DaveW
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Everything posted by DaveW
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Call it a luxury all you want, the reality is the Dodgers are well behind the Cubs right now in the NL pecking order. That is not ideal for a win now team who outspends everyone else in baseball. When was the last time the Dodgers won a World Series or made the World Series? They absolutely need another impact bat if they want to be elite. Dozier is the perfect fit for them.
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Dozier was one of the best 15 players in baseball last year, he is on a very team freindly contract and is still in his prime. Yes last year was a career year thus far for him, but let's not pretend this is some insane luck driven aberration for him. His upside is the best 2B in baseball and a 5.5-7.0 WAR type. His floor is a 20-25 hr guy who is 2.5-3.0 WAR guy. His middle ground is a 3.5-5.0 WAR guy. That carries a ton of value IMO.
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Yeah I don't see any sort of discount or any real reason for Dozier to agree to an extension. Maybe if the Dodgers or someone offered him a 4 year 80 mil extension they would think about it? But I'm not sure I could see that happening.
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Rubio is awful defensively. They really need to trade him (not for Wall either) Trade him for picks and a couple solid bench pieces.
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Man I'm just really really happy Falvey and co are in charge of this trade. I fear to think what we would settle for if the old guard was still around.
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For Dozier
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That is pretty much the Twins stance as well. Though it's very unlikely they get him as a third piece. Dodgers won't want to give up 3 of their better pitching prospects IMo
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Yeah the 32 million they invested in him is a sunk cost at this point. It would be foolish for the dodgers to take that into some huge consideration. It's all about how they view their prospects and chances to help the team in the future. Would someone invest 32 million as of today knowing what we now know in Alvarez? Doubtful IMO
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Yeah, Twins are not interested in Stewart to be piece 1B in the trade, they would be more then willing to take him as the third piece, but that is highly doubtful, unless the Dodgers blink all of a sudden! It's not so much that DeLeon is the center piece it's that DeLeon AND Alvarez are the centerpieces and the rest needs to be figured out.
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Ceiling? Maybe, but Urias has a significantly higher chance of reaching that ceiling. Also Urias has a much higher floor.
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Dodgers are the only legit suitor for Dozier at this point. Giants, Mets, Yankees would LOVE to have them, but they aren't going to give up fair value in a trade at this point. It's the Dodgers or nothing at this point effectively. If it's nothing they can trade Dozier at a later date anyways.
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I also tend to think Dodger fans/independent bloggers are falling into the same trap we all do: Over-rating our own prospects. I remember the mere suggestion that Berrios had the upside of a #2 instead of a #1 was met with a lot of resistance to say the least DeLeon and Alvarez are good prospects no doubt, but DeLeon projects to be closer to a #3 then a #2/#1 and Alvarez is a lonnnnnnnng ways away and super raw. Good prospect? Like top 100? Maybe top 50? Yeah. elite prospect? nope.
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Alvarez has ace potential iMo
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Yup!
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To re-iterate: Stewart and Lux are OFF the table for the 3rd part of the trade.
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Let's discuss the impending trade of Brian Dozier here:
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That's the beauty! I'm just a single man, I'm not a blogger, I don't work for a team, I'm not a reporter. Any sort of revenge taken would be pointless! -
I think Alvarez > Lux+Stewart+Buehler personally.
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Thanks! Re: timeline, I'm not going to make any more declarations in timing LOL! My source continues to tell me it's close/going to happen at any moment. Again they have come 95% of the way on the trade at this point, they settled on the three main pieces (Dozier, DeLeon, Alvarez) it's just about that little last piece. It's taking longer then usual because: -There are no legit other destinations at this point. -Dozier isn't demanding a trade -It's a slow time for the HOT STOVE now anyways, most orgs go on christmas break more or less later this week until right after New Years.
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In Re: to Sale the White Sox absolutely wanted to trade him during the winter meetings, additionally the market for Sale was WHITE HOT, in this case, there really is no other trade partner who would offer anything near to what the Dodgers will offer for Dozier. Sure the Giants/Mets etc would love to have him, but they won't match the Dodgers offer. The Eaton one came out of no where to be honest. I am confident in my source who is pretty high up in one of the two orgs. Everything I said at the beginning of this thread has been now reported on (weeks later) by other reporters. DeLeon+Alvarez.
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Because there is no significant timeframe on when they need to get this done. Also the difference between Stewart and a AAAA type as a third piece is pretty significant IMO. It would be like the Twins just "tossing in" a guy like Kepler a few years ago just to get a trade done.
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According to my source (which predated all of this) Bellinger isn't the hold up, they got "off" bellinger quite some time ago as it was mentioned early on in this thread, Dodgers more or less said he was off limits (which makes sense since he is nearly MLB ready and they think he can be a big contributor for them in 2017) The twins have settled on DeLeon and Alvarez but want another good piece as well. Dodgers are holding firm on sending back filler as pieces 3 and 4. Don't read anything into the Giants, Mets etc being interested at this time, that is just a futile effort to try to "spin" it to make it seem like there is a larger realistic market for Dozier then there is. Right now it's a question of who blinks first: The Twins or the Dodgers. I'd guess it's the Dodgers and the Twins get a nice 3rd piece back (4th piece will either not exist or be a AAAA type)
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Is it more painful to be Twins Fan or Vikings Fan?
DaveW replied to Loosey's topic in The Sports Bar
Duby will inevitably go down with an injury. Because: Minnesota sports and all that -
Rubio is trash, the guy just can't "win" Ship dieng out as well, he can't play D either.
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Haha this team is so dumb. Thibs can't be fired quick enough.
