markos

Keith Law posted his first mock draft today. http://espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/insider/post?id=2618 He has the Twins picking Matt Manning, and he has heard that they are most interested in "power arms first and a few high school athletes as well." Looking at several of the recent mocks, I think there is a very good chance that a high-upside arm is available at #15.

How does it look? Depends on your perspective. As someone who watched a multi-generation mom & pop company shutter offices and fire long-time employees in a desperate attempt to avoid bankruptcy during the last recession, I would give the organization the benefit of the doubt that they did everything possible to make things work, but that things got so bad that there were no other options. And if I thought that the problems with the organization were outside of ownership's direct control and temporary, I would still consider working for that organization. So I think context matters a lot in this case. I don't think this would be a "sudden" move - the team has been mediocre-to-downright-terrible for 6 straight seasons. What is the old saying about bankruptcy? Something like, "gradually, then all at once." Cleaning house after another unsuccessful season would be hardly be outside the norm of business activity. If you think a clean break signals desperation and cluelessness, what moves can the Pohlads do at this point to enact change in a smart manner? Or has that ship sailed?

Yeah, you are right on all of this, and I certainly don't have any special insight into Hoyer's hopes and dreams. Though I would counter by pointing out that he was only in SD for 2 years (Oct 2009 to Oct 2011), and I'm not sure how much autonomy he had there. He retained (or had to retain?) the existing manager (Bud Black) and Josh Byrnes was brought in as a the "senior vice president of baseball operations" a few months after Hoyer was hired. I'm not sure how much say Hoyer had in that hire - the Padres CEO at the time of Byrnes's hire was Jeff Moorad, who was part of the management group that hired Byrnes in his first GM stint in Arizona. And then Byrnes immediately was promoted to GM after Hoyer left. So there is some smoke that he didn't have full leeway. My hope would be that the Pohlads could entice him by offering control from the top down. And personally I don't think that a change in "loyalty" would necessarily be a sign of instability. The Pohlad's have provided tremendous support and control to Terry Ryan (and his baseball management team) for almost two decades now. I don't think it would a disingenuous for them to say that they would extend that same loyalty to a new regime.

It may not be about money but rather the opportunity to build his own successful organization. Hard to know how much that matters to him. I think it will definitely depend on if the Cubs with the WS or not. Also, the Twins have to be a fairly attractive location for a potential GM: good farm system, weak division, low expectations. I'm not sure there is an obvious "I'll wait for something better to open up" option on the horizon.

More or less. From Sickels this past offseason: "Palka was drafted by Arizona in the third round in 2013 out of Georgia Tech. He was traded to the Twins this past winter for catcher Chris Herrmann. Scouts have always respected Palka’s power but worried that his swing would be too long to work properly against advanced pitching. His strikeout rate is indeed high but so far the power has been enough to make him highly productive. This may or may not remain true in Double-A and higher, with production against left-handed pitching a particular question (.962 OPS vs. right-handers last year, but just .637 against lefties). Despite his size he is reasonably mobile, an effective baserunner and an adequate defender at either outfield corner as well as first base. I rather like Palka as a power-oriented role player. Grade C+."

Yeah, though I didn't find this very surprising. I thought his prospect lists were just kind of meh, though maybe he just got off to a really bad start and that clouded my perception. Either way, I wasn't paying too much attention to them. It wouldn't shock me if there was mutual agreement that it wasn't a good fit. In many ways I wish he had a weekly column, not unlike the fringe-five that Cistulli does, where he identifies a few under-the-radar hitters that he really likes. I think he has plenty of credibility with regard to predicting hitter performance based on swing mechanics (he almost single-handedly changed my pessimism on Park, which looks correct so far). But his overall prospect analysis seemed uninspired. I wasn't surprised when Kiley left last year, either, though for the opposite reason - he seemed like he was too good for the job and some team would hire him away.

I agree with all of this. In another thread, I had mentioned that Jed Hoyer might be a name to consider if the Cubs win it all this year. He might want a chance to get out from Epstein's shadow. Another organization I would consider is the Giants. They don't have the same public analytic cred, but a lot of sources have indicated that their analytics team is much better than publicly known. In addition, they are probably up there with the Cardinals in pure player development.

True. And if done smartly I would support that as well. Importantly, the Cubs have been able to bring in outside talent (of all levels: from elite to role-players; both safe and high-risk) without draining their farm system. Some of that is due to having money to burn, but lots of their moves have been savvy trades that the Twins could easily duplicate. Speaking of the Cubs, if they win the World Series this year I wonder if Jed Hoyer would be interested in being the top dog in another organization instead of playing second-fiddle to Epstein.

I obviously didn't make myself clear. I'm not advocating to "stay the course" (and frankly I have no idea why you decided you needed to quote a phrase that I never used in my comment). I think this organization absolutely needs a change in philosophy AND execution. And I want a new GM to come from outside the organization. And yes, I would prefer to win sooner than later. But I'm not willing to change course just for the sake of change. I would prefer to bring in a new GM that would: a) methodically clear dreck from the current roster continue to acquire assets to the minor league system c) provide playing time to the young players so they can develop at the big league level d) the team might not be really good until 2018, but set up to continually compete for several years thereafter. I would hate to see a new GM that would: a) use prospects to dump existing salary decimate the farm system to trade for good-but-not-great, expensive veteran talent c) sign free agents during one of the weakest free agent classes in years d) the team might be okay in 2017 and 2018, but then rebuilding will start anew. Basically, I would prefer the Cubs/Astros model rather than the Padres/Diamondbacks model, and honestly would prefer the current mess with the Twins to what the Padres and Diamondbacks have done over the past 18 months. (You apparently feel differently?) If the Twins promoted internally, I would be disappointed, but I would comfort myself that they didn't hire someone like Dave Stewart. I have certain standards for a GM and don't necessarily trust the Pohlads to meet them. I certainly don't think admitting that is the same as arguing that nothing should change and "stay the course" is the best plan.

I definitely will add my voice to the chorus hoping for an outside candidate for GM. However, I do have my reservations. There is a chance, maybe even a good chance, that after 6 straight mediocre-to-terrible seasons, the new GM will have a win-now (or win-soon) mandate from ownership. We all saw how quickly AJ Preller gutted the Padres farm system. At least someone from within the organization would have (or should have) an appreciation of the time and effort it has taken to rebuild the system over the past several years, and would hopefully be willing to ride it out for a couple more seasons. It would be exceedingly frustrating to see someone new come in and trade away Polanco, Stewart, Gordon, Jay, Gonsalves, Jorge, Wade, et al for quick fixes. And if (or once) that effort fails, to have to watch the rebuilding start anew. Now the right GM hire probably wouldn't make that mistake, but I'm not convinced the Pohlads would make the correct choice. During the interview process, it is certainly possible they would prefer a candidate that promises wins sooner rather than later.

... but I agree with basically everything. In order to compete this year, they needed the established players to hold the line, so to speak, and they needed a few of the young guys (Buxton, Sano, Berrios) to turn into superstars. So far neither is happening.

Steamer and ZiPS both projected Dozier to be a top-10 2B prior to this season. Both expected Plouffe to be just slightly below average 3B. From purely an offensive perspective, Steamer and PECOTA all projected Dozier, Plouffe and Escobar to hit better than they currently are, some of them significantly. Looking at the rest-of-season projections, all three projection systems are still projecting them to hit better over the remainder of the season. Now the projection systems all predicted the Twins to not be very competitive this season, so it is quite likely that Twins fans and management ALSO overvalued them. But I think 'underperforming' is a perfectly apt description for how Dozier, Plouffe and Escobar have performed so far.

I would add that he also can't seem to figure out when (at at what terms) to offer extensions. Suzuki, Hughes and Dozier were all questionable extensions.

I have a few thoughts about this: 1) As Riverbrian already mentioned, Milone pitched pretty well last year. At the same time, Fuld was pretty lousy last year and is on the DL this year. 2) Results aside, I have argued that the Twins have needed a Fuld-esque player on the roster - a 4th OF who is above average defensively at CF, who is old enough that there is no worries if he ends up sitting on the bench for days at a time, but who is good enough that it isn't the end of the world if he needs to play for a few days or a couple weeks. In the ideal, Sam Fuld is a better version of Shane Robinson and Jordan Schafer. So at a certain level, the team may have been better off keeping Fuld and replacing Milone with one of the internal options (Duffey, Berrios, May). (As an aside, I think that is the role that Rosario ultimately ends up at. But right now he is still young enough that he needs to play everyday.) 3) I have to admit that I am shocked that Milone wasn't picked up. I would have been willing to bet a lot of money to the contrary. (I guess I shouldn't quit my day job...). Prior to this, I thought it was completely reasonable to offer him arbitration last off season, and I thought his results thus far were more bad luck than anything else. But it now appears that no other team agrees with me, so I'm readjusting both those priors.

It is almost like they should have called up Mastroianni instead of Kepler a few weeks back to sit on the bench so Kepler could have 100+ AAA PAs under his belt by now. At least then he would have a decent chance of being ready to contribute in an everyday roll. Speaking of Kepler, he has struck out once (ONCE!) in 46 AAA PAs so far.

I think, based on their results from last year, that everyone (ownership, front office, and field staff) all thought they had the core of a contending team in place with Dozier, Plouffe, Mauer, Suzuki, Perkins, Gibson, Santana and Hughes, and that they didn't need to do much other than let the young guys (Sano, Buxton, Rosario, May et al) continue to develop.

Also, it is probably worth pointing out that Milone is the one incumbent starter that has a good chance of actually getting claimed, and thereby having some other organization pick up his salary. And if he doesn't get claimed, they can send him down to AAA. Nolasco, Hughes, Santana are all much less likely to be claimed (due to salary) and would have the option to be released if unclaimed - which means the Twins would still be on the hook for the rest of their salaries. So even if one thought that Milone is better than Nolasco/Hughes going forward, from a business perspective it is a no brainer.

Fien yes, Milone not so much. Considering the cost of starting pitching during the offseason, I think almost every organization would have brought Milone back for $4.5M.

I'm surprised that Milone was waived, and I don't doubt that some team will pick him and his salary up. In fact, I would be surprised if he made it to the NL portion of the waiver wire. His ERA is terrible, but that is almost entirely based on a high BABIP (.313 vs .294 career average), high LOB% (61.5% vs 72% career average), and an extremely high HR/FB rate (23.8% - twice his career average). Those all are among the noisiest stats in small samples. The rest of his peripherals (the ones that stabilize quicker) are solid - he actually has the highest K% and GB% of his career. And consider this alternate history: 1) Against the Angels, instead of allowing Milone to face the heart of the order for the 3rd time, they just thank him for the six solid innings and bring in a reliever to start the 7th. Two fewer homers and three fewer runs allowed. 2) Against the Brewers, Tonkin actually gets Braun out rather than walking him and then allowing the double to Lucroy. Three fewer runs charged to Milone. Those two changes - both totally reasonable and mostly out of Milone's control - would have him with a 3.50 ERA and a 4.00 FIP. Maybe he still gets dumped in that case, but I doubt it. On second thought, it doesn't surprise me that this organization wouldn't look past ERA.

I clicked on all 30 names, and the Twins weren't mentioned anywhere. From the looks of things, it appears that the Brave, Padres and Nats have at least 50% of the top players. I haven't heard the Twins mentioned from any of the other international signing blurbs that I've seen.

It was originally devised by Bill James to rate pitching performances. You start the game with 50 points, and then points are added or subtracted for the various good (Ks, outs, etc) and bad (hits, homers, walks) events of the game. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_score People have created other flavors, but that is the general concept.

When I saw the tweet about the Braves looking to trade for picks, I thought about a potential Twins-Braves swap centered around Nolasco and, incorrectly, both Compensation Picks. I didn't realize the other one wasn't tradeable. And I hoped the Braves had someone (maybe a overpriced-but-decent reliever) to trade back. But looking at the roster I can't really see anyone of interest, especially now that the Twins have started the season so poorly.

Why not? I thought the Competitive Balance picks were tradeable.

Two thoughts: 1) Has anyone heard if Meyer was under any particular pitch count restrictions? I wouldn't be shocked if he was under a pretty tight pitch count considering he has thrown all of 1 inning over the past two weeks. He finished with 65 pitches. Also, I know the Twins, at least with some of the minor league guys, have per-inning pitch counts, and if the pitcher exceeds that in any inning their night is over. Meyer threw 28 pitches without getting out of the 3rd inning. Maybe that was the reason he was pulled? 2) His velocity did drop quite a bit by the 3rd inning, relatively speaking. In the 1st, his fastball averaged 97, and he didn't have a single pitch below 96. In the 3rd, he only had a single fastball over 97, and by the end of the inning he was sitting at 94 - his slowest fastballs of the night. There is a school of thought that pitchers are more likely to injure themselves when they pitch tired, so maybe they were trying to protect him? I obviously don't know anything. But it certainly wouldn't shock me, considering Meyer's arm problems over the years, that the Twins would have some strict guidelines to limit his usage and would have a quick hook in place when he reaches to limits or appears to be tiring.

What do you think about Abad? Frankly, he might be more valuable than any other name you listed (assuming he keeps this up) - teams always seem willing to overpay for relief help at the deadline. But he is still under team control for 2017 and would be useful next year.