old nurse

So part of the root cause of the Twins' problems is thankfully gone. A few more remain... Good to see a young 30 something replacing Rantz. At least he grew up with computers Are you even aware that computers are only as good ad the person programming them. The same data about players is available now as when when he started. You remain clueless what people of any age are capable of. Brock can give me a weeks vacation from this boar but Thyrloss's cluelessness about people older than thirty is sickening.

The stage that is the Twin Cities is not very big. Look where most of the big free agents go. It is not the midwest mid sized market cities. If the Twins were near championship level it might attract a big time free agent. They are not near that level. The Twins signed some of their own players to large contracts to keep them. If Santana had wanted to stay here, the Twins would have paid him. Puckett wanted to stay here, they paid him.

Bob Tewksbury got a 2 year deal, but that's it. I too am a cynic as the arguement that Ryan never had any money to work with seems pretty thin. There was always money when it came to extending the legacy guys. Why there was money for the Miltons, Mays', Blackburns and Bakers of this world but none for pitchers proven else where shows this front office is not nearly open-minded enough when it comes to other teams pitchers. Also, Ryan took over in 1994 when the team still had plenty of offensive talent to compete and MLB payrolls weren't out of control. He was signing washed up vets like Tewksbury, Jim Deshaies, Mike Morgan, Greg Swindell and Sean Bergman back in the 1990's too. Tewksbury had a WAR of 3 each year he pitched for the Twins, In 93 Deshaies had a war of 2.6. Contrast that with the WAR of Marcum 3.1 and 1.7 over the last two years.Single statistic analysis, but they pitched for some bad Twins teams. Milton for the Twins was worth every penny they paid him. They were not going to be able to afford him, that is why he was traded. The Twins would love to get a pitcher like him when he was here. Joe Mays had a phenomenal 2001 season and they paid out for his arbitration years. Then he got injured. I do not know why they signed Blackburn for so long (Nor have I ever read a reason why). The Mays and the Bakers show why they would be reluctant to sign a pitcher for more than two years. If they are a pitcher from another system why are they available? Star seeking a big contract, not a star seeking a big contract, or not very good looking for a contract. You are not going to sign the latter two groups to a long term contract. The star is not going to come here unless they are overpaid.

He developed the talent he had as well as anyone could have.

Ah yes, there is where we will find the many answers for who are affordable pitchers

How to find a spot for Chavez 1. Stop carrying a million guys in the pen. 2. Stop carrying three catchers. Boom, problem solved. Needed so many bullpen arms due to starters who were only going a few innings before imploding. So they need to find pitchers who can consistently pitch through the seventh inning to not need so many bullpen arms. In case you missed a few games this year, catchers number 1 and 2 were also your backup first basemen, DH and outfielder. Doumit played 22 games in the outfield, 48 as DH. Mauer 30 games at 1st, 42 at DH. If they are combining to spend the equivalent of a full season away from behind the plate. There needs to be a third catcher.

Platoon players went out with the four man pitching staffs and iron man bullpens. Thee team has 7 players for the 6 OF/C/1B/DH positions. They have a fourth outfielder. Two thirdbase only types would not be productive. Moving Ploufe around would not work. Why do you think he was tried at third anyway?

The trade should be Butera forStoren to make the last trade even

Having Liriano come back is only slightly less "out there" than thinking a healthy Josh Johnson would bypass the prime years of free agency for a discount of 4 years/75 million. The only way to bring back a Liriano is on a minor league contract.

Minor. League. Contracts. The disheartning part is that I would have expected a gem to be uncovered by you guys. Maybe I will have to wait until you guys talk about the Rule 5 draft.. The Twins can't have too many minor league contracts, there would be those complaining that the older playerr is blocking a prospect.

Or you become the Oakland A's. Look at their roster and see the talent they aquired by trading good players frooor prospects. You make trades like a catcher for a closer, a tantalizing prospect, and a guy you were flat out wrong on. The Twins have to figure outt how to develop pitchers. Why would a free agent come here at this time? One would be that they were offered more here than anywhere else. Two would be they did not get an offer they like and had good numbers when pitching a Target Field so a year pitching there would get them a better paycheck. Three is no one else would sign them. Four is they believe they can carry a team to a championship and what better team than the Twins? The least likely of them all for a reason they would sign here: I lived here when I was real young so I am going to sign for a huge discount.

never said that Johnson would be the "typical" Twins signing, in fact he would go against the grain quite a bit, which would actually be a good thing. Give me the high risk high reward signing of Josh Johnson rather then paying close to the same amount for the low risk low reward Shawn Marcum or the like. You were the one who said the Twins wouldn't give out a big contract to a player with injury history, I provided two examples of players they did give multi year deals to that had significant injury histories. In 3 of the past 4 years he pitched either 200 IP or very close to that, yes, he isn't going to give you every start every year but as long as he gives you 28-30 I would certainly live with that, again give me the high risk, high reward. If Marcum gets Josh Johnson kind of money you would have a point. He won't get that kind of money, so you don't have a point

The point was the Twins cannot afford to had a player making that kind of money hurt and not playing. Johnnson's career is not about playing a full season. Can I make it any simpler for you. By innings pitched per year with starts per year, Johnson does not rate that kind of money from an organization like the Twins. I won't clutter things up with examples of how this works because it only seems to confuse you. Didn't the twins give 184 million a couple year ago to a guy who had "injury issues"?? Also they gave a 3 year contract to Pavano as well, who has had a few injury issues of his Also you aren't confusing me at all, champ. Keep trying to make me out to be the simpleton who doesn't understand baseball...it won't end well for ya. Yes in 2011 he was hurt, but in the 3 years surrounding that he averaged over 190 IP, which actually is quite a bit more then ANY pitcher pitched for our 2012 Twins You mention the problems in the Twins contracts with players with injury history and still can't see giving that large of contract? It won't end well for me? ??? Threatning people?

The point was the Twins cannot afford to had a player making that kind of money hurt and not playing. Johnnson's career is not about playing a full season. Can I make it any simpler for you. By innings pitched per year with starts per year, Johnson does not rate that kind of money from an organization like the Twins. I won't clutter things up with examples of how this works because it only seems to confuse you.

Johnson has had less than half his seasons in the majors where he has made all of his starts. Call the reason why what you will. Those reasons will likely continue. As Johnson would take a huge chunk of the team's budget the Twins cannot afford the down time. The effect would be disasterous. If you cannot understand that concept look at Pavano. He missed a lot of time through his career. He had one healthy yearwith the Twins and was signed for longer term. With that money tied up in Pavano not pitching what did the Twins have as a replacement? Yes any player can go down with an injury, but why would you want someone with a track record of it? See 2007, 2008 and 2011 for Johnson.

for a baseball junkie to come up with these for options is disheartening. Not quite as bad though as mortgaging the future fore an oft injured pitcher that will take a good chunk of your payroll

Look at every trade made by a team moving a starting pitcher. They get pitching back. The Marlins are going to be different??? In only one year has Johnson ever pitched more than 200 ininngs. Only twice has he made more than 30 starts. For a team like the Twins he is not worth the risk. See Pavano's salary this year. There ought to be better risks out there than Johnson given his probable salary if signed to an extension. It wold be unrealistic to think he would bypass free agency for a contract that was less than what he is making now. I doubt there would be a hometown discount unless the Twins were playing at All Sports Stadium

In ability yes. In cost versus durability no. See Carl Pavano 2012.

If expecting your "Ace" to pitch every 5th day and to go into the 7th inning arbitrary, then 200 inning is an arbitrary number. If you are paying someone 13 or more per year to pitch, I really don't think the expectation is unreasonable.. If your starters can't go but six innings then you start to need 8 people in the bullpen. Do the math.

9 months from now, if Appel is the third best player available, the Twins will take him. Last year they thought Buxton was better than Apple. There is a likelihood of one of the top two teams doing something out of the box with their pick unless the second coming of Strasberg, Harper and Price magically appear. That is why I think the Twins will get the third best player regardless of position. The argument against college pitchers is the abuse college coaches do to top pitchers. Perhaps drafting someone like Gonsalves or Holton, pitchers coming out of high school, would be a better idea.

Did this spin out of control or what? I am sorry for trying to disprove everything Dave said on for trading for Josh Johnson. Perhaps I need a spirit of some sort like Vodka to make sense of Dave's fascination with a pitcher that does not have a track record of pitching 200 innings a year, much less 7 innings a game. His rental price for one year would be one of the few people plating middle infield in the system with a high upside. Every trade for starting pitching has given up potential starters at a high level. I give up.

The top batters are similarly first round picks and I acknowledged so, but my theory is that top position players are far less important that top pitchers. As I mentioned, on a daily basis, a team can make up for the lack of production from a super-star batter by having other quality players make up for the lost runs; you cannot do that with a starting pitcher. A good reliever can stop the bleeding, but he cannot get back those runs your league average starting pitchers contiunally give up. I'm sure there are some real GM's who take the same approach to the draft, though they may not admit it to their fan base. I'm guessing it would be more common at the end of the 1st round than at the beginning. In most drafts, the talent can fall of quickly after a certain point at the top of first round, and like last year the argument is looking like it's over a potential All star hitter and a #2 pitcher, instead of All star hitter and a # 1 pitcher. It's funny, there are always some light hitting shortstops who make it into the 1st round projections, because there the best "True" player at their position. I think a lot of mocks and lists take position scarcity into account already. By your logic then in 2005 the Nationals with the 4th pick rather than Ryan Zimmerman they should have taken Mike Pelfrey (first pitcher taken after Zimmerman). With a high pick you need to pick the best player available. More drafts than not it will be a pitcher, but if the right player is still available, you take that player. If you look at the pitchers taken in the top quarter of the draft between 2005-2010 you will find bonafide star pitchers taken within the first couple of selections. After that, a few pitchers that are stars, but twice as many flat out busts as stars and an equal number of serviceable number three pitchers as busts. Selecting a pitcher is no sure bet.

Exactly. Like I said earlier, it took Hanley to get Josh Beckett moved. I would almost guarantee it takes Sano to get Johnson moved. The Marlins had huge reported offers this summer and didn't move him, so I doubt they'll move him without a big return. It took Gomez and Humber to get Johan... DING DING DING! And Johan had a long term contract in place before they accepted the trade AND Johan was the best pitcher in all of baseball. 2 prospects in BA's top 52, yet another in the top 100, and another in the Mets top 10 for Baseball America. Yep, not valuable prospects at all! Gotta love Dave for his persistence. In the Grienke and Sanchez deals it took multiple AA pitchers as well as a near major league ready prospect to get the deals done. I don't think Hirschfield, Darnell and or Hermsen is exactly going to cause teams to drool.

Would not the same single factor analysis of batters show the same trend as for pitchers? For the most part they would be high draft picks? If the analysis of the pitching prospects is of a low ceiling versus a higher ceiling batter, shouldn't you take the position player? Lastly, there were 20 hitters with a WAR above 5.2 and only 4 pitchers. That would leave me to believe that the probability of drafting a superstar with an early pick would be to grab the best player available even if it is a position player. Also note that 3 of the top 10 pitchers were on playoff teams while 10 of the top 20 batter were on playoff teams

Given his health history, it's equally likely he has no value at the deadline. Equally as likely? Give me a god damn break. Does he have the potential to get injured? Sure, but not let's act like it is some forgone conclusion or anything even close to that: Observe: 2009: 207 IP 2010: 183.2 IP 2011:60.1 IP 2012:191.1 P Is JJ not getting all of his starts per year or is he a less than 6 innings a game pitcher? 32-34 starts a year should get the pitcher 220 innings? 2010 he had 28 starts and 31 this year. You say he is an ace yet expect that he will sigh for number two money at a less than ideal contract length and money for him. You expect the Marlins to trade for him for a low level high ceiling prospect and throw ins. For the money that would still be about 15% of the payroll you would need a spot starter and a pitcher to get you through the seventh along with your set up man and closer. That sounds like a trade that will not happen, a signing that will not happen and a need for a very good bullpen.