Oxtung

I agree that winning has the largest effect on attendance however, star players certainly do help drive attendance up whether a team is at the bottom or the top of the rollercoaster ride that is sports.

Here is what we have said so far: Trade Span. Trade Morneau. Trade Willingham. Trade Revere. Trade Doumit Trade Parmelee Trade Hicks Trade them all. Dump them immediately. Trade them one at a time over the next year. Demand top prospects. Just get rid of the contracts with no return. Start the OF prospects next season. Leave the OF prospects in the minors for more seasoning. Play Parmelee in the OF. Play Parmelee at 1B. Platoon Parmelee. Who cares about Parmelee for next season. I think one thing is certain. No matter what the FO does this winter it will be wrong to a significant portion of the fanbase and we'll be hearing about this for the next 10 years.

No he didn't. I wish people would quite changing what TR said just to suit their own agenda. Gleeman incorrectly repeated this as well during his podcast. What TR said was that the "elite FA pitching market was 'thin'". Unless I missed a clarification somewhere he has said nothing about the pitching market as a whole. Now maybe TR doesn't go out and get any of the better pitchers this winter and maybe you think it is unlikely to happen. That's fine, rip him then, but don't put words in his mouth because he hasn't said anything about the pitching market as a whole.

Yep. I'd deal one this offseason, try to move another at the 2013 deadline, and then consider moving the third next offseason. Trading all three at once isn't going to get much of a return. Morneau's value is hamstrung by his 2013 contract (which is why I'd deal him next deadline) and losing both Span and Willingham would be devastating to the offense. I'd try to move Span this offseason and consider moving Willingham the next (the less contract time left on his deal, the more willing teams will be to take on an aging slugger, the exact opposite of Span's situation). I think you've found the Twins trade plan special sauce. This plan gets all the players moved without just blowing things up all at once, allows the team to pick the outfielder most ready at any given time and if that outfielder struggles and it's determined wasn't actually ready you have another prospect you can call up to replace the original so you aren't stuck with Dozier-esque production just because there is nobody else.

Hendriks was a top 10 prospect in the Twins organization according to MLB.com, BA and Fangraphs. He has pitched very well in the minors. You're probably right that the Twins value Hendriks higher than others, he is a control pitcher after all, but Hendriks is still well thought of outside the org. Mark Hulet from Fangraphs for instance thinks he will end up a 3 or 4 starter. If you have information that disagrees with these sources I think many of us would be interested in reading them. While interesting to know what those outside the organization think of a player what really matters is what those inside the organization think. The Twins love control pitchers. That tells me Hendriks, assuming he can get over his MLB-phobia, has a better chance of sticking in the rotation then any of the pitchers you mentioned.

It also says that Ryan declared the free agent market as "thin." And there's another thread on this forum dissecting what Ryan is quoted as saying versus what Souhan might be stirring up. I'm saying I wish the quote would be "we're going to be players in every market" rather than "you're going to have to look at all the markets, not just free agency, but trades and waivers and Rule 5s." Of course you have to look at waivers and Rule 5s. But this team just leans way too heavy to trying to find a diamond in the rough as way to fill obvious holes in the rotation for my tastes. Pretend you're going to be in the market to buy an arm. If we had 4 guys penciled in the rotation to rely on for next year, I'd have no problem with the phrasing in the article. But we don't. We have one guy (Diamond) who has nearly a full season of solid history to give us full, unwavering confidence in him. Then, we have Hendriks who has a fantastic AAA resume and one complete game with the big leaguers. Then, we have Gibson and his TJ recovery and his almost certain limited innings. Then we have Deduno and his crazy fastball. Then we have DeVries, or whomever else you want to say is next. I'd love it if all of the guys became the pitchers we want them to be. But it is foolish to go into season after season hoping that this year will be the year everything comes together. I'd like more past performance - i.e., an established repeatedly good pitcher - on the squad. In fact, I'd like two so we can hope with the bottom 3 guys in the rotation, instead of the top 3. And the Twins have some money available, unless they decide that Carl Pavano and his 86 mph fastball is an established repeatedly good pitcher. If that's their evaluation, I'd rather have a turd sandwich with mustard. I agree with most of what you're saying. I just am trying to keep you honest in what Ryan did and did not say. You're bashing him, and you do it in this post again, for something he didn't say. He didn't call the entire FA market "thin". He only said that the "elite FA pitcher" market was thin. But anybody can see that. The only elite pitcher out there now is Greinke. Maybe the Twins sign some good FA's and maybe they don't but don't hang Ryan out to dry for something he didn't in fact say.

I'll assume the Gray, Blackburn and Nishi jerseys were dispatched to a bottomless pit somewhere. I heard it was the bottom of the Shackleton Crater on the Moon. It is a place in permanent darkness so no person could ever see them from orbit. Any person wanting to retrieve one of these treasures would face the vacuum of space as well as temperatures of -300 Fahrenheit. On top of that the radiation environment is so severe it is highly doubtful any human could survive long enough to retrieve those abominations! I've been to the Shackleton Crater. Took the family on a nice road trip. Monday we drove to Kansas City... Love Arthur Bryants Barbeque. Tuesday thru the Ozarks to Fayettlevile... The Hillbilles are authentic in NW Arkansas. Wednesday up to Yellowknife NWT... Was disappointed to find cutlery the regular color. Thursday we drove to Buffalo... The family wanted authentic wings for supper. Friday was the Shackleton Crater... Ron Davis Jerseys was what they had. We didnt buy any jerseys but we did pick up one of those space vacuums with HEPA filtration and an ergonomic handle. It was a little chilly but we brought jackets... Got back to North Dakota on Saturday and it was colder. I sure hope you did some study on the water-ice that is thought to be there! I'm looking forward to your research papers!! hahaha...good one!

Where/when did he say that? Souhan article on 8/29: http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/167784175.html "Ryan was blunt about a variety of subjects. He... * Would consider re-signing pending free-agent pitchers Scott Baker and Carl Pavano. * Doubts he will pursue any elite free-agent pitchers this winter, saying it will be a "thin" market and that he's averse to signing such pitchers to the long-term deals required to land them." and later, "You have to be open to a lot of things when you're looking for starting pitching," he said. "You're going to have to take some risks and you're going to have to look at all the markets, not just free agency, but trades and waivers and Rule 5s. But if you want to do it the correct way, that's going to provide stability over the long haul, you're going to have to draft and develop guys, too. Even when we had rotations that were darn good, we got them from about every avenue. We have to do the same thing moving forward here." ********* My problem with this is that he says you have to look at every avenue, yet he dismisses one of the avenues (free agency) with a hand wave. If we don't sign an upper tier free agent pitcher, we might as well chalk up next year as another sub .500 season, and perhaps another 90+ loss season, unless we get an upper tier pitcher through another source. Given it is unlikely to pick up an upper tier pitcher via the waiver wire or Rule 5, he's pretty much saying the only way we're getting an upper tier pitcher is via trade. In cutting deals, when you let your trading partners know you don't have any other option, that's called "tipping your hand". Can't we at least PRETEND we might throw a few bucks at a quality pitcher? No where in that article did Ryan say he wouldn't spend in free agency. All it says is that he won't go after "Elite pitchers". Since there is only really 1 elite pitcher on the market this year he really isn't saying much. On top of that he continues on to say that FA actually SHOULD be looked at to shore up the pitching. So again, where and when did he say he won't spend because it sure isn't that article.

Where/when did he say that?

Just to clarify a bit he actually said that the "elite free agent pitcher market was thin". He said nothing about the overall pitching market. If you take "elite" to mean Hamels/Greinke etc... then yes it is thin. Another reason for Tampa's attendance struggles could be the housing market. Tampa got absolutely rocked. I have a buddy there who said his house has lost 50% of it's value since he bought it in 2007.

I read the interview in the Star-Tribune too, and to be fair to him that's not what he said. He is all too aware the pitching staff needs improvement, and he specifically said that trades, FA, and internal development will all have to be part of the picture. He is not ruling out resigning Pavano and Baker, but he is not ruling out much else either, with the exception of going after an "elite FA" because of contract concerns, and personally I agree with him on that. Except that is exactly what he said: Souhan: "Do you feel a responsibility to get this organization back on its feet?" Ryan: "Absolutely. Totally. This is a team I believe in, and I'm at the helm. Our injuries have been less than those of most teams. The payroll is more than adequate. We've just got to get it right. I take responsibility for all of it. Even when it comes to injuries to the pitching staff during the season, you've got to be able to fix some of those things on the fly........"You have to be open to a lot of things when you're looking for starting pitching," he said. "You've going to have to take some risks and you're going to have to look at all markets, not just free agency, but trades and waivers and Rule 5s. But if you want to do it the correct way, that's going to provide stability over the long haul, you're going to have to draft and develop guys, too." "trades" Nope "waiver" Nope " draft and develop guys" Nope "Rule 5s" Yup, one.....Is this how you reach the Pitching Promised Land? Really??? "Free Agency" Nope... given Marquis, et al, do we really want to go there? "You've got to be able to fix things on the fly" Definitely Nope, Ryan's demonstrated a concerted Fear of Flying this season, coupled with the fact that there has been no Plan B since the team began the transition to the new ballpark, and they totally screwed up Plan A from square one by not building a team geared for success in Target Field (taking a ground ball- line drive- lefty bat warning track power-hitting team coupled with a team full of retread/hasbeen/never were SPs was a recipe for long-term failure) SBKnudson has it pretty much spot on. Ryan says, "you're going to have to look at all markets, not just free agency, but trades and waivers and Rule 5s. ... you're going to have to draft and develop guys, too." Not sure where the confusion is coming from. He clearly states that other than "elite free agent pitchers" everything is on the table.

I'll assume the Gray, Blackburn and Nishi jerseys were dispatched to a bottomless pit somewhere. I heard it was the bottom of the Shackleton Crater on the Moon. It is a place in permanent darkness so no person could ever see them from orbit. Any person wanting to retrieve one of these treasures would face the vacuum of space as well as temperatures of -300 Fahrenheit. On top of that the radiation environment is so severe it is highly doubtful any human could survive long enough to retrieve those abominations!

Except that people continuously show they don't understand risk management. There are studies that show many humans can't differentiate between risks. They don't know if scenario A presents more risk then scenario B. The housing collapse in large part was because people didn't understand the risks of Variable Rate Mortgages. Climate Change is not being confronted because many people can't accurately assess the risk. Texting while you drive. Driving Drunk. If you want to get more focused on baseball and the Twins specifically just about every time somebody says: "Count on [insert minor league player] to start next year" and especially when it's Gibson or Baker there seems to be an inability to properly assess the risk involved. Long rebuttal longer; I disagree with your assumption that people understand risk management. That's why there are entire firms that do nothing but analyze risk.

I don't really agree with all of that either, at least in the way I think you're trying to demonstrate. To me, it's an injustice to Mauer himself and the fans that he's not being surrounded by other needed talent that could put them over the top to contend. You seem to be arguing there is an inherent responsibility for an employer to provide perks or bonuses to employees beyond what is stated in the employee/er contract. I would agree with that with regards to discrimination and safety, etc., but I don't think there is any obligation to provide help to an employee to do their job. In many situations that might be beneficial to do so but certainly it shouldn't be an obligation. If it is not an inherent responsibility then it can't be an injustice. So again, maybe we're just arguing semantics here about the word "injustice". On the flip side there is an obligation to the taxpayers of the state of Minnesota because of the publicly financed stadium.

I agree with what I assume was your main point; Kepler will not be ranked in the top 100 prospects lists. However, he is 19 this year in E-Town the same age as Arcia/Rosario and a year older than Sano was. So he isn't exactly young any more (compared to his competition at least). You're right he isn't putting up Arcia/Rosario/Sano numbers but he isn't that far off at this point either. His OPS is .019 less than Sano's was. He is definitely having a very good year and should move up the Twins prospect lists I would think.

This is just my gut feeling but I don't think the Pohlad's really care. They seem to be in this for the business reasons more than the fanatical fan reasons. As long as the Twins are making them money everything else is a secondary concern. Now that's not to say that they don't want to win. I just think it's obvious they value the fiscal earning power of the Twins over the social or emotional bonuses of putting a championship caliber squad on the field. I don't think we should fault them for this either. The Twins certainly aren't a charity the Pohlad's should be expected to donate money to so they can win a championship. Even having an owner whose driven by fandom and that wants to do whatever he can to win isn't necessarily a good thing. Do you end up with Mark Cuban or Daniel Snyder? Sorry, while my original point was related to your post I seem to have wandered off somewhere in the middle. I am not trying to imply that you have made any claims about the Twins ownership.

Yeah, hard to get upset for a guy who entered into a legal contract knowingly and is getting paid $23M/year. The true injustice is to the fans who have funded the stadium and pay to go see the games.

Yeah the idea behind risk management, at least in this instance, is not that you have a one to one back up for any given player but rather that you have some minimal level of competency waiting in case your risky move fails. Take an example from the Twins this year. They had no idea what they were going to get from Joe Mauer. Could he catch? DH? 1B? Miss half the year from injury? Mauer could do anything from win the MVP and play everyday at catcher to miss the entire season with bi-lateral leg weakness again. That's a lot of risk. To mitigate that risk the Twins went out and got Doumit. A player that could play catcher with atleast a minimal level of competency. Is Doumit an ideal every day catcher? No. Could Doumit catch 5 days a week if he had to? Yes. That is a good risk management move. It was an even better move because he not only provides risk management at catcher but also at a corner OF spot and DH. As for the Twins starting rotation that turkey shoot can't be blamed on Ryan's risk management strategy. Nobody plans to lose all 5 opening day starters. There is just nothing you can do about that.

And part time DH and part time 1B. Those would seem to average out to be perhaps only slightly above a 3B in the "value added by position" category.

Making predictions about the Twins adding starting pitching via free agency by looking at the past is a flawed argument. The Twins have never been in their current situation. There are no parallels to draw from. Like Nick said assuming the payroll doesn't drop; terrible rotation, considerable money to spend, no long term commitments to SP, and little short or mid term help coming from the minors. This is truly new territory. Anyone making claims about what the Twins will or won't do have no leg to stand on. The Twins sure better be making plans for next year (and still this year too) how to replace each and every player. That is a basic component of risk management. Hope for the best but plan for the worst. So should the Twins expect all of the "unexpected" players to regress? No. Should they have a plan in place to replace any player that regress like Casilla or is injured like Baker? Yes. That is basic business sense.

I don't think anybody sees Parmelee as a long term solution at OF. It is more a solution to many short term problems the Twins have currently. 1) Pitching- In order to acquire more pitching the Twins need to trade somebody. OF is a position of depth currently in the organization making players here logical trade bait. 2) IF Span/Willingham get traded this offseason there will be a spot open in the OF until Hicks/Arcia/Benson are ready to fill it. The Twins aren't going to count on Hicks/Arcia/Benson being ready to fill that hole to start 2013. They might get looks in spring training but the Twins will need to have a plan in place incase none are ready to handle that position. 3) Parmelee will be 25 before next season and has absolutely destroyed AAA. He seemingly has nothing left to learn at AAA AND he is a potential impact bat for the lineup. His natural position of 1B likely won't be open until the trade deadline 2013 (or Morneau gets re-signed in which case Parmelee is trade bait) so he needs to find another spot to make this team. You put those 3 together and Parmelee in RF for half a year makes sense.

I've been trying to figure out a good way of saying this but I haven't been able to order my thoughts well and now I have run out of time. Please don't get caught up in the little details of my post but instead look at what my main point is; I feel like my whole point is on the tip of my brain but I just can't get it out for what it's worth. For anyone who feels they understand my point and can better elucidate it, please do. Liriano's performance tomorrow might be one for the ages. He might throw a no-no. He might pitch 1 inning and allow 7 ER. He could go undefeated in his starts from now until September or be pulled from the rotation entirely. While any outcome will clearly have an effect on the final standings and Chicago's chances at winning the pennant, none of his starts should be used as justification on whether Terry Ryan made a good trade. What matters when judging a decision is not what happens afterwards but rather the knowledge one had beforehand and the thought process that led to the decision. Holding Terry Ryan responsible, whether it is good or bad, for Liriano's performance is nothing but hindsight and laziness. Terry Ryan cannot be held responsible for Liriano's future outings because they are just that; the future. What matters is only the knowledge Terry Ryan had at the time the decision was made.

I was not trying to drag your thread OT and have deleted my original post to prevent further OT conversation.

My apologies then. Thought I had gotten into it with you on another thread last week.

I don't blame you Leviathan. Like I said there are psychological studies that show humans overvalue things we know and undervalue those things that we are unfamiliar with. It is literally hardwired into the human brain.