Oxtung

In addition you have to be able to justify why 2013 so important. That money is coming off the books anyways in 2014. So you have to be able to show that there is something that occurs in 2013 that won't be available in 2014. Then that something has be worth more than 2014's equivalent plus Morneau's production plus the potential prospects we could get back which at this point could be something significant.

Here is your original statement about Greinke: So yes in fact you did directly compare Greinke to Liriano. You can back pedal from that if you'd like but it did happen. You, and several other posters, seem to be making the mistake of think 2010 Liriano is the "real" Liriano and he should return value equivalent to that year. You completely are dismissing that 2009, 2011 and now in 2012 he has been a bad pitcher. When you look at the other pitchers that have been traded they have been average to good 2009-2012. When you are a better pitcher of course you're going to return more of value.

The Brewers didn't get the package they did because they were hoping to resign Greinke. The Brewers got their "Haul" because once Hamels re-signed Greinke was perceived as THE BEST PITCHER AVAILABLE. Liriano isn't even in the same discussion and that was proven out by what the Twins got in return.

With who?

You just showed why Liriano was so overvalued here. An inability to remember the whole past. Liriano had half of a dominant season, TJ surgery, bad year, good but not great year, followed by a further 2 bad years. Several posters valued Liriano as a tier 2 FA right behind Hamels and Greinke.

Several of us didn't and tried in vain to inject some rationality into the discussion but it is a common human trait that allows emotional attachment to override logical reasoning.

This doesn't make any sense. The Twins talking about resigning Liriano doesn't drive demand. What drives demand is a product that is valued by several buyers. If other teams don't think Liriano is valuable no amount of posturing by the Twins is going to change that. Liriano's inconsistencies, better pitchers available and buyers only getting ~12 starts is what drove the asking price.

And it's not just the Pujols contract, although that is certainly the worst of the bunch. They already have $70-90 million per year committed through 2016 for 6 players. At this point most of those players are playing well but four and a half more years is a LONG time. I guess the one saving grace is most of those contracts will just be coming off the books when Trumbo and Trout are becoming FA eligible.

Even during his good streak teams were still thinking of him as a reliever suggesting that his value was never very high.

I think the team will have a veteran MINF next year. Whether that is a starter or a utility player isn't clear at this point but I sure hope that isn't Jamey Carroll. I think he's better than he's been given credit for this year and I think he'll be better next year than he is this year, at least in regards to batting average. However, Carroll has a $2M 2014 player option with no team buyout that kicks in if he gets 401 PA's in 2013. Since I think he's pretty much guaranteed to earn that next year, he's already at 300+ this year, and I want no part of a 40 year old Jamey Carroll for $2M, I think he needs to get traded and traded now! I don't even care if we get anything back for him.

I guess I just got confused because you did just that ... or or One time wasn't enough? You thought you'd double down and tell me what I'm thinking a second time? I find that ironic since I showed in general terms how spending in FA could potentially help you in the short, mid and long terms. Alright, I'm done with this discussion. I find it insulting that you are telling me what I think about things. I'll just leave it at this; burning the Twins to the ground and then not spending in FA is a poor strategy. It might help the Pohlad's pocketbook but it sure doesn't help the Twins and even more it insults all the Twins fans who spend $50 for a ticket, beer and hot dog.

How do you measure future impact on your fans and therefore your franchise with "stupid statistics"? Statistics are a measurement of what HAS happened not what will happen. If you have a particular quibble with my post then bring it up. Making snarky comments with no substance doesn't help move the discussion forward.

Please enlighten me on what I am thinking and talking about. You clearly have no idea what I have been saying here or in other threads. Your post on the other hand seems to either be poorly articulated or not well thought out. So winning helps put butts in the seats but winning 74 games doesn't matter we should instead cut payroll and win 60? The focus should be on acquiring assets but we should still cut payroll and not spend in FA? Why can't you do both? Why can't you trade Morneau, Span, Willingham, Carroll and other veterans that are worth something over the next year and replace them with a combination of minor leaguers as they are ready AND sign FA's that complement those pieces in the midterm and will help keep this team from absolutely cratering in the short term? If those veterans then become expendable, either because like Willingham they play exceptionally well and have great value, or because we have a prospect develop to replace them maybe a couple get flipped for more prospects which then helps us in the long term.

It isn't about spending money just to spend the money. It's about helping this team in the short term through free agency, hopefully helping this team in the mid-term if you find the right deals or potentially helping this team in the long term through flipping those FA's for prospects. Along the way you improve the product to the point where you don't lose 100 games which is a very real possibility if the Twins firesale, reduce payroll and don't sign any decent free agents.

Lots of things in this post that I would like to comment on but this thread isn't really the place for it. If you, or anyone else, would be interested in having a discussion about outfield defense or how ballparks shape affects defensive play I would be interested in going down that path and seeing where we end up. I have some ideas but certainly have never given it any real in depth thought. Until someone starts that thread I'll leave my thoughts at this: 1) Of course a defender has to cover all of his assigned outfield so outfield size does matter. You can't necessarily get to everything in the air but you still have to get there. 2) GAB and TF are roughly the same dimensions in CF so the outfield play should be equally important. 3) In baseball terms speed and distance covered are really two sides of the same coin.

I don't know how close the Mariners are to shipping Felix but even if they are at that point the Twins shouldn't be anywhere near the conversation. His huge salary would eat up all of the money they need to fix this rotation. Then it would eat up all the money to sign FA's in 2014 as well. Then he would be gone and the Twins would have no King Felix and no Tier 2 pitching talent. On top of that Twins would have to give up some of their top prospects to get him. So in short. No. The Twins shouldn't be anywhere near the Tier 1 pitchers because they just cost too much at this point.

Sounds like the "Twins way" kind of pitcher! Just think of how good our staff is at diagnosing and rehabbing all those arms!

GABP might let more balls out and Span's OPS might climb by as you say. None of that will affect his defensive value though. When you get down to it what matters is how big is the area you need to cover. The bigger the area the better your defender better be. Now, there might be some difference when it comes to wind patterns and balls getting moved by air currents in stadiums, but again that really isn't an effect of the size of the stadium. Even if balls are getting blown around CF seems like it would come out close to equal in the "balls blown out of your defensive area" and "balls blown into your defensive area" game.

Sorry, I should have used a different word. In this case "peripherals" meant the non-statistics side of things; the potential to fall apart, the potential ticket sales impact and then justifying it to your fans etc...

John what would you do with the money? The Twins are already going to have ~$20-30 million to spend depending on who gets traded. I think we're all in agreement that most of that goes to pitching with maybe a little something to a MINF. Even at $20 million that would be enough to go get a second tier starter for ~$14M/yr and a $6M veteran for a few years. So what does that extra $14M actually get you?

I guess we'll just have to disagree about what the definition of "massive" is. To me "massive" would be Willingham's .957 OPS and 157 OPS+. I understand and agree that Span would be an upgrade and obviously his OBP and OPS would be upgrades. My only point is that .07 OPS isn't "massive" and blowing things out of proportion to make a point doesn't help further a discussion. Great American Ball Park isn't any smaller than TF in CF. It's proportions are just different. It's slightly shallower at straight away center but it is slightly deeper in left center and right center. Spans defense should play about the same. On a purely hypothetical note a playing in a smaller stadium would actually reduce a players defensive impact. The larger the area to cover the better the defense is required and the more you can show off just how good you are.

Sure every pitcher is capable of being smacked around for a game or two. The problem with Liriano is threefold. First, he is capable of going into a funk where it isn't 1 or 2 games but rather 5 or 6 games where he pitches at a 7+ ERA. Just a few months ago he had 6 straight starts where he gave up 5ER or more! And it wasn't a fluke, he's had bad stretches in 3 of the last 4 years. Second, Liriano has only pitched well in 1 month this year. Yeah that was a great month but even July he put up a 5.34 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP. Not exactly setting the world on fire right now. Even if you assume that his last start was a BLIP he still only has a 3.46 ERA and a 1.230 WHIP. While those numbers are decent they aren't elite by any means. Third is a problem of perception. If you go out and get a guy like Greinke, Josh Johnson, Ryan Dempster or Garza your fans will be excited (obviously there is a difference between Greinke and the others here but there is a difference between Liriano and the rest as well). They will come to the game, spend money buying your overpriced hotdogs and beer and be excited to watch that new addition to the squad. That pitcher that is going to put them over the top. Now if one of those guys struggles down the stretch and you don't make the playoffs or bowout early your GM can still point to the fact that they went out and gave it their best shot. They went out and got one of the best and biggest names available. The talk show hosts and newspaper columnists can bitch but in the end they have to agree that each of those pitchers had the stats at the deadline to look like a good signing. On the other hand if Liriano comes out and goes 1-4 with a 5.80 ERA you have nothing to fall back on with your fans. He isn't one of the best pitchers and hasn't been for a few years. As a GM you're going to get destroyed by the local media. So while Liriano's "stuff" might be up there with those top names bandied about all of the "peripherals" scream NOOOOOO!!!!!

great run? Melky is having a great year but the Giants are 23rd in the league in slugging and 21st in runs scored. Blanco .248/.341/.369 isn't helping out in RF. You don't think they would like a Willingham: .271,.384/.563? Melky Cabrera is a FA after this year and is going to cash in so long term Willingham has a spot too. This deal might not make sense but it isn't because of SF outfield. That said I think the Twins would be fools to take this trade.

You keep saying that but it is anything but clear. As far as I can remember the Twins have never been in the position they're in right now. They have a historically bad starting rotation. Only Blackburn has a contract committment for next season. They have $20-30 million to put back into the club. They have little guaranteed starting pitching help available in the Minors for the next several years. Yes, maybe Gibson and Wimmers can come back but neither at this point (or even in the offseason) are going to be a sure thing to build around. That leaves you with Diamond, who I think we can all agree is going to keep seeing his ERA move in the direction of 4, and Blackburn, as much as nobody wants to admit it he'll get a shot again next year. The Twins are going to have to go out and get pitching help. And before you say it, veteran free agents on a 1 year deal doesn't help because the starting pitching is a problem long term. They're going to have to sign multiple pitchers and atleast 1 of those is going to have to be 3+ years.

Hyperbole much? While a difference it is nowhere near "massive".