PseudoSABR
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Everything posted by PseudoSABR
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Shame. We don't need to impede people's rights to make them look stupid and shallow.
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Dave, what will you give me for Berrios?
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Hey, if the status quo gets us more Mays and Meyers, I'm all for it! Btw, the rhetoric here isn't necessarily asinine, but it sure is butthurt.
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**** I'm thinking either Soler or Almora
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Hmm. I'm thinking I'm going to go with Giolito despite the TJ surgery. Too much ceiling to pass up. I just hope the guy in front of me doesn't swoop in and take him.
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Just to add to the ongoing discussion, of course people are going to overvalue the information they have easy access to (stats) as opposed to the information they don't (game film, scouting). -
I actually think the humor is pretty poor, but whatever, the guy's going for it. We get that there's a traditional sense that the Twins are strikeout adverse, but acquiring Meyer and May undercut the comic premise here. So, Meh.
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I can agree they are probably playing it too safe. But again, hard for me to get worked up over it, given the context of the offseason.
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I didn't bring WAR to the discussion. There's lots of convenient evidence going on in this thread to make our pet points, wouldn't you say?
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Does Hunter realize that the success of the teams he was on were all built through "playing for the future"? That's rhetorical question.
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I edited my post, with: "This is the season where the Twins tend to fill out their bullpen, so I'm still in wait and see model. But a deal like this might make the Twins feel sheepish later, I can agree with that" which I kind of addresses your most recent post.
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TR has brought in four pitchers to compete for the rotation (even if they all have warts). There's something of a false sentiment here that the Twins have done nothing to fix the rotation; they may not have done enough, but the rotation will be much better last year.
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I don't necessarily disagree, unless the Twins have other players in mind, or there's something they really don't like about Frasor. This is the season where the Twins tend to fill out their bullpen, so I'm still in wait and see model. But a deal like this might make the Twins feel sheepish later, I can agree with that. FO has acquired four pitchers to compete for the rotation, even if all those players have warts...
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Look, we can make the argument that signing Marcum precludes us from signing a better pitcher like Josh Johnson. We could use that money in any number of better ways--just because there is money coming off the books, doesn't mean we should become free spending and invest in players the team doesn't believe in. Firstly, this misses the context of what already has happened this off season. Secondly, Marcum was not a 3 or 4 WAR player last year. Marcum, at this point, isn't replacing a negative WAR player like PJ Walters, he'd be replacing whoever is in the number 5 slot Harden/Hendricks/Gibson. It becomes diminishing returns when you spend millions of dollars to upgrade a position by a minimal amount of WAR (or wins). Two things: 1) The difference between the two last year in WAR was .5, the difference in xFIP .1. 2) The Twins might actually have legitimate concerns about Marcum's heath. (I agree Marcum gives us far more to hope on, but that doesn't mean he'll produce like he did a couple years ago with the BJs). And really, you're better than predicting the rosiest outcome for your pet free agent of choice (3 or 4 WAR) and the worst outcome for the players he's replacing (-1 WAR). Come on, man. As I've said before, I'd like Marcum on the team, but there is a point of diminishing returns by upgrading from mediocre to average, as each run on the ladder becomes excessively more expensive. I'm for such overpayments when we're actually in a postion to compete and we have a better sense of our actual needs for such a team .
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What is it?
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If that happens, the Twins look pretty smart, and they could still acquire a pitcher by trade. Sure they'd regret not picking up Marcum. But this of course, is totally rosy, and unlikely. Because it constrains your payroll the next year and the year after for a now older pitcher. Sure from a fan perspective But I don't know if you can run a business like that. It gets back to my whole point about diminishing returns, how many more wins does really signing Marcum (or whomever) give the Twins. My sense is that the Twins really don't value guys like Marcum and McCarthy that much more than the guys they've already picked up. So from their point of view, they are making an attempt to compete, but without spending money unnecessarily. (FTR, I hope we still do sign Marcum, even to a one year deal, but I'm just not going to get worked up over the non-signing, given the context of the rest of the offseason and the general direction of the club.)
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To clarify, I wasn't really trying to be predictive. We could knock that number down to seventy and the other to seventy-five...the point is there's threshold of diminishing returns on using money to chase wins...
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If you tell me the sky is blue, I'd go outside to check. You're equating Correa to guys with less 100 IP of ML ball. I think you're definition of what a spade is changes depending on whatever argument you seem to be making.
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Talent is great, but if the Twins feel they can get cheaper, better talent than say Frasor (or signed pitcher of the day) who am I to fault them? There's an implication here that the Twins aren't good at identifying inexpensive talent--when in recent history the Twins have consistently found effective bullpen parts on scrap heap. Spending money doesn't necessarily equal bringing in more talent, and there's a threshold of diminishing returns that the Twins aren't going to pass, nor should they.
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Look, I don't necessarily believe that, but certainly they'd have more impenitence to sign such pitchers when they are on the verge of competing and have more room in the budget. I mean, aren't you suggesting in part that the Twins should have made such moves this season. You have your own theory; that the Twins should have done more to compete this season. Which is fine and good, but I'm flabbergasted that you rebuff when pressed with "well what should the Twins specifically done to please you?" And asking you to legitimize such choices by noting how many more wins these moves might earn seems to totally legitimate. Not answering these questions makes your theory (the premise of this thread) pretty ethereal to me. Look, are we really going to fault the Twins for going with an 80 million 75-win team as opposed to a 90 million 80-win team?
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You can't just make up **** up and call it a fact. People will stop taking you seriously if they already haven't. You really don't have any basis for your distinction between cheap and penny-wise--it's just your opinion. And sure, Corriea is a status quo signing, so flame away, but to generalize that the Twins are maintaining the status quo when they just traded two of their CFers that were under team control for years for three legitimate, young pitchers is asinine. You seem ideological predisposed against the Twins.
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Look at all the people that answered these questions! I think it tells us something.
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May and Meyer (and Worley) fly in the face of such inane rhetoric. We've also signed Harden and Pelfry in exactly these kind of moves (that naysayers for years cry "why don't we take a chance on on somebody like Rich Harden! " Well, we just did). So what, the Twins didn't like Frasor; maybe they even had good reason. My sense is that the Twins are looking for cheap ML innings to basically tread water until the next core group emerges in the majors. I think it's perfectly legitimate to bemoan that the Twins could do more to compete in 2013, but signing Frasor or Guthrie or Blanton or McCarthy or Feldman probably doesn't really make the Twins much more competitive (if at all) than the signings they've made. So it's hard for me to blame the Twins for not spending the money (even if it isnt mine, and they are under budget).
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Wouldn't it make more sense to invest in 2014 or 2015's versions of Jackson and Sanchez?
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Evidently, 1.5 million was too expensive for everyone else too. These kind of threads are just vapid; do we really need to complain every time another team signs a player that the Twins might be able to use.
