Oxtung

Top of the list? Every thing I've read, even before Liriano tanked this week, had him like 8th pitcher down. Now some of those pitchers have already been dealt and Hamels re-signed so maybe he's moved up a bit on the list but then again we have less buyers now too. Several trade rumors even talked about him coming out of the bullpen. I think this board is overvaluing Liriano something fierce. Yeah Liriano might put up an ERA around 3 and strike guys out but it's equally likely that he has an ERA around 7. What GM wants that kind of risk when even 1 loss could put you out of the playoffs? It's not like there aren't other pitchers out there who are as good as Liriano AND don't have his apparent downside right now. The true question is what are the asking prices. Nobody is going to pay the same for Liriano as they are for Dempster, Garza or Greinke.

I like the numbers Arcia is putting up but there is cause to think he'll come back to earth at some point. He fluctuates between a 20%-25% K rate so his BABIP is driving his batting average. His BABIP has been off the charts at times. At 3 of his stops it has been >.390. That isn't sustainable. However his SLG is certainly intriguing. I guess as far as prospects go I like him but he sure isn't ready for the big show yet.

1) And how does this hurt the Twins or help the Astros? The Twins are going to have money to spend on FA's; even more so if they go down the path of a firesale that so many here advocate. Should the Pohlad's just pocket that extra cash? Should an extra $30-60 million go towards the draft or signing international players? Money is going to get spent on FA's whether or not the Twins have a core group of players that are competitive. Shouldn't the Twins be trying to improve the immediate product on the field so that the fans have something more exciting to watch than an outfield of Bigley, Mastroianni and Revere? Shouldn't they be trying to sign good players who they might be able to flip at the deadline for even more prospects? You complain about signing old players who won't be a part of the future. Here is a list of 2013 FA's who are 28 or younger and will be in their prime a few years from now: BJ Upton Zach Greinke Melky Cabrera Delmon Young That's it. 4 guys. 3/4 of those guys are going to get BIG contracts and the 4th one is Delmon freaking Young. You just can't sign young guys who will be in their prime years from now to relatively small deals and the Twins can't afford another $100M contract on top of Mauer. No the Twins have the right idea in free agency. Get the value from the players you sign on short term deals up to 3 years. That way in 3 years when you're competitive you can decide where you need that money to be spent. At that point maybe you do go out and pick up a Zach Greinke equivalent who is in his prime where you're going to get good use out of all 4 or 5 years of it instead of 1 or 2. 2) This whole section means absolutely nothing. It means even less when applied to Twins baseball by a fan. Sure it's great as a sound bite but when you get right down to it it has no meaning.

Why would the Braves do that deal? Liriano and Delgado have been comparable pitchers so far this year. They were giving up Delgado for Dempster who has been pitching like an ace. Liriano, even with his 10 game string, has been below average.

A big question for Cigrani is what will his 3rd pitch be like. He was a reliever in college and has a good fastball and slider but he has to develop another pitch or two. He could be dominating the low majors on his FB/SL alone. Anyone hear anything?

Good God let's all hope they don't make a run at a top end starter. That would not only eat up whatever budget the Twins have available this year but for the next 5-6 years too. Anybody seriously contemplating signing a Greinke or Lincecum (assuming he can return to form and is available next year) should think about this; Mauer + Linceke would be ~50% of the Twins payroll.

Nobody is saying Parmelee long term in the RF. He would be out there for 1/2 a season, until a decision is made on Morneau, getting everyday at bats to see if he is a replacement for Morneau at 1st. After next trade deadline either Morneau is gone or he has turned things around enough that the Twins have decided to resign him to a contract. If Morneau is traded now you move Parmelee back to 1st. If Morneau is re-signed then you know Parmelee isn't in your future plans anyways. Either way that opens up RF for Benson or Hicks whoever is showing they're ready. Of course if neither of them are ready then there isn't a rush to move Parmelee. All of this of course is dependent on Span/Revere being traded before next season. As for Sano, his future position shouldn't be tied to anything other than what he can play. You want him to play the hardest position he is comfortable at because that increases his value both to the team and for future trade potential. So where Sano ends up should in no way be tied to any decision on Morneau or Parmelee.

How does that disagree in any way with what I wrote?

Do you really think that teams are reading Stark's writeup to find out what the Twins wish list is for our trade chips? More likely they'd just pick up the phone and asked TR what his asking price is then form an opinion of their own on how pricey that is. I don't see how this undermines the Twins in any way. Personally I think TR should be asking for a lot at this point. There are plenty of trade partners out there. As the trade market changes I hope he changes his asking price accordingly. Ultimately the Twins can keep Willingham, Span and Morneau with little issue. The only player that really is on the chopping block is Liriano and even there there is some wiggle room with a potential $12M QO this winter.

What does any of the last 2 pages of this thread have to do with the OP? Somehow a discussion about how much Baker should be offered turned into a pissing match about whether the Twins Organization throws players under the bus. While that may be worth discussing / looking into it deserves it's own thread; as Baker's contract does. The only relation I can see is in regards to Baker's desires to stay in MN and regardless what was said the only way to know that is to hear from Baker.

I see little reason to trade Morneau for the sake of a salary dump. He will be traded at the next deadline. Until then he is only blocking Parmelee and if an OF is traded there is a spot that opens up. Then Parmelee can move to 1st and you have a spot open to call up Benson/Hicks. Holding Morneau allows him to at least partially regain his value.

Just heard on ESPN that if the Marlins move Josh Johnson they will have reduced their payroll by ~40%. That would be like the Twins approaching a $60M salary again.

So does this mean that everyone is back off the resign Liriano bandwagon? And I would take that deal as well. It certainly isn't optimal with the center piece being a "toolsy" outfielder at AA but if you don't trade Liriano you are basically committing to the $12M QO.

How does sitting a young prospect on the bench for 1/2 the season and playing out of position another 1/3 as a utility player help the rebuilding? There are plenty of reasons to carry a veteran utility player not the least of which is risk management. The key is finding the right option. Like Jamey Carroll.

Agreed. They'll just have to find another veteran FA to replace him this offseason. I can't see the Twins rolling with an infield of Casilla, Dozier, Nishioka and/or Florimon. So who is available for next year that will be cheaper or better? It sure seems like at this point most of the available money this winter will go to pitching in one fashion or another. As Curt said if you can get something worthwhile it certainly doesn't hurt the Twins but I don't think you're really saving any significant money for next year either. There is always the possibility that his batting returns to norms and he is a decent player next year.

How do you prove that something didn't happen?

I don't understand this push for an incentive laden contract. For the sake of discussion let's assume he has a $3M base with an additional $5M possible with incentives for 2013. The Twins are going to go back and study other players coming off of TJ surgery then decide what Baker is likely to earn. Let's say they believe he'll make ~$6M. They are going to budget between $6M and the full $8M for him. As such there will be no salary relief derived from an incentive heavy deal. The only advantage I can see is to the Pohlads who stand to earn more money by paying less salary if Baker doesn't live up to his expectations.

At the top of each forum page there is a quick navigation link bar: Forum -> Questions about Twins Daily -> Suggestions Make this available at the bottom of the pages as well so that when a reader gets done with a thread they don't have to scroll back to the top to navigate. I know there is the "Quick Navigation" drop menu on the right hand side at the bottom but there is nothing particularly quick about it if all you're attempting to do is return to the forum you are currently browsing.

Do you even read my posts? Am I a fish on the line? Are you just trolling? Somebody save me here. Anybody have a needle nosed pliers?

Balfour, Kubel, Bartlett, Guerrier, Baker, Perkins, Slowey, Blackburn, Mijares, Plouffe, Revere

How did this thread get to 4 pages?

I looked at all of the Twins' callups over the last decade. Here is a snapshot: -Called up ~36 players since 2002 -23 out of 36 started the season at AAA -only 5 players spent minimal time at AAA (3 in the last 2 years) -only 3 players skipped AAA completely (all in the last 2 years) -14 had seen previous time in MLB -only Alexi Casilla started the season below AA -Mean age was 25.6 -Median age was 24 -Youngest was 21 (Casilla, Liriano) -Oldest was 30 (Chris Heintz)

Now you just seem to be making things up. The only statistic I mentioned in this discussion was in reference to Morneau and it was tangentially related to my main point. So there is no way I cherry picked anything. I am ready to be done with this discussion. I'll reiterate my points one last time in the vain hope that you understand. 1) There are many good free agent starting pitchers available this year. 2) Resigning Liriano to any contract longer than 1 year is a risk. The longer and more money involved the riskier it is. Liriano has been a below average pitcher. 3/30 is a risky contract for Liriano. Those have been the points of my posts. Nothing else.

You have misunderstood my posts or made assumptions about my opinions. Let me try to recap what was said and why I responded the way I did. You started by saying there weren't many FA SP's this year. To which I responded with a list of ~10 pitchers who are FA's and have been better pitchers than Liriano. You next claimed 3years/$30M contract for Liriano was low risk. I said that anytime you commit ~10% of your salary to one player that is not low risk. When that player is a below average player that becomes a high risk contract. You finally claimed that even if Liriano was bad the 3/30 contract would not be an albatross to which I said you must like the Blackburn deal then. You also said that the Liriano contract would be a safer bet than a Hamels or Greinke contract. Now let me try and clarify my position because I think you've made some bad assumptions. I don't favor a long term high $$ contract for Greinke or Hamels. I agree this would handcuff the Twins long term. I only included them in the list because you said there weren't good pitchers out there. I DO think signing 1-2 pitchers in the second tier for 3-4 years for $30-60M each, depending on the particulars, is the way to proceed. I don't think the Twins should resign Liriano because he hasn't been even an average pitcher unless he comes very cheap or it's a 1 year deal. You have to mitigate his risk. 3/30 for Liriano is high risk. I don't care if you use BBRef or Fangraphs for WAR. The only reason I brought up Morneau was to show that any long term contract is a risk.

You have mischaracterized this entire thread. Most people who are ok with trading Sano, me included, want a young well thought of front end starter that has years of team control left in return (ie someone like David Price). Personally I think that would take a package of prospects not just Sano and I might be OK with that depending on who was involved.