Oxtung

I don't think anyone would disagree with the idea that some pitchers can throw more pitches per start than other pitchers without having harmful lasting effects. Some pitjchers can throw 98mph and some can only through 88mph. It stands to reason there differences in a pitchers stamina too. However, the only way to know which pitchers can throw 120 pitches per outing is to let all of them go out there and try. Then the ones that don't end up ruining their arms or going on the dl or losing 5mph are the ones you can trust to go the extra innings. How many arms are worth ruining to figure out who can go the extra inning in a ball game?

I got it from the original BP article linked to in Parker's article. They are tracking Yadier Molina's weekly and yearly totals in their weekly article. It would be nice if we could see ALL the background data and look at Mauer and Doumit specifically but I don't know that the raw data is easily available.

He can be sent up and down as many times as the Twins want to for the whole 2013 season. Each prospect gets 3 seasons like that. So 2013 will be his first season. Does anyone know if they have to be consecutive seasons? Or, hypothetically, could the Twins leave Arcia in AAA all of 2014 and still have 2 option years left in 2015 and 2016?

You have to take into account the other half of the equation though. How many strikes got called balls? The differential is the important part. That number is not nearly as large. For instance Yadier Molina's NET strike's called is 3 for the entire season so far. That's 3 more strike's than should have been called through 45 Innings.

Nope, that's what they call sabermetrics.

Tough to win @Rochester when you trot out a lineup that only has 2 players hitting >.200. Not going to win a lot of ball games that way.

The mental image of that just sent me into a fit of laughter...oh good lord that was funny.

Walking over to the disabled list check-in line?

Why would you ever throw Mauer anything other than a strike on pitch 1? Obviously the Angels have never heard of Sabermetrics either!

No because the Twins are going to score 3 more to bust this thing wide open!

Doesn't matter if you strike out the side!

He's sick.

Do they move Plouffe to LF and Escobar to 3rd?

Yeah he seemed to have no idea what he was talking about. He just kind of rambled. "They say that if Trout can keep up his statistics from last year he'll be ah...he'll be the next Mickey Mantle." So there you go...sabermetrics are the things that tell you Mike Trout is a really good baseball player.

Hahaha....I really need to stop trying to post at 4am. Sorry about the link! Fixed it now.

FOX Sport's Ken Rosenthal pen's a few nice things about Alex Meyer. Among his tidbits is a quote from a scout: Rosenthal in all writes a paragraph or seven on Meyer's repertoire, how the Twins should handle him and a quote or two from Terry Ryan. The Meyer section is a little over halfway through the article. Rosenthal also opines on the Liriano-Escobar-Hernandez trade from last season near the bottom. Los Angeles Angels deal with Arte Moreno's decisions - MLB News | FOX Sports on MSN

Madre Dos lives in Elizabethton and is a host for the players during the season I believe. I don't know if Arcia lived with her or not but clearly she knows him.

I guess I misunderstood then. I agree that the international signings were non existant in the pre-2001 data was very surprising. I think the biggest thing that I've taken away from this whole exercise is that elite Aces are only found in the 1st round. Fringe Aces (for lack of a better term) can be found going into the second round but after that it is almost impossible to find an Ace. Where as some elite hitters can be found later in the draft. I think it would be interesting to break down the hitters by position. I wonder if it is harder to find elite SS's and CF's late in the draft too.

There is almost no difference between 8 and 25 players. They are both ridiculously SSS. The difference is I acknowledge mine is SSS and you keep saying your 25 is conclusive. The only way you are going to get rid of SSS is if you expand the search parameters to include many more seasons. I don't think that really helps us though because so much has changed in the 15 years let alone the last 50. Is draft data from the 1970's really relevant to today's game? You and I have a different definition of Ace. That's OK. I have explained myself several times. I'm not sure why you keep poking this with a stick. When it comes to the draft I'm not sure if the Twins should draft a pitcher at 4 or not. That is why I was looking into the numbers behind previous drafts. If they do draft a pitcher I don't care if he comes from the college ranks or high school so long as there is considerable upside. If that means a HS pitcher at 4 I have no problems with that. Lincecum (taken 10th) and Weaver (12th) were taken later in the first round so it isn't like you can't get college pitchers that turn into Aces at the 4th spot.

As I've said previously it doesn't matter where an Ace is drafted (or signed internationally) historically. If you're an Ace level pitcher you move through the system at the same pace whether you're drafted 1st overall or in the 8th round. Hell, Saberhagen was drafted in the 19th round and is the youngest pitcher in the last 30 years to be ranked at least one time in the top 10 in ERA for a season. Your "25 aces" group splits the same way as my data, just not quite as extreme, with a pre-2001 post-2001 acquisition date. Only Josh Johnson and Lester were drafted outside of the 1st round in your group. I don't know if I believe post-2001 is SSS or not but I do think the many reasons brought up by Badsmerf could explain why we're seeing a split in the data. So much has changed since the mid-90's in how players are evaluated. I'm not willing to flat out rule that out. If that is true then it needs to be reflected in draft strategies.

I have thought about this for a week now and as much as I wanted to agree with you Smerf I just can't. I don't see anything in that data saying elite hitters getting drafted in the 1st round are succeeding more often than pre-2001 levels. What I do see is that some of the fringe seasons that came out of later rounds are instead going to international signees. However, it also appears that elite hitting talent, while still most prevalent in the first round, can be found in the later rounds. This is different from elite pitching talent. Even if I expand my data to include all 19 pitchers that have placed on a top 10 list at least one time and were acquired after 2001 only 3 of them were drafted outside of the first 2 rounds, Jaime Garcia, Josh Johnson and Doug Fister.

Yeah, I thought this was so above and beyond the usual depressing nature of the Twins that I didn't want to drag down the Fun With Numbers thread. I was worried the resulting contamination of this epic stat might have shut the whole thread down.

I have tried to write this response a couple of times now and each time it comes out wordy and clunky not really getting at my point very well. So please try your best to understand my underlying points. Obviously if Oswaldo goes back down after 3 days he will not accrue a full year of service time in 2013 regardless of how the rest of this year plays out. That seems to be what you think I'm arguing....which I'm not. I thought I had read somewhere, probably during the Hicks service time debate on a website I can no longer find, that you could only accrue one season of partial service time. In other words if Arcia was on the roster for only 140 days this year he would still have the full 6 years of service time available (this part is obviously true.) However I think this website stated you could only do this for 1 season and that there after (so starting in 2014 in this Arcia example) he would be charged with a full season of service time regardless of whether he reached the magical 172 (or whatever the magic number is) games. So my worry, and argument, is that Arcia comes up and starts his clock. He returns to AAA. Get's injured like Benson. He burns his 1 year of partial service time playing only 3 games that could have gone to a bench player. Then in 2014 he is not ready to go to start the year, whether because he is still rehabbing or is just rusty, and doesn't get called up until let's say July. If my memory is correct he would still get charged a full year of service time. So instead of almost 7 years of pre-FA control he would instead end up with 5.5 years or so. So like I said I understand that his service clock stops when he is sent back down this year. I understand that as long as he goes back down he will not accrue a full year of service time. It's next year that I have a problem with. Of course I can't find that website now to double check my memory so.....

+1 I also would like to thank Madre Dos for her interesting peeks into the players personalities and lives! It is certainly a unique viewpoint that you share and is appreciated.

This just in from ESPN's stats dept.