It seems we have a fundamental difference in how we view Kyle Gibson's future, and probably current, capabilities. The data shows that pitchers begin to enter their decline phase (albeit a slow decline initially) in their early to mid 20's. By 32 their velocity and k-rate decrease while they're LD and FB percentages increase. On top of that there are very real injury concerns here. Set aside for a moment that he's already had one TJ surgery and what that means for a potential second surgery and instead focus on just the natural injury risk associated with pitchers. We are currently seeing that with Nolasco, Hughes and Perkins. Kyle Gibson is not the type of player that is going to break the bank. He is a low strike out ground ball pitcher and that skill set just doesn't get paid very much. Extending him just to save 5 or 10 million dollars over the next 4 or 5 years will have no impact on the Twins ability to sign future FA's or extend other deserving players. It will however lock the Twins into paying him regardless of any injury or decline that does happen. It also cements his spot in the rotation barring multiple terrible years like Nolasco. Perhaps Gibson improves over the next few years. Perhaps he can remain healthy. As a fan I certainly want to believe those things, however the statistics show those are less likely outcomes.