cmb0252

After reviewing the FA starting class for not only this year but next year I have to agree with Seth. The best way to acquire a top arm most likely will be via a trade. Whom? Not sure. Only top end names I have heard floated are Lee and Price. I'm all for the Twins spending big, they really need to, but most of the "top arms" aren't exactly what you would normally call top arms. This quite possibly is the most sucky FA pitching class in 10 years. The only guy I personally really like is Tanaka.

Thanks for the input.

They defiantly seem like Twins targets. Neither will need large contracts or cost compensation picks. Last week Jon Heyman asked a rival GM if the Yankees would offer Hughes a qualifying offer and he had a pretty funny line in response. "They may make a qualifying offer. And I may run for president."

Me too. Would fill a need, match age wise, and bring much needed (good) media attention to the team hosting the ASG this year. Ben Badler at BA mentioned his total will pass Ryu's 62M but won't hit Darvish's 100M+ number.

Tim Diekers at Mlbtraderumors.com ranked the top 34 starting FA pitchers for next year. Here is what he had to say about the crop of arms: "Sometimes, there's just not a $100MM free agent pitcher out there. C.J. Wilsonbenefited from a weak free agent starting pitching class after the 2011 season, nabbing $77.5MM to lead the group. In the upcoming offseason, the top end of the starting pitcher segment is similarly uninspiring. Here are my early rankings, which are subject to change." Here are his top 5: Matt Garza - In terms of pure free agent starters, I think Garza will receive the largest contract this offseason. He's ineligible to receive a qualifying offer because he was traded midseason, which boosts his value. He may have quieted health concerns by making all of his starts since his May 21st big league season debut and averaging nearly seven innings per start. Masahiro Tanaka - Tanaka, a righty with the Rakuten Golden Eagles, is not technically a free agent but belongs here since he can be obtained by bidding the most (assuming he is posted). I don't want to give too much credit to the unknown, but there are some who would take Tanaka over Garza, especially since Tanaka will pitch next year at age 25. Ervin Santana - A quality arm whose stock will be damaged by a qualifying offer, if he turns one down and reaches the open market. Hiroki Kuroda - He'll play next season at age 39, but in feedback on early drafts of this list, most thought he should be this high. A.J. Burnett - Burnett said in March he wouldn't want to play anywhere but Pittsburgh, and I imagine the team's success this year only solidifies that stance. To see his full list here is the link: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/09/top-34-free-agent-starters.html

Oh balls, I didn't notice our schedule was comparable to the other teams. Hopefully we stay in the top 5 for one more year before showing some improvement next year.

With Buxton and Hicks in the same outfield the other corner outfielder could be Jim Thome and we would still have an above average defensive outfield. Arcia should be fine in RF.

Counterattack? Is it so crazy to want the people who are complaining about not signing a guy to use factual information to why they want the Twins to sign a player a counterattack? I just want to hear from someone who actually likes Guerrero. I just don't see what there is to be upset about.

Puig isn't relevant. Puig was highly touted 21 year old Cuban prospect who was considered raw but had a super star ceiling. Guerrero is a 26 year old 2B who hasnt played baseball in two years and most likely will start next year in AAA or possibly AA. None one has suggested he is anything more than an above average regular with some reports suggesting he is a utility player. Outside of being Cuban and signing with the Dodgers I don't see reason to compare the two.

I have tons of opinions on players. I have been leading the bandwagon for signing Tanaka since I read his scouting reports. Signing Guerrero isn't like signing Willngham, Greinke, or other established big leaguers. International guys are a lot more difficult to peg. Especially ones who haven't player in two years. Is it really that hard for people to think the Twins didn't sign him because they weren't all that impressed?

Please someone, anyone, make an argument for signing Guerrero based on scouting reports and data. In 17 pages of this thread no one has made a solid argument why we should sign him outside of not being cheap. Everyone who thinks he will be a SS even though most experts don't agree make the argument. People who believe he can hit major league pitching even though there are question marks about his ability to hit breaking pitch make an argument. People who think he will be able to immediately adjust to a significantly harder league after taking two years off make the argument. Whining about every player Ryan doesn't sign because"Ryan is cheap" is lazy. Please, explain to us why it was a mistake not to sign this guy because of actual data.

While it is true he is raw he already posses 2 plus pitches and 2 average pitches. As someone who follows prospects that is incredibly rare, especially for HSers. Add in his hard work ethic, good pitching frame, and freakish athletic ability and its hard not to get excited. He still needs to learn how to be a pitcher and not a thrower but that will come with experience.

I don't disagree that Ryan comes off as gun shy when it comes to spending money. As you said his long history as GM shows this. I just can't get mad about not spending big money on a guy with so many question marks around him. There were a lot of different scouting reports about him ranging from utility player to power hitting SS. Without knowing what our scouts saw it is really hard to judge this none move. International signings are a lot different than normal FA signings.

While the Twins were one of the handful of teams interested in him there is no evidence on how interested we really were. There were a ton of mixed reports on what type of player Guerrero is. Is he a 2B or SS? If he profiles as a 2B is it worth spending money on what looks like a position of strength? Can he adjust to big league pitching (especially breaking balls)? Will his raw power play in the bigs? Has his two years away from baseball hurt his game? Does he like lakes? With out knowing what the Twins scouting reports looked like on him it is hard to judge.

The problem with this scenario is what stops the Dodgers from counter offering our offer? At some point you have to cut your loses and move on just being happy you up bid another team. I'm not saying that is what happened, no one outside of the front office knows, but getting into a bidding war with Dodgers is a dangerous game!

Good. More money for Tanaka!

Good call mentioning the Brewers. I forgot to mention they are .5 games behind us. With how deep this draft looks currently as long as we are in the top 8 I see us getting a true elite talent. For those who care more about need the BPA will be happy seeing currently the drafts strength is pitching/SS. Might be another HS guy but getting elite talent is getting elite talent.

Thanks for posting this. In all the negative talk on the forum, which is to be expected, I always enjoy reading positive threads. Solid list. Really well done. I would have Stewart at #3, Kepler at #10, and Vargas/Logan out with Harrison/Santana in. As you said in your post you like guys who have performed in higher levels while I prefer tools. Just a preference thing. Bold prediction! If Stewart has a good instructionals and starts in CR I think he finishes the year in A+ and jumps on the Buxton timeline. I have faith!

After dropping 4 straight games, 1 to the lastros and 3 to the blue jays, the Twins are 5th in the reverse standing. With 22 games left the twins only have 4 games verse teams under .500 so we have a chance to move up a few picks. The #1 and #2 picks are out of reach but we are 4.5 behind the white Sox, whom we play 3 times, and 1.5 behind the cubs. Is pick #3 and #5 all that different value wise? Historically there is not really a statistical difference between the two but under the new system where money is capped I would argue there is a huge difference. Take last year for example. Would you rather have Stewart at slot or Gray at under slot? Only a pick difference.

I respectfully disagree. What was way off the deep end were the expectations and standards we held Hicks to. Due to injuries, trades, and a hot spring training (which means nothing) Hicks was prematurely rushed to the bigs. Hicks promotion was not only a hot topic around here because of its financial implications but because of Hicks history in the minors. Not only is Hicks a historically slow starter, most switch hitters are, but also a slow developer. After a "massive" 313 plate appearances people are already writing him off. Depending on who's defensive stat you prefer, fangraphs vs baseball reference, Hicks goes from a -.8 WAR to a .6 WAR. Looking at his monthly splits: Mar/April- BA .113, OBP .229, SLG .127, OPS .356, 26/11 K/BB May- .202, .250, .457, .707, 23/6 June- .280, .308, .400, .708 7/1 (was injured) July- .230, .292, .379, .671 26/6 I see a historically slow start (expected) which was amplified by jumping a level (also expected) before getting injured once he finally starts to find a groove. Yes, he defiantly could have been better. And yes, it was a disappointing year but what were people expecting from Hicks that so many people have already given up on him after ~300 PA?

John Sickles did a write up on Mr.Pinto that was pretty solid. I agree with what John said his possible ability to stay in the majors: "Still, even an average glove behind the plate is just fine if he hits enough. And at this point, it looks like Pinto can hit. If he can hit .260/.330/.400 with reasonably adequate defense, he would take a lot of pressure off Mauer." As fans we love our superstars but big league average/slightly above average players are valuable in their own right. I think Pinto has a solid chance to help the Twins going forward. Here is the full article from Sickels: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/9/6/4692510/prospect-note-josmil-pinto-c-minnesota-twins-scouting-report

It amazes me how many people have already written off Hicks. People have been spoiled with great performances by top 10 prospects recently that they expect every prospect to set the world on fire after taking the biggest leap of their career. I have no worries that Hicks can at least become an average CFer, which is pretty valuable, with a ceiling for much more.

None of these guys excite me. I'm all for the Twins signing some much needed pitching but the FA market is so unimpressive.

Ike Davis to Ellsbury. That escalated quickly. I just brought up Davis because he will be cheap, fills a need, has some upside, and Sherman linked him to the Twins. A low end prospect and $4m should be able to get Davis which is not much. If the Twins are opening up the check book go for a pitcher.

24 games left and only 7 vs teams under .500. I will go 70 exactly.