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PseudoSABR

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Everything posted by PseudoSABR

  1. PseudoSABR
    You can't imagine a scenario where a prospect could be rushed? Basically, it's the phenomenon where the lack of the player's skillset results in the development of bad habits and/or the loss of confidence. I think we can see that the entirety of the MLB recognizes this with how few talented players make their debuts at young ages or shortly after being drafted. Clearly the minor leagues serve some purpose. You point to the exceptions, but they prove the general rule: don't rush your prospects. Rooker's age is a red hearing. He's had less than two years of pro-ball. Just because he's older doesn't mean the consequences of him being exposed to the major leagues too soon will be erased. In any case, whether he's rushed or not, he should not be penciled in the lineup when there's an affordable asset like Cruz which can be obtained. Even if we had not signed Cruz, or picked up Cron, I have a hard time imagining a scenario that would have Rooker as an opening day 1b/DH in 2019.
  2. PseudoSABR
    Again, it's Gordon's trade value (much more than Cron) PLUS his current value to the Twins (much less than Cron). So of course Gordon has more trade value than Cron, but his value to the Twins is so beneath Cron's that Nick has him ranked below Cron. You are horseshoeing the metric as trade value only or current value to the Twins only; it's a combination of the two. You're being a bit obtuse, my friend.
  3. PseudoSABR
    But Javier would have significant trade value if he were healthy, despite not being able to contribute currently. The equation seem to be current value to the Twins PLUS value in a trade. I think Nick is implying that Javier's value as a tradeable asset is greater than Cron's current value to the Twins. And Gordon's value as a tradeable asset and currently does not eclipse Cron's current value to the Twins.
  4. PseudoSABR
    Would you agree, that in spite of what Cron or Cave would fetch in a trade, they are more valuable to the Twins this season than Gordon is likely to be?
  5. PseudoSABR
    It seems like the rankings are based on two factors: [A] Present value to the Twins + Trade value (I think trade value incorporates potential/decline) Cron has plenty of present value but no trade value. Gordon has little present value, and his trade value, while higher than Cron's isn't what it was. Javier has no present value, but his trade value (once he's healthy) would--at least in Nick's opinion--eclipse both Gordon's present+trade value, and Cron's present value.
  6. PseudoSABR
    Under this logic, every free agent signing would be a poor one. In any case, Seattle has been shedding salary not adding it this off season.
  7. PseudoSABR
    One year deal with an option. Ideal. Let Austin and Cron battle for the 1B spot in ST, and then cut bait with one.
  8. PseudoSABR
    The Twins have three potential 2019 FAs locked into their rotation, bringing in a make-due-one-year guy makes little sense, unless the deal is more than one year. If they are going to add to their rotation they need to bring in someone they can rely on more than this season. I'm not sure how competitive the Twins will be this year, given that, I hope we can figure out what we have in Meija, Romero, Gonsalves, Stewart, even Thorpe. In the 2019 offseason, they'll have as many as FOUR spots to fill, and we need to know what internal options we have. Honestly, it's a difficult position for the front office, but I think they need to see what they've got. (That said, if Pomeranz or Bucholz is brought in on a very low deal and no guarantee, I'm fine with it; especially if such would lead to a trade, say, of Ordorrizi(sp?)).
  9. PseudoSABR
    Right. Bad title, fair article/analysis.
  10. PseudoSABR
    Beat me to it.
  11. PseudoSABR
    He's still an asset for the year (which could be traded for future value), and you have exclusive right to bargain for an extension. The demand that the Twins spend hugely seems a bit misguided. Beyond Machado and Harper, I don't think the Twins can buy a real difference maker. Does Marwin Gonzales add that much more than Schoop? Do you want the Twins to give 100 some million to Keuchel?
  12. PseudoSABR
    Well it doesn't look like the Twins believe Gordon will be ready to contribute, given the signing of both Torres and Schoop. This is a fine one-year deal, but it would have been nice to get a second/option year, so if he does bounce back the Twins will benefit.
  13. PseudoSABR
  14. PseudoSABR
    I think this analysis leaves out how well Cron hit lefties last year (.307 .376 .553 .930 in 170 PAs) (even with the outsized BAbip), and pretty well in 2017 as well (.233 .290 .500 .790 in 93 PAs) (lower-than-career-average BAbip). Although there's some redundancy between Austin and Cron, I think that there will always be redundancy between 1b/DH; and although a left-hander would have been preferable, that Cron hits lefties well, doesn't make him quite as redundant to Austin as we might think. Every team would like position flexibility, including the DH, but that's idealistic, and given the holes at both 1B and DH, I think the loss of flexibility is worth bringing in a bat with some kind of positive track record. Clearly, not the AL teams with worse records than the Twins (and the Rays) think so, but they may not have two gaping holes as the Twins do. The fear is that this will be the Twins only move or is representative of the moves the Twins have traditionally made throughout the past several decades. That said, I don't believe the new regime is mired in frugality, perhaps as last off season showed (notwithstanding the results).
  15. PseudoSABR
    Or they decide Cron is worth the over-budget cost in Spring Training. It seems smart to me. I mean you're plan is to bring in no one to compete for 1b/DH...
  16. PseudoSABR
    That wasn't my point. My point is that he's a low risk, and I don't believe his addition is at all preventive to any other signings, because of the flexibility with cutting him (like Grossman). Keep the players until you have to cut them. How would you have felt about the Darnold signing? If you're this irrate over non-guaranteed 5MM, how about guaranteed 23MM?
  17. PseudoSABR
    That's now 1B/LF/DH/3B/backup-C. That doesn't sound like any kind of upgrade. Astudillo will be part of the team, one way or the other, but I think it's ridiculous to count on him (and Austin) as regulars.
  18. PseudoSABR
    So you're literally budgeting zero dollars to 1b/DH? Awesome.
  19. PseudoSABR
    And you can cut Cron irrespective of Austin. Go figure. We actually have both DH/1B to fill, and so far you're asking us to roll with Austin and who?
  20. PseudoSABR
    As I just said, I think 5MM is a pretty marginal cost. If the Twins will hand out a big contract say a 100MM contract, this would represent a mere 5%. And again, you can get nearly the savings by cutting Grossman loose.
  21. PseudoSABR
    What SP worth having is going to get 5MM a year? I doubt 5MM this year will keep the Twins from spending big on SP if they really intend to.
  22. PseudoSABR
    Cron has shown similar production as Austin in many more at bats prior to last season's "breakout." Basically, we're suggesting there's evidence that Austin can do what Cron did last season, without even having Cron's prior production to last season. In any case, if Cron does prove to be redundant during Spring Training, cut him. There's very little downside, beyond not signing another 1b/DH type (sorry Chief!).
  23. PseudoSABR
    Indeed they might be. Cron hits lefthanders significantly better than Austin. Want 5M, cut Grossman. And I don't anticipate 5M relievers being difference makers (without a longer commitment).
  24. PseudoSABR
    There's lots of ways the roster can shake out. The Twins aren't guaranteeing the contract to Cron or Austin. Grossman is probably the odd man out, given Cron's splits and similar cost. Austidillo still has options so he's part of the equation regardless if he's on the opening day roster. And it's worth emphasizing, this will not be the Twins only move.
  25. PseudoSABR
    Still haven't looked at the splits, I see. And still making a lot of Austin's short showing of the Twins. I don't count on Austin for anything, and because of that, Cron is not redundant.
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