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Oxtung

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Everything posted by Oxtung

  1. Oxtung
    This is OT but can you point me towards the stats/article to back this up? If you have a bad bullpen then they are giving up a bunch of runs which would be accounted for in the Pythagorean rankings.
  2. Oxtung
    I think everyone can agree that would be awesome (well except maybe the Chief)!
  3. Oxtung
    I'm with WillihMmer. His k rate continues to increase as he ages and his BABIP can't compensate enough. I think he's on the downward arc of his career. An OPS around .740.
  4. Oxtung
    Another worry I have is that Boyer and/or Stauffer are mediocre or show signs of unsustainably low ERA's but Ryan decides to extend them partway through the year a la Burton, Pelfrey, Suzuki, Doumit, et al...
  5. Oxtung
    Who cares if May isn't stretched out completely? Have Pelfrey/Milone piggy back on his starts to begin the season. So instead of starting a guy for 100 pitches than brining a guy in for 40 just reverse it. Start the guy for 40 and then bring Pelf in for 100. Be "creative". For the "just wait until later in the year," crowd, isn't that what we did last season? How is that helping us now? Instead of figuring out if May and Meyer can handle the workload we have now been forced to punt that down the road and bring in 2 new outside starters in Santana and Milone because we aren't sure what May and Meyer can do. If they never give the youngsters more than 10 starts how will the Twins ever know? It's not like people are arguing to toss Berrios or Stewart out there.
  6. Oxtung
    I'm fine with Hicks going down but don't get Milone. Other than being left handed, what does he bring to the table? This is just me but I'd rather bring north the guy who doesn't get into jams rather than the one who has to consistently battle to get out of them. But that's just me I'm sure....
  7. Oxtung
    I could live with the 30 something's getting the innings if I truly believed they were brought in purely as stop gaps until our best relieving prospects are ready. If the Twins have given up on Tonkin, Achter, Pressly so be it. If the plan is to bridge the gap to Burdi, Reed, Melotakis, Chargois, Z. Jones, T. Jones (Yes I realize that a few of those guys are hurt but they seem to represent the best of The Twins prospects), I could accept that. This organization is in love with mediocre hard working veterans, and while there is nothing wrong with some vets on the pitching staff, there is something wrong when the vast majority of the staff is past their prime. This is a rebuilding team after all. So I think my main problem here is that this is a reoccurring theme (yes there are a few counter examples like Gibson and Hicks) and I see no reason to expect that cycle to change. Does anybody think next year will be any different than this year?
  8. Oxtung
    For those looking to trade the 5th starter roulette loser(s), what are you hoping to get back? IMO the return would be ... Underwhelming. The Twins picked Milone up last year for a 4th OF and Pelfrey has pitched 1 year of the last 3 (and wasn't a good starter to begin with). I think bringing either Stauffer or Boyer north would be a mistake. Neither contribute anything to the future and for a rebuilding club like the Twins that's what matters. I'd rather they had traded for a young failed starter and moved him to the pen hoping he could revive his career... or gone with some of their young fireballers that might not be completely ready... or signed a really good reliever. Pretty much I would have gone any direction other than bringing north a group of low strike-out, low upside, 30-something's. Ugh....
  9. Oxtung
    While the excitement in this thread might be warranted in the long run, this article talks only about using Perk in one specific non-save high leverage situation. Now this might just be the first step in a change of philosophy, but there is clearly skepticism in the organization of an overall change in approach. Ryan is quoted as being against using Perkins in other situations and it is stated that Molitor agrees. So long term perhaps this is the first step but right now it is just that. One step.
  10. Oxtung
    Ops+ Nunez 86 Punto 76 Reboulet 72 Hocking 69 Newman 58 You make some good points. I guess everybody has their own trade offs between offense and defense.
  11. Oxtung
    The "look at all the teams with low payrolls winning!" and "high payroll doesn't guarantee any wins" arguments are strawmen. Nobody is arguing against those assertions. The relevant points being made are first, payroll is correlated with winning. The more you spend the better your chance of winning. Second, the Twins are on record stating that ~50% of revenue will go toward player payroll. Based on the Twins actions this seems to have come with a caveat, it only applies during expected winning seasons. Third, the tax payers of Minneapolis and the fans buying tickets are paying good money and rightfully have expectations that a competitive team will be fielded. When the Twins fail to provide a good product and fail to address these issues, or even worse ignore or dismiss them, it should be expected that there will be backlash. No amount of strawmen, poo pooing, or ignoring is going to fix this issue. The solutions are to fix the product or address your customer experience issue.
  12. Oxtung
    Finally getting back to this. Let me reiterate that Ryan deserves credit for making good decisions on who he has drafted and who he has traded for but almost all those players can be linked directly to the Twins being terrible. Here is the breakdown of the Twins players and prospects (from Baseball America) under the age of 25. Bill Smith players Kyle Gibson Danny Santana Aaron Hicks Kennys Vargas Miguel Sano Eddie Rosario Jorge Polanco Trades because Twins are bad Trevor May Alex Meyer Eduardo Escobar High draft picks because Twins are bad Byron Buxton Kohl Stewart Nick Gordon International FA's Josmil Pinto Oswaldo Arcia Lewis Thorpe Not top draft picks JO Berrios Once you take players and prospects Smith acquired and talent due to the Twins being terrible out of the equation you're left with a catcher that can't catch. An outfielder that can't field. An 18 year old pitcher with 70 innings at A-ball and Berrios, who admittedly is looking like a stud. To be fair, Berrios was also a 1st round pick, so it's not exactly uncovering a hidden gem. So again, Ryan deserves credit for hitting on his high draft picks, but he hasn't exactly done anything creative to bring talent to this organization. If the Twins hire almost any GM instead of bringing Ryan back the young talent would look pretty much the same. I guess I just don't believe that Ryan should get much applause for making basic moves that almost any other GM would make as well.
  13. Oxtung
    Can we move past the "Ryan has restocked the system" meme? I don't have time right now to run down the list but almost every prospect the Twins have is there because of one a couple different reasons. First, many are guys Smith drafted/signed. Second, the Twins have been terrible and so have had top 5 draft picks. Third, the Twins have been bad so the Twins could trade their few good players for prospects. While Ryan should be given credit for not screwing up his opportunities lets not go overboard. He hasn't done anything that every other GM hasn't/wouldn't do. Unless you live in Philadelphia.
  14. Oxtung
    I think everyone agrees with that as a general philosophy. Unfortunately that isn't the reality we live in. The Twins haven't developed an Ace since Santana. So their choice is either pay for one or don't have one.
  15. Oxtung
    There seem to be 4 options. First, sign an ace now, helping the twins compete in 2015 and then hope he's good later in deal. Either way the deal ends early enough the twins can still retain Buxton and Sano, assuming they deserve it, at that point. Second, they can wait a couple of years until the twins are "ready" to sign an ace helping them compete a few years down the road. They still have to hope he's good at the end of that contract. However, they can't afford to resign both Sano and Buxton. So one gets traded or goes in free agency. Third, they could choose to trade minor league assets to obtain an ace like the royals did with Shields. Since said asset will only have a year or two left on his contract resigning Sano and Buxton won't be a problem but they are leveraging their future. Fourth, the Twins could decide to never go after an ace because the risk is just too great. They then could sign second tier pitchers like garza, lohse, Santana or Jimenez. Or they could just choose to fill the rotation from internal candidates. There is no perfect solution. There are risks with each approach.
  16. Oxtung
    It doesn't matter how much money the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers or anyone else has to throw around. They aren't going to pay a guy $50 million per year or even $30 million per year. As long as the Twins have ~$25 million per year for the next 6-7 years available they can go get their guy, from a financial perspective at least. It just comes down to this, is Ryan willing to bet big and push the contract to a state that the Yankees, Red Sox, et al feel uncomfortable or unwilling to go. Currently the Twins are on the books for about ~$83 million dollars next season (assuming he keeps the Arbitration guys). Will Ryan feel comfortable pushing the payroll towards $110 million? I doubt it but I don't know.
  17. Oxtung
    That's the beauty of it. If they signed a top pitcher now that contract would be coming off the books just as Sano, Meyer, Buxton, Berrios, etc... hit free agency. And bonus, if they front loaded that contract there might be money to bring another FA into the fold years from now. On the other hand if they wait any longer to sign a big contract there will be some tough decisions to make down the road.
  18. Oxtung
    Yeah I agree. I think a lot of assumptions are being made that these guys will come back roaring. Given Buxtons brain injury, and the Twins history with mauer, Morneau, span, I think it is entirely possible things move much slower and we don't see them until the end of the season if at all next year.
  19. Oxtung
    For those who are set to roll with Gibson, Hughes, and Nolasco what ERA or ERA+ or Fip or xFip, whatever you're most comfortable with, do you think is a reasonable expectation next season for these players?
  20. Oxtung
    I'm not sure what to tell you. I show you an instance where it has already been done and you still say it won't happen.
  21. Oxtung
    It's already being done. I found 4 big contracts last season that were front loaded in a quick search. See David wrights deal. Other than the twins feelings on the subject there is no reason they couldn't front load a big signings contract.
  22. Oxtung
    By ERA he is 8% better than average. If you want to argue bad luck after looking at his peripherals I won't argue. On the other hand how confident are you that he'll walk less than a batter per game next season? To answer the question at hand I'd like to see the twins add a front line starter. If that is too much to ask I'd like them to add a good outfielder but I don't want his contract to impact potentially signing a future ace next season. Whoever they sign they should use their payroll flexibility to either front load the contract, overpay for less seasons, or rework Mauers contract so he costs less in the out years. What I don't want is paying some marginal player for multiple years there by locking up a mediocre talent and a roster spot for little upside.
  23. Oxtung
    Hughes and Gibson have been about average so I'm not sure where "good" comes from and certainly can't see the "excellent". While it's possible his injury is to blame Nolasco is turning 32 next season. It's entirely possible that we are currently seeing the future as his body continues to age. Either way his career norms are as a below average pitcher..... To me 3 averagish pitchers does not make a great starting point to build a staff around. Perhaps Meyer can be the ace we all hope but I would sure feel much better about the future if they inked a legit top of the rotation arm. That would be a true signal they are confident in the future coming sooner than later and they are going to do what it takes to win. As I showed in my other posts, if you want to contend for the playoffs (let alone a championship) you had better have 2 stud pitchers and 4 average or better. Currently we have the average but where are the studs? Go, Go Gadget Terry Ryan!
  24. Oxtung
    Or the Twins could sign Melky Cabrera and front load the contract, since they'll be way under budget next season, then he won't be a weight around the Twins towards the end of that contract and he still might be movable. There are options other than "don't sign expensive FA's".
  25. Oxtung
    I looked following Hicks' 2013 season at hitters that were similar in production and plate appearances and the list wasn't pretty. As in he was epically bad. As in he had one of the 100 worst rookie seasons since 1960. When you look at the rest of the list none of them made it. None. I haven't looked at where he would be on a list given his current statistics but he has been flat out awful for 2 seasons. I'm of the opinion that he is not and will never be a major league caliber player. Given that I would trade him in a heart beat if there was anything in return. You list the 2000's as a reason to keep him but the 2000's core also had an ace in Santana and a very good #2 in Radke. Tell me who fits that roll for next season? Perhaps Meyer, but that's expecting a lot, IMO. YMMV of course.
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