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PseudoSABR

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Everything posted by PseudoSABR

  1. PseudoSABR
  2. PseudoSABR
    I think this analysis leaves out how well Cron hit lefties last year (.307 .376 .553 .930 in 170 PAs) (even with the outsized BAbip), and pretty well in 2017 as well (.233 .290 .500 .790 in 93 PAs) (lower-than-career-average BAbip). Although there's some redundancy between Austin and Cron, I think that there will always be redundancy between 1b/DH; and although a left-hander would have been preferable, that Cron hits lefties well, doesn't make him quite as redundant to Austin as we might think. Every team would like position flexibility, including the DH, but that's idealistic, and given the holes at both 1B and DH, I think the loss of flexibility is worth bringing in a bat with some kind of positive track record. Clearly, not the AL teams with worse records than the Twins (and the Rays) think so, but they may not have two gaping holes as the Twins do. The fear is that this will be the Twins only move or is representative of the moves the Twins have traditionally made throughout the past several decades. That said, I don't believe the new regime is mired in frugality, perhaps as last off season showed (notwithstanding the results).
  3. PseudoSABR
    Or they decide Cron is worth the over-budget cost in Spring Training. It seems smart to me. I mean you're plan is to bring in no one to compete for 1b/DH...
  4. PseudoSABR
    That wasn't my point. My point is that he's a low risk, and I don't believe his addition is at all preventive to any other signings, because of the flexibility with cutting him (like Grossman). Keep the players until you have to cut them. How would you have felt about the Darnold signing? If you're this irrate over non-guaranteed 5MM, how about guaranteed 23MM?
  5. PseudoSABR
    That's now 1B/LF/DH/3B/backup-C. That doesn't sound like any kind of upgrade. Astudillo will be part of the team, one way or the other, but I think it's ridiculous to count on him (and Austin) as regulars.
  6. PseudoSABR
    So you're literally budgeting zero dollars to 1b/DH? Awesome.
  7. PseudoSABR
    And you can cut Cron irrespective of Austin. Go figure. We actually have both DH/1B to fill, and so far you're asking us to roll with Austin and who?
  8. PseudoSABR
    As I just said, I think 5MM is a pretty marginal cost. If the Twins will hand out a big contract say a 100MM contract, this would represent a mere 5%. And again, you can get nearly the savings by cutting Grossman loose.
  9. PseudoSABR
    What SP worth having is going to get 5MM a year? I doubt 5MM this year will keep the Twins from spending big on SP if they really intend to.
  10. PseudoSABR
    Cron has shown similar production as Austin in many more at bats prior to last season's "breakout." Basically, we're suggesting there's evidence that Austin can do what Cron did last season, without even having Cron's prior production to last season. In any case, if Cron does prove to be redundant during Spring Training, cut him. There's very little downside, beyond not signing another 1b/DH type (sorry Chief!).
  11. PseudoSABR
    Indeed they might be. Cron hits lefthanders significantly better than Austin. Want 5M, cut Grossman. And I don't anticipate 5M relievers being difference makers (without a longer commitment).
  12. PseudoSABR
    There's lots of ways the roster can shake out. The Twins aren't guaranteeing the contract to Cron or Austin. Grossman is probably the odd man out, given Cron's splits and similar cost. Austidillo still has options so he's part of the equation regardless if he's on the opening day roster. And it's worth emphasizing, this will not be the Twins only move.
  13. PseudoSABR
    Still haven't looked at the splits, I see. And still making a lot of Austin's short showing of the Twins. I don't count on Austin for anything, and because of that, Cron is not redundant.
  14. PseudoSABR
    Yes, I do. When the difference is between 5 and 20 million, or whatever Cruz will get. What more productive player do you propose for 5 million?
  15. PseudoSABR
    Austin had far fewer at bats. Cron played more last season than he ever has. If Cron being DFA'd by TB counts as a strike, so does being traded for Lance Lynn. /sarcasm-kinda I doubt Cron prevents us from signing a RHed OFer. Again, we have holes at 1B/DH. We do not have plenty of corner infield bats.
  16. PseudoSABR
    The "it's not my money" argument doesn't hold much water with me. The dollars you want to spend on Cruz can be better spent elsewhere in the pursuit of wins.
  17. PseudoSABR
    If we want to use big money on a position, I'd put 1b/DH pretty far down the list. If the Twins continue to bargain shop, I'm not sure that should be an indictment of Cron, or have this particular pick up.
  18. PseudoSABR
    But enough to justify Cruz's outsized cost? That's the real question.
  19. PseudoSABR
    1) No one was arguing that 5 million is more than the minimum. But 5mil for .800 OPS is affordable even from a 1b/DH. 2) Cron has actually posted a season of 30/.800. Austin doesn't have that. If you're unwilling to predict a repeat for Cron, upon what basis do you predict Austin will be equal to Cron? Projection? Small-sample size? 3) The splits suggest the two players could compliment each other despite the same-handedness.
  20. PseudoSABR
    Did you see the splits? Cron has a track record; Austin just doesn't. That should matter. (And Cron is hardly expensive).
  21. PseudoSABR
    You're penciling Austin in for 30 HRs and a OPS north of .800 OPS? If Austin produces during ST, I'm pretty sure we can still cut ties with Cron. And we do have holes at both 1b/DH; so we may need both in the lineup, unless you're counting on Grossman, whom I think is real roster casualty.
  22. PseudoSABR
    Yes.
  23. PseudoSABR
    Those splits are not what I expected. Very interesting, maybe he does make a good platoon partner with Austin.
  24. PseudoSABR
    I recall it being discussed here before that players on arbitration don't have their salary guaranteed prior to the season. Someone more knowledgeable/smarter than me may know for sure.
  25. PseudoSABR
    We arguably have holes at 1b and DH; I don't think his contract is guaranteed, like Austin, he could be waived at any point before the season at no cost, so should the Twins find a better option, they can release Cron/Austin. As others have pointed out, I think this probably spells the end for Grossman.
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