Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Oxtung

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,027

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Oxtung

  1. Oxtung
    So, if you DFA Butera and he gets taken by another team, what do you do if Mauer or Doumit get's hurt? Or Doumit get's traded? Herrmann is really struggling offensively and during ST the Twins were really not happy with his defense. IIRC they were questioning if he could even play catcher at the MLB level. Danny Lehmann has played all of 4 games and has never hit worth a darn at any level. I don't know anything about Fryer. Perhaps he could play. He did get 16 games with the Pirates in 2011-2012. Pinto has played all of 57 games above A ball. Dan Rohlfing is another guy I know little about but he has never played above AA either. He had a good ST, iirc, but we saw what that means with Hicks. Diddly Squat! Given these guys I won't blame the Twins for keeping Butera on the 40 man roster this season. Look at it again in the second half of the season when Pinto, who looks like he could be a possible solution at catcher, has had more PA's.
  2. Oxtung

    Walters

    Oxtung replied to drjim's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk

    Chalk me up to agreeing with John. The money excuse doesn't seem likely to me given Hicks and Arcia.
  3. Oxtung
    We had this thread in the offseason when the rumors first appeared. There is a lot of sentimentalism surrounding Joe and the majority of people didn't want it to happen. Fr a business standpoint it is probably a bad idea since you'd be telling the fans your giving up on the next few years and creating backlash. From a long term competitiveness stand point I think it is an intriguing idea. Depends a lot on what prospects someone is willing to give up.
  4. Oxtung
    There was a quote on MLBTradeRumors.com at the beginning of the season by a gm essentially saying Butera would get claimed for sure. He said that good defensive catchers are always in demand. Given that info and the fact that Herrmann is hitting sopoorly Butera needs to stay on the roster I would think in case mauer or doumit get injured.
  5. Oxtung
    First let me just say I agree with Alex, I am suspicious of your slow pither theory. However, wins and losses still wouldn't tell you about who is a slow pitcher and who is fast. So you're still stuck with W/L's not telling u anything useful.
  6. Oxtung
    Parker your analysis is just awesome. Thanks!
  7. Oxtung
    I agree on Hermsen. You can't really DFA Butera even if he was healthy because of how much Herrmann is struggling in AAA. There needs to be a backup catcher in case Mauer or Doumit get hurt. Pinto isn't ready for that yet.
  8. Oxtung
    Chief the problem with your premise is that W's are a team stat. It's not a pitcher stat. It tells you nothing about how a pitcher actually pitched. Remember you said: Now to a question you pose. Would I take the 18 wins over the 13? No, I'd take the pitcher that pitched better because he more likely lead to more team wins. If pitcher A wins 18 but does so because his team hits like a mother ****** and then in the other 13ish starts he gets crushed and they lose how is that better than a pitcher that only gets 13 wins but keeps the game close allowing his team to win later in the game? This all comes back to the fact that a win is a team statistic. A pitcher only contributes 30% or so of that win. That means 70% came from other players (obviously I made those numbers up but 50% comes from hitters and then a significant portion of a win comes from fielders). You can only judge a pitcher on what he can control.
  9. Oxtung
    There is no pitch f/x system in the minors. I think that it's a guy marking where he believes those pitches were for the Gameday app. This last spring Jack Goins remarked that he would like to install pitch f/x in all the minor league ballparks but the cost was prohibitive.
  10. Oxtung
    If wins and losses are determined by a team effort, which I think you're agreeing with, then by definition they require the hitters support right? If they require hitters then how does that tell you about a pitching performance? As Puck pointed out, give me King Felix any day. Over the course of a season he's going to lead to more team wins even if his personal win/loss record isn't as high as other pitchers because Seattle can't hit a whiffle ball.
  11. Oxtung
    No doubt Morneau has been hitting better recently. His .867 OPS these last 24 games has been good. However do to his terrible .628 OPS in the first 18 games his overall OPS is still below average. So, as others have already said, if he continues to hit better his value will increase but at this point he is underachieving for the season. I'm not all that hopeful going forward because over his hot stretch he has a babip of .407. That is unsustainable and both his BA and SLG will be affected when that comes back to Earth. Look I will freely admit that I thought Morneau was going to have a comeback year. Obviously to be under achieving you have to compare it to some baseline. Mine was an OPS around .850. He is underachieving in comparison. If you didn't believe he'd have a turn around year then he is pretty much at last years numbers and so probably wouldn't be underachieving.
  12. Oxtung
    Thome?
  13. Oxtung
    Wins and Losses tell you nothing about how a pitcher pitched. They are a team stat. Just because a pitcher gets a win doesn't mean he pitched well enough to deserve that win. Worley's first win came on a night that he gave up 5ER's over 5 innings with a WHIP above 2. By any measure that is not a good pitching performance and yet he got the win because the Twins bats that night were even better. On the other side of the spectrum Liam Hendricks took a loss after 5 innings where he gave up 4 hits and zero walks with just a solo home run. Great outing and yet he gets saddled with a loss because the bipolar Twins couldn't put the bat on the ball. Run support is very important in determining wins and losses. Pitchers have no control over that.
  14. Oxtung
    That would be important if RBIs had any bearing on how well Morneau is hitting. But they don't. They are a function of Mauer's absurd .416 OBP hitting ahead of Morneau. On the other hand OPS is highly correlated with runs scored, at least at the team level, and he is 11th out of 18th in OPS. In other words 10 of the 14 other teams have better hitting 1st baseman in the AL.
  15. Oxtung
    I don't know if he'll continue at his current pace but the Florimonster has been a pleasant surprise all around. If he can just be around average offensively he is a keeper for several years. Morneau, Willingham, Hicks, Parmelee and Doumit have all been underachieving. By a lot. I is sad kitty.
  16. Oxtung
    Damn, I thought leeching was abolished following the Renaissance. I guess it explains somethings about our medical staff...
  17. Oxtung
    This really isn't a stat per se but I didn't know where else to put it. In the Reds vs. Phillies game on Sunday, down 1 run, Delmon Young drew a 1 out walk in the bottom of the ninth. Looking to bring a little extra speed into the game Charlie Manuel called on his bench bringing in Cliff Lee to pinch run. That's right. The 34 year old pitcher pinch ran for Delmon Young.
  18. Oxtung
    Several people have made comments similar to this about trading Parmelee. If you don't think he is good enough for a bottom feeder team like the Twins why would another GM want him? And if another GM doesn't want him how does he bring back any prospects either by himself or as an add in?
  19. Oxtung
    RBI's tell you nothing about how a player hits with RISP. For his career Joe Mauer has a .344 avg, .960 OPS with 492 RBI's. Justin Morneau has a .286 avg, .861 OPS with 570 RBI's. So Mauer clearly is a better hitter and yet doesn't have as many RBI's. Why? Because Morneau has had >200 more plate appearances than Joe with RISP. It's simple, Mauer always hitting in front of Morneau and being on base lead directly to Morneau's RBI totals. If you believe in "clutchiness" and think it applies to driving runs in then look at the stat that directly measures it. RISP. So to recap, RBI's tell you nothing of value about a batter.
  20. Oxtung
    That link has no correlation study as others have said. They compare team rankings, not actual team numbers. Logically, of course you're probably right anyways about RBI correlation. That doesn't change the fact that RBI doesn't tell us anything helpful about a player.
  21. Oxtung
    The real problem with RBI's is that it doesn't directly measure anything useful. You want to know if someone is a good hitter? OPS is a much better stat that more closely correlates to runs. Want to know how "clutch" a batter is? Well RISP stats measure that directly. Power? Well there is ISO and Slugging. There is almost nothing that RBI totals measure that can't be measured better by different stat.
  22. Oxtung
    As others have mentioned to you several times, RBI's are a team statistic not an individual accomplishment. The fact that Morneau is OPSing .760 is much more significant than his RBI totals. Here is a stat from ESPN.com: As that stat points out, you put up big RBI totals not because you're a great hitter but because the guys ahead of you are.
  23. Oxtung
    There are also better things. I'm of the opinion that signing somebody because "he isn't the worst player out there," is a bad reason and a bad decision. Players should be signed because you think they are an improvement, can grow into an improvement or allow you to improve in other areas. Morneau, and not to drag this off topic but this is my problem with Pelfrey and Correia too, don't fall into any of those catagories.
  24. Oxtung
    Not only that but now you have the same problem but it's 2014, not 2013, and Morneau is now a year older. No, a decision needs to be made this season on Morneau's future. Putting if off 1 year does nothing. Either a multi year end of career contract needs to be extended to Morneau for a 7 figure per year salary or he needs to get traded for whatever he can bring back. I obviously fall in the second camp.
  25. Oxtung
    So it is worth keeping a player who potentially will be below average (not a stretch since he was a below average 1st baseman in 2012) because the fans like him? I disagree with that. I think what fans want most is a winning team. If replacing Morneau is part of that improvement I think it needs to happen.
×
×
  • Create New...