Oxtung
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Everything posted by Oxtung
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Potential 2013 Twins draft pick: Kohl Stewart
Oxtung replied to cmb0252's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
I really don't understand this line of thought. If the question is quicker to MLB vs. better talent (which is what you seem to be saying and others have hinted at as well), talent should always win out. Either way you're going to get 6 years of cheaper team control. Whether that talent is there from 2015-2020 or 2017-2022 isn't worth taking an inferior player, at least IMO. -
Better than the Blue Jays since they gave up no prospects.....
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I'm no draft expert but isn't this really the last year they could reasonably draft underslot as well? I mean if you're drafting let's say 15th, the slot value this year is $2.4m. In order to get a tidy sum of $1.5m to spend later in the draft you'd have to drop all the way to the 59th pick in talent level. So you'd have to drop to second round talent just to save enough money to sign that tough sign middle of the 1st round talent you want to sign in the second round. On the other hand the Twins slot this year is worth $4.5m but if they sign a talent expected to go just 5 slots lower they save that same $1.5m. I just don't see how the underslot draft strategy can work much past the 4th pick overall because slot values start to plateau quickly.
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First off many of us did "rage" about Arcia being called up. However, it was completely different circumstances than Hicks. Arcia was killing it at AAA, and was only supposed to be up for a couple of days, before going back to AAA. Instead his injury replacement stint has lasted much longer than expected and suddenly he is OPSing .892 which is tops on the team. Do I still wish we could earn that extra year of control? Yes. I think Oz will slump at some point and get sent down. Each step of his journey (other than his original 2 day injury replacement) has been logical. On the other hand nothing about the 'Aaron Hicks is our opening day starter' scenario seemed that logical. The only thing he had going for him was his Spring Training numbers. Put the two together and I think that's why there is a difference between the "extra year" fervor.
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Buxton is 3 for 20 with no extra base hits, 6k's with 2CS in his last 5 games so he is in a bit of a funk. It'll be good to see how quickly he can make adjustments (whether it's from an minor injury, different pitching approach or just a mental lapse). Personally I have no problems holding Buxton and Sano at their current leagues until the midway point. I don't think it's wise to let prospects see 3 levels in 1 year for the most part.
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Since he concludes his thought with, "Adding Frazier could give Minnesota the best and most athletic outfield in the majors in five years time." I think he was only mentioning other potential pieces of that OF with some name recognition so his national audience could relate to his writing. The only big missing piece of the OF puzzle was Arcia and he isn't exactly a big name at this point outside of Twins circles where as Hicks spent the entire spring training being fawned over by many major media sources.
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Did I say 5 years of good to elite pitching? I said several. I'll be more specific. I think you're likely to get 3 years. Another year of below average and a year of injury. I would have to look into this but I would suspect that by pushing off your elite FA signing 2 years you can no longer make that signing and pay for all of your elite prospects which will be in Arb and entering FA.
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You mean like how you can afford spend your money now on a FA who is highly likely to give you some good to elite pitching for several years or you can hold on to your money hoping that almost all your prospects develop into above average players 3-5 years from now allowing you to go out to pursue a second tier free agent because you can no long afford to pursue the elite talent level FA?
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And he's not getting paid like an ace. With the influx of revenue salaries are going to keep climbing and climbing quickly. $16m/year is going to look about right or possible even cheap 3 years from now for Sanchez's services. This is the first time I've seen anyone say that even though I think many people believe it and frankly I applaud your honesty. This is the one argument I don't really have a counter point for.
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I see you still believe that GM's should factor in the 2013 results into their offers to 2012 FA's. I like how I went back and looked at 2 complete seasons worth of data showing that your premise doesn't hold water and you still come back to it.
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If it's just innings you're looking for then neither Pelfrey nor Correia were perticularly good signings. Deduno, De Vries, Hendricks, Hermsen, May, Swarzak, Duensing, Rule 5 pick or [insert AAAA starter here] could have provided them. Or the Twins could have targeted a FA starter that actually has provided a lot of innings over the last 3 years: Guthrie 599 IP Haren 650 IP Greinke 604 IP Sanchez 587 IP Dempster 590 IP Jackson 599 IP Marcum 520 IP Instead we ended up with Correia 470 IP and Pelfrey 417 IP. Seems like "injury prone/concern" Marcum still managed to end up with more innings than Correia and Pelfrey. Hell, Liriano and Lohse both pitched more than Correia.
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The A's have had 1 winning season in the last 6 years and are at .500 so far this year. They have been to the playoffs 2 times in the last 9 seasons and haven't been to the World Series. The O's (someone mentioned them earlier too as a good franchise to model after) have had 1 winning season in the last 15 years and have lost 90+ games 7 of those years. The Rays have had 5 straight winning seasons but before that had 10 straight years of 90+ losses with 5 of those years being 99+ loss seasons. So it looks like you're advocating being absolutely terrible for 5-10 years to earn high draft picks. Then before that talent reaches free agency trade that talent to replenish your farm system. That's how the Rays got good and that's how they're staying good. Trade your talent for prospects. That's a nessecity for the Rays, and also for the Twins pre-Target Field, but we now have money we can spend. It's time for us to find our own path forward. One that includes a strong farm system and adding FA talent.
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Many of those talented pitchers will sign extensions before the year is out. Adam Wainright already has this season. It is far from a forgone conclusion that the 2013 FA crop will be stronger than the 2012 FA.
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You are misunderstanding on both accounts. I was/am saying that the Twins had many holes/unknowns this offseason but had internal candidates to potentially fill some of those roles. I am just fine with Parmelee, Plouffe and even Dozier getting looks this season. I think Hicks should have been at AAA to start the season for many reasons but in CF at least we have a prospect with some upside so I let that slide. But we don't have prospects to fill the holes at SS or several pitching slots. I would have been fine with the Twins getting good players at 2 out of those 3 positions and punting the third. Instead they got no shortstop and scraped the barrel for 2 pitchers while just pocketing tens of millions of dollars. I was pretty unclear about my ERA+ methodology so let me explain that better. I looked at the full list of pitchers signed over the previous 3 seasons then using Baseball-Reference determined their actual ERA+ over the 3 year period before they signed in FA. So from 2009-2011 Jason Marquis had an ERA+ of 96 (where 100 is average). In 2012 with the Twins and the Padres he had an ERA+ of 72. He was below average before he signed and below average after he signed. Neither Liriano nor Oswalt were on my lists. Liriano because his 3 year ERA+ was only 89 and Oswalt because in 2012 he was a swing man not a starter.
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Looking at Aaron Hick's splits a couple of interesting things jump out. First he has a .188 babip and has zero hits in 29 balls fielded in the infield. Considering his speed it is surprising he doesn't even have 1 infield hit. Second, he is 9 for 22 when he pulls the ball with all of his extra base hits except his HR. As a LHB he is OPS'ing 1.111 when he pulls the ball. When he tries to go up the middle or away as a LHB he has 1 hit in 29 attempts. I'm not sure what this says about his mindset or his approach but I do find it interesting. Those are some pretty serious splits.
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Who do you want the Twins to draft?
Oxtung replied to Brodin4Calder's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
I would like the Twins to take either Manaea, if they feel his struggles this year are because of injury and that injury will heal fully with no consequences in the future, or Kohl Stewart. Give me the pitcher with the best chance to be an Ace. I think the Twins will either go Manaea or the toolsy of the Georgia OF's (I always get the 2 confused). The track record of drafting toolsy OF's and College arms is just too strong to ignore. -
You're right it's not always a winning strategy. It does make you more likely to win though. Nothing in life is certain. But having the odds in your favor is a good thing.
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So I decided to look into this a bit. In the last 2 off seasons (not counting 2013) there have been 12 pitchers that had posted an ERA+ >100 average for 3 seasons before becoming FA's. 8 of those 12 posted an ERA+ of >100 after signing FA contracts with a ninth posting a 96. Seems like not all FA pitchers fall off the proverbial cliff because they put pen to paper. Or sign them in free agency of course. What's hard to understand is your insistence that signing good pitchers doesn't matter. What's hard to understand is the idea that you think Correia and Pelfrey coming off surgery are close enough to the "average pitcher" catagory to be nearly equivalent to actual average (or better) pitchers. What's hard to understand is the idea that the Twins should just automatically punt the season before it's begun because we think the Twins won't be any good.
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Here we go with the eye test again. Well if you had read this thread you would know I was using ERA+. So yes, there actually were 15 above average pitchers this offseason; it would help if you posted a complete list of pitchers that were signed. Your shortstop comment would have some merit if I had ever said that. However I do stand by this comment: As you can see nothing about gold glove winning, Cabrera-lite hitting shortstops mentioned; only pointed out we had a hole there and the Twins chose to sign 2 below average pitchers.
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There were at least 15 starters available this off season that had been average or better over the last 3 years. You claim there were only 3-4 starters that weren't "back end status". So "back end" must now include >average starters.
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2016 Opening Day Starting Rotation Prediction Thread
Oxtung replied to twinscowboysbulls's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
I don't think things are going to look nearly as pretty as most of you guys. 1) Meyer (but I think he ends up as more of a 2-3 starter in most rotations) 2) FA in the Pavano mold 3) Gibson 4) One of the reliever turned starter recent acquisitions 5) Rule 5 addition or Trade -
If all that mattered was getting innings then why sign anybody? The Twins had plenty of pitchers in the minors who would have been ecstatic about playing MLB. If this team is so doomed that talent doesn't matter why do we still have Willingham, Mauer, Morneau? Or if we take your idea to the ultimate end....why play the games at all? Why not just forfeit and have our players work on their skills so that at some point in the future when we have that perfect roster we can go attempt to win the World Series again?
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I didn't realize that "above average" had become synonymous with "back end" of the rotation. They really should send text's out letting us all know about these definition changes.
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Your small words and paragraph spacing has convinced me. There is almost no difference between the previously average or better pitchers and what the Twins signed because 93% of the FA pitchers are going to regress significantly this year where as Correia and Pelfrey are not. The Twins clearly shouldn't try to improve their ball club this season because the odds of them doing well are small. Finally, all GM's should have factored in the results of the 2013 season before they signed the FA's in 2012.
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I see...so you believe that a pitcher that hasn't even approached being average in the last 5 seasons has a better chance of being average or better than pitchers that have achieved that accomplishment several times in the last 3 seasons? Again, Correia's ERA+ was a 78. You also keep bringing up this seasons stats as if they mean anything in this discussion. Your logic can use some work. All that matters is what was known BEFORE the FA's signed. Unless you think the Toronto Blue Jays should have known Happ was going to get beaned in the head.
