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Chris Crawford had a chat over at baseball prospectus (can't copy/paste the chat) and answered some draft questions. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=1245

From Keith Law's chat this week: Assuming Dillon Tate maintains his current pace, is he a dark horse for 1/1? Klaw (10:07 AM) I thought he was before the season, given the scarcity of legit 1-1 candidates - at that point it was Aiken, Matuella, and if you squinted really hard maybe Rodgers, although I don't think that's the kind of player AZ would target. Tate reminds me a little of Verlander in the latter's junior year - has the stuff, looks right, isn't that refined due to command/control. Can Carson Fulmer stay in the rotation and if so where would you project him? Klaw (10:13 AM) I believe he'll end up in the bullpen in pro ball due to his delivery. Who are the best college bats in the draft this year? I'm trying to get a sense for the options for the Cubs at 9. Klaw (10:17 AM) It's a terrible draft for a college bat. Ian Happ at Cincinnati might be the best. Dansby Swanson at Vanderbilt is another top ten type, but that's more based on the potential for him to play shortstop. I saw Richie Martin at Florida the other night - there's a blog post on him somewhere in turnaround at the moment - and he's not at this level. I love Alex Bregman's bat, but he's not a SS long-term. Why isn't Bregman a SS? Range or arm? And does that mean he's destined for 2B? Klaw (10:24 AM) Range and arm. 40 runner with a 45ish arm. Second base is his best option. How close to MLB ready is Aiken? If the Diamondbacks drafted him, where would he rank among the other top prospect arms? Klaw (11:09 AM) I'd say between two and three years away. Was always very advanced for his age, and I believe the plan for him at IMG will allow him to pitch a full pro summer this year, which sets him up to reach high-A by next summer if all goes well. Will Aiken consent to be redrafted? If he doesn't, slot might be less than the 5 million he turned down from the Astros. Klaw (11:12 AM) No, he won't, nor will Nix. I don't think that guarantees he'll get less, though; someone could go over slot for him.

Mayo's article on Rodgers: http://m.redsox.mlb.com/news/article/110349552/path-to-the-draft-top-prospect-brendan-rodgers-puts-the-work-in Callis on Aiken going to IMG Academy: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/110507572/former-top-draft-pick-brady-aiken-enrolls-at-img-academy

A few draft notes from Crawford: Tweets: Florida state's D.J. Stewart went 2/2 today with two HRs and a walk. Walker buehler threw for candy today; two scoreless innings with 2K and 2BB. There are many that I've spoken with who believe buehler is the top pitching prospect in the class, ahead of both Aiken/Matuella. (Crawford disagrees but things he is a good prospect) Crawford also wrote an ESPN (insider article). Here are a few scout notes from it. Scout on Matuellas 26 pitch outing: “He labored,” an NL Central scout said. “Which shouldn’t come to a surprise to anyone after missing two-plus weeks. It certainly wasn’t a special start by any standard, but it was a necessary building block towards him getting healthy, and here’s hoping we see the version was saw this summer starting this weekend.” Scout on Allard's first outing of the year: “I doubt I see a better prep pitcher this year [than Allard],” an NL scout said. “It’s probably a lazy comparison but he really does remind me of Brady Aiken, outside of the size. I saw two plus pitches today, and the only complaint I have is I would have liked to see the changeup. I know that pitch is there though, so that’s not as big a deal. There’s a pretty good chance that he’s a special arm assuming he can hold up.” Notes on Tate after the 5-1 loss to Duke: “The first five innings he looked like a top three pick,” an AL scout said. “The fastball was plus-plus, the slider was plus, and he pulled the string on a couple of changeups, too. The last couple of innings weren’t as impressive, but it’s not a surprise to see a 21 year-old struggling to hold stuff in a game in late February.” He also had notes on buehler, Swanson, fulmer, and bergam. http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=2163

From Kiley McDaniel's chat today: What are your thoughts on Funkhouser? Kiley McDaniel: Seen him 5 or 6 times. Without fail, every time he’s been 91-95 t97, 55-60 SL, 50 CH, command flashes 50, solid chance to be #3 starter, but still some feel issues here and there. I’d guess 8-15 in the first round if he keeps this up. A lot of draft talk on the net lately, even some mock drafts Ive seen. Kiley can you see our Michigan boy Nick Plummer getting inside the top 15 picks this June? Kiley McDaniel: Definitely possible. And dont read mock draft this early. They are completely useless. Some scouting directors haven’t even seen the players people are projecting them to take. Ian Happ – is he top 20 pick and what dose he need to do do hold on to a similar draft position? Kiley McDaniel: He’s playing RF right now but he might be able to play 2B in pro ball. Probably 10-20 right now, maybe top 10 if he gets hot. Does Mantuela’s injury/health issue (Spondylosis) put him in line for a significant drop on draft day? Kiley McDaniel: Not in this crappy draft class Who has the best profile, based on offense only, of D.J. Stewart, Gio Brussa, Chris Shaw and Richie Martin? Kiley McDaniel: Martin is clearly last, other three are all close. I’d go Shaw, Stewart, Brusa. Who would be the best comp. for Brendan Rodgers? Kiley McDaniel: Not an easy one, but the people that like him note some similarities to Tulo. Generally similar to last year’s top prep SS, also from Orlando area, Nick Gordon…but Rodgers is a RHH, has more bat speed/power, less physical projection and less arm…so more just generally the same caliber of player than really the same. How often does an “out of nowhere” (pre-season) guy jump onto first the 2-3 rounds of a draft? Basically, how do guys that you weren’t really expected (and possibly never heard of) before the year started get draft in the first 100 picks? Kiley McDaniel: They get better? if I can make a top 100 for the draft in October, that means I have another 100-200 guys that were in contention or that I know about. All the pop up guys I’ve heard about this year have been in that 250-300 mega-list of draft players. Some come from completely off the radar like Nick Wells last year, but that’s usually under 5 per draft class. Wells didn’t go to many events and went from like 82-85 in the fall to flashing 89-93 in the spring. You can’t predict that. What’s the biggest reason Dillon Tate is moving up draft boards? Any other big risers into the top 15 so far? Kiley McDaniel: He’s an athlete with big stuff that had never started. Now we know the stuff plays in long outing and he can hold his velo and his command has improved. Kinda answered every big question in a few outings. Have you heard anything about Kyler Murray and if he’d seriously accept a signing bonus to play baseball instead of going to Texas A&M? Too early to tell? Kiley McDaniel: Wrote a bunch about him back in October http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… Sounds like he’ll be open to taking big money in the top 15 picks if his talent warrants that. Still early to know if that’ll happen. Is Daz Cameron all hype or is there actual huge upside there? Kiley McDaniel: He’s a mid first rounder comparable to mid first rounder last year Derek Hill.

If Close/Aiken dont sign off that would significantly increase our chances of landing Aiken. If Aiken doesn't fall to us there are two other solid LHPers in Allard and Kirby who might be options at #6.

From Kiley McDaniel: Typical early season type notes on Allard's start today: 3 IP, 91-93, no change ups, varying feel for breaking ball, 8Ks, looked easy.

Every year top prospects rise and fall before the draft but this years crop of prospects feels different. At least to me it feels like this might be the hardest year to pin point who the Twins will target. Normally I have a personal draft board ready right after the draft but this year I have been struggling with it. Maybe that's just me. Allard and Aiken are my current favorites. Ian Happ was a personal favorite even before his monster week (10-14, 2 2B, 2 Hr, 1 SB, 1 BB). He reminds me of one of my favorite prospects from last year, Kyle Zimmer. Solid all around package.

I don't understand obsessing over results in the minors, especially in the low minors. The point of minor league baseball is development. That's why they are called prospects. The Twins, fans who follow the draft, knew Stewart was a thrower and would need to learn how to be a pitcher. That is what he did this year. Only thing that worries me about Stewart, any pitching prospect, is injury

Ideal size: Stewart......Meyers, Berrios Athletic ability: Stewart, Berrios, Meyer Pitch movement: Meyer/Stewart......Berrios I would also argue with the stuff between Meyer and Stewart. Meyer has two 70s, a 50 (depending on the scouting report), and no big league 4th pitch. Stewart currently has a 65,60, and two 50s with a chance his last three pitches all get bumped a grade once he truly learns to pitch. Which package truly has more upside? No idea but I don't believe Meyer has that big of gap in stuff if any with Stewart. Stewart has only focused on baseball for one year while the other two it has always been their preferred sport. In the end I see the argument for anyone to be #1 but I believe Stewart is getting knocked for inexperience which people should have expected.

Fun topic. Prospect experts seem to be all over the place with these three. I know I'm in the minority but I still have Stewart #1 (#3 overall in the system). I just think he has the best overall package.

Did someone from TD hack baseball prospectus and change their list? I'm a huge fan of the Twins system but damn! A lot of Twins love. As a Stewart bandwagoner even I'm surprised they have him at #28. That's even rich for me.

Mlb.com has Gordon ranked #33 and has 3 other 2014 draft prospects ranked ahead of him. Law has Gordon ranked #43 and also only has 3 2014 draft prospects ahead of him. He would still go top 5 I'm guessing.

I wouldn't call it hate. I have no problem with the ranking, seeing you know, it's his ranking. How many times has someone told you how great a band is, or a movie, or a TV show and then you watch it and you don't get it? Law is just going off what he has seen, what his contacts have told him, and off the things he values when grading prospects. Part of the fun of prospect lists is the debate IMO.

Keith Law released his Twins top 10 prospect list today. 1. Buxton 2. Sano 3. Meyer 4. Gordon 5. Stewart 6. Berrios 7. Thorpe 8. Rosario 9. Polanco 10. Minier It is a solid article worth reading if you have insider. He talks about Santana vs polanco, names Thorpe is sleeper next year (was his last year), and gives most of his rankings 11-19. 11. May 12. Reed 13. Burdi 14. Kepler 15. Michael 16. Hu 17. Harrison 18. Cederoth/gonsalves (both were labeled at 18)

Twins questions from his chat: Lots of people in MN think Stewart is a bust b/c of his low strike out totals. Can you calm them down? Klaw (1:48 PM) That's stupid. He's barely out of HS and was as much a thrower as a pitcher when he was drafted. I think the Twins have already done a hell of a job with him. Correa breaks his leg, loses a season and climbs in the rankings but Sano loses a season and gets dropped 10 spots? What gives? Klaw (1:48 PM) Correa didn't lose a season. Try again. I'm hoping you're wrong on Berrios, although 97th isn't necessarily awful. He looked pretty darn good against older competition in the Futures Game and WBC. Being a fly ball type of guy at Target Field can't hurt right? Klaw (1:59 PM) I don't think being a flyball guy is a good thing unless you're in Petco or AT&T Park. And Berrios' fastball is going to get squared up. Is Max Kepler completely out of time at this point to become a viable major leaguer? Klaw (2:02 PM) No, not at all. I think he's a big leaguer in some form, but to be an everyday player his BP power must show up in games.

In all the years I have followed minor league prospects I can't remember a SS group this deep. So much talent. Excited to see what kind of numbers Gordon will put up this year.

While you suggest people put to much importance into first round picks I could easily suggest to much importance is put into close to the majors talent. Historical first round picks, especially top 5 picks, not only have a significantly higher chance to make it to the bigs but to also be impact players. Personally when evaluating prospects I like to use all the information I have available to rank them. This is a prospect list and not just a whom will help next year list. (P.S. hopefully this didn't come of as an attack. Everyone grades prospects differently which is part of the fun.)

Outside of moving Polanco behind Rosario I have the same top 10. I'm glad to see I'm not the only one still on the Stewart bandwagon. If he can stay healthy I just don't see a pitcher with better overall package. Nice list.

Kiley reported well before anyone else last year that the Yankees were going to spend $15-20M on international talent so this is definitely worth following. He has pretty good sources.

Do you need an ace to win the WS? No. Do you need an elite QB to win the super bowl? No. Do you need an elite goalie to win the cup? No. Do you need a top 5 star to win an NBA championship? No. Would you rather have one than not have one? Heck yeah! Playoffs are fluky. Momentum can be more important than talent but that doesn't mean a team shouldn't try to acquire the best players possible. People can point at X series vs Y series vs Z series all they want but in the end there is not enough data to prove anything. In the end having more talent than the other team never hurts.

You make a great point that not only do we have a ton of pitching prospects but they are also close to the bigs so BPA vs need won't be the same as past years. While I always support BPA I understand why people could still want the Twins to focus on pitching because we all know you can never have enough of it. You know...and there are a ton of interesting arms this year. Regardless if the big league rotation has 0-5 lefties in it I'm always a fan of drafting as many lefty arms as possible. If you have two equal pitching prospects give me the lefty because there are so few of them. That being said I wouldn't want the Twins to reach for one over better righty pitchers (which they won't). Currently my favorite LHPer outside of Aiken (if healthy) is kolby Allard. Law had him ranked #5 on his board and here is what he had to say: "The 6-foot Allard was by far the best prep pitcher on the showcase circuit over the summer, showing easy 92-95 mph velocity with a plus curveball, along with an athletic body and some room to fill out." While he is small he already has plus fastball velocity and a plus curve ball (my favorite secondary pitch).

It's really impressive how much the mlb draft threads have improved over the last three years. So many people taking part so early. I love it as a draft junkie. For fans of Christopher Crawford he started a new site after last years draft and he already has his top 15 HS hitters, HS pitchers, college hitters, and college pitchers lists up. Here is a link to his newish site: http://www.drafttotheshow.com

I once heard Mel kiper say lists are for me but mocks are for the fans. Even the day before the draft mocks are still not right. The fact that 10 out of the 15 players you named went in the top 15 proves to me why you can follow this early. Some times players move because injuries, some because development, and some just because of money.

To me this feels like Nolasco 2.0. Just can't get excited about the possibility of signing a 32 year old for 4-5 years unless he is an ace.