Thrylos

He does, but you are preaching to the choir here He'd be my starting SS over Santana every day (have seen both of them playing enough to get the feeling that 2014 was an aberration for Santana; and his glove at SS is inconsistent)

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ---- A great article was written today by Jonathan Judge and published at The Hardball Times, called FIP in Context, introducing an new metric, called cFIP, or contest-adjusted FIP that attempts to "estimate the pitcher’s true pitching talent during a particular season". Always interested in new pitching metrics development, and not only because I have partaken myself in the endeavor. this is an interesting one, albeit much more complex than PE and xPE. It also correlates well with SIERA, which along with xPE (because it is easy to calculate) are my 2 favorite predictive metrics regarding pitching performance. I will not steal Jonathan's thunder, please read that excellent article, but I will present his framework and then present his work regarding the Twins' pitchers (he calculated cFIPs for every pitcher in the league the past 4 years, including Jamie Carroll.) The cFIP scale is normalized to 100 for average, just like OPS+ and ERA+, but it is a minus scale, meaning that less is better, like ERA and FIP and SIERA and all similar metrics. Should have been called cFIP-, but that is a different story. So 100 is average and less is better. Jonathan Judge has the following buckets of pitchers, according their cFIP: <70 nbsp="" p="" superb="">70–85 Great 85–95 Above Avg. 95–105 Average 105–115 Below Avg. 115–130 Bad 130+ Awful Let's put the 2014 Minnesota Twins' pitching staff in those buckets. For reference, players that are not still with the team are in (parenthesis). I am also including the 2015 cFIP numbers of the newcomers this off-season. They have an asterisk behind their names, that would have made Barry Bonds jealous: Superb: Phil Hughes 70 Great: Glen Perkins 74 Above Avg.: Casey Fien 89 Tim Stauffer 91* (Yohan Pino 94) Average: Aaron Thompson 98 Logan Darnell 99 Ricky Nolasco 100 Trevor May 101 Ervin Santana 101* Michael Tonkin 102 Caleb Thielbar 103 Blaine Boyer 103* Lester Oliveros 105 Below Avg.: (Jared Burton 106) (Kris Johnson 106) (Sam Deduno 107) Stephen Pryor 108 Kyle Gibson 109 (Anthony Swarzak 111) A. J. Achter 112 Ryan Pressly 112 Brian Duensing 114 Tommy Milone 114 Bad: (Matt Guerrier 116) (Kevin Correia 119) Awful: Mike Pelfrey 132 A few obsevations: According to this, the Twins had a superb pitcher, Phil Hughes, a great pitcher, Glen Perkins, and 13 total (I am not counting the newcomers) pitchers (that is a full MLB staff, ladies and gentlemen) who were average, above average, great or superb. Mike Pelfrey (who tied for worst in the majors in this metric) was the only awful pitcher in the Twins' staff But, The Twins had the second worst bullpen in the majors according to xFIP and SIERA and the third worst rotation in the majors, according to SIERA (fourth according to xFIP) Other than Yohan Pino, who was an unfortunate loss, The Twins' front office seems to behave pretty well according to this metric: The pitchers they let go, are all bellow average or beyond. They did keep a few below average pitchers, and they did keep Mike Pelfrey, who is better suited for the pen and was injured. Other than Duensing who had a down season, the below average pitchers are all young. Big issue in the big picture here: The Twins had a whole staff worth (13) pitchers who were average and above, yet they managed to be almost at the bottom of the league in pitching. Those things seem pretty conflicting. Let's dig deeper and check out the 2013 Twins' cFIP buckets that Jonathan Judge calculated. For reference purposes, players who left after 2013 are in parenthesis and I added Ricky Nolasco (with an asterisk) as well Superb: Glen Perkins 63 Casey Fien 67 Great: Nobody Above Avg.: Jared Burton 91 Caleb Thielbar 91 Ricky Nolasco 93* Michael Tonkin 94 Average: Anthony Swarzak 97 Brian Duensing 97 (Shairon Martis 105) Below Avg.: Mike Pelfrey 109 (Liam Hendriks 110) Ryan Pressly 111 (Cole DeVries 114) (Andrew Albers 115) Bad: Kevin Correia 116 Samuel Deduno 116 (Josh Roenicke 118) (P.J. Walters 122) (Vance Worley 124) Kyle Gibson 125 (Scott Diamond 129) Awful: Nobody This is some really interesting data. Here is what I see: I think that I either underestimated the Twins' Front Office use of metrics in personnel decisions building the team or Jack Goin should buy me a beer next week at Hammond Stadium, because this tool really describes what the Twins are doing regarding personnel decisions: The tend to get rid of below average and below pitchers and add average and above pitchers. Hughes was around 100, but I did not add him here. This is a stop the presses type of statement, me coming close to shake my head in approval of what the front office is doing... This tells a tale of 2 cities: All the Average and above pitchers were relievers. All starters were bellow average or worse but not awful. And Pelfrey was the best. Enough with 2013. What happened in 2014, comparatively to 2013? Every single reliever from Perkins down regressed, while the starters (save hurt Pelfrey and replacement level Correia) improved. This is fundamentally interesting, because it kinds of breaks some old school axioms. And the one excuse for the decline of the Twins' pen in 2014 was that, they were worse because they were too tired because the rotation was so bad. This data, turns this upside down: The Twins 2013 rotation was worse than the Twins 2014 rotation, and the 2014 Twins' pen made the 2014 Twins rotation worse. So a bad pen can make a rotation worse. Like a reliever coming in with 2 outs and the bases loaded to give a grand slam and 4 runs to the starter. What a concept... I am starting to really like this metric... So (and this is really hard for me to say) the Front Office did some improvements for 2014, that actually seem to be supported by real data, but the pitching tanked compared to 2013. Why? I'd love to hear your theories after this, and this is what I am thinking: Look at that 2014 list up there. In your mind, normalize it for playing time. That would shift the buckets heavier to the below average. How many games did Pino or May start compared to Pelfrey, Correia, Deduno? Why was Burton used in high leverage situations over better relievers? Yes. Do the same normalization for playing time for the 2013 data. And you are looking at evidence of what has been written here loudly and clear about mismanagement of the Twins' pitching staff by Gardy and Andy for ages. This has to be part of the reason cause for the pen decline in 2014, and the root causes are described within there. And they have to be fixed. And, yes, metrics can be devised to normalize and approximate defense independent pitching, but I have not yet seen one that could estimate the madness of the Twins' 2014 OF (what is the range factor of a bucket?) This actually makes me more hopeful, because it seems like the Twins are doing an effort to address some things. So, what do you say?

Yeah, it's tough. Especially for players with College education like Grimes; they do have alternatives. I hope that the whole minor league salary situation gets fixed. You cannot have whole low level teams making less money than a single MLB rookie's minimum salary. And it is on the players' union as well...

We shall see if he does the same thing if a veteran makes a mistake. That was part of the issue with Gardy. He had his pets who could do no wrong... Btw, the first base coach is at fault as well. He should have kept track of the outs and discuss strategy with Hicks based on the outs. Apparently he did not do that. Hope that Molly had a talk with him too...

If Sano, Rosario and Polanco start the season in AA, someone should be fired. They have zero to prove at that level.

Wrong. He even links to the Trevor Plouffe's fangraph's page that has his positive WAR (aka being above replacement level) in the last 3 seasons. I bet that the guy has seen less than 2 Twins' games last season other than maybe games that involved his team and I bet he has never seen any of the 5 prospects he mentioned play a game in person. Cookie cutter garbage like this are just not worthy. Sorry. And Berrios has about as many chances of making the Twins in 2015 as you and I. Really hate what those websites do with teams they do not know (or care to know.) I wish fangraphs outsourced this to someone like Seth, the same way BA outsourced the Twins' list to Mike Berardino. What they do is the equivalent of anyone here trying to do the same thing for the Rockies or Diamondbacks or something. Meaningless derivative junk. Sorry.

The change up is minimally evasive pitch. Exactly same motion as the fast ball shoulder, arm, wrist etc. Just the grip is different. So it is not like try to learn a slider that you got different forearm, elbow, wrist mechanics that the fastball. Just grab the ball differently and do your thing. And it is a pitch that puts minimum stress on someone's arm. Great time to get a feel for the pitch, esp. for the starters.

Ask them if the feeling in the clubhouse is different than it was last spring.

I am using the cutoff that b-r is using. Those numbers are their B-R 2014 ages +1.

True. But this is not a young roster. Here is how it projects: C - 31 1B - 32 2B - 28 SS - 24/26 3B - 29 LF - 24 CF - 25/28 RF - 39 DH - 24 SP - 29 SP - 32 SP - 32 SP - 27 SP - Milone 28 RP - Perkins 32 RP - Duensing 32 RP - Fien 31 RP - Thielbar 28 RP - Stauffer 33 RP - Pelfrey 31 RP - ??? Only 4 players under 28 years old. The youngest 24. Not good. Really.

Cheap? Was he the manager who played catchers, first basemen and DHs at the OF? And short stops? Was he the manager who played 11 LFs, 7 CFs, and 10 RFs the season? The fact that he is not around, will improve the team. This is a legitimate point, supported with data.

$110 M for 2.5 good years with another lost and the last 2 iffy. Quickly this is becoming a very bad investment to the rate of (best case) $24M+ per year of play...

That number is 3 (as far as relievers at AAA & AA go) : Achter, Pryor and Oliveros, if you are looking at under 3.50 ERA and under 1.200 WHIP (and maybe you can add Pressly, 2.98 ERA, 1.260 WHIP.) All 4 are getting a look. I'd add May to that category. There is not that much in the high minors... The wealth of the Twins' good relievers are in A and high A.

That was actually a seven man bullpen with 4 starters and the seventh guy being the swing starter. Before that it was 4 + 6. These days no teams like the idea to go with 4 starters pitching every 5 day, no matter how many days off there are. I think that it is a good model, because you only need 4 and not 5 good starters. Also, I really thing that the swing man (or emergency starter) could very well be a rotating spot: Get the hottest AAA starter up to pitch that extra game, then replace him with a AAA reliever, bring the hottest AAA starter (doesn't have to be the same) to pitch another etc. Then you do use your 40 man roster better and do not have extra starters sitting around when not needed, but have available relievers...

Perkins has a down year like Duensing did. The problem is that if your best reliever is "not great but okay" and you go downhill from there, you are going to have the kind of bullpen the Twins had last season...

Got to dig for those, but my gut feeling says that this is the case. Probably their average is slightly below Duensing's 2014 FBv.

Thanks. Part 2 is already up here.

Agreed. Slowey was a better starter than Wade Davis (until Gardy n' Andy ruined him ) but he would make a horrible reliever. My argument with Pelfrey having what you say the "right profile" as a reliever has to do with his stuff. Like Nathan and Perkins he has a couple of good pitches and that will take you nowhere as a starter, so he has to supplement that with junk. Very hittable junk, like Nathan and Perkins did as starters. So, getting rid of that junk and relying to his strengths he could be a good reliever. And his FB as a starter is a good 3-4 mph faster than Nathan's and Perkins' as starters. That was the train of thought here...

Funny thing about this: Ryan today (again) was talking about how "Meyer and Berrios are knocking on the door". There are 3 pitchers (and Gibson) with multi-year contract ahead of them. I don't see Gibson going away. I don't see Hughes going away, I don't see Santana going away (yet.) The math is so there...

I am being realistic, based on what the Twins have been doing with him and that a. they did not add him to the 40 man roster (as discussed, but that is correctable) but, even more importantly, they did not invite him to the major league camp in Spring Training. Should they? Heck yeah. But I am trying to be realistic here. How do I feel about Burdi? I ranked him as the Twins' 10th prospect and wrote this (among other things) here in my prospect rankings: A high 90s nasty fastball that often reaches triple digits, complemented by a low 90s even nastier slider, and there is no wonder than many, including the author of this, were wondering why Burdi did not start his pro career in the majors, since he is the best RHRP in the Twins organization at any level, since he was drafted. But this is not the way the Twins are thinking. The 22 year old had nothing to prove in a league whose average age was 2 years + older. He will likely have nothing to prove in Chattanooga and be called to the majors by mid-season to serve as the Twins' set up man or even the closer. He is not on the 40 man roster and has not been invited to the MLB Spring Training camp as of yet. So you are really preaching to the choir about Burdi here But for some reason, Ryan will not do it and I did not want to go into what ifs, but trying to be realistic within the parameters they have set.

Actually Herrmann played C, 3B and mostly OF at College. Interestingly he was drafted as a "C/3B" officially and played only in the outfield his first season in the pros (that E-town team had Streich, Pinto and Rams as well), and mostly OF his second... Played a single pro game at third base in New Britain in 2012. So, really, he knew those positions before. But he does look like a catcher and he is a good one. I think that all this screwing around with other positions at this point does not do him good. He is pretty Parmelean at the OF. Solid build and pretty slow. He can catch balls that are going to him, but he will be like Doumit... Do you call that "versatility"? Feel free, but...

Yes because they allow him to be full of it and they do not hold him accountable for losing. Maybe this will be that season, if they continue down that path and the season ticket sales continue to go south

By no means an 80 win season by any team that does not want to be treated as losers could be considered a "success".

Robinson was integral part of the 2012 and 2013 Cardinal teams (as a late inning defensive specialist, PR etc) that went to the NLCS and WS respectively. So if he is good for a competitive team's bench, he should be good for the Twins' bench.

Santana was pretty bad with the glove at CF and was part of the problem. Benson was with the Rangers, then with the Marlins last season and had knee surgery finally. He signed with the Braves this season and might make that club. Sounds pretty healthy. Mastro is with Toronto as their AAAA guy. The Twins have effectively replaced him with Shane Robinson.