 Twins' prospects, just some information and justification for the rankings. I assume that everyone knows enough about them at this point. Meyer was ranked number 83 prospect in baseball by MLB.com before the 2012 season and number 59 from Baseball America and number 40 by MLB.com before last season. Believe it or not, Meyer is near to major league ready after just 2 professional seasons and at certain teams he would be in their 2014 MLB rotations. His repertoire includes 3 pitches: a plus plus fastball that averages 94-96 and hits 98-100, a plus to plus plus hard slider at high 80s with a sharp break and an average changeup, which right now is a complementary pitch. An likely comparable would be a right hand version of Randy Johnson, because their pitching styles and their offerings are so similar. Developing that changeup will make Meyer truly dominant. His ceiling is a top of the rotation perennial All Star starter. Likely will start 2014 (his age 24 season) in Rochester. He is not on the 40 man roster, but may still get a September call up depending on how the Twins and he is doing. 2. Byron Buxton, RH, CF, DOB: 12/18/1993, 6'2", 189 lbs Byron Buxton was drafted by the Minnesota Twins in the first round (second overall) of the 2012 draft. He was rated number 10 prospect in Baseball by Baseball America and number 19 by MLB.com before the 2013 season. He likely is thought of as the top Twins' prospect by most people. Why he is not here? Because I think that Sano is a better player right now, because I saw him strike out in three straight change ups last spring training , because he had not a stellar performance in the AFL, and because at the same level (Fort Myers) at the same season, Miguel Sano (who is just 7 months older) was a better player. As a matter of fact, other than the Midwest League (and this could very well be Beloit vs Cedar Rapids,) Sano's production was better than Buxton's in the same stops. Another issue with Buxton's production was that his OPS dropped more than 100 points (from .990 to .887) from Cedar Rapids to Fort Myers. And his BABIP in both stops was a ridiculous .402 and .404, which is about 100 points higher than the combined .303 among the 2 rookie stops the previous 2 seasons. I don't want to rain on anyone's parade, just color me a tad worried here and not ready to jump in the top prospect in the system bandwagon, when Sano is still a prospect. On the other hand, Buxton is more of a complete player, having better defense and speed tools than Sano. He has been compared to Mike Trout, but his overall performance in the Midwest League in the first half of 2013 at the same age (19) was better than Trout's in the same league at the same age. What is Buxton's ceiling? Rickey Henderson with a stronger arm and fewer SB (just because they do not steal this much these days.) He could be a fixture at CF and an All-Star for many years. But he has to prove himself against AA pitching first and will likely get the chance starting his age 20 2014 season in New Britain. Twins' fans are wishing for a September call up to the majors, but I think 2015 is more realistic, unless he tears the Eastern League apart and the Twins are competing in September (and both would be great things.) 1. Miguel Sano RH, 3B, DOB: 5/11/1993, 6'3", 195 lbs. The Twins signed Miguel Sano as a free agent from the Dominican Republic on October of 2009 to a $3.15 million signing bonus. Before the 2010 season Sano was ranked as the 94th prospect in baseball by BA, before the 2011 season the 60th, before the 2012 season the 18th by BA and 23th by MLB.com and before last season the 9th by BA and 12th by MLB.com In the Byron Buxton entry, I talked about why I think that Sano is a better prospect, but I shouldn't have need to, if I just iterated what I wrote here last August, arguing that he should be the top prospect in baseball after this season, for a great reason. Miguel Sano is number one as far as I am concerned. And I am not going to compare him with Miguel Cabrera, like a lot of people do, because a. Miguel Cabrera is a disliked Tiger and b. I think that Sano will be better. So I will compare him to a beloved Twins' player: Harmon Killebrew. And those nit pickers who think that Sano's K% of around 25% on each of his age 17 to 20 seasons, need to go no further than realize that the Killer's K% in his age 19 to 22 seasons were 34.8%, 35.5%, 24.2%, and 36.4% respectively. There is further nit picking on Sano's defense. I am sure that many of nit pickers picked on his fellow third baseman's when he was coming up as a Senator, but he ended up alright by any measure. And next season will be Sano's age 21 season. He will like start 2014 in Rochester with a potential September callup depending on his and the Twins' performance. He is not on the 40-man roster, so a 2015 MLB appearance, like Buxton, is more likely. I was recently asked (after this was up) whether Sano's elbow issues might change my opinion on the rankings. The answer is categorically no, the same way that Buxton's shoulder issues do not change my opinion on him. If any of those injuries are catastrophic, it might be a different story. My original thoughts were that both Sano and Buxton will not be in the majors until at least 2015, so even that time table is not affected.... http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3811/9382321846_18764053ef_z.jpg Next: Summary of all 1-40.

You should check his career splits before you blame Coors Field: Pomeranz is one of those Ps who did better in Coors Field 4.40 ERA/1.493 WHIP vs 6.20 ERA/1.607 WHIP away (15 GS each) That's what happens with prospects... Some of them have bad seasons and drop. Like Pomeranz. Can he be good? Sure. Was he rushed? Probably. But BA rankings do not really matter than much.

I guess BA undervalues Pomeranz as well, because it has him ranked as the 13th best 25 and under player in the Rockies' system. Diamond-like performances will make you drop in value like a rock... Last time I checked, a current Twins prospect is the current #1 and another the current #3. Speaking about what BA rankings mean, here are some former Twins' top 100 rankings: Not Current but Willie Banks was 13th in 1990, Willie Banks and Rich Garces were 15th and 16th in 1991, Pat Mahomes 25th in 1992 , Restovich (not a pitcher, but) 26th in 2000. Those worked really well...

Ryan was interviewed the other day and said that the last year or so Krivsky is the one who starts the trade negotiations and Anthony is the one who does the FA and contract negotiations and he oversees the process. I would not doubt that something similar was happening when Smith was the GM, with Smith even more removed than Ryan from baseball opinions...

Yeah. And the Rockies get some $$$ too. Twins' equivalent (if not more, because of MLB-readiness and team control years) is something like May and Darnell. I'd do that in a heartbeat.

I would have no issue with signing Arroyo as a number 3. Now that Hughes has this role, Arroyo is redundant. With Nolasco a number 2, Correia a number 4 and a bunch of people fighting for number 5, the Twins need a number 1. Push Nolasco up to that spot and you got problems.

Allegedly Ryan was not willing to give away that second round draft pick for a starter, I just cannot see him giving it away for Drew plus paying him 3/$36M or something. I just don't see it, but strange things happen...