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Oxtung

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Everything posted by Oxtung

  1. Oxtung
    Given that half of that data comes against the Twins pitchers I'm not sure that tells much of anything....
  2. Oxtung
    Wow the conspiracy theories are flying! I think it's most likely the QB commit waited until he finished his junior year then spent a few days figuring out what he wanted to do with his future. He probably just didn't want this hanging over his head during his senior year. College football recruiting is incredibly time consuming and invasive. There are kids who just want to get it over with. My guess he doesn't really care what Stewart does. I also don't really buy this lowering Stewart's leverage. He still has a scholarship. He can still make the choice to go to college. Nothing has changed.
  3. Oxtung
    UZR and subsequently, UZR 150 is an accurate representation of a players play so far. However, it is not representational of Hicks future abilities until more data is collected. So while it would be accurate to look at the UZR data and say that Hicks has been below average it would not be accurate to say he is a below average center fielder.
  4. Oxtung
    The study I'm talking about just looked at what level pitchers ended their careers at (minors, solid regular, all star, all time great). HS LHP were far and away the least successful. I think given the need for LHP it isn't surprising that teams would reach for LHP that probably didn't deserve to go in the first round just because they were left handed.
  5. Oxtung
    Dozier has been bad bad bad offensively. He would need to pick up his offensive numbers considerably, add somewhere around 150 to his OPS in order to be considered even adequate at 2nd base.
  6. Oxtung
    This might be the longest I don't know, but my guess it is fueled more by lack of alternatives than by stellar play. Add in the fact that the Twins are already, and were expected to be, slipping from contention and there isn't pressure, either from the need to win or from a prospect, to make a change. The AAA alternatives are both MiLB journeyman and at AA Santana isn't exactly lighting the world on fire with his .680ish OPS and 18ish errors.
  7. Oxtung
    Sheesh that is a tough one. I would be happy with either the Twins chose. They are both high upside picks and if there were something we don't know about Gray that scares the Twins I would have no problem with Stewart.
  8. Oxtung
    The recent data coming out shows that there is no difference in risk really between HS and College RHP taken in the 1st round. Now LHP is a different story!
  9. Oxtung
    I wouldn't be so sure about that. The Twins almost drafted Mark Prior instead of Mauer. The reason they went with Mauer is because Prior's dad let it be known he wasn't interested in playing for the Twins and wouldn't sign. From Ryan's own mouth he says they were split right down the middle. 50/50. The Cubs GM at the time is on record as saying he was taking whoever the Twins didn't take.
  10. Oxtung
    On a separate but somewhat related note, does anybody know where to find this data? Normally splits are season long and game logs aren't splittable into L/R data.
  11. Oxtung
    Here is a quote from Mike Radcliff: Creativity certainly implies one of the four is McGuire. Gray, Appel, Bryant, Stewart are all expecting to go high at this point and will expect to get paid accordingly so they aren't going to allow any creativity.
  12. Oxtung
    There is no pitch f/x system in the minor leagues according to Jack Goins the Twins statistics guru.
  13. Oxtung
    So you're saying he's the Aaron Hicks of Twins Daily?
  14. Oxtung
    HS LHP drafted in round 1 make my knees knock. Matt Garrioch's study showed that they, by far, are the riskiest of the 4 pitching types. % that became solid regular MLB pitchers or better: [TABLE=width: 200] [/TD][TD]RHP LHP Coll. 30% 45% HS 32% 21% [/TABLE] On top of that a full 60% of HS LHP drafted in the first round don't make it to the majors in ANY capacity. For the other 3 it is 25%-35%. Save me Jeebus!!
  15. Oxtung
    This explains SOOOOOOO much. The Twins aren't cheap, they're spending the extra payroll money on R&D! I for one will welcome our new android baseball overlords.
  16. Oxtung
    I'm not sure where that quote came from because it's not in the article that I could find, however it somewhat contradicts Matt Garrioch's study of drafts from '87-'01. Garrioch's study showed that HS LHP taken in the first round were extremely unlikely to be solid or better MLB players with only 20% attaining that level of competence while close to 60% never made the majors at all. On the other hand HS RHP were just as likely, actually slightly more likely, to be solid regulars or better than their 4yr college counter parts. https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B-772wlhxPhPNjUyY2JiMmItYzJlYi00Yjk5LThlOTUtODkwN2IzMTU5ODIx/edit?hl=en_US edit: Those stats are for 1st round draft choices only not including the supplemental round.
  17. Oxtung
    Many of those guys drafted 6-10 were the first HS pitchers off the board though. Grienke was the third HS arm off the board in 2002, Homer Bailey has been meh and was the second HS arm picked in 2004 and Zach Wheeler was the second HS arm of 2009. So at this point only Grienke really stands out as being drafted later than he should have been. Zach Wheeler certainly could be added to that list by next season. All in all though the order in which the HS arms have been drafted seems to have been pretty good. At least with respect to those 2 lists. Rereading your post you clearly are just saying you thing more HS arms should have gone top 5 which I agree with.
  18. Oxtung
    Hunter carried a .224 BA through his first 46 games and it was as high as .252 midway through May. He was striking out at an 18% clip. Hicks has topped out at a paltry .165 and is striking out at a 28% rate. There is a difference between struggling but hanging in there and just flat out getting dominated. Through the same points in their career Hunter was the former while Hicks is the latter.
  19. Oxtung
    Just to add a bit of backing to Markos' excellent post, Matt Garrioch did a study of drafts from '87-'01 and the success rate of all players in all rounds. He found that there was almost no difference between the success rate of high school pitchers and college pitchers drafted in the first round. IIRC high school pitchers actually had a ~1% better chance to become average or better pitchers.
  20. Oxtung
    Not to turn this into a Hicks vs. Revere argument but I think it's fair to include Revere's May stats since we have Hicks. Revere's May: .348/.394/.394 for an OPS of .788. So he had a god awful beginning to the year but that is a very respectable May.
  21. Oxtung
    Yeah a lot of love at the DH spot this season. CR has started 12 players at DH this year but the winner is FM with 13. On a different and depressing note Arcia is 0-13 with 7k's since being sent down.
  22. Oxtung
    But finding a player hitting <.190 in 3 out of 4 two week stretches is hard. There is almost nothing redeeming about Hicks offensive contributions so far. He is flat out struggling. The only small slice of saving grace I can find is he has an unsustainable sub-.200 babip for the season.
  23. Oxtung
    Just to pick a nit...Home runs aren't included in babip numbers.
  24. Oxtung
    Aaron Hick's Slash lines in 2 week chunks. BA/OBP/SLG April 1 - 14: .047/.109/.155 April 14-30: .188/.341/.219 May 1 - 14: .216/.293/.568 May 14-28: .180/.196/.340 Where is this improving? Seems to me you would have had an argument 3 weeks ago but the last two weeks he has once again cratered. I guess he's not been abysmal, stab my eyes out with a railroad spike, bad but he hasn't even sniffed mediocre in the last two weeks. The kid is struggling. There is no reason to keep tossing him to the wolves except that the Twins never made a contingency plan for CF apparently.
  25. Oxtung
    No, worse case scenario is you offer him the qualification offer, he gets hit in the head 2 games into the season and now you got nothing for him, you owe him the absurd $13M, he is done playing and for all of next year you are missing a piece to the puzzle. Second worse case scenario is you sign him to the qualification offer, he stays healthy but continues to be well below average and you're paying him big money, just like this season, and now he is 34, you got nothing for him and you still have to make a decision on what to do with him. I don't see anyway a qualification offer is a good deal. All it does is push back the decision to be made. The Twins should either trade him or, if they feel his "leadership" is valuable enough to offset his poor production, then they should sign him to a multi-year deal at a greatly reduced price.
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