Oxtung

I appreciate the in depth analysis you did here. We had this very discussion on the forums about a week ago and I came to the same conclusion you did here. His final numbers will depend on how far his babip drops and what happens with his strike outs. On a separate note, Joe was interviewed on an ESPN radio show about a month ago and was asked if he had changed his approach at the plate given his higher power and strike out rates. Joe said no, he hadn't changed his approach and he didn't know why he was suddenly hitting for more power and striking out more.

Not sure about Butera or Herrmann but Pinto already is on the 40-man roster.

Ahhh, I misunderstood your previous post then. Thanks for clarifying.

I guess that is a reason but given the abundance of back end starters the Twins have/will have I don't see that being a great reason. IMO I still think trading him is the way to go. Assuming of course the Twins can find a partner. Potential Homegrown replacements Vance Worley Kyle Gibson Trevor May Alex Meyer Liam Hendriks Pedro Hernandez Andrew Albers Cole De Vries Logan Darnell

Pelfrey has been sent to the 15 day DL with back spasms. Pedro Hernandez has been recalled to replace Pelfrey in the starting rotation. *Grabs a bag of popcorn* Me thinks there might be a few upset fans with this move.

The argument wasn't one statistic is better than looking at a collection of statistics. The argument is that FIP/xFIP (depending on the situation) is a more accurate representation of a pitchers contribution than ERA because they attempt to eliminate fielders and ballpark contributions. Again, I don't think anybody thinks FIP/xFIP are the be all end all of statistics. I think everyone hopes we continue to refine our approach to quantifying individual contributions to the team. I think most people would even agree that looking at a panorama of statistics will give you a better understanding of a pitcher than just looking at one. However, that wasn't the point being argued in this thread.

Several people have made this claim yet failed to express what is valuable about Correia? I can't think of a single thing he brings to the Twins that can't easily be replaced this off season. I can however think of something that would be gained by trading him and that is a prospect. How good a prospect it will be and what that prospect will become I don't know but something is better than nothing as far as I can see. Perhaps there is something I'm not thinking of. Would you (or anyone) care to explain your statement?

I think every one is in agreement that FIP and xFIP are not perfect tools. However, it is a step in the direction of zeroing in on a pitchers true contribution. Frankly ERA was a step along this same path. It's just that we now, or hopefully shortly will, have better tools available to determine a pitchers talent without relying on his fielders and ballparks contributions. May we all see the day when the "Pitchers God Statistic" is discovered!

I disagree with your basic premise. I believe in putting the best product on the field every spring with the intentions of contending. I think that is important, however, once that becomes unlikely then my priority shifts towards contending the next season. In that light Correia adds nothing that is not replaceable. In addition the guy could bring back a player that has a chance of helping the Twins in the future. As frustrating as it is to watch, tanking at the end of a season is actually a good thing because it leads to a higher draft pick. Hopefully that higher draft pick will lead to more success in the future. That is how the Orioles, Rays, Rangers, Athletics, et al became good. They were terrible first and reaped the rewards of top draft picks which several years later turned into a good team that had a chance at contention.

I think most of us are talking past each other. I think most people who are looking to trade him realize that he will never bring back a good prospect, let alone a great one. On the other hand he is utterly replaceable. If you can get anything for him, even if that is a prospect at Rookie ball, why would you not take that opportunity? Perhaps that prospect has a slim chance of turning into a star or even a bench bat. However, that chance of helping the team, however small, is still greater than the chance of Correia helping the Twins 4 or 5 years from now when it matters.

ERA tells the story of what the team did. Every ball put in play requires a fielder to touch it. Even things like pitch selection and framing, even if to what extent is unclear, effect ERA. ERA is very much a team stat, just like RBI's and wins and losses. FIP attempts to tell how the pitcher did. Perhaps it's not a perfect stat, but at least it attempts to recognizes what the pitcher can control and what he can't.

What is so special about KC that the Twins would lose if they traded him? Veteran leadership? Pitching prowess? Both of those things will be available this off season, just like they are every off season. Why would you not trade him? Get whatever you can for him because he is easily replaceable.

I understand that if Mauer strikes out less then his stats can remain similar even if his babip drops. I posted that exact thing recently, though in a different thread. I was definitely incorrect about the number of hitters with an extremely high babip. However, it still is very rare to approach .400. Mauer's is going to fall and when it does it will affect his rate stats. How much it affects those stats will depend on how far his babip falls. So while striking out can minimize the drop off of rate stats caused by the lowering of his babip it remains to be seen if the fewer strike outs can completely offset the babip fall. Really it comes down to two questions, which strikeout rate is the "real Mauer" this year, and second, how far does his babip fall. Personally I don't believe his rate stats are sustainable. I think that his babip fall will be not be completely countered by a reduction in his strike out rates.

IIRC only one person in the history of the game has had a full season babip approaching .400. Joe's won't be there by the end of the season. It is going to fall. When it does all his offensive rate stats will fall as well. So the question becomes where does his babip end at? That will determine where all his offensive stats end at.

I would hope those that have shown they are ready and with potential move the most quickly. Whether that talent comes from the 2nd round or 10th round doesn't matter to me.

I don't believe his stats this year are sustainable. He has a .396 babip which is way above his career average of .348 and is even well above his career high of .378 (2009). When that starts to drop both his slugging and batting average will fall with it. How much they will fall is the real question....

Have you ever seen a correlation study that actually links OPS to individual performance? I've only ever seen OPS linked to team runs. While that might suggest OPS is important for individual hitters it by no means proves it is. If you have seen a correlation study linking OPS to individual run creation to team success I would love to see it!

Plouffe's versatility means there will be a starting position available for him in the future. Not every prospect is going to hack it. Some are going to fail. As long as Plouffe continues to OPS .750-.800 he will have a spot somewhere.

No I didn't miss his point. In fact I acknowledged it right off the bat. . The rest of my post was directly in response to the segment I quoted. That prospects don't spend much time in AAA. While you're right that I didn't do an exhaustive study on length of stay in AAA, I am satisfied that if the very best prospects in baseball are spending considerable time at AAA then most of the lesser prospects probably are as well. If you disagree with that assessment I would love it if you took the time to do the actual research. I think it would be very interesting.

Jokin, please read my posts before you respond to me. You have aggressively tried to back me into a corner of your making. Unfortunately for you I made almost none of the claims you are trying to attribute to me. I will respond to the few points that actually apply to my posts. 2014 is a lost year unless Ryan is aggressive in FA this offseason and brings in considerable talent. Since I think we both agree that isn't going to happen we are really preparing for opening day 2015 and more likely 2016 before we are competitive. I think that Gibson will be in the rotation opening day of 2014, barring injury, and I think he will get the whole year to show what he has unless he completely collapses. Perhaps he won't reach 200 innings, like I said we hope he does. Here is an example of what I'm trying to say. Perkins came up for 29 innings in 2007. However it would take another two seasons and 250 innings of starting before the Twins finally made the realization that Perkins was not a part of their future rotation plans. In the end those 29 innings meant almost nothing. That will also be true of however many innings Gibson throws this year. I'll reiterate once again, I don't mind if Gibson is called up. I just think in the big picture it means very little to his career and to the Twins future if he is.

I think that is the first time anyone has ever called me a front office defender. Regardless you are misunderstanding me. I don't care if he called up now or not. I am not attempting to defend the Ryan or the front office. I am merely pointing out that when you take a step back and look at the long term plan, whether Gibson pitches for the Twins in 2013 or not it doesn't change anything about his future or the Twins. He is going to start 2014 in the rotation and hopefully throw 200 innings. Those will be the important innings during the 2014-2015 offseason and the decisions that need to be made, not anything he does this year.

I would only pay him $3-4M on a one year contract. He is a below average 1st baseman on a team with a glut of potential 1st basemen. Of course I would also go out and spend in FA so those dollars would get used. I guess as long as it is a 1 year contract I won't be too upset what he gets paid.

You think 70 innings this year is going to change how Gibson pitches in 2015 and 2016? That is when the Twins might be starting their window of contention. Personally I think it will have little impact compared to the, hopefully, 200 innings next season. What is so important about opening day 2014? They won't be contenders next season. The important date is opening day 2015, which in itself is pretty optimistic. Unless of course Ryan decides to go out and add legitimate talent via FA this offseason but I think we both know how that will turn out.

It certainly isn't a good idea either. Pelfrey wasn't good before the TJ surgery. Considering how much money the Twins will have to play with I sure hope they find a better pitcher to fill any potential openings in the rotation next season. Depending on the price and the years involved a reclamation like Lincecum or Halladay would definitely intrigue me. Someone with some upside where if you hit it rich you can look to either resign or flip at the deadline for prospects.

And they are elite 42% of the seasons. In fact 25% of the seasons have been ERA+ >140 which is fan-friggin-tastic. You show me a pitcher you can sign for 1 or 2 years that has a realistic chance at an elite season let alone a high probability of one. My definition of elite is an ERA+ >120. Look, no one is saying that elite FA pitchers are going to be awesome every season. Everybody agrees that it is better to develop your own elite pitcher. Everyone agrees it is cheaper too, at least until they are looking for their payday. Just better all around. However the Twins don't have an elite pitcher. They haven't since Santana left. There are only have 2 in the entire minor league system who have a chance at becoming elite and one of those 2 was just drafted and is years away. So how do the Twins fill that role? They have tried filling it by scraping the bottom of the barrel. In the last 15 years the Twins have gotten exactly 1 year of above average pitching from a pitcher acquired through FA. That was Pavano in 2010 with an ERA+ of 109. Several have been down right terrible. So yes, signing an big FA has risks and not every season is going to be perfect. That 42% chance at an elite season is still a better risk than the almost pure dreck the Twins have signed. "Brother" can you show me where anyone is advocating signing anyone long term when they are in their mid-thirties? No? People were advocating for Greinke and Sanchez who are both 29 this season. From my list earlier Halladay was 31 when he signed, Oswalt was 29, Buerhle was 29, Carpenter was 33, Dempster was 32 and Verlander was 27. Here's another one I didn't add earlier. CC Sabathia was 28 when he signed his 7 year contract. In the first 4 years his ERA+ is 135 and he is averaging 226 IP. He pitched so well in fact that the Yankees reworked his contract through to 2016.