beckmt

That is even forgetting Jay, Jorge, and Stewart. It will take the full 2 years to evaluate of the these pitchers. It also doesn't include the relievers. As for none of the FA pitchers will come here, money talks as does a young good lineup. Many players live to win a World Series, I would hope this group takes us there. You will get a good FA pitcher to come here with the lineup talent and money. The question will be if it is the correct pitcher.

He has already been there and done that. You must think players are without feelings or egos. If he gets beat out fine, but Viola in the 80's did stay up and work it out, it worked. He also has more coaches at the major league level than in Rochester. IF he was tipping his pitches, it will be found at the major league level and then, maybe correct it in Rochester. Time is ticking in Minnesota and most of the Twins pitchers do not have Berrios's upside. At Rochester he only has Cliburn and Cliburn has 12 pitchers to help and reports to write, at the major league level he has Guarderro, and Allen plus the catcher coaches. I am worried in the 2 offseasons when the organization has decisions to make, you will not have the data so you will have to guess, and the possible downside is tremendous.

We have all seen the divide in posters here with the comments on which starters should be with the Twins. It is still early or midway in spring training and this article is not so much of that debate, but a question of how the Twins should approach the next 2 years. Starters: Only Santana and Hughes will have contracts into the 2019 season. The best crop of Free Agent pitchers will be on the market after the 2018 season. I feel that the Twins by that time need to know what holes in the rotation need to be filled. Given another article yesterday by Oldgoat_MN that showed the top 8 WAR teams for the starters all made the rotation this is a very vital area. Problem: I do not feel that any of the current starters can average 3 WAR a year, and the Twins at this time do not have an ace to raise the average. There is also the issue of Molitor wanting to be manager and his contract runs out at the end of this year. Solution: If you feel or want to give a number of the younger pitchers(Berrios, Gonsalves, Mejia, May) a chance, see what you can get for any starter but Santana the last week of spring training(clubs with pitching injuries will be looking). If you can get something of reason trade them, if not start the season with them and watch the market. Also give Molitor an extension if you feel this process is not fair to him. Do not agree with this, but you have to cut the cord to solve the problem. Bullpen: Weakest area of the team in my opinion at this time. Expect Kinzler to be the closer with Beilise, Breslow, Rogers, Chaigos, Pressley, Haley to be the rest with one spot TBD. Need to have stability here so do not see many youngsters up to start. By midseason hope performance and trades bring up several of the younger pitchers but this area is murky at best. Problem, No frontline closer, not a great shutdown pen with punchout ability. Solution: Maybe Perkins returns to health and is a factor, maybe Burdi and other of the young bullpen force there way up. See this as more of a season long process unless pen implodes. Catcher: Castro is a given, Garver should start at AAA for atbats. Would prefer Murphy up, with Giminez in AAA if Murphy fails again. Problem Castro is here for 3 years no clear line after. Solution: One of Garver or Murphy is able to step up to become the starter and the kid the Twins drafted last year from Wisconsin is ready a year or two after that. Infield. Current time it is Mauer, Dozier, Polonco, and Sano. 2019 it could be Mauer(at a very reduced price, if at all),otherwise Park or Vargas, Dozier or Polonco if Dozier traded or not resigned, Polonco or Gordon, and Sano(because I do not see a thirdbase replacement in 2 years, with Polonco or TBD as the utility infielder. Problem: Do you resign Dozier, is Gordon the real deal, what to do with Mauer. Solution: Trade Dozier at midseason if you are convinced that Gordon is for real. Tell Mauer at the end of his contract, that Jake cannot be considered for manager if Joe is playing and encourage his retirement. Move Sano to first if Park and Vargas cannot fill the hole. You may have to find a stopgap 3rd base replacement in this line. Maybe Goodrum short term. Outfield: The one area of strength. No problems or solutions here unless either Rosario or Kepler do not pan out. Granite or pickup can be the 4th outfielder for a couple of years. Notes: Short term until about 2020 or 2021 this team should be cheap. Signing pitchers to larger contracts will not be a payroll issue short term. Solution is to go young over the next year, if Molitor does not handle the younger players or does not like this line, fire him(probably should anyway). This gives you the best chance to compete by 2019 and on from there. If you do not give you position players some hope, you will have a issue resigning without overpays, because everyone likes to play on a winner.

I hope they start Gonsalves in the majors or in Rochester. There should be plenty of starters in Chattanooga, Stewart, Jay, Romero, Jorge, Steele, Rosario to start. These guys need regular turns to develop. Romero may start in Ft. Myers due to the logjam in Chattanooga, but that might be a waste of time. For some of these the options clock is ticking and they need to be pushed up as fast as possible. Mauer is supposed to be the best Twins minor league manager, so it will be interesting how this works. Chattanooga hitting will probably be behind, as have not seen the roster of which hitters will be there, expect Hicks, Harrison, Vielma, but do not know the rest at this time. I think all the pitchers except Steele will be on the 40 man after this year(Jay will not have to be and may not). Rosario without a good year looks like a candidate to be dropped. Lots of talent here and they should also have a great bullpen, depending on what is in Rochester but Burdi, Reed and others should make this a very good team.

How has this changed? Just because Berrios has options, he is the odd man out. Does he have anything to learn in AAA. The last 2 times in Rochester, he has just killed it. Some of you believe you can run a ballplayer like a yo-yo and not do them any damage. Do you expect all players will be able to do this. There is something to be said for sending a young pitcher down when they are getting bombed, and there is something to letting grow up at the major league level. I think at least Falvey gets this, I do not know if his hands are tied by the Pohlad's desire to see Molitor succeed. Gonsalves has dominated A+ and AA ball, you need to give him a chance and if he fails then let him do AAA. A lot of the AAA competition is AAAA type players who have been up and down and are looking for another chance. About half of the prospects jump from AA to the bigs. For me the choice is to give the young pitchers a chance, maybe add a year to Molitor's contract(to get Pohlad to look the other way), and force him to try the youngsters. You may sacrifice this year, but in the long run you will be better off.

Glad to his fastball up to 91. Now if he can gain another tick or two, he will be back to where he was. That is good news.

This validates on of the points I have been making. Most teams making the playoffs have starting pitching WAR greater than average. The other two clubs did not make it very far in the playoffs. Pitching matters, Twins need to find out how the youngsters do, will understand if they cannot trade a couple of starters at the end of spring training as you cannot give assets away, but expect they can get a fair transaction at that time and open more spots to the younger pitchers.

Twins at the current time have 12 pitchers for 5 rotation spots. Trading a couple of the veterans at the end of spring training will not hurt. They are blocking the future and you will not find out what you have if the future is in AAA.

Look at it this way, we have Vogelsong and Tempesh at AAA to back the young starters, and I did not say to cut the veterans, I said to shop them and take offers if not lowballs. Sometimes pitchers develop faster in the big leagues, look at the number of college pitchers who are up in about 2 years. I understand Twins need to address Molitor's job security, but that is a separate issue. Do right by the players, worry about the manager later. With this pitching staff I see little chance Molitor is here after this year anyway, unless Pohlad insists and if I am the head of baseball ops or the GM I might walk if the owner is going to meddle.

Most of the playoff teams in my estimation(I do not have the numbers infront of me)would have a starting pitcher WAR of 15 or higher. Kansas City 2015 was built a different way(also a valid way), but Twins are a ways from this model(not saying they could not use it). My point is at the current time Twins are at best a league average staff, and most of it will not be here after 2018. 2018 is a special year in that after the season many of the staff aces will be available in FA.(along with some other very good pitchers). If you do not have your own talent evaluated at the major league level, how are you going to base if you need to buy into this class at the time(you will be buying a fair amount of downside at the end of those 7 year type contracts). I want to hit the window the Twins have at full stride, and you cannot do that if the current pitching staff is 2 years behind at that time. Twins in the mid 80's took this approach and it worked out. You may take more lumps(and get higher draft picks), but you will know what you have at that time. Draft will be important and I am still in Greene's corner, but a college pitcher could step up and get to the point where they could help in the next year or two. Twins need higher level pitching, not the same old same old we are looking to see this year. I would rather suffer with the kids than to go with this expected staff and have a fire sale if it happens(as I expect)they are not good enough. Plus you have a better chance now of getting something for the midlevel starters, than at midseason where some of them will have no value.

Close for me also, not sure of backup catcher and expect Santiago to be in the rotation, with Rogers being the other relief pitcher to start. Also believe Park has a chance of making this team over Stubbs, who I do not see a role for, unless you decide to sit both Rosario and Kepler against lefties.

Great article. Looking forward to more.

My point is this, after the 2018 season there will be the greatest group of upper level starting pitchers available since this system started. If you do not know what you have in the upper levels of the system, how are you going to know what pitching help you need. Twins will still have 2-3 years of not super expensive contracts for their position players, they should be able to compete on signing one or two of those pitchers. The group of Twins youngsters will not know what to work on and Twins FO will not be that sure of what we have if this group of 6-8 starting pitchers do not get sorted out in the next 2 years. Waiting for them in 2018 will turn into waiting for them in 2019 and then if we do not extend the core(who may be tired of losing) we are back to a rebuild. We are a mid level team, not like the 1990's-2000's where you had to catch lightning in a bottle. (All your players being good at the same time). As far as Gibson goes, to say he is going to average 2 WAR with below average infield defense is a stretch, also you may think 2 WAR is fine, but when you have a staff of pitchers around 2 WAR, I do not think 10 WAR is a major league average staff. You need to find pitchers who have a bigger upside. If you want to keep one of the pitchers, I would keep Santiago who seems to have more upside and as a fly ball pitcher, plays into the strength of the Twins defense.

Sliders usually = TJ surgery at some point, makes it more risk.

My starting 5 would be from a group of Santana, Berrios, May, Romero, Gonsalves, Mejia. You start Hughes on the DL if his fastball is not up a couple of ticks. With all the pitchers going down this spring, you should be able to get something for Gibson and Santiago. If you decide to keep Gibson, you had better plan on using a defensive first SS on the days he pitches. Do not dislike Santiago, just think you should get something of value for him, and he will not be here next year. I am looking for solutions for the ongoing pitching issues now instead of later. Others are kicking the can down the road.

You seem to have missed the point. We need to evaluate pitchers now and in 2018. We cannot give older vets who will not be here in 2 seasons starts to get the Twins to mediocre instead of bad or possibly good this year. When 2019 comes you will be in the arbitration years of your best players. Do you want them playing behind at pitching staff with a team ERA of about 4.5 and several pitchers you do not know if they will be part of the solution or part of the problem. I do not so I want to go young this year and next and then if you need to fill holes in 2019, there is a big FA group of #1 and #2 starters on the open market. We cannot and should not waste this chance by giving innings to pitchers who will not be here in 2019. That is my point.

That works when you have an ace at the front of the rotation, or two very good starters in the 1 and 2 postitions. Pitching wins ballgames and the Twins do not have a front of the rotation piece at this time. Therefore we cannot afford a back of the rotation pitcher in the back of the rotation. We need a player or players who need evaluation over the next two years, to see if they are the future or we need to find other pitchers to fill these spots, you cannot wait until next year for this or you will see more of the SSS comments.

Biggest issue here is giving Molitor a chance to succeed. If you go into rebuild he has no chance to post a great record or even a good record. That will probably get him dismissed at some time this year and then you have wasted the time to give players who will not be here in 2 years playing time. Let's do this right. Either give Molitor a 2 year extension or let him go and find a manager to work with the youngsters. Not very many managers operate with the current year being the last year of their contract.

More likely Hughes gets cut if he cannot bring his velocity up to make all his pitches work. If he cannot get there maybe he starts on the DL with arm weakness until he can ramp up and go out on rehab to see if he can get the velocity up. If not you have to cut bait. There seem to be a fair number of arm injuries this spring. If this keeps up Twins should be able to trade a couple of starters for value to make the spots open. This could change if younger pitchers have bad springs and it is decided the veterans need to start here.

Brock this will not happen in July, because you would be giving assets away or eating a fair amount of money. Other organizations are able to do this, why not the Twins.

I want a starting rotation that averages more than 7.0 K's per 9. Gibson does not fit that definition, so I see no reason to continue the experiment and shop him. He is a back of a rotation starter on an under .500 club.

His 4 year average is about 1 WAR a year. That is back of rotation material and do not think Gibson will be helped by his infield defense this year. Get something for him while you can.

Problem is by 2019 you will be on the arbitration years of the Twins core. If they feel they are playing on 75 win teams because the Twins score 800+ runs and give up 850+ runs, they will start to consider whether they want to be here after arbitration is over. Worse case is Sano and Buxton tell the Twins they will leave when they reach FA. That will almost force the Twins to trade them after year 4 or during year 5 and the team will have to enter another rebuilding phase. I feel you have to cut to the chase and find out what pitchers you have in the upper levels of your system, before the core onfield players decide they probably are going to leave. The other alternative if convincing Pohlad to spend a ton of money on pitching after 2018. That argument is just as likely to get Falvey and Levine fired as it is to work.

Why do you feel this. He has had 1 good year out of 3-4. To me he is back of rotation material and with the Twins left side of the infield defense do not see a fit here. We need to find out what options we have for starting pitching going forward, I am not saying to release him, but get something(anything) for him before he has another bad year and truly becomes a pumpkin.