Schmoeman5

Who says no to some of the following trade options?
#1  Pablo Lopez and Christian vazquez to Red Sox for Tristan Casas and Miguel Blies:
Why it works for Twins:
They are able ot clear $32M from the books while at the same time solving their 1B issue.  they get a prospect with MASSIVE upside who was showing big potential before injuries in 2024. This also allows for further moves with our infield depth.  BU ta clear 1B upgrade and clearing $32M is that too much to pass up?
Why it works for Red Sox:
Red Sox are having internal discussion of moving Rafael Devers to 1B, and Casas is definitely expendable in that case. Red Sox need another starter and can easily take on teh $10 owed Vazquez.
 
#2  Renew trade acquaintences with Miami:  and Brooks Lee, Eduard Julien, Gabriel Gonzalez to Miami in exchange for Sandy Alcantara
Why it works for Twins:
Th eTwins once again dip into IF depth to acquire a starter from Miami.Twins still have Lewis, Correa,  Miranda (Casas if make that deal), the supposed near MLB ready 5 tool prospect in Keaschall, plus utility guys in Martin and Castro. Maybe the Twins can do with with keeping one of teh three and/or swapping out with another top 25 Twins prospect.  Alcantara is coming off TJ, but he is nearly 2 years removed and all accounts are he is back to his previous injury self. Twins still get 3 years of control 
Why it Works for Miami:
If Miami is in yet another "redo" mode, do they want to keep an "older player" at his price? They have already moved Luzardo for 2 prospects. Would they move a more expensive starter for THREE quality prospects/young players?? They coudl get 3 young MLB ready (or near) positional starters.
 
#3 is a FA edition of "who says no"?  instead of a team, it is Twins or the FA
Twins sign BOTH Justin Verlander & Max Scherzer to matching 3 year deals averagign about $15M per with some built in protections for both.
Something liek $12M for year 1. Year 2 is $15M with mutual options. Player opt out options, or Twins can buyout at $3M (this basically means it is a $15 year year 1 deal). Year 3 at $18M but contains vesting options based on innings or performance in year 2. 
 
Why this works for teh Twins:
These are low risk moves. there is built in protections with the mutual option and the vesting option for years 2 and 3. While neither can legitimately be counted on for 30+ starts, they would both be great mentors for Ryan, Ober, and the rest of our young pitchers. This gives us 6 deep with Ryan, Ober, (Lopez, or Alcantara if we do/dont do any of those other moves) Verlander, Scherzer, SWR. plus our ready/near ready young guys means we would have the depth to ease them along or deal with injuries.  From a financial perspective they will sell tickets. and if Verlander performs and we can retain him we have the chance at the run for 300.
 
Why this works for JV/Max:
Neither pitcher is set to get any offer above say $12M on even a 1 year deal due to age and recent injury. This give them the opportunity to maximize their value and provide flexibility on their end.
 
 

Revolutionizing Baseball: A Schedule and Playoff Format for Maximum Excitement
Baseball has always been a game of strategy, endurance, and tradition, but with evolving fan expectations, it’s time to rethink how the sport is structured. What if every game and every series carried significant weight? Imagine a league where injuries are minimized, travel is reduced, and engagement soars. With a reimagined schedule and playoff format, MLB can deliver a product that’s better for players, fans, and the future of the game.
⚾ Baseball Needs a Refresh
In its current state, MLB struggles with two major issues:
Diluted Engagement: A 162-game marathon can make games feel less urgent, particularly early in the season or during mismatched series. Player Fatigue and Injuries: Last season, fans missed seeing Shohei Ohtani pitch, Ronald Acuña Jr.’s electric play, and Mike Trout’s brilliance due to injuries exacerbated by relentless schedules. It’s clear: baseball deserves a format that prioritizes meaningful games while keeping stars on the field.
📅 A Cooler Schedule: Why Every Series Matters
Under the new schedule, teams play five-game series against every other team in the league, reducing travel and creating a playoff-like atmosphere for every matchup. Here’s what it looks like:
Sunday Doubleheaders: Weekly doubleheaders cap off the series, creating excitement-packed weekends. Two Halves, One Goal: The season is divided into two halves, with playoff spots awarded to the teams with the best series records in each league after 16 series. This format means:
Fewer travel days (down to ~30 trips/season from 45+). More recovery time with predictable off-days. Fans are rewarded with more meaningful games, especially on weekends. 📊 Old vs. New: Why This Format Wins
Here’s how the new schedule stacks up against the old one:
Metric Old Schedule New Schedule Travel Days/Season ~45 trips (~1 every 3.6 days) ~30 trips (~1 every 5.3 days) Games/Week 6-7 games, no scheduled rest 5 games, with built-in rest Doubleheaders Rare and unscheduled Weekly on Sundays Fan Engagement Peaks during marquee games Higher across every weekend Player Fatigue High due to constant travel Lower, with structured rest Visualize the Difference:
Below is a dynamic comparison chart highlighting how the new schedule improves on key metrics:
 
   
🏆 A Playoff Format That Engages Fans Year-Round
Borrowing inspiration from the NBA, this new system injects excitement into both halves of the season:
Midseason Wild Card Berth: After the first 16 five-game series, the team in each league with the best series record earns a Wild Card playoff spot. This keeps the first half of the season thrilling and competitive. Second-Half Wild Card Berth: The same process applies for the season’s second half, ensuring that even struggling teams have a chance to rebound. If a Wild Card winner finishes with a higher playoff seed through overall performance, the berth shifts to the next eligible team. This rewards consistency without compromising fairness.
Why It Works:
Fans stay engaged all season, as every game carries playoff implications. Teams can reset and refocus for the second half, ensuring excitement from start to finish. 📡 MLB Sunday Ticket: The Future of Fan Engagement
Weekends are when sports dominate the conversation. MLB could launch a subscription service, MLB Sunday Ticket, to make Sunday doubleheaders unmissable.
Features:
Live Commentary Across Games: A dedicated commentator highlights key moments from every game, including walk-offs, no-hitters, and playoff-clinching performances. Real-Time Alerts: Subscribers get notified of milestone moments, like home run chases or record-breaking plays. Exclusive Content: Behind-the-scenes footage and player interviews add depth to the fan experience. The Result: A service that increases ratings, revenue, and fan accessibility, making MLB Sundays as iconic as NFL Sundays.
🚀 Why This Is a Win for Everyone
For Players: Reduced travel and predictable rest days keep stars healthier and on the field. For Fans: Every game and series feels significant, with more opportunities to see stars in action. For the League: Higher engagement boosts attendance, ratings, and revenue, ensuring the sport thrives for generations. Conclusion: A New Era for Baseball
Baseball is built on tradition, but evolution is key to its future. By embracing this new schedule and playoff format, MLB can deliver a league where every game matters, every series is meaningful, and fans are more connected than ever. With healthier players, a competitive structure, and innovations like MLB Sunday Ticket, this vision offers something for everyone.
So, what do you think, Twins fans? Could this be the bold step baseball needs to become the most exciting sport in the world?
 

... and why is he on the 40 man roster over Kala'i Rosario?
Granted Rosario is by no means a cant miss prospect, and there is a possibility that he will not be claimed in the Rule 5 draft,  Why the heck do you send him to AFL  and then not protect him?
With no disrespect to Helman...
Helman is 28 tears old,  will not crack opening day roster when we have Buxton, Larnach, Wallner, and even Austin Martin? and if you believe reports of us being linked to Tyler Oniel there is no immediate need, and at 28 he is not the future.  By mid year Emmanual Rodriguez coudl be ready, and by next year Walker Jenkins, again confirming there is not a need for a 28 year old as part of the future.
And again while being drafted in Rule 5 is no guarantee, after playing in 67 games at AA last year, and in the AFL the last 2 years he is definitley in the window of possibility!!  and we risk that for Helman?

This offseason, the Minnesota Twins face critical needs in both pitching and first base depth. To address these gaps, the Twins should consider pursuing two key acquisitions: first, signing veteran pitcher Jack Flaherty, who, despite recent injury concerns, has the potential to provide significant upside and bolster the rotation. His addition would bring experienced arm strength and depth to a staff that has struggled with consistency. Coupled with Flaherty, the Twins should target outfielder Anthony Santander, whose power and offensive capabilities could provide an impactful boost to the lineup. Santander’s ability to contribute both as a consistent bat and a reliable outfielder would enhance the team's offensive depth and add a right-handed power threat to complement their existing hitters. In terms of roster moves, the Twins should evaluate their current roster to make room for these additions, which might involve trading or non-tendering some existing players to clear payroll and roster spots. Additionally, they could look into re-signing Max Kepler to maintain outfield depth and versatility, ensuring the lineup remains balanced. These strategic moves would not only address immediate needs but also position the Twins for a competitive season by enhancing their pitching depth and solidifying their lineup with a proven offensive asset. 
     1 Jack Flaherty
 
As we all know, Jack Flaherty was traded to the Dodgers at the trade deadline and has since been exceptional, posting a remarkable 3.08 ERA and an impressive 0.90 WHIP. His impact has been notable, as evidenced by the Dodgers’ 5-3 record in games he started, which translates to a notable 6.38 winning percentage. This performance underscores Flaherty's ability to significantly contribute to a rotation, showcasing his potential as a top-tier pitcher. For the Minnesota Twins, acquiring Flaherty would be a transformative move, as he would seamlessly slot in behind Pablo López in the rotation. Flaherty’s recent success and established track record make him an ideal candidate to bolster the Twins' pitching staff. His ability to deliver high-quality starts would effectively serve as a replacement for Sonny Gray, providing a similar blend of experience and effectiveness. This addition would be crucial in stabilizing the rotation, offering the Twins a formidable one-two punch at the top with López and Flaherty.
The potential rotation with Flaherty could look like this: Pablo López would anchor the staff with his reliable and consistent performance, followed by Jack Flaherty, whose recent form suggests he could be a game-changer. The Twins could then round out the rotation with other key pitchers, possibly including Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, who have shown promise but would benefit from the added stability Flaherty brings. This mix would provide a strong foundation, combining the experience and effectiveness of Flaherty with the youthful potential of Ryan and Ober. Additionally, the presence of Flaherty would offer valuable depth, allowing the Twins to better manage their pitching workload throughout the season and reduce the risk of overworking any single arm.
Overall, integrating Flaherty into the rotation would not only enhance the team's pitching depth but also elevate their competitive edge. The Twins would benefit from a more balanced and formidable rotation, setting the stage for a more successful campaign and positioning themselves as strong contenders in the league.
Our Rotation with him
1. Pablo Lopez
2 Jack Flahrety
3 Joe Ryan
4  Bailey Ober
5 Simeon Woods Richardson
 
1. Anthony Santander
As we look ahead to the offseason, targeting Anthony Santander could be a transformative move for the Minnesota Twins, addressing significant needs in their lineup and enhancing their overall offensive capabilities. Santander, who has been a standout performer for the Baltimore Orioles, brings an impressive blend of power, consistency, and experience that could prove invaluable for the Twins. Over the 2024 season, Santander has demonstrated his prowess at the plate with a robust .275 batting average, 25 home runs, and 80 RBIs. These statistics reflect his ability to drive in runs and deliver clutch hits, making him a formidable force in any lineup. His offensive output would represent a substantial upgrade for the Twins, especially in a lineup that could benefit from an additional right-handed power bat.
Integrating Santander into the Twins' lineup would fill a crucial void and provide a significant boost to their offensive production. His presence in the outfield would likely be most impactful in right field, where his strong arm and power-hitting capabilities would be valuable assets. Santander’s ability to consistently drive in runs and hit for power would not only enhance the Twins’ offensive depth but also offer protection for their key hitters, such as Byron Buxton and Luis Arraez. His addition would allow for a more balanced and potent lineup, giving the Twins a greater ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities and apply pressure on opposing pitchers.
With Santander in the fold, the Twins' lineup could look significantly more dynamic. Byron Buxton would continue to anchor center field, leveraging his elite defensive skills and game-changing speed. Santander would slot into right field, providing a powerful and reliable presence. In addition, his arrival could enable the Twins to better utilize Max Kepler, potentially allowing him to assume a more flexible role, such as a fourth outfielder or part of a platoon situation. This flexibility would be advantageous in managing player workloads and mitigating the risk of injuries, especially considering Kepler’s recent struggles and injury history. The versatility provided by Santander would also open up strategic options for the coaching staff, enabling more effective matchups and lineup adjustments based on opposing pitchers and game situations.
Beyond his offensive and defensive contributions, Santander's signing would also have a ripple effect on the team's overall strategy. His presence would likely lead to a reconfiguration of the lineup, with potential shifts in batting order to maximize offensive production. For instance, Santander could be positioned in a key spot in the middle of the order, offering protection for other power hitters and helping to drive in runs more effectively. This would result in a more balanced and formidable lineup, which could significantly improve the Twins' performance and competitiveness.
Furthermore, Santander’s addition would provide a more stable and consistent offensive threat, which is crucial for a team looking to contend in a highly competitive league. His experience and track record of success would offer a reliable option in crucial game situations, helping to alleviate some of the offensive pressure on other players. Additionally, his strong performance metrics could help elevate the Twins' overall team batting statistics, contributing to a more robust and high-scoring offense.
In summary, adding Anthony Santander to the Minnesota Twins' roster would be a highly strategic move, addressing critical needs and enhancing the team's offensive depth. His combination of power, consistency, and experience would provide a significant boost to the lineup, allowing for greater flexibility and effectiveness in both offensive and defensive strategies. This move would not only improve the Twins’ immediate competitive prospects but also strengthen their overall roster, positioning them as a formidable contender in the upcoming season.
 
 
 Move David Festa to the Bullpen and Sending Zebby Matthews Down
As the Minnesota Twins continue their quest for postseason success, managing their pitching staff effectively is crucial. Recent discussions have centered on two key decisions: moving David Festa to the bullpen and sending Zebby Matthews down to the minors. These moves could have significant implications for the team’s performance and roster management as they navigate the demands of a competitive season.
 
David Festa, a promising young right-hander, has shown flashes of potential since his debut. Known for his electric fastball and ability to generate strikeouts, Festa initially entered the starting rotation with high expectations. However, his performance has been inconsistent, characterized by bouts of control issues and difficulty maintaining effectiveness over extended innings. His ERA has fluctuated, and his WHIP suggests challenges in keeping runners off base. These factors have prompted the Twins to reassess his role within the team.
 
Shifting Festa to the bullpen could be a strategic move to maximize his strengths and mitigate his weaknesses. As a reliever, Festa would benefit from shorter, high-intensity outings that play to his fastball’s effectiveness and strikeout potential. Bullpen roles often require pitchers to focus on getting crucial outs in high-leverage situations, and Festa’s ability to handle short bursts of high-pressure pitching aligns well with this requirement. Additionally, by moving to the bullpen, Festa would avoid the challenges of maintaining effectiveness over multiple innings, potentially leading to improved performance and consistency.
Festa’s transition to the bullpen would add depth to a unit that is vital for managing games late and securing wins. His presence could provide the Twins with a high-octane option in late innings, capable of providing a significant boost to the relief corps. His ability to generate strikeouts would be particularly valuable in high-leverage situations, where his fastball can be a game-changer. The adjustment could also allow the Twins to better manage their starting pitchers’ innings and workloads, reducing the strain on the rotation and maintaining overall team effectiveness.
 
Zebby Matthews, another young pitcher in the Twins' system, has also faced challenges in his recent outings. Despite showing potential, Matthews has struggled with consistency, leading to concerns about his readiness for major league competition. His performances have been marked by high ERA and control issues, prompting the team to reevaluate his role in the short term.
 
Sending Matthews down to the minors would allow him to regain confidence and refine his skills in a less pressured environment. The minor leagues offer a valuable opportunity for pitchers to work on their mechanics, improve their command, and develop a more reliable pitching repertoire. For Matthews, this step back could be instrumental in addressing the issues that have hindered his performance at the major league level. The move to the minors should be viewed as a strategic part of Matthews' development. By returning to a level where he can face less experienced hitters and focus on specific areas of improvement, Matthews has the chance to build the consistency and effectiveness needed for a successful return to the majors. This approach not only benefits Matthews but also supports the team’s long-term goal of developing homegrown talent capable of contributing significantly at the major league level.
 
In the short term, the adjustments involving Festa and Matthews are designed to address immediate performance concerns and optimize the pitching staff. Festa’s transition to the bullpen provides an additional high-leverage arm, potentially improving late-game outcomes and offering the team more flexibility in managing their pitching resources. Matthews’ reassignment to the minors frees up a roster spot and allows the team to explore other options or adjustments in the rotation and bullpen. Looking ahead, these moves are part of a broader strategy to balance immediate needs with long-term development. By leveraging Festa’s strengths in a bullpen role and giving Matthews time to grow and improve, the Twins are positioning themselves to maintain competitive performance while nurturing their young talent. This approach aligns with the team’s goal of building a sustainable, successful pitching staff capable of supporting their playoff aspirations and achieving long-term success. The decisions to move David Festa to the bullpen and send Zebby Matthews down to the minors reflect a thoughtful approach to managing the Minnesota Twins’ pitching staff. By optimizing Festa’s role and providing Matthews with additional development time, the Twins are addressing current performance issues while investing in the future. These strategic moves are aimed at enhancing the team’s competitive edge and ensuring that their pitching staff remains a strong component of their overall success. As the season progresses, these changes will be closely monitored, with adjustments made as needed to achieve the team’s goals and maintain their pursuit of postseason glory.
What our bullpen could look like
LRP: David Festa
LRP: Louie Varland
MRP: Corey Lewis ( We should Call him Up)
MRP: Cole Sands
SU7: Justin Topa
SU8: Griffin Jax
CP: Jhoan Duran
Budget:
Immediate Budget Adjustments
The immediate financial impact of these roster moves includes the cost savings associated with sending Matthews to the minors and utilizing an in-house option like Festa for the bullpen. These adjustments can help the Twins manage their current payroll and provide some flexibility in their budget. With Matthews no longer on the major league roster, the team avoids paying his major league salary, which is particularly relevant for teams operating within a tight budget.
Future Financial Planning
Looking ahead, these moves also influence the Twins' financial strategy for future seasons. By developing internal talent like Festa and Matthews, the team can potentially avoid larger expenditures on free agents or trades in the future. Successfully transitioning Festa to a bullpen role and developing Matthews further can result in cost-effective solutions that enhance team performance without significantly increasing payroll. This approach aligns with a broader strategy of building a competitive team while managing financial resources prudently.
Long-Term Budgetary Impact
In the long term, these roster moves reflect a strategic approach to balancing immediate performance needs with future financial sustainability. By investing in young talent and optimizing the use of existing players, the Twins can build a competitive team while keeping costs in check. This strategy allows the organization to allocate resources more effectively, potentially freeing up funds for other critical areas such as upgrading key positions, investing in scouting and player development, or making strategic trades.
The decision to move David Festa to the bullpen and send Zebby Matthews down to the minors has notable financial implications for the Minnesota Twins. In the short term, these moves provide cost savings and greater flexibility within the team's budget, reducing the need for external acquisitions and freeing up resources. In the long term, they reflect a strategic approach to roster management, focusing on developing internal talent and managing financial resources effectively. As the Twins continue to build their team and pursue success, these budgetary considerations will play a crucial role in shaping their overall strategy and ensuring a balanced approach to competitiveness and financial health.
Conclusion
The Minnesota Twins’ recent and forthcoming decisions reflect a strategic approach aimed at addressing both immediate needs and long-term goals. By focusing on critical areas such as pitching and first base depth, the Twins are making calculated moves to enhance their competitiveness while managing their financial resources effectively.
Pitching Enhancements:
Adding a pitcher like Jack Flaherty and shifting David Festa to the bullpen represents a dual strategy to strengthen the pitching staff. Flaherty’s recent performance with the Dodgers highlights his potential as a valuable addition, providing the Twins with a reliable arm to complement Pablo López and effectively replace the role once filled by Sonny Gray. Meanwhile, moving Festa to the bullpen aligns with his strengths, optimizing his high-strikeout potential in shorter, high-leverage situations. These decisions not only improve the Twins' rotation and bullpen depth but also allow for better management of pitcher workloads, enhancing the overall performance and resilience of the pitching staff.
Offensive Upgrades:
In the quest for offensive improvement, acquiring Anthony Santander addresses the Twins' need for a right-handed power bat. Santander’s proven ability to drive in runs and his solid defensive skills make him an ideal fit for bolstering the lineup. His addition would provide depth and protection for key hitters, significantly enhancing the team’s offensive capabilities and balancing the lineup. This move aims to improve run production and ensure a more potent and dynamic offensive unit.
Roster and Budget Adjustments:
The decision to send Zebby Matthews down to the minors and the financial implications of these roster moves reflect a strategic balance between immediate performance and future development. Sending Matthews to the minors allows him to focus on refining his skills while freeing up budgetary space, which can be redirected towards other needs. Similarly, moving Festa to the bullpen helps manage expenses related to external acquisitions and maximizes the use of in-house talent. These adjustments not only address current roster needs but also contribute to a longer-term strategy of developing homegrown talent and maintaining financial flexibility.
Overall Impact:
These strategic decisions underscore the Twins' commitment to building a competitive and financially sustainable team. By enhancing the pitching staff, improving offensive depth, and managing the budget effectively, the organization is positioning itself for both immediate success and long-term viability. The integration of new players, coupled with smart roster moves, aims to address critical needs while balancing the budget. As the Twins move forward, these decisions will play a crucial role in shaping the team's future performance and financial health, ensuring that they remain a strong contender in the league.
 
 

Relievers are a different then starters so judging a reliever by just his ERA doesn’t tell the whole story.  So lets look at Theilbar and see if he has been successful for the season or not so far.  We are going to start by going through game logs and comparing to a reliever with a similar ERA and another who is getting the job done and make notes.
As of the All-Star break Theilbar has pitched in 31 games with 22.1 innings and given up 14 earned runs for a 5.64 ERA.  In his 31 games he has 8 games where he has given up runs.  Or just in 25.8% of his games.  He has the following breakdown of Earned Runs given up in his appearances.
1 game with 4 earned runs
1 game with 3 earned runs
1 game with 2 earned runs
5 games with 1 earned run
I wanted to point out that half of his earned runs came in two appearances spanning 1/3 of an inning.  He gave up 3 runs in his first game of the season coming off of the disabled list. And 4 runs in another appearance.  Without those two appearances his ERA is under 3.00 which is almost in half.  
Lets compare with Funderburk who has appeared in 26 games with 33.2 innings and a 5.61 ERA.  Funderburk has given up runs in 13 or half of his appearances.  Now to be fair he is averaging over 40% more innings per appearance than Theilbar.  But at the end of the day.  Theilbar has a significantly better rate of pitching a scoreless appearance.
Funderburk has the following distribution of runs given up. 
1 game of 4 earned runs
1 game of 3 earned runs
3 games of 2 earned runs
8 games of 1 earned run
for comparisons sake, if you take out Funderburk's two worst appearances his ERA is still over 4. which is a reduction in ERA of around 1.5 ERA vs Theilbar's almost 3 ERA improvement from taking out his 2 worst appearances.  
Now lets look at a reliever who is deemed to be having a great year in Jax.
Jax has pitched in 44 games and given up earned runs in 8 of them.  18.2% of his appearances he has given up earned runs. 
His distribution is
1 game with 2 earned runs
7 games with 1 earned run.
The difference between these two is 2 appearances with an earned run by Theilbar more that Jax and that two of his appearances he was blown out with 3 and 4 runs during his appearance.  So that is those 2 appearances with 7 combined earned runs out of his 31 appearances makeup the difference between Theilbar and Jax level effectiveness in terms of % of appearances without giving up an Earned Run.  also pointing out that taking out Jax's 2 worst appearances amounts to 3 earned runs in 1 inning, so his ERA drops from 1.91 to 1.31 which is only .6 earned runs per 9 innings compared to the almost 3.ERA drop from Theilbar's two worst appearances.  Thus, making Theilbar's 2 worst appearances more costly to his overall numbers.
And lastly let's look at Theilbar vs previous Theilbar and see how he fares against last year's record.  Last year Theilbar gave up earned runs in 8 of his 36 appearances or in 22.2% of his appearances.  He had the distribution of
3 games with 2 earned runs
5 games with 1 earned run
The difference between this year's Theilbar and last year's Theilbar is 5 more scoreless appearances, and in two of them he gave up more runs.  With a few more scoreless appearances he could be just as successful at run prevention per appearance as last year.
Why then do we feel like Theilbar should be on the chopping block.  Here is an observation.  By June 12th he had 3 out of 6 appearances where he gave up runs including one where he gave up 4 earned runs in an appearance.  At that point he had given up runs in 8 of his 23 appearances, which is in 34.8% of them.  He was looking like a candidate to be reassigned.  He only had 3 more appearances in June.  And he has 5 more in July where he has not given up an earned run.  Also, his two worst appearances skew his ERA more than the other 2 examples by a long shot which also makes it seem his season is worse than it is.  It seems like he has turned a corner and being more effective overall.  I think it says that Thielbar is having more of an OK season that a bad one.  He was having a borderline bad one and then it seems he has turned a corner. 
I do not think this method of evaluation is the only way to look at a reliever’s success, but it does help to remove or minimize the view of the damage 2 bad appearances do for a reliever.  How does this view affect your view of his season so far?  Is his season more just OK then awful? 

I stated a little while ago about how bad PIT pitch coaching was & how pitchers blossomed after leaving there, Gerrit Cole was one example. I got a rebuttal that Gerrit Cole was always a monster. Here is a statement contrary.
"And yet as Cole adhered to the organization’s pitching philosophy, prioritizing efficiency and soft contact, the results were only good, not great. “Not the monster we know today,” said Ron Wolforth, founder of Texas Baseball Ranch. Cole struck out less than a batter per inning for the Pirates."

SO yet again  Baldelli pinch hits  for the lead off batter and the#2 batter in the 5th inning!!!????
 
you have your starting lineup for 4 out of 9 innings.
you pinch hit a guy hitting under .200 and an OPS under .500 for your leadoff guy, and you pinch  another guy under .200 BA and under .500 OPS for a guy hitting .354 &.928!!
 
Thsi SHi....  This CRA....  This STUFF  has to stop!!!!

When Pohlad dropped a bomb saying paraphrased "We aren't going after any $30MM/ yr. FA" & " We'll live where we're at". Many fans went berserk, I'm not taking sides if the Pohlads can afford to pay the money or not because I have no idea. But I do know we live in a much lower market than NY, LA & CHI. & can't compete with those teams in spending. But is spending big in FA the answer to being successful? NYY & NYM went big in FA last offseason, how did they do? Is FA the solution to all our problems? I think not. IMO FA is an inefficient way to take care of our needs with FA salaries skyrocketing every year. I'd like to look at 3 different teams that do not go big in FA yet are very productive.
1st is Baltimore, They won the highly competitive AL East Division & are positioned to be a powerhouse for years to come. How did they do it? Much like HOU they tanked for many years & were able to get high draft picks & started to accumulate great prospects. 2nd is Tampa Bay. It's been a while since TB has had a really bad season so how have they done it? By accumulating prospects by trading off hyped players (especially SP) getting near to FA for promising young players & prospects. Another successful team that doesn't rely on FA is Atlanta. Like TB they like to trade but they trade to fortify a need & when they get a player they like to be around for a while they extend them. Can we emulate them?
With the new anti-tanking lottery this is no longer a sure bet to build a great team, plus teams like PIT & CO have tanked for years & still are floundering. Maybe build a pitching pipeline like TB & CLE, which we have tried since Favey became GM. Many of our high-ceiling prospects never panned out & Ober (started out as mid-ceiling) is the highest of any of our prospects that have risen but we haven't been able to produce a rotation full of in-house high-level  SPs every year so we can trade them to fill weak spots in the team. Maybe we can be more proactive in trading to fill our needs and extend players like ATL? It should definitely help. 
BAL, TB & ATL are all different but there are a couple of things that they do that are the same. They are great at player & team evaluation & development which separates them from their peers and make them successful year after year. These are areas that the Twins need to improve. CO has tanked for years & they like to throw money at their players but that doesn't do any good if they don't have good player & team evaluation & development. IMO stats like WAR favor sluggers, & any high-focus analytical team tends to focus on HRs & defense & baserunning are minimized. Drafting, developing, team & player evaluations are prioritized on HRs, the rest is ignored. Analytics are very important but we can't be lost in it.
We been blessed with 3 high 1st round picks that were no brainers Lewis, Lee & Jenkins. Whenever we get a low 1st round draft pick we often select a big bat cOF/1B/DH (Rooker, Sabato, Larnach, & Caveco #13 was drafted as a SS but most likely will end up at 1B). I'm frustrated with the development of Wallner who has a lot of potential but it seems that all they focus on is for him to hit HRs. I'm frustrated with the development of our catchers. This priority affects us as far as our evaluation of our team needs & players' importance to the team where we hang onto players we could let go & let go of who we should keep.
Team & player evaluation & development are very important but where ATL separates itself is that they use that evaluations to find holes in their team & then they go out & make trades that fills or upgrade in that area. We have also been fortunate with trades that fell into our laps like Lopez, Ryan, & Maeda. But once we improve our team & players evaluations of not only our team but also those teams that hold our missing pieces, I'd love to see us to be more proactive in making trades. There are so many opportunities out there once our eyes are open. The opportunities that were open early this season are pretty much closed but there'll be new opportunities & we need to be ready for them.
I heard someone praise our FO that if Pohlad allocates X amount of dollars they will spend X amount of dollars. I can see what they are saying but I also see it as something very wasteful because if the Twins had an extra $11MM they could take another unrealistic risk on a Gallo-type that had no real need just because they had the money. Dreaming about picking up this high price FA or that high price FA isn't very feasible even before this Balley mess.
The Chinese look at crises as an opportunity, these 2 words have the same root word. We have 2 choices stay the same & fall behind or change our priorities to be more realistic & to become more like ATL & become independent from free agency,  & become a better & more competitive team.

Let’s Talk Salaries
The Padres traded their “once in a lifetime” superstar to the Yankees for payroll relief. This in spite of drawing over 3.2M fans in 2023 (2nd in NL). The Padres 2023 payroll was $259M (per sportrac.com) and they didn’t make the playoffs. In looking forward, the Padres are currently paying Manny Machado $17M per year until 2025 and then it becomes $25M in 2026 and then $39M for the next 7 years. Fernando Tatis will make $11.7M in 2024, $20.7M in 2025 and 2026, $25.7M in 2027 and 2028, then $36.7M until 2034. Xander Bogaerts will earn $25.45M from 2024 until 2033. It is interesting to add to this horror show the fact that both Tatis and Bogaerts were signed to play shortstop and at this moment they are playing right field and 2nd base respectively. This financial model can best be explained by the saying used by Whimpy in Popeye cartoons when he said, “I’ll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today”.
In the same boat are the Dodgers who this year signed Shohei Ohtani for 10 years at a total contract price of $700M. He will receive $2M in payroll each year until 2032 and then will be paid $68M for the next 10 years. They then signed Yoshinobu Yamamoto for 12 years and $325M (an average of $27M), but paying him $9.2M in 2024. And of course they traded for Tyler Glasnow and his $25M salary and quickly signed him to a lucrative contract extension. At some point, 10 years from now the Dodgers may have an extremely serious payroll problem.
To the credit of the NY Mets, last year under Steve Cohen’s ownership they bought every toy they could find in the toy department. Half way through the year they figured out that buying the best players does not guarantee positive results. At the trade deadline they traded many of their big off season signings for prospects and this off season they decided to sit out the dance and work on improving their farm system. Sanity has visited the Mets.
All of this brings me to the Twins. This past week Joe Pohlad made comments on local radio that seemed to hit the hometown fans the wrong way. He basically declared that the Twins would not be spending money to bringing in one of the high priced Boras Band of Five (now four). He did, however, leave some wiggle room for signing one of the lesser unsigned players who may come at a bargain rate and a short contract because of spring training already being underway.
Being from southern New England and new to the Twins, I’m now reading many fans questioning the ownership’s commitment to putting together a team that can compete for a World Series ring. The term “Cheap Pohlad” is appearing often in comments on X (not going to say, formerly twitter), The Athletic and Twins Daily. The majority of fans believe that the team has a strong and youthful nucleus and that with the addition of a piece or two can compete for the championship. The inability of the front office to add the missing pieces is being blamed on team ownership and their frugal ways.
To fill in my gaps in Twins history I thought that I should take a look at the team’s recent payroll and attendance figures so I can formulate my own opinion.
The Correa Effect
 
Year
Payroll
Prior Yr Attendance
Attend. Yr
2023
$160M
1,801,000
2022
2022
$150M
1,310,000
2021
2021
$123M
0
2020
2020
$135M
2,303,000
2019
2019
$114M
1,959,000
2018
2018
$110M
2,051,000
2017
2017
$104M
1,964,000
2016
 
2017 to 2019 was largely status quo. The attendance fluctuated by no more than 100,000 each year and the payroll showed inflationary increases. No huge surprises to their overall payroll plans.
2020 showed an 18.4% increase based on a 17.6% increase in attendance. Unfortunately 2020 was the Covid season where spectators were not allowed in the ball park, but players still needed to be paid according to their contract terms. I don’t know if ownership was covered by business interruption insurance or if they were stuck with a year of normal expenses (less many game day expenses) with no attendance revenue.
2021 - Probably as a reaction to the Covid season the payroll dropped by $12M for the 2021 season.
2022 – I will call this the Correa Factor. The Twins had a unique opportunity to sign one of baseball’s elites to a 3 year/$105M contract. The contract contained opt outs after each year, so unless Correa was to experience a major injury (which should have been covered by insurance), it was a 1 year/$35M contract. This transaction was probably unforeseen, but the budget was increased by $27M to make it happen. Chances are that the payroll budget may have been reduced because the attendance for the 2021 season only reached 1,310,000, far lower than previous seasons.
2023 – I will call this the Correa Factor II. There was probably little likelihood of Correa having a 2nd season with the Twins, but a funny thing happened, he fell back into their laps when the Giants and Mets were spooked by his physical. The Twins had an opportunity to take him back at a slightly lower rate and a reasonable 6 year term (with team options after that). They couldn’t reduce the budget after this signing so they ended up increasing the payroll from $150M to $160M. Attendance increased by 491,000, but still fell below the 2017-2019 norm.
2024 – They have been operating with a payroll bloated by the Correa double signings, were losing $7-$8M in TV Revenue, attendance had not bounced back to earlier amounts, and they needed to “right size” the budget.
I’ve used the term “right size” frequently in my career as a CFO. The term simply means to have the right number of employees (or payroll) for the amount of sales you are realizing. If your sales decrease from one year to the next you are probably going to look at a layoff or not replacing employees who leave. You match your loss of revenue with a reduction in expenses to keep your bottom line stable.
After all of this background, the Twins are basically saying that after a payroll that has increased by opportunity, not additional revenues, that they need to bring it back to an amount that is consistent with the attendance (and TV revenue) they are generating. That largely brings them back to the 2017-2019 days.
I think that their approach is fiscally reasonable and responsible. Let’s admit it, we were warned early in the off-season that this was going to be a reality. Last week it became cast in stone. However, let’s look at the bright side. There is still wiggle room for a spring training signing to round out the roster, just not one of the big boys.
Cost Per Attendee
To further evaluate the Twins position I decided to compare Payroll to Attendance. I did an analysis of the 2023 attendance for each team compared to their 2023 payroll. The team with the highest payroll for 2023 was the NY Mets and they were ranked 14th in total attendance. They ended up paying their players $137 for each person who attended a game. Second was the White Sox who had the 15th highest payroll but the 24th highest attendance. They ended up paying $108 for each person. The rest of the top 10 were the Yankees at $85, the Angels at $80, the Phillies at $80, the Marlins at $79, the Twins at $78, the Rangers at $77, the Padres at $76 and the Tigers at $76. The Twins ended up in 7th place among the 30 teams. The overall average was $68 for each fan attending. The team that spend the least on payroll compared to attendance were the Orioles at $31.
Some teams can alleviate some of this high cost per attendee because of the ticket prices they charge. A cost to the Mets of $137 per person or the Yankees at $85 can be offset by having higher ticket prices than a team like the Twins or Marlins. It is possible that when this payroll cost per attendee is adjusted by average ticket price, that the Twins may climb up the ladder and be closer to the top ranking.
My Summary or Conclusion (Finally)
My hope for the Twins is that as the trade deadline approaches that we will be able to pickup a premium pitcher to round out our playoff roster. I have complete confidence in ownership that this will happen if the right player and the right deal comes along. They have already opened up for purse strings for Carlos Correa. Strong attendance will be very helpful.
As far as how they handle financial management, I believe paring back payroll and not taking on another $30M per year plunge is perfectly understandable. Their 2023 attendance of 1,974,000 puts them right back to the 2017-2019 years when the team payroll was around $110M. With a $126M payroll for 2024 and a loss of $7M in broadcast fees, it seems like a reasonable budget. Hopefully attendance will increase and there will be a willingness to spend at the trade deadline for any missing pieces.
I am not a Pohlad Family “fan boy”, but I feel that their approach is fiscally sound. While there are teams spending money like drunken sailors, the majority are still living within their means and looking at their front office to make personnel moves that will make a difference. Their standing as 7th when comparing payroll to attendance tells me that they are providing adequate funding to support the team. I can’t justify joining “Cheap Pohlad Club”.

WAR, what is it? I know it's wins above replacement but what does that mean? How do they come up with that? And what formula do they use? WAR is a stat that drives Fantasy Baseball &  analytical baseball; helps us evaluate individuals, teams & even determine HOF inductees. I've heard that most HOF voters often use total WAR to determine who to vote for unless they have some bias. But is WAR really the end-all means to evaluate a player's worth?
Let's look at catching. Catchers often sacrifice themselves to benefit the team, put a lot of time into evaluating hitters, and getting to know their pitchers, there's a lot of intangibles in being a catcher that are not calculated into WAR. IMO catching is the most important defensive position in baseball. They're in every play, stabilize the rotation & command the defense. But they haven't been fairly represented in the HOF lately. Why is that? It's because WAR is the standard & what affects WAR is HRs, defense is minimized & the intangibles are not considered.
Let me use a case in point, Yadier Molina. Yadi, you probably heard is a very good catcher but until you watch him play you can't really appreciate how elite he really is. Yet there are many that question his credentials of becoming a HOFer, because his WAR isn't high enough (his slugging % is not high enough although his BA is above average, especially for a catcher). Molina put in 19 yrs, all in STL catching every year. The lowest place they finished was once in 4th place yet they had a 89-79 record, during most of those years, STL made it to the postseason, won the NLC 4Xs going to the World Series 4Xs & winning the World Series 2Xs. Most of those years they were mainly considered a pitching/ defense type team. He won 9 GGs, 4 platnium gloves & 10 AS selections.
Some headlines of the Cards downfall last season blamed "the breakdown of the rotation" others "lack of leadership" yet more " poor defense"  & "catching". I think they could all be summed up with "no Molina". Molina stabilized the rotation, he was a leader, he commanded the defense & had great defensive stats of CS% & picking off runners that digressed after he left. Willson Contreras was a top 10 catcher, the most consistant hitting catcher in MLB. But STL pitchers refused to pitch to him in the beginning, Not because he was a terrible pitch caller (he was probably average) or was terrible in handling the pitchers it was because he wasn't Yadi. Molina had an incredible feel for the game, he knew what was going on all time. He knew when to change up the pich calling, pick off runners, when a pitcher should come out etc.
Joe Mauer deservingly was inducted into the HOF because he was the GOAT MLB hitting catcher, yet all MVP Mauer's years in MN, despite MN's greatest postseason SPs duo of Santana & Liriano, MVP Morneau, (CF)Hunter, Cuddyer plus others never had post season success. If I wasn't such a great fan of our honorable hometown hero Mauer & if I had choice between 15 years of Mauer (55.2 WAR) or 19 years of Molina (44.1 WAR), I'd pick Molina.
Now I'm not here to start a Molina for HOF campaign. & most certainly not start an anti-Mauer platform (I strongly denounce that) this has nothing to do about either. I'm here to show how unfair WAR is to exclusively evalute a player. Where hitting HRs raises WAR means everything & SOs & defense means very little.
 

In a previous post I had posited that the Twins should not make any moves for pitchers unless thay HAD to.  There is no NEED for a Postseason Starter until/if you make the postseason, os hang onto trade chips until you need to cash them.
Signing a FA however is a different story, even though a quality signing would necessitate dumping some salary, and that is different than trading young prospects for quality pitching..
I wouldn't touch Blake Snell. even though he has 2 Cy Youngs, he just doesnt go deep enough into games (although that would actually make him a perfect fit for our philosophy).
 
JOrdan Montgomery would be a great cherry on the top of this offseason..  Currently the Twins project to be at roughly $123M for the season.  There has been "talk" of up to $140M on the budget with a redone TV deal in place. While that is still $20M below last years payroll, it still leaves $17M on the table.
Montgomery is apparetly looking for something bigger than teh Aaron Nola deal which was 7 years $172M. or basically $25M per season..
 
at 31 years old you would be buying the back half of his 30's as a premium, that being said he has been for the most part healthy over the last 3-4 years, and really in another 5 years an average starter will cost darn near $25M. SO I would say that something around a Nola deal would not be a huge overspend. There is however another option, a short term higher AAV with opt outs, similar to the Initial Carlos Correa deal.
 
You sell him on Sonny Gray just signing a 3 year $75M at 3 years his senior after pitching with this team. A full year with 1 team (which he hasn't had in 3 years) pitching in a weak division, with the potential offense the Twins have, and he is a potential 20 game winner if he pitches to his recent season averages of right around 3.00 ball.  Lets throw a 3 year $90M deal on the table with opt outs after each year, Include a 4th year $20M option with a $10M buyout to allow him to hit the $100M mark.  
If we go there, we would need to clear about $13M from the payroll stay within the $140M top end payroll projections.
This could be done easily. with ANY combination of moves.
The usual suspects:
1) Kyle Farmer has $6.25M on the books. That is a decent amount for a utility infielder, even if he is a decent quality. We still have some depth to replace him even with trading Gordon/Polanco.
2) MAx Kepler has $10M on the books.  while losing his defense we have Larnach, Kirilloff (if Santana is primary 1B), plus Castro an possibly Martin who cold claim a spot. That being said while Max could garner the most in trade, I would hate to see him go (coming from the guy who wanted a bag of used BP balls for him last year!!)
3) Christian Vasquez also has $10M on the books. While a good clubhouse guy, Jeffers deserves at least 60% of the ABs from catcher if not more. and $10M for a back up catcher is just irresponsible for a team claiming to have budgetary concerns.
Moving JUST TWO... ANY combination of two from above clears enough to bring in Montgomery.
In other words, ask yourself this...  If Montgomery were a trade candidate and he was making $90M over the next 3 years, and his team offered you him for Kepler an vasquez, would ANYONE say no???  NOPE.
After a succesful year 1 with the Twins, and being a Boras client, he would most likely opt out of the remaining 2 years, at which point the Twins can designate him with a QO and get draft pick compensation.  And heck, he would be great trade bait in the off chance the Twins arent in contention.
 
Either way you cut it, a short term higher AAV deal, or a longer term deal closer to $25M he would/could be an affordable add. and all the Twins would need to give up is trading away redundant or overpaid pieces and ask for little in return.
 

We've all been there before, battling against a Pollyanna Twins fan who just doesn't get it! The guy is a bum! As they obstinately prattle on citing reason or having watched an MLB game before, the rage grows inside of you until you remember your trump card: He's just another Miguel Sano.
For your reference, I've compiled a list of 2023 Twins hitters and why they're just another Miguel Sano. If you ever meet someone who just won't listen to a baseball genius like yourself, you'll always have this argument.
Christian Vazquez: Overpaid albatross of a contract the Twins will never win paying him 10 million a year! Just another Miguel Sano!
Carlos Correa: OVERPAID! Rod in his leg! Big arm but nothing else! Just another Miguel Sano!
Byron Buxton: Always hurt! Strikes out too much! I thought I was promised him and Sano were going to lead this team to multiple World Series whatever happened to that! Just another Miguel Sano!
Max Kepler: Had a pop-up year in 2019 and has done NOTHING since! Just another Miguel Sano!
Jorge Polanco: Another bust who only made one All Star team! I was promised 12 more! Just another Miguel Sano!
Jordan Luplow: Was on waivers just like Sano should have been! Just another Miguel Sano!
Ryan Jeffers: Big lumbering oaf who strikes out too much! Just another Miguel Sano!
Michael A. Taylor: Runs into one once in a while but everything else is a strikeout! Just another Miguel Sano!
Matt Wallner: Big arm one-trick-pony who strikes out looking too much! Just another Miguel Sano!
Willi Castro: Swings at everything! No plate discipline! Just another Miguel Sano!
Edouard Julien: A butcher in the field and takes too many strikes! Goes up looking to walk! Just another Miguel Sano!
Jose Miranda: Bad third baseman who swings at everything! Just another Miguel Sano!
Trevor Larnach: Too many strikeouts! Just another Miguel Sano!
Kyle Garlick: Supposed to hit righties but doesn't! Just another Miguel Sano!
Donovan Solano: A butcher at third base! Just another Miguel Sano!
Gilberto Celestino: Saw him a couple years ago but not sure where he is now! Just another Miguel Sano!
Kyle Farmer: Actually no I like him he works really hard he plays the game the right way and isn't afraid to get dirty I'd let him date my daughter.
Nick Gordon: Bust who used to be a shortstop! Just another Miguel Sano!
Andrew Stevenson: Killed the ball in the minors but can't hit MLB pitching! Just another Miguel Sano!
Alex Kirilloff: Made an error at first base! Always injured! Never lived up to the hype! Just another Miguel Sano!
Royce, Lewis,: Third baseman who's always hurt! Gets away with it because he's overhyped! Just another Miguel Sano!
Joey Gallo: *enters cardiac arrest*

I hope the injury to Royce Lewis is not as bad as I fear.  That was NOT "Hamstring tightness".
 
ANYOEN/EVERYONE watching this game saw it, and I am guessing we all let out a simultaneous  "OH F---"!!!!!!   How could they not see it?
Was anyone else as enraged as I was when listening to Tingler explain the injury?  I do not have it recorded so I will be paraphrasing, but when asked about if the injury running down to first on the previous at bat had anything to do with it, he says he did not see any issues with Royce running down to first, and that he just slowed up.  NO Jayce he did not "just slow up" he CLEARLY did something.  Jayce then said  that he didn't see anything and that Royce did not come to him to share any potential injury..  How can a (fill in manager) and a head trainer watch a guy as vital to the steam as Royce Lewis is pull up OBVIOUSLY lame running to first. and you not GO TO HIM?!?!?!?!!!!!!
 
ROyce needed to be pulled immediately!!! You just saw a guy run the bases and pull up lame, a player who is the key to your team, a player that has a history of SIGNIFICANT knee injuries, he CLEARLY pulls up lame and limping and you do nothing???  You were in a 7-0 ballgame leading a division by 7 games with 10 games to go.  Lewis should have been pulled IMMEDIATELY!!!
 
Now the end result may not be much different, maybe the damage was already done there, but he should never have been left in the game after that.
Royce's reaction going into the dugout was not a reaction of someone who has a tight hamstring, that was a reaction of a young player who has come back from 2 SIGNIFICANT injuries, missing SIGNIFICANT time, knowing he just had another SIGNIFICANT injury and is about to lose even more SIGNIFICANT time to rehab yet another injury. That was the reaction of a player who knows he is not playing another competitive game again this year.
 
I PRAY I am wrong, but the results here, but either way, if it is a 1 day injury or a 1 year injury, what is most frustrating is the incompetent handling of this by both the fill in manager and the head trainer, and both should be immediately terminated for incompetence.