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cHawk

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Everything posted by cHawk

  1. cHawk
    If you don't think a nucleus of Buxton, Sano, Berrios, Kepler, Rosario, Garver, Polanco etc was a nice situation to build around, I don't know what to tell you. It seemed like a pretty good place to be. Certainly a lot better than our current situation. Maybe, but half of those guys have been regressing mightily in their primes. All of them except Berrios have failed spectacularly in big games. Something tells me they were fools gold. Half of them have been bad since the 2019 playoffs. We weren't winning that series even if we addressed our rotation at the deadline. It may have seemed like a good place to be at the time, it's not looking like that rn. How do you know the situation we're in is horrible? Do you predict we're going to see Kirilloff, Larnach, Duran, Balazovic, Celestino, Gordon etc regress in their primes as well?
  2. cHawk
    Ober should. Dobnak and Jax should not
  3. cHawk
    The current FO hasn't shown much ability to find top of the rotation starters. Does Duran not count? They had a nucleus of top 100 prospects to build around. The Twins were coming off a total system failure season, with 90+ loss seasons in 5 of the past 6 years. Guys like Kepler, Sano, Polanco, and Rosario weren't "prospects" when they arrived. None of them were that good in the majors (outside of 2019). They are a fault of the previous regime. Outside of those four, Berrios, and Buxton, I don't see what "prospects" you're referring to that weren't in the minors and a few years away. More worrisome, they might not think they have to b/c they might just think baseball will evolve into 4-5 pitchers per game snoozefests. It's not just the Twins that do this. A lot of other teams do it. There's nothing inherently wrong with 4-5 pitchers per game if you do it right. They didn't do it right the past year, the offseason wasn't good, but one bad offseason isn't a fireable offense.
  4. cHawk
    great situation? WHAT? Why is their pitching pipeline "not likely to work out?" This is Year 4 of their development. The pipeline should start to pump this year. What do you see in their development that says that it "won't work out?"
  5. cHawk
    They should extend Berrios and Buxton. As for the pipeline, 2020 was a lost year. So technically this will be Year 4 of development. I’ll give them more time.
  6. cHawk
    My OCD doesn't like MadBum as an example.
  7. cHawk
    Payroll should be higher next year. Hopefully $160M-170M.
  8. cHawk
    That run is looking more and more like a fluke by the day. The Indians haven’t been anywhere close to the WS since then, they’ve even lost 8 straight playoff games.
  9. cHawk
    Cleveland can’t win in the playoffs, though. That’s because they don’t invest anything into their lineup.
  10. cHawk
    I like your idea, but: Donaldson has good qualities but one thing he isn’t is a quality pitcher. Are you saying we should invest nothing into the lineup? Should we not pay for elite/good hitters, instead build it out of scraps, outcasts, and projects? As they say, you get what you pay for, and the Twins would have a crap lineup. It would get exposed badly in big games. We’ll need to put considerable investment into everything if we want to be a true World Series contender. I agree that it should be priority to build a rotation of 4-5 quality starters and bullpen with 3+ studs. Thankfully, we have a farm system, so some of those roles can be filled. We should see Ober and Duran in the rotation next year.
  11. cHawk
    Question: Could we see Edwar Colina in next year’s pen?
  12. cHawk
    I disagree, I would like to see the Twins go after one of the top-end SSs on the market.
  13. cHawk
    Those are areas of criticism. Quite frankly, I agree. Criticizing them and calling them incompetent are two different things with no connection whatsoever. I can see where you’re going with Levine. As for Falvey, let’s see how the next wave of prospects does.
  14. cHawk
    They are responsible for some of the players already on the roster, that's true. But we can't conclude anything about their ability until we see all of Duran, Balazovic, Celestino, Kirilloff, Larnach, Lewis, Jeffers, Ober, Jax, Gordon, Colina, etc. Bottom line, the original statement that the FO is incompetent is flat out ridiculous.
  15. cHawk
    Why? We haven't actually seen any of the prospects that THEY have drafted yet. Because of that, we can't determine their ability to draft and develop players. Why are they a "disaster?" Seems like a massive overreaction to one bad year.
  16. cHawk
    You aren't helping anything.
  17. cHawk
    Maybe it’s blatant tanking, which, who knows, might be the best for this club.
  18. cHawk
    Shoemaker is our Mike Glennon
  19. cHawk
    Could Rocco himself be the problem?
  20. cHawk
    It should be illegal to construct a team as bad as Baltimore — And we just lost to them.
  21. cHawk
    Damn, it’s depressing that we’re discussing this and it’s not even Memorial Day.
  22. cHawk
    Defensive WAR?
  23. cHawk
    Here’s a problem I have with BABIP — BABIP doesn’t account for quality of contact on a ball in play. A .300 BABIP is considered to be league average. However, if the quality of contact is weak 80-90% of the time, you are not going to have a .300 BABIP. You can’t expect to have a .300 BABIP if you can’t actually hit the ball hard. Since 2015, I have organized the league average BABIP on the six levels of quality of contact (according to baseball savant): Poorly (Combines Topped/Under/Weak) - .132 Flare/Burner - .655 Solid Contact - .424 Barrel - .518 How well you hit the ball will clearly make a difference. Donaldson’s BABIP in 2021 is .240, which is well below league average. If you take number of BIP with the weight above: 67 Poorly 19 Flare/Burner 3 Solid Contact 16 Barrel (67*.132 + 19*.655 + 3*.424 + 16*.518)/(67 + 19 + 3 + 16) = .571. There is no way a .571 BABIP is sustainable, but I do think that his BABIP is low based on how he has been hitting the ball.
  24. cHawk
    It’s simple. Make Rogers the closer. Robles, Duffey, Alcala, and Colome the setup guys. Call up Johan Duran sooner rather than later, and add more starter help. Acquire 3 (quality) bullpen arms in July, one of them being a fireball closer. Then, you can release one or two of the original guys who are sucking. How are we going to acquire three arms at the deadline? I mean, I don’t think it’s against the trade rules. Let’s see here... *typing typing typing click* and here we go. Teams are permitted to trade for three bullpen arms at the deadline. Shouldn’t be a problem.
  25. cHawk
    They may be starting to heat up. But let’s not get too excited. The same happened when they won the series against KC, and then they were back to freefalling, losing a home series to the ****ing Rangers. Now they play Baltimore. Maybe they can start winning again. Unfortunately, even if they do end up making it to the playoffs (which would be a miracle at this point), I can’t imagine them winning any games there with how depleted the pitching staff is.
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