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DaveW

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Everything posted by DaveW

  1. DaveW
    Would just like to point out this is now by far the 2nd most viewed thread in Twins Daily (Twins forum) history. Great job keeping on point everyone! Combing this with the first thread we now have given Twins Daily over a quarter million views on this scoop/topic/news alone!
  2. DaveW
    Nightengale is significantly wrong more than he is right. And in the case of the suspensions that never happened he has been proven a fraud time and time again. Nightengale is a joke IMO and one of the worst "reporters" out there. But then again he works for a publication that barely does any real journalism.
  3. DaveW
    He nearly had a 5 WAR two years ago and is just now entering his peak. It's pretty obvious that his 2nd half struggles and early struggles this season were an anomaly and a lot was due to injury.
  4. DaveW
    The Dodgers may have paid a ton of money and given up a lot in future intl signings etc for Alvarez, but let's not pretend that they would suddenly prefer to trade Urias or Bellinger over him for that reason. It has everything to do with current value.
  5. DaveW
    Maybe if Dozier's 2016 was luck driven I could see this, but it wasn't. His ISO has improved for 4 straight years now, the power is real and not a fluke, the majority of his home runs were absolute bombs that would be clear the fences in pretty much every ball park in baseball, he is still in the prime of his career and 28-32 is when a players power typically hits it's peak as well. He additionally is a + defender at 2B and a ++ runner on the base paths, you are looking at a guy who should at the very least give you 30 HR and close to 20 SB. That's pretty freaking good. If he continues to hit like he did after his slow start in 2016, then you are looking at a guy who is knocking on the door for 50 HR next year.
  6. DaveW
    And JDL+Alvarez could combine to have less than 6 WAR in their entire career. That is where the risk comes into play. The odds of those two being busts are much higher then Dozier turning into a 3 WAR player IMO The last 3 years (which are the most important when figuring out what a 29 year old player will do moving forward) Dozier has averaged a 4.6 WAR. So I'd say the Dodgers can expect anywhere from 9 WAR to 12 WAR (or even higher) the next two years. Anything less would be because of an injury or a decent chunk of production falling off.
  7. DaveW
    JDL and Alvarez don't help the 2017 Dodgers win games, unless they are traded. 2018 onward? Different discussion, but the Dodgers clearly want to WIN NOW.
  8. DaveW
    They can replace Alvarez in 2019 easily, they have unlimited funds to sign whatever FA they want, and they can always spend on intl FA in a couple years as well. If Dozier puts up the numbers he did last year this year? Yes, the Dodgers are a significantly better team and have a much better shot to win a title.
  9. DaveW
    I keep reading this argument and honestly I don't get it. Yes, the Dodgers couldn't get Moncada...neither could nearly every other team. If the Dodgers were a small market team I could see why they wouldn't want to give up Alvarez a year later, but they aren't they are a large market team with unlimited money. Alvarez is simply one of many many assets they have, and if he can bring back the missing link to bring the Dodgers a world series contending team? They most certainly will do that. Alvarez in a best case scenario wouldnt be able to help the major league team until 2019 or so. Do you think the Dodgers at this stage are worried about that and worried about their ability to replace him by then?
  10. DaveW
    Yeah when it comes to Alvarez I wouldn't call someone ridiculous if they had him rated 35, or if they had him rated at 65 to be honest. There is a reason why the Dodgers have offered him up to the Twins (According to my source), after-all. He is a long ways away from being considered anything close to a can't miss guy.
  11. DaveW
    I think people are getting too hung up on fangraphs lists vs bpro lists vs BA lists vs MLB lists/rankings etc It's important to keep in mind, that while the writers on those sites are very talented/knowledgeable, the opinions that matter are the lead scouts and front office people who are employed by the specific MLB teams. Objectively JDL and Alvarez are very intriguing prospects, but neither are elite at this point in time (i.e. consensus top ten prospects in all of baseball) JDL to me is like Berrios with a decent amount of lower upside (#3 is his upside tbh) and Alvarez to me is like a Berrios with a higher upside but a significantly larger chance to bust out or end up in the pen. Anyone who thinks that is some preposterous deal for a player who could have 12 WAR over the next two seasons on a team friendly contract hasn't been watching baseball for that long IMO. It wouldn't end up going down as some huge overpay like some have claimed, it would go down initially as a pretty fair deal.
  12. DaveW
    I think Alvarez is a very intriguing low level prospect, he throws hard and "looks" the part and has a huge ceiling. I'd rank him somewhere between 30 and 50th in all of baseball. With that said, I pretty much said the same thing about Kohl Stewart when he was drafted as well (without throwing as hard), I think when it comes to guys who are 3+ years away, especially pitchers it's very wise to keep expectations somewhat in check. The reality is that even if Alvarez only becomes a #3 type or a strong RP he still ends up as a real solid player. Banking on him to become the franchises first ace in a decade is setting yourself up for disappointment. If he was in AA/AAA I could see those expectations, but not when he is this raw and this far away. Too many things can happen.
  13. DaveW
    Yup, I can confirm this. I reported this a couple days ago on twitter that the deal would have to be done this week. My source however said they see it happening/going through FWIW.
  14. DaveW
    Yes, that is true, but few teams have looked as obvious and inept as the Twins have over the years when it comes to these sort of "leaks" Sano's "weight issue" comes to mind.
  15. DaveW
    No, it's what Doogie reported though, and the Angels shot it down almost instantly, hence the spin.
  16. DaveW
    LOL yeah this is all basically setting up as: Twins trade Dozier for Alvarez+JDL+AAAA player. As soon as it happens the Twins will spin it as "We held out and "won" the trade because we got them to include Alvarez" when in fact Alvarez was always in the deal to begin with. These Twins "leaks" thus far are pretty funny tbh, the Angels being "in" on it, the Twins asking for final offers and The Twins putting a timeline on it for this week are all such obvious spin jobs coming from the FO. I don't know another franchise that does thing this obviously tbh.
  17. DaveW
    A lot of Dodger fan trolls are bothering me about Alvarez "there is NO WAY Alvarez would be traded" again those are just fans and it muddles the conversation cause it's just opinion based and most of them are just trolling. Wolfson has been cool, he says he hasn't heard about Alvarez but has been respectful, tbh I question Wolfsons source on this one after the Cardinals incident. I can assure you he hasn't spoken to my source.
  18. DaveW
    AAAA shouldn't be taken literally, it's just the "value" they would prefer to give up, someone with a very very very small chance of having a significant upside. I would also say that's a chris Davis was never a AAAA type. He was a former top prospect who was labeled a "bust" too early. A AAAA type is a chris collabello or Pat Dean. Of course some of those guys defy the odds from time to time as well. Twins however would prefer a lottery ticket type guy. (Think of liriano when he was included in the deal? Maybe?)
  19. DaveW
    Yeah deal is close, both teams "back at it" today. Stay tuned sports fans!
  20. DaveW
    The Len3 stuff and the Doogie stuff honestly came off as 100% spin to me so that when the trade does go down (for JDL+Alv etc) it will make the Twins look like a really great FO (smart move tbh), my source is adamant that both Alvarez and JDL are still in the deal and it's still the matter of the third player. No team would ever trade a 6 WAR player like Dozier for a guy like JDL straight up, especially one on a team friendly 2 year deal. Preposterous!
  21. DaveW
    Also when it comes to Gibson it's probably just time to accept the facts: He is a #5 type moving forward. Counting on him for anything more than 4.50 type ERA is wishful thinking.
  22. DaveW
    Gibson was one of the worst pitchers in baseball last year, he doesn't throw very hard and doesn't strike people out. He doesn't have any real trade value.
  23. DaveW
    Happens with every fan base
  24. DaveW
    because it's all spin. The idea that the Twins suddenly wouldn't be open to trade Dozier after some random "deadline " is preposterous. It's just spin coming from the Twins to try to get a second team to make a legit offer
  25. DaveW
    Yeah that's the whole thing, Alvarez is still a real long ways from being a cant miss prospect. Just like Kohl Stewart was when we drafted him for instance...
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