Oxtung

Meyer's future is a known regardless of how the next 2 months go. He will be added to the 40 man and then be given a chance to compete for a rotation spot, if not next spring, next year at some point. That is going to happen whether he gets 50 innings or zero innings in the majors this year. On the other hand there is a long list of players that need to be evaluated for 40 man spots this off season or lose them. So by adding Meyer to the 40 man to pitch in a role he has never been in his entire life, that will make absolutely no difference to his future, instead of a player that has legitimate questions about next season is not "nothing" or a "red herring". There are very real reasons not to add him to the 40 man until after the season.

I understand this has little to do with your point Doc but I've seen this a lot and felt I need to throw this out there for the community. We as fans need to get away from thinking that height has any influence on ground ball rates. The statistical evidence shows that there is no correlation.

If the Twins think Santana has any shot at SS he should be playing there as it is the hardest position to field. If they have determined that isn't his future than keeping him in CF is fine. They need to have a plan for his development that doesn't include trying to straddle a fence but not ever committing. How CF or even SS plays out for the rest of this season is irrelevant except where in it pertains to next season. Every move at this point should be looking to improving the future. People keep bringing up Span as a one year stop gap at CF for next season but that isn't going to happen. The guy is crushing it. He is going to have his option picked up by the Nationals. Even if he was a FA he would easily get a multi year deal.

It also reminds me of that fangraphs article from last year about "proven closers" and how long their "elite" status lasts. Let's hope he is the exception not the rule.

I think that statistics should be used as a guide to what's wrong, or right, in what you're doing. Once you've identified the problem you can use other tools, like video analysis or pitch f/x, to determine what specifically you need to change. However the statistics are the smoking gun that something needs to change; or doesn't depending on what they say. I actually think Perkins shows you how he uses it in this article. First, look at FIP. His is at 1.82 which is significantly below his ERA. So why is that? Is that just random fluctuation, is it his defense, is it something he needs to change? Dive deeper, we see his babip is at .330. Why is that elevated? Look at his batted ball profile and we see that his LD% is slightly raised from career norms. He's getting squared up more often than he has in the past. Now he can look at more specific stats to determine when exactly that is happening. What count are batters teeing off on? Now you can go look at the pitch data from that specific count to determine which pitches are getting hammered. Now you know specifically which pitch is struggling. Now you can go to the video analysis, combined with the pitch f/x data, to determine what exactly you need to tweak to improve. I think that the statistics are the smoking gun that show something needs to change, or not. After that they lead to what needs to be fixed. They can't actually do the fixing themselves but they can tell you after the fact if your adjustments were successful.

I don't think giving Meyer 15-20 innings out of the bullpen is worth it this season. It will answer nothing about him and give him very little actual experience. On the flip side you have to add him to the 40 man and potentially burn an option year if something goes wrong. It also takes 20 innings away from evaluating the three trillion actual relievers that the Twins need to make decisions on this off season. IMO if Meyer doesn't go to the rotation then let him finish out the season in AAA. May otoh really should already be up. This is his second option year already. He has been an absolute workhorse in the minors so there shouldn't be any concerns there.

Given his MiLB track record, current bb/k rates and his babip above .400 he is ripe for regression. Is he exciting right now? Yes, no doubt. Is he likely to continue this level of hitting ability? Unlikely. Are we as fans getting ahead of ourselves by pencilling him in as a long term starter at SS or CF after 200 ab's? Definitely. But lucky or not he is a reason to watch the games right now which more than can be said for most of the rest of the team currently.

Unless he can improve his K/BB rates he will always be a fringe player hanging on because of his defense and speed. The fact that those numbers track his minor league numbers so closely is not a good thing. Speed and defense can only do so much if you can't hit. Your point about nothing behind him in the minors is valid. I wouldn't be surprised if we keep a rotation of SS's for the next several years between Santana, Escobar, players claimed from other teams, veteran journeymen, etc...

I don't think Santana's future is in the OF but I don't think he's the SS of the future either. At least not the long term future. He is currently riding a BABIP of .396. His K% is 23; his BB% is 4.6. That BABIP is going to come back to earth at some point and those plate discipline numbers track his uninspiring minor league rates. I think it is very unclear whether Santana is even on the 25 man roster in Sept of 2015.

Next season the Twins will have: Nolasco- 32 Hughes- 29 Gibson- 27 Meyer- 25 May- 25 Pelfrey- 31 At AAA: Sean Gilmartin- 25 Logan Darnell- 26 and some combination of: Taylor Rogers- 24 Tyler Duffey- 24 Jason Wheeler- 24 DJ Baxendale- 24 JO Berrios- 21 Return in a trade MiLB FA MLB FA Pino- 31 Johnson-30 I think it's a pretty safe bet one or both are DFA'd this winter. They are what they are, two old journeymen pitchers. Those aren't exactly hard to come by.

I started to go through my own list. Man this is hard. I ended up with >40 guys who I thought could/should be there. The bullpen is especially hard to figure out. The Twins have basically 4 different types of players to consider; current regulars, prospects, 40 man/rule 5 questions, and rewarding minor league veterans. The regulars are pretty obvious and so I won't go through those as are the the prospects. 40 man/rule 5 questions: Pedro Florimon James Beresford Diebinson Romero Chris Herrmann Eddie Rosario Levi Michael Kris Johnson Logan Darnell Johan Pino Sean Gilmartin Mark Hamburger Michael Tonkin Stephen Pryor Lester Oliveros AJ Achter Aaron Thompson Deolis Guerra Cole Johnson Ryan O'Rourke Alex Wimmers Rewards: Doug Bernier Deibinson Romero Wilkin Ramirez Eric Farris Miguel Sano and Alex Meyer will both require 40 man spots this off season. A lot of tough decisions are going to have to be made. I think this off season Colabello, Florimon, Herrmann, Fryer, and one or two of Pino, Darnell, Johnson, Gilmartin and a bunch of bullpen pieces are in trouble. There are just too many people needing 40 man spots. I also fully expect a trade or two of our prospects; Hicks or Rosario wouldn't surprise me at all. It will be interesting to see what the Twins do with their veterans that probably won't be back next season. Presumably Willingham will go somewhere on waivers. I also wonder if one or two of Escobar, Florimon, Nunez get traded still. With Danny Santana, James Beresford and Jorge Polanco all nearly ready that is a lot of middle infielders. Burton, Correia, Swarzak, Deduno, Duensing, and Colabello are all expendable at this point. Good post. Lots of interesting decisions to be made.

I've long thought Wimmers route to the majors was in the pen. It just takes too much time to build up the arm strength required to be a starter when you haven't pitched in three years. He seems to be excelling in the pen as well. Like you I hope he makes it. His story is every bit as good as colabellos or thielbars, IMO.

Colby Rasmus is interesting at only 28 years old but his K% has been steadily climbing. 18% in 2009 to 32.5% this season. That is a big red flag IMO.

I don't think Santana is a given for starting anywhere next year. His minor league history says he will be a fringy hitter with bad plate discipline. 200 PA's don't change his expectations. I think it's likely he craters at some point in the next few weeks.

There have been many established pitchers the Twins have brought in. You are right that Hughes' K/9 is up (7.7 vs 7.6) and so was Pelfrey's (5.7 vs. 5.2). On the other hand these pitchers have all lowered their strikeouts rate: Nolasco, Correia, Worley, Jason Marquis, Carl Pavano, Livan Hernandez and Ramon Ortiz. I stand by my comment.

Another trade that wasn't reported here is the Miami-Houston trade. Jarred Cosart (plus 2 minor leaguers) to Miami for Colin Moran (6th overall in 2013 draft; 3B) and Jake Marisnick (decent OF prospect) and rookie ball flyer. Would you have traded Gibson, Parmelee/Colabello and Nunez for Moran and Marisnick? I think I would have pulled that trigger. Gibson is walking a very thin tightrope currently and while he has potential to improve Marisnick would slot immediately into CF slot next to Arcia and Moran has All Star potential.

I think what the Twins do in the next week or two will determine how this trade seasons gets graded. If they move Correia/Willingham/bullpen arms then it will have been a good "haul". If they simply cut bait with some of them that's fine too. As long as May and some of the AAA bullpen arms are up in the next week I'm ok with the rest.

You're right we can't know for sure but the fact that he has been significantly below average during his 9 year career and that he's coming off an injury all point to a pretty poor 2015 for Mr. Pelfrey.

Smyly is a better pitcher than Milone who was helped a lot by playing in Oaklands ginormous stadium. Franklin is very highly thought of its just that he was blocked in Seattle when they signed Cano. That said I agree that, even with the Aball SS, the Rays could have done better. If this was the best available wait until the off season. My point was the Twins could have fairly easily matched this offer (or even improved upon it) and had exclusive negotiating rights with one of the premier pitchers in the majors for a year. If something couldn't be worked out there were also respectable fall back positions. There is a lot of potential in the Twins system but a rotation next year of: Price Meyer May Gibson/Nolasco/Hughes seems VERY attractive to me. Depending on how Meyer and May adapt that could be pretty formidable as well. There's a chance that's enough to put the Twins in the playoff picture. If the Twins are in contention you probably see Buxton and Sano up sooner than later as well next season.

Seems to me that resigning Suzuki for 2 + years means the end of Pinto's catching career or the end of his Twins career.

Thinking about the Price deal....would people have been interested in the Twins sending a package to the Rays for Price? They would have had plenty of time to work out an extension. If that wouldn't be possible he might push us into conention next season or if not he'd be a great chip next deadline too. At the very least you extend the qualifying offer in 2016. The Smyly & Franklin package (assuming there aren't more pieces involved) isn't that much for a player of Prices' caliber. Perhaps Berrios, Polanco and one of our A-ball/rookie pitchers? I'm not sure where I stand on that package myself....

Mis-reported originally on mlbtraderumors. When I refreshed again they switched it to Smyly to Rays.

Has to be more to this trade though....Franklin isn't enough by himself. Even if Smyly goes to Tampa that probably isn't enough.

Austin Jackson and Smyly to Mariners with Franklin going to Rays as pieces of the puzzle.

This should be interesting..... They didn't have much minor league talent to begin with. Now they've gutted whatever they had it seems.