Oxtung

If the Twins are clearly smarter than the Pirates and the Royals then why aren't they smarter than the Cubs and the Mets? That seems pretty hypocritical to me.

They are simply going by WAR provided at the position. It shouldn't be surprising that catcher is a strength and Florimon's defensive abilities rank him in the top 10 for WAR this season at SS.

Sure, but not the reason you were alluding to. First you need a copious amount of payroll space which is pretty rare. Second, you have to be a bad team looking to move the player. Third, teams looking to take on big payrolls are those looking to win now that have no payroll flexibility in the present so they end up back loading contracts playing for today and letting the chips fall where they may in the future. Fourth, millionaires and billionaires are a conservative lot by nature and front loading a contract is risky. There are probably others I haven't thought of but these are off the top of my head.

Beresford won't be protected. He has posted an OPS > .700 only 1 time in his career and that was in 2010 at A ball. At best he projects as a utility infielder. The Twins have plenty of those. I think AJ Achter will get added much like Tonkin was last season. I don't know anything about Achter's "stuff" but his stats are very similar to Tonkin's.

I'm not going to be drawn into an argument with you, going around and around about the details of one potential signing. The front loading concept is the important point.

What he signs for was not the point. Figure whatever amount you feel necessary then apply the frontloading to that contract. It is going to look pretty good a year or two down the line.

How about this for outside the box. The Twins could sign Cano, assuming he doesn't sign an extension, or Josh Johnson, assuming he comes back to form in the second half of the season. They could very heavily front load the contract. So, just spitballing here, if the contract is 7 years $120M, the Twins have enough payroll flexibility to pay $50-80M that very first season. So during the 2014-15 offseason, hopefully just when Rosario or Polanco or May or Meyer are ready to take over at 2nd base/Pitcher, Sano/Johnson is now essentially signed for 6 years and $60 million. That is one heck of a trade chip if you ask me. How much is a cheap star player signed long term worth in prospects?

Do you think the Twins would go to an all righty rotation? My guess is Diamond will be blocking Hernandez, Logan Darnell and Andrew Albers and that Meyer and Mays would replace a righty from the rotation.

A ball position players are not the same as relief pitchers. You can't just stash them on the bench and only play them in blow outs. Bench players have to play. There just aren't enough bench spots to sit one. It's probably a moot point though as Minnesota will have room on their 40 man if they want.

What evidence to support that do you have?

I wonder if the Twins will end up moving Wimmers to a relief role when he comes back. He's only pitched 45ish innings in the last 3 years combined. How long would it take to build his arm back up to a starting role? I imagine several years. He is already 24. A relief role could put him on track for a late 2014 call up. He could always try to transition back to a starting role during the 2014-2015 offseason after his arm has gotten a season of use.

In the last 5 years there have been 9 position players drafted from AA and none played in the majors the following year. There have been 2 position players drafted from A ball. One was returned. Everth Cabrera stuck with the Padres for the whole season as their starting SS (he subsequently has been terrible until resurfacing again this year). So there you have it. One player drafted below AAA has stuck. I don't think it's very likely that we have to worry about Polanco or Kepler. Especially if they don't make it to Fort Meyers this year.

A few more that might get added depending on the rest of this year: Candido Pimentel Angel Morales Manuel Soliman Tom Stuifbergen I don't really think either Polanco or Kepler need to be protected this year from the major league portion of the draft, assuming of course neither make it to Fort Meyers until late this year. I have a hard time believing a team would take a player from low A ball and carry him on the MLB 25 man for a full season. However if they keep hitting next season they will for sure have to go on the 40 man. I do believe the Twins will need to protect Achter and Vargas this year. I think depending on how the rest of this season plays out Morales, Romero, Darnell, Albers, Stuifbergen, O'Rourke and Hauser all could need protecting. In addition Meyer, Rosario, Sano and Zach Jones are all likely to need a 40 man spot at some point during next season. The list for November 2014 includes Meyer, Rosario, Sano, Corey WIlliams, Cole Johnson, Tyler Jones, Niko Goodrum, Aderlin Mejia, Matt Summers, JD Williams, Brett Lee, Madison Boer, Matt Koch, AJ Pettersen, Levi Michael, Jason WHeeler and Matt Tomshaw. Now clearly not all of those players will have to be added but they are the ones I think of the best chances of being added. November 2015 includes Zach Jones, Adam Walker, Mason Melotakis, DJ Baxendale, Tyler Duffey, Taylor Rogers, Travis Harrison, Hudson Boyd, Javier Pimentel. Players that will need to be added from 2016 on include Byron Buxton, Cole Stewart, Amaurys Minier and Jose Berrios. Players are listed when they will become rule 5 eligilbe however, many players will probably be added before required because they are ready to contribute, see Meyer, Sano, Rosario, et al. Also I didn't list many players past 2014 because it is hard to know who will pan out when the players are so far away. You could literally list almost every player in the DSL, GCL and Elizabethton at this point and make a case for inclusion so I just listed the big names.

May vs. Meyer It depends on what stats the [insert people who chose team here] were looking at to make their decisions. May does have a better ERA and more IP as well as a better record at 6-4. Those carry a lot of weight with some people.

Over the next three seasons the Twins are going to start playing a lot of rookies. We should see at least 6 next season in some role with another 5+ the following season. While some rookies thrive immediately, for every Arcia there are a couple Hicks and Hendriks and Florimons. With that many rookies I don't see how the Twins can be competitive next season. IMO things are going to get worse before they get better.

The Dodgers have had winnings seasons in 11 of the last 13 seasons and either won or finished second in their division 7 of those seasons so they have been highly competitive for a long time. Oakland has had 4 losing seasons in their last 6 and Pittsburgh hasn't sniffed .500 in 20 years. Fans don't return at the drop of a hat when they're beat down for years at a time. They have found other things to do with their money and time.

That is an interesting proposition. I don't know much about him but his numbers are very May-esque. High-K's, Low hits but a lot of walks. The problem with moving Morneau is that most of the public won't understand the move, especially when you're getting little in return. So the question, from the Twins perspective, seems to be is a failed prospect, or any other crappy return, worth the public relations hit they're going to take with many fans? While moving Morneau might not in itself turn many fans off they have also moved Cuddy, Kubel, Liriano, Span, Revere and Baker. At some point the average fans will lose their attachment to the Twins before the prospects have developed enough to become fan favorites. I don't know where that point is. I don't know if we're close. But it is there somewhere and we have been turning over the roster quickly, even if it is not quick enough for some of our tastes it is too quickly for some average fans. My Grandma just mutters in disgust at the TV now because she doesn't recognize many of the players. It's a fine line the Twins must walk between acquiring the necessary talent to improve and providing an incentive for large segments of the fan base to keep buying tickets and concessions.

Now wouldn't that be a bump in prestige! Unfortunately my friend is only a "lowly" statistics Professor at a top 15 school with a background in computer modelling. He probably doesn't quite have the name cache of Silver.

That said if the Phillies are looking for a pure salary dump it sure would be fun to watch him pitch here for half a season. Who knows, perhaps he could provide a little magic!

Was Buxton misplaced last year in the top 30? Talent is talent, no matter if it is facing high school or AAA opponents.

I don't see how. Over the next season we're going to start breaking in a whole bunch of rookies. Meyer, May, Sano, Rosario, Pinto, Santana, Tonkin, Achter should all get looks next year with other possibilities being Baxendale, Danny Ortiz, Cole Johnson, Angel Morales, James Beresford, Logan Darnell, Andrew Albers, Duffey, Wimmers, Vargas, Mejia, Eades, Zach and Tyler Jones. That doesn't even include Hicks, Arcia and Gibson from this year. That is just WAAAAAY to many rookies getting playing time to hope we'll be competitive. What we see this year is just the tip of the proverbial iceberg. Next year begins the real transfer of power.

Halladay's option is a vesting option that he won't reach. Can you "pick up" an option like that?

If this were ever to be considered I know of a candidate I think would be a good fit. If you were to have some kind of application process I think you'd find there are many worthy candidates.

Awesome, thanks!

Did you run Willingham vs. Mauer through Markov? I'm not sure who was more valuable that's why I posted it.