I largely agree with your post, but surplus value is a benefit of an already good club. Under the conditions of your scenario, the Twins hold onto Pressly (or whoever) until whatever trade value they have is utterly diminished. If the team is not contending, it should seek to deal short-term-controlled assets (1-2 years) before their trade-value is near-zero. The Twins had no way of knowing last year that they'd compete this year (sure they'd hope and plan for, but that was pie in the sky a year ago), so they acted to deal short term assets, regardless of surplus.