I think the Twins second pick is about 45 and that's what I looked up. 1965-2009 45 drafts the number 45 pick has had a 58% fail rate, the player never made it to the majors. 33% made it and had a negative war or a career war of less than 3. Only 9% or 4 players in 45 years had a war over 3 and none of those were over 8. IMO getting a quality player like Drew that has produced around 16 war over his career seems like a great trade off. The chances of drafting a player and getting any decent production is less than 10%. I'd bet that you'd get more than that out of Drew even if he doesn't reproduce last year.