Oxtung

Presumably the pitching has been the bargain (oh god I hope that's what you're saying here) so what talent do you think the Twins will bring in with the other $15-20 million dollars they haven't spent? At this point it looks more like the Twins are just fleecing the fanbase.

Didn't know that Hick's pitched in high school. Thanks for that info

There are a few things wrong with your analogy. First there were many good FA pitchers out there this year that the Twins could have pursued; not just one. Second there are many journalists out there trying to get the inside scoop on each of those pitchers; not just one doctor. So a more accurate analogy would be the patient took 7 or 8 different types of tests and he went to a dozen different doctors who each wanted to run their own tests. Every single one of those tests came back as negative. So sure, I guess everyone of those tests could have been incorrect but a higher likely hood would be that you truly are cancer free. To bring this back to the point at hand; if there were only one or two available pitchers out there or if none of the media really tried to ferret out the truth or if the Twins were known as an orginization that was well versed in keeping their dealings secret maybe you would have a point. But the there were many pitchers out there, there are a dozen writers trying to break the news, especially when it comes to the big names, and the Span and Revere trades as well as both the Pelfrey and Correia signings were all swirling in the rumor mill. At some point the lack of evidence, while never definitive, becomes so overwhelming as to imply that in fact no big name pitcher was ever being truly considered by the Twins. If this post doesn't make sense I apologize in advance. It is currently 4am as I am finishing this up and am thinking to myself, WTF am I still doing up! Stupid TD message boards.

Prospects361.com blurb about Buxton mentioned that he pitched in HS and that his fastball routinely hit 95mph. How does that mesh with your understanding of Hick's arm? Do you think that is incorrect? Do you think Hicks, if he was ever clocked, would top that? Is there some other reason you think Hick's arm is better than just sheer velocity?

I'm not sure if you're replying to me but if you are all of my statistics on Dickey only encompass 2010-2012, the three years he has been starting. The only lifetime statistics I posted were in regards to other knuckleball pitchers to see how their ERA compared with FIP to help determine if FIP applied to knuckleball pitchers.

No, FIP is a terrible way to judge him because it makes the case that his low BABIP is "luck" rather then "Skill". The majority of balls put in play against Dickey are "bad batted balls" as in the hitter is not making even close to good contact. Again you can point out FIP all you want, the fact is Dickey's ERA is over a full run lower then Dempster over the last 3 years, and it's not due to luck. You pointing out there WAR shows how WAR is a flawed stat. 2009 has no bearing on this discussion in regards to Dickey and it shouldn't even be brought up, he was clearly a totally different pitcher as he wasn't even starting back then. (other then a single game) Look you're basically making the arguement that you believe your eyes over statistics. That is just fine. As I've now said several times I'm ok with you having that opinion. I will lean towards the more empirical analysis for myself. I think we've taken this discussion about as far as we can and so probably won't be responding further. Hope you're having a great Saturday!

I believe if you took knuckleball pitchers as a group, and non-knuckleball pitchers as a group, you would find that knuckleballers in general pitch more effectively after the age of 40 than non-knuckleballers. If you asked 30 GMs who they think would be pitching effectively at age 41, how many would say Dempster would and Dickey wouldn't? Zero. How many would say Dickey would still be effective at 41? Probably all. This is not anecdotes, this is just the way it is. This portion of your argument has no legs whatsoever. 2 things: First, you start your paragraph off with the words "I think". That is an opinion and no matter how widely believed it is just that, an opinion. Until there is some kind of statistical evidence backing up your assertion my opinion is just as valid. Second, my position on age has always been that Dempster is already 2 years younger than Dickey. So even if we assume your aging assertion is true, which until I see some empirical evidence I don't, they aren't starting from the same place.

I look at Dickey and see a guy who's ERA is out of whack with his peripherals. His 9 k/9 in 2012 was the only time in the last 10 years he has been over 6 k/9 and I think that is a fluke. I see a guy who is going to be 38 and I think he is likely to succumb to age just like everyone else (including many other knuckleballers). I also see other pitchers out there who are very good pitchers and would be HUGE upgrades to the Twins rotation that would cost about the same money without giving away any prospects. So to sum it up: Huge Risk Costs Prospects Other options Certainly you are more the welcome to your own opinion. Dude, he is a knuckleball Pitcher.XFIP/FIP and several others don't apply to him as much as the other 99.5% of pitchers who aren't knuckleballers. Most of the time when hitter did put bat on ball it was with very weak contact. Hell even with that said his xFIP and FIP were 3.27 last year, add in his 2.73 ERA and k/bb rate and that is top of the rotation stuff all the way. Granted his strand rate was 5% higher then normal, but at the same time his HR% was high as well, what does this say about 2012? It wasn't a fluke for Dickey. Also his two years prior were pretty damn good as well! As far as knuckleballers not aging well, I'm not sure what you mean. Wakefield pitched effectively into his 41 year season, and wasn't even that god awful in his 42 age year. Phil Niekro had a 3.09 ERA when he was 45! His brother Joe had a sub 4.00 ERA his 40th year and pitched to 43. Also as I mentioned in the other thread: Lannan has a better Career ERA then Dempster, and a better past 3 full seasons ERA then Dempster. This isn't to say Dempster has no value or Lannan is better, it just illustrates that Dempster at 3 years and no prospects is not better then Dickey at 3 years and some prospects. Give me Dickey any day of the week over Dempster, especially if it only costs 26 mil over 2 years and only 1 of our top 8 prospects (+ some other pieces) Knuckleballers vs. FIP FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant Why exactly do these not apply to him? Does his knuckleball change how many HR's, BB's or k's he has? If it was true that knuckleballers were exempt from this stat it would show up in other knuckleballers stats. Here are career ERA and FIP numbers of a few knuckleballers as well as Dickey's 3 year average: [TABLE=class: grid, width: 250] Player ERA FIP P.Niekro 3.35 3.62 Wakefield 4.41 4.72 J.Niekro 3.59 3.79 Dickey 2.94 3.68 [/TABLE] From these numbers I think it's safe to say FIP works for knuckleballers. If FIP works then so does WAR since WAR is based on FIP. Fluke Any time a pitcher's K/9 rate increases from 6 to 9 for one season that is the definition of flukey (which was what I said...not that his season as a whole was flukey). Aging Wakefield and the Niekro brothers aged well, good for them. Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens aged well too. These anectdotes mean little with regards to how other pitchers will perform as they age. Lannan vs. Dempster vs. Dickey [TABLE=class: grid, width: 300] Player ERA FIP WAR [/TD] Lannan 3.90 4.48 3.9 Dempster 4.04 4.00 9.6 Dickey 2.95 3.70 9.9[TD] [/TABLE] Looks like Dempster and Dickey are pretty comparable with Lannan a distant 3rd in everything except ERA. These numbers include Lannan's pretty decent 2009 but excludes Dempsters good and Dickey's terrible 2009. If you include Dempster and Dickey's 2009 the numbers start to skew Dempsters direction. Dempster vs. Dickey As I said before, you are certainly capable of having your own opinion. However, nothing you have presented has changed anything in my mind. Advanced metrics show Dickey and Dempster are similar quality pitchers over the last few years. Seemingly the only major difference is in their ERA's which is not a good predictor of future success. They are asking for similar length contracts with similar dollar amounts but Dickey would require some good prospects as well. The Twins are in semi-rebuild mode, at a minimum, so trading prospects doesn't make much sense to me.

I look at Dickey and see a guy who's ERA is out of whack with his peripherals. His 9 k/9 in 2012 was the only time in the last 10 years he has been over 6 k/9 and I think that is a fluke. I see a guy who is going to be 38 and I think he is likely to succumb to age just like everyone else (including many other knuckleballers). I also see other pitchers out there who are very good pitchers and would be HUGE upgrades to the Twins rotation that would cost about the same money without giving away any prospects. So to sum it up: Huge Risk Costs Prospects Other options Certainly you are more the welcome to your own opinion.

That wasn't his point at all actually... To your point: The same Dempster who got absolutely lit up in Texas? He is the same quality as the guy who just won the NL Cy Young? Lets take a look at the numbers, shall we? Dickey last 3 seasons: 2.84 ERA, 3.28 ERA, 2.73 ERA Dempster: 3.85, 4.80, 3.38 (5.09 in AL) This isn't even bringing into the fact that Dickey will most certainly age better as a Knuckleballer, and was able to do things with the pitch that no player has done before. I was at one of his one hitters last season, and it was one of the most dominant pitching performances I have ever seen. You can make the argument to sign Dempster because he won't cost prospects, but to say are "Similar" quality is an exaggeration. Once again, Dickey is coming off a Cy Young Win. Dempster is looking like a #3 or #4 in the AL at best. Here are some other stats to compare: Last 3 Seasons: [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500] Season/Player FIP xFIP WAR 2010/Dickey 3.65 3.75 2.8 2010/Dempster 3.99 3.74 3.2 2011/Dickey 3.77 3.95 2.5 2011/Dempster 3.91 3.70 2.7 2012/Dickey 3.27 3.27 4.6 2012/Dempster 3.69 3.77 3.3 Dickey Average/Total 3.56 3.66 9.9 Dempster Average/Total 3.86 3.74 9.2 [/TABLE] Seems pretty comparable to me. Dickey is a few years older than Dempster so even if knuckleballers age better they aren't starting from the same place. Personally I think they both will be putting up 5+ ERA's in 3 years. To my larger point however, in comparison to the Twins starting rotation last year they are very similar pitchers. Both of them are DRASTICALLY better than what we had. Considering that we as fans mostly agree 2013 isn't going to be a contending year and that we should be looking to stockpile young talent: Why would you give up good prospects for Dickey when you could just sign Dempster?

The player option kicks in if he accrues >400 PA in 2013. That makes it somewhat a team option - if he sucks, he'll be on the bench anyway, if he's marginal then his playing time goes down in Aug-Sept if he can't be traded at deadline. Don't know how much, if any, this changes the thinking. Brian Dozier Pedro Florimon Trevor Plouffe Barring injury I just don't see how he doesn't get >400 PA's.

Not entirely true. I certainly don't think Carroll's salary will break the bank and I agree there is no reason to be actively looking to cut salary; quite the contrary I think they should be actively looking to spend all of their money. However, Carroll does have a player option for 2014 where he will be 40 years old. If the Twins FO has decided to essentially build for 2014+ then IMO looking to move Jamey Carroll is a good option.

Worley injured himself May 11 of 2012 and pitched another 16 games and 90+ innings before being shut down for surgery in late August. So I guess it isn't just the Twins medical staff that is "incompetent." http://articles.philly.com/2012-05-24/sports/31826963_1_vance-worley-tommy-john-surgery-ulnar-collateral-ligament

Sigh, yet another enlightened comment. Please tell me which of the pitchers off the board the Twins should have signed thus far? Last I checked Grienke, Sanchez, Jackson, Marcum, Dempster etc are still on the board. I guess Ryan can't win with some folks, the Twins have the most active winter meetings of any team and yet people are still bitching they didn't do enough. I think his point is we could go out and sign a FA pitcher of similar quality this year. We have the money available. Why would we trade prospects AND still have to pay $31M? Why not just sign Dempster for 3 years?

They still need a DH, and an aging Morneau could spend some time there as well. I'm not against keeping both of them if Mauer ends up catching more and Doumit ends up more as the backup catcher with an occasional start at DH or RF... Parmalee could be an offensive force, and a healthy Morneau most definitely is one. Mauer is 30 years old this year so I guess I see him out from behind the plate within the next 2 years. He has guaranteed money through 2018 and I have to think the the Twins are concerned about him holding up that long, I know I would be concerned if he stays behind the dish that whole time. If anyone wants to do some research it would make an interesting blog topic on when great catchers have started to move from behind the plate and how that affected their career length and quality. If Morneau gets another, let's say 3 year contract, that locks up DH and 1B. I just think Parmelee isn't going to stick long term in the OF given the prospects moving up in the next year. I guess maybe the Twins could trade Willingham and leave Parmelee in the OF with 2/3 of Benson/Hicks/Arcia depending on who pans out.

Morneau has always seemed to be a better fit for a July trade to me. His salary is much less of a problem at that point and he, hopefully, have another successful half season under his belt. Of course resigning him is still a possibility but if that happens I have to think Parmelee's days are numbered.

For those of you hating on Dempster that's fine. Pick the FA you like. My point was only that losing Mauer could be partially mitigated by bringing in 1 or 2 big names on contracts that only last 2-3 years.

I guess the alternative is to go out and get a big headline guy like Dempster with the ~40M trading Mauer would free up. While Dempster probably doesn't help the Twins much in the next few years it does give the fans something to show up to the ball park for while also freeing up his salary for the playoff years in the future.

It makes quite a bit of sense, actually. I think it depends on what you get in return. Just getting minor league prospects back is a problem. The fans need something for the major league team this year even if that is a return like Worley, a guy who is young and the fans can point to and say this is a player for our future. We're building around him. I don't know the Red Sox personel or FO well enough to know who that player is that we could actually get back in return. That's not to say we should ONLY be looking to get back MLB ready talent.

BB-Ref is down on Upton/Victorino compared to FG. I agree that both are decent players but Upton's inability to get on base is a huge concern for me. While if Mauer stays healthy, he'll be back behind the plate more often in 2013 (Ryan has said as much). That means his value may actually rise in the coming two years. His decline is certainly a concern from 2015-2018, though. Do you think the Twins will be competitive in 2013 or '14? If not what does it matter if Mauer is good in '13 or '14? What will matter (hopefully) is his production in the out years when he is 33+.

This is where we're disagreeing and this changes the entire argument based on perspective. I think Dempster gets three years and Marcum gets four. I don't see anybody outside of scrubs getting two year deals this offseason. As for trading either of them in a year or two, that is definitely something to consider. I think I am right back to my original point. People are seemingly dismissing this out of hand. I think that is a mistake. There are some potentially very big benefits. Just how big those benefits ended up depends on exactly how things would play out. I don't think this is a cut and dry "HELL NO!" answer I guess.

Of course, as someone said earlier, this is all probably a moot point. I find it HIGHLY unlikely that Mauer would wave his no trade clause.

While I don't entirely disagree with much of your post, I want to focus on this. Dempster and Marcum will hamstring the payroll as bad or worse than Mauer and even when combined, equate to a similar amount of wins (Mauer is roughly a 5 win player, Marcum/Dempster combined are 5 win players). Both are older than Mauer and from 2013-2015 (not getting either for less than three years, probably more with Marcum), will be more expensive and declining more rapidly than Joe due to advanced age (mostly Dempster). To boot, to get both those guys, you're looking at paying at least $25m a year, probably more. Keeping Mauer is a risk. There's no denying that. But considering free agent salaries this offseason, Mauer's production per dollar is actually good compared to what these other clowns are getting on the market. It's absurd to think that BJ Upton is a $15m player or that Jeremy-freakin-Guthrie is an $8m guy. And just LOL at Shane Victorino at $13m. This offseason is bananas. If you even manage to get rid of Mauer, that $23m you spend to replace him is going to bring you less in return than Joe. With that said, I'm not against trading him if a team offers the farm for ol' Joe. I don't really disagree with much of what you're saying but you seem to be missing my larger point. Dempster and Marcum only lock that $23M up for 2-3 years. That means when the Twins need payroll flexibility the most they will have it. Come 2016 when we need that starting 2B we will have the cash to go get him. Here's another bonus of the "Dempster/Marcum" approach (again, it could be any players...I just threw those 2 out there). Mauer's contract makes him very difficult to move. Dempster/Marcum could very well be tradeable in the future for more prospects. Which of course then frees up the $23M again to go sign some big names the next season. Does anyone think that there won't be a market in July or next December for good starting pitching?

Given what we've seen in the past few weeks, I very much think the Twins will be getting $23m of production from Mauer. Guys like BJ Upton are getting $15m a year now. Jose Reyes goes from $10m to $22m in 2014. Greinke, a borderline #1 at best, looks to approach $20m a year. Sanchez, who isn't as good as Greinke, is asking for $16-17m. I'm perfectly content with Mauer at $23m, provided he doesn't completely break down. FWIW, you can add the 2012 WAR of Greinke AND Sanchez together and they're about the same value as Mauer by himself. The Twins very well might get $23M of production from Mauer this year and perhaps next year. Maybe even 2015. But how about when Joe is 33, 34, 35 years old? Those are the years we are going to be competitive. Those are the years we could really use that $23M to go out and get that [insert position of need] we are missing. Those are also the years Joe is going to be getting worse and worse. His value will be dropping, especially since he very well might be DH'ing at that point, but his salary will remain $23M. The Twins are going to continue to lose fans with or without Joe Mauer on the team. That is what happens when you're bad. Unless TR makes a big splash in the FA pitching market we're going to be bad this year and quite possibly next year as well. Those same fans will return when a good product is on the field as shown by the early 2000's attendance resurgence. Joe Mauer isn't going to save this team from poor attendance numbers. But he very well could prevent this team from making a move in 2017 when the Twins are competitive. So the question ultimately comes down to are a few thousand fans a game in 2013 &2014 worth $23M when the Twins are competitive again? Keep in mind the Twins could use that $23M to go out and get a big name splash to replace Joe Mauer. How does Ryan Dempster AND Shaun Marcum sound?

I think many of you are quick to dismiss this idea. While trading Mauer would certainly hurt in the short term it might be the best long term option. We aren't going to be competitive in 2013 (unless TR all of a sudden decides to spend on FA). We are going to be a transitioning team in 2014. 2015 we might be competitive but 2016+ is looking potentially very strong. In 2013 & '14 Mauer is going to be at his peak but will be wasted on bad teams. By the time 2015 rolls around he will be 32 years old. He probably will be out from behind the plate full time and his hitting could very well be starting to slide. Now you've got years 32-35 of Mauer while you are actually good but he is not (this is all relative of course, he could still put up OK numbers but probably not near his MVP days that he is getting paid for). The real kicker here is the payroll flexibility. We will be paying Mauer $23M for what almost certainly won't be $23M worth of production. We will have so much money wrapped up in Mauer that we won't have much money to go out and sign (or re-sign) that piece we need to put us over the top. While in the short term trading Mauer would be a big PR hit in the long term the payroll flexibility combined with hopefully a very competitive team in 2015+ might making it beneficial.