Oxtung
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Everything posted by Oxtung
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I think you must have misread my post. I specifically said there was still much of the season left. I mentioned his absurdly low babip even in comparison to the other abysmal hitters. None of that changes the fact that right now his OPS is .510. Should I try and divine his final OPS of the season? Or should I just not supply background information to help put his season in context?
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Why Morneau's trade value is ebbing rapidly....
Oxtung replied to jokin's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
There are so many unknowns in this hypothetical it is very hard to say. I would if the right circumstances were in place. -
In the last 50 years there have been 21 players that have OPS'd <.511 in their rookie seasons. Of those players 4 were above replacement level for their careers. Most only lasted 1 or 2 years. The "headliner" of this group is Brandon Inge with a career WAR of 15.7 (FG). Hicks' season is not over and everybody certainly hopes that he improves his batting and there are some reasons to think he might, his babip is a paltry .188 where as most on the list were in the .230-.250 range. However, at his current level he doesn't even project to be an average player. A scary thought. Of the 21 players that debuted to an OPS <.511 four were Twins. Luis Gomez in 1974, Houston Jimenez in 1984, Danny Thompson in 1970 and Hicks.
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Why Morneau's trade value is ebbing rapidly....
Oxtung replied to jokin's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I think they should trade him for whatever they can get. I would hope for perhaps a Polanco or Kepler in another teams system. Someone in A ball that looks to have upside. Morneau won't be around in 2016 when this team has a chance to be a contender. When you're rebuilding, and especially when you're rebuilding solely through the draft and trades, you can't afford to squander any chips on the table. Every decision needs to be made with 2016 in mind and unfortunately that means moving Morneau. If Parmelee doesn't pan out there will be options available in FA this year. Some of them are even superior to Morneau, as it stands right now. Just to be clear, my opinion would be different if the Twins were willing to go out and spend to fill the holes on this roster but that "try to win now with FA's while waiting for our prospects to come up in 2-3 years" attitude doesn't seem to exist. -
Matt Garrioch looked at draft success rates from '87-'01, so that doesn't entirely answer your question, but he found that success rates of pitchers taken in the first round were pretty much the same for pitchers taken from HS and 4yr colleges. He found that ~26% of college pitchers and ~23% of HS pitchers became occasional all-stars or better. Another ~4% of College pitchers and 9% of HS pitchers became solid regulars. You can check out more on his google docs page here: https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B-772wlhxPhPNjUyY2JiMmItYzJlYi00Yjk5LThlOTUtODkwN2IzMTU5ODIx/edit?hl=en_US
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Everybody agrees that Gibson has put up some great starts. He has also put up some real clunkers. It is literally every other (up until last night at least). I certainly would have been OK with Gibson getting the call rather than Walters. My point is that this isn't clear cut. People have been hammering the Twins for their "consistency" comment when that is a legitimate position to take.
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OK this is getting a bit absurd. Kyle Gibson might have better stuff than Walters. He might be a bigger part of the future. He might be Superman in disguise but there were legitimate reasons to call up Walters instead. This was pointed out in another thread by Seth Stohs: Gibson's odd starts: 35.2IP, 4ER, 0.50ERA, 17H, 32K Gibson's even starts: 17IP, 17ER, 9.00ERA, 29H, 14K He was absolutely dominant in his odd starts but in his even starts he was dominated. The odd start Gibson screams, "promote me!!!" where as the even start Gibson screams, "I need help!!!". It is not unreasonable for the Twins to wait to see which Gibson is the real Gibson. On the other hand Walters had put together 6 straight starts with >6IP and a 2.06ERA. He had been pitching great.
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Article: Joe Benson claimed off waivers by Rangers
Oxtung replied to PseudoSABR's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Schmidt posted an OPS+ of 92 that year. Hick's OPS+ currently is 43. I don't think anybody is saying Hicks will never make it. I think people are just saying if there was another option in CF he needs to get moved down to AAA to work on his obvious flaws. Continuously hitting .150 doesn't seem to be helping him. -
Are you saying that they don't get the money back the following year? I can't see that being the case. It would make signing a pick nearly impossible the second year. If they do get the money the following year then what have they lost? Only a year of development but they stand a chance to gain a pitcher that was considered to be in the running for #1 overall before injuries slowed him down. That is some pretty big upside with very little risk.
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Let's just say that I disagree with just about every "point" you make in your rant. Instead of going point by point I'll just say that it was entirely possible to foresee that Benson, Hicks and Mastroianni would not provide the quality CF play that a team would hope for. In fact many posters did foresee this.
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I think Hicks is a product of their poor planning going into the season. If there was an alternative I think Hicks would have been sent down long ago.
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The Twins value different attributes than you do. You are willfully ignoring that at this point. Gibson has not been a stud at AAA. He hasn't even been better than Walters. You're making a mountain out of a molehill.
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Just to be clear I have no problem with Mauer. I think he is a great player. I'm not even sure I would trade him as a GM. I do think a trade will not happen both because I think the Twins would never do it and because I think Joe would veto it. However as a purely academic discussion I think this issue is not as black and white as people are portraying it. There are reasons to keep him. Fan support being the biggest. There are also reasons to trade him, none of which have to do with money since big FA spending isn't in the plans of this franchise. If you're building a team strictly through your minor league talent, or trades of current players who once were your minor league talent, then you need as many pieces as you can get and hope that enough of them pan out to bring you back to relevancy. Joe would bring back a significant set of prospects. Who those prospects are clearly is important. IMO I don't think he is worth as much, either to the Twins or other teams, as has been thrown around in this thread. The alternative is you hold onto a player that will be entering his decline phase when this team might be getting good. Father time doesn't care that he plays for the Twins or used to be a premier athlete or has a pretty swing. He plays the most physically demanding position in baseball. While it is possible that he remains productive throughout his contract the odds are vastly against him. So to sum up quickly: 1) I like Mauer as a player. 2) I don't think a trade will happen so this is purely academic. 3) There are legitimate reasons to trade him.
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Article: Joe Benson claimed off waivers by Rangers
Oxtung replied to PseudoSABR's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Yeah that seems like a strange decision. There were plenty of players available with absolutely no upside who could have gone.... -
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A Mauer trade wouldn't be just about saving money, although I'm not naive enough to think that the Pohlad's wouldn't love to pocket that money, but a significant part of the trade would be the prospects received in return. For better or worse this team is going to sink or swim in the future based on it's prospects. The odds of a good team in 2016 increase with every prospect we can acquire. You can never have enough good prospects. On the other hand by the time 2016 rolls around and the Twins might actually be playing playoff baseball Mauer will be 33. I haven't looked this up but I would guess there aren't many catchers that are still good players let alone elite by the time they turn 33.
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BA prospect hot sheet April 12 and tyler duffey
Oxtung replied to cmb0252's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Plouffe is 9th in OPS so far this year for 3B. So yeah.... -
I'm sure there are some fans that do. I was not trying to imply there weren't. But I think those seats would easily be sold if the team was winning where as Joe Mauer fans won't keep the stadium full on their own. Also, how many of those Joe Mauer fans would find new favorite players and still come to the game?
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Of course he also went 4 innings and 3 innings preceding those 2 starts.... Of his 9 starts this year 3 have been less than 5 innings. It's not like he's been just straight up dominating. He has been mixing good start with bad start. It's literally every other. If the Twins truly prize pitchers who go deep into ball games like their rhetoric implies then it's no surprise that they haven't called him up yet. On the other hand PJ Walters has pitched 7 straight games with >6IP. He has also given up 3 or less runs in his last 6 starts. This isn't black and white like you want it to be. PJ has pitched very well for Rochester this year.
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Or what the Twins look for in pitchers isn't what you look for. Just because you have a fundamental difference in opinion in pitchers from the Twins, and this applies to most people on this board including me, doesn't mean the Twins are "playing games" with their pitchers. It could just mean they believe other pitchers are more likely at this point to be successful at the MLB level.
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I agree 100% with the Dr. on this one. That author had an opinion from word one and let you know it at every turn. He dismissed the pitchers that didn't agree with his already formed conclusions and emphasized those that followed his desired conclusion. He freely admits he cherry picked. Just a bad article all around. Which is sad because I actually think his idea is a good one and I would be really interested in an actual analysis of Twins pitchers comparing their results here vs. elsewhere.
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Not to drag this too far off topic but you better get used to Correia, he is signed for next season too so he'll be getting a very long leash. If he can keep going into the 6th and 7th innings he'll keep starting all season, regardless if that is with 3 or 5 ER's.
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Herrmann's AAA OPS: .584 Butera's AAA OPS: .584
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I believe the Twins want their starters to consistently go 6+ innings and the more the better. They don't seem to care if that comes with an ERA of 3 or 5 as long as you can pitch deep into a game. Their retoric surrounding pitchers always is about "giving us innings" and "going deep into games" and "saving the bullpen". I would guess the Twins don't feel that Gibson can consistently do that. The other problem I really have with this discussion, and really any when it comes to how fast to move a minor league player, is all that we look at are some stats, maybe we get to see a game or three. We then form opinions on incredibly incomplete information. Just because a guy has a low ERA or a high OPS doesn't mean there aren't things he needs to be working on before advancing to the next level. If a prospect can make adjustments and be successful at a lower level that bodes well for when that prospect does advance. If you can correct mistakes before they are exposed that will increase the amount of success a prospect will have. Ultimately that is what we are hoping for. Successful prospects.
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I disagree with this. I think what fans really want, and this is true no matter what sport, is a winning team. If it was only about star players then why has attendence taken a nose dive the last few years and why does it nudge even further south when they fall out of contention?
