Oxtung

Of course they're hit and miss. That's the nature of sports. Some people have bad years. Since you can't know ahead of time which pitchers those are going to be you look at the probability of a good year happening. Correia could have a good season but the probability of that happening is much lower than that of those other pitchers. That's why he was a bad sign and an even worse sign for 2 years.

Sheesh...Fien seems to be just about the worst move they could make. Wood, Roenicke, Swarzak, Pressly or even Duensing could all go as far as I'm concerned. Probably in that order too. Fien actually has a track record of success, albeit small, but still some success. What do (other than Duensing) those other pitchers have to show they are capable of being good at this level?

Well this is clearly going no where so I'll just make my last point then leave it. If there are no stats to back something up then it is just a guess. Guesses can be right but are wrong a disturbingly high percentage of the time also.

Don't get your hopes up. You're almost guaranteed to be disappointed!

Well I'm talking in a general sense about almost anything but your claims about catcher defense fall under that general sense. If something is unquantifiable then it seems to be unknowable. So when you said: I was wondering how you knew it was very very important.

So because it's always been that way..... in other words.

If it's unquantifiable then how do you know it's "very important"?

That was poorly worded sorry. I mean that over the next two weeks his batting average needs to be >.200, or however long before Mastro is ready, not that his season BA needs to be at .200. Basically he needs to show that he is capable of hitting MLB pitching otherwise he is a black hole this team just can't afford at the beginning of the season. I would say send him down right now but the Twins have nobody to replace him in CF unless they believe Arcia can hack it defensively. Of course Arcia isn't tearing it up in his SSS either. This whole mess falls on the front office for not bringing in someone who can reliably man center field.

June 1? I think unless he shows real improvement in the next 2 weeks (when Mastro should be coming back), and I'm talking actually making solid contact and hitting let's say close to .200, then he should be sent back to AAA. It's all well and good to think this is a lost season where there isn't a chance but right now we're 1 game back. Until we are truly out of contention we should be playing to win and starting a player who is hitting .059 is not going to get us to the playoffs. If the Twins fall from contention there will be plenty of time for Hicks to come up and show that his beginning to the season wasn't representative of his real performance levels.

Welcome to the dark side kab. Welcome to the last home you'll ever need. Feed your obsession. We want only the best at #4.

Parker your breakdowns and use of visuals are a great way to help people, like me, better understand some of the finer points of the game. I really appreciate your articles.

Unless you're the Twins and you only have 10 seasons of Kevin Correia's stats of course. Then the all mighty eye test is the only way to play.

Blasphemy!! We all know it doesn't count if they don't win it all and just being a little better doesn't make it more fun to watch. Just like we know it doesn't matter who they sign as FA's because we're going to lose no matter what! Have you already forgotten your offseason memes?

Morneau Yankees- Lyle Overbay (1b) is 36 and has a .683 OPS over the last 3 seasons. The Bronx Bombers have no prospects for 1B. Rays- James Loney (1b) is 28 and had a .629 OPS last season. Shelley Duncan is a 33 year old career backup getting a chance to start at DH this year. The Rays don't have any prospects for 1B or DH but do have stud OF Will Myers at AAA. Maybe they could shift their fielders around to fill a hole? Even if the Rays are interested would they be willing to take on the salary of Morneau or Willingham? Would the Twins ever think of picking up part of the tab? Athletics- 29 year old career backup Brandon Moss (1b) is getting a shot for the A's this year. He did have a nice half season in 2012 and his career OPS is .763. Can he play well enough in a full time role? The A's have no internal replacement candidates so if things go poorly they will have to look outside the org for support. However, like the Rays could they afford Morneau? White Sox- Paul Konerko is 37. Adam Dunn is 33. That's all I'm saying. They do have fringe prospect Gillaspie on the roster as a backup 3B/1B already. Giants- Brandon Belt (1b) is a 24 year old with only 1 year of playing time. He did OPS a respectable .738 as a rookie but sophmore slumps aren't unheard of. The Giants have a fringe prospect at AA. Blue Jays- Adam Lind (DH) has come on hard times recently. His OPS over the last 3 seasons is .724. If he stumbles there is no help inside the Blue Jays organization. Rangers- Like the White Sox they have a good hitting veteran in 37 year old Lance Berkman (DH). If he can no longer produce they do have standout prospects at AAA in Profar (SS) and Mike Olt (3B).

Willingham Yankees- Vernon Wells (OF) and Ichiro Suzuki (OF) are both old and pretty bad but the Yankees have Brennan Boesch as a backup and have 4 OF prospects at either AA or AAA to start the year including a top 100 prospect in Austin. Red Sox- Neither Shane Victorino (OF) nor Johnny Gomes (OF) are big sluggers but they aren't terrible either. Sox have two good OF prospects at AAA including stud Jackie Bradley jr. Orioles- Nate McLouth (OF) has been pretty bad the last 3 seasons but they have a decent 4th OF in Reimold and have a good prospect at AAA in Hoes. Blue Jays - Colby Rasmus (CF) is a bad hitting CF but he is only 26. It's possible the Jays could move Melky Cabrera back to CF, he has played full seasons there as recently as 2011. Adam Lind (DH) was a real nice prospect and had a couple of good seasons but he is now 29 and over the last 3 years has a .724 OPS. They have no prospects for either OF or DH. Angels- Peter Bourjos (OF) had a bad 2012 (.606 OPS) and is a CF but the Angels could move Trout back to CF opening LF up for Willingham. Trumbo is their backup and will hit but can he be an everyday outfielder? They also have a good prospect at AAA and two at AA. Detroit- Andy Dirks (OF) is a career backup getting an opportunity to start at 27. Detroit is stocked at OF in the minors though with multiple prospects at both AAA and AA including top 50 Castellanos. White Sox- Dayan Viciedo (OF) is only 24 and has played 1 season in MLB. It was a pretty good rookie year OPS'ing 737 but sophmore stumbles are not unheard of. The Sox have 3 prospects at AA. Adam Dunn (DH) is 33 and in 2011 had a .569 OPS. Marginal 3B/1B prospect Gillaspie is already on the roster as a backup this year. Reds- Chris Heisey a below average LF with a career OPS of .737. The problem here is the Reds have big time prospect Billy Hamilton at AAA this year. Giants- Gregor Blanco (LF) is a 29 year old with a career .681 OPS. Even with a .700 OPS at the trade deadline last year the Giants made no move. Will they this year? They also have 3 real nice prospects at AAA headlined by Brown a fringe top 100 prospect. Rays- Shelley Duncan (DH) is a career backup and 33 years old looking to get his first shot at the starting DH role. His career OPS is 676. The Rays have stud OF prospect Will Myers, he came over in the KC trade, ready to contribute. Perhaps they could move their fielders around when he is ready to fill the DH role. Rangers- For the most part the Rangers are setup real nice this year at OF and DH but Lance Berkman is 37 years old this year. At some point he is going to decline. Is this the year? Of course even if it is the Rangers have uber prospects Jurickson Profar and Mike Olt only a call away at AAA.

Looking at teams that could potentially trade for Morneau or Willingham the pickings are slim at this point. The best bets seem to be the Blue Jays who could need help in the OF or at DH,the White Sox who could need help at DH or 1B if Konerko or Dunn succumb to age finally or the Yankees who are counting on Lyle Overbay at 1b. Many teams have OF prospects at AAA this year ready to fill potential holes making things difficult for Willingham to matchup potentially. I only looked at teams expected to contend this year and only if they had an obvious weakness going into the season. Of course there will be injuries and good players who just fall apart throughout the year so more teams might become potential trade partners later in the season. I have more detailed analysis in the next 2 posts if your interested.

I just cried a little bit inside.

Perhaps...but on the other hand baseball is really the only sport right now that could have significant input from technology to improve the ref'ing. That's not to say that other sports ref's are better or that other sports couldn't improve with more consistent ref'ing afforded by technology but technology just isn't advanced enough to help much other sports. Personally I don't see it getting to that point any time soon either. Take football, it would be great if there were some kind of GPS technology to help more accurately place the ball but the technology just isn't there yet. Likewise technology can't make a judgement call about pass interference or leading with the helmet or roughing the passer or holding. Seems to me baseball is much more technology friendly. In the end baseball might be the first to adopt some major technology improvements just because the technology isn't ready yet for football, basketball or hockey.

As awesomely hot as some of our prospects have started the season we need to always keep in the back of our minds that it is a long season, even if this is hard to do. Prospects will struggle at some point. Mike Zunino started the season hitting almost .500 with 4 home runs in his first 5 games. Then the roof fell on his head and he has gone 0-16 with 7k's. This doesn't make him any less exciting as a prospect and his slump will not last just like his torrid start couldn't last. We need to keep this in mind when some of our big time prospects go through some struggles inevitably this year. It's a long season and ups and downs are to be expected.

I think he won't be up until 2014. This year seems to be the year to decide on Deduno, DeVries, Hernandez and Hendriks. Then you have Gibson who will likely be the next callup, of course this depends on how he's pitching to an extent. Following that Hermsen MIGHT get a look then there is also May. That's a lot of competition for a guy who has pitched 2 games above A ball to leapfrog. I think next year is the year to decide on May and Meyer and perhaps late in the year one of the recently drafted college arms. I think the better a player is the more important it is to get that 7th year of control. Especially when you're bringing up potentially pretty young guys. Let's just agree to disagree on that though. No need to go another round tilting at those windmills.

It's a sad state of affairs when almost everyone agrees that our best middle infielder should be on the bench most games because an inferior player needs playing time. The fact that this is happening only 12 games into the season is just depressing. It's going to be a long year when there is little hope to be had 2 weeks into the season.

Agreed. I'm saying the Twins don't want it to turn into a player option. I think in addition to on the field reasons (like he's turning 40 and his production might very well dip accordingly) there are equally strong roster and monetary reasons for it. How can you say this when the team has cut payroll by $30+ million and refused to sign decent FA's because of money concerns? I'm not saying money is the only reason but how can you think money IS NOT a reason?

The Twins just cut $30+ million from their payroll. They chose to pursue cheap FA's (Pitching) or no FA's (cf, 2B, SS, 3B). Their reasoning was players were either too expensive or asking for to many years. It seems to me that the Twins want control over whether to exercise Carroll's 2014 contract because of both the money and the length of contract. Perhaps there are on the field factors as well but it seems clear the money is a part of it too.

Pelfrey is a below average pitcher. His ERA+ is 91. He is the kind of pitcher you can find on the FA market any year. That isn't the kind of pitcher you sign to multi-year deal, unless you're Kevin Correia and your "stuff is better than the stats say" of course. If you can get ANYTHING back for Pelfrey you ship him out (making the safe assumption of course that we are out of contention at that point).

Hmmm...Deduno and DeVries have been on the DL. Hendriks started the season with the club and Hernandez had a 4.99 ERA with a 1.548 WHIP at AAA so he hasn't exactly been beating the door down. As far as I can tell nobody has been blocked so far. Meanwhile Pelfrey and Worley have pitched all of 3 games. Let's see where they are at after 7 or 8 starts. Both have a track record suggesting they can pitch in MLB.