DaveW

You seem to keep moving your endpoints to suit you. You wanted to use 5 years for defensive stats b/c one year has a sample size issue but most stat guys say use three years for defensive stats. When 1 or 3 years are used, Span is the better defensive player and it isn't particularly close. So you pick 5 which coincides with Upton's best years and Span's worst and also the years defensive stats at the Dome were sorta fuzzy. And that way you get to ignore the downward trend Upton has shown in the defensive stats. For offense, you won't use 5 years b/c they include Span's best years, so we'll chop it to three, which include Span's injury affected years. But if we use one year or a 5 year time period, we see the offensive differences are basically nil. And all this was after you used hyperbole to support your nonsense claim that according to all stats, Upton was signficantly better defensively. You wonder why people are having trouble with your posts? The only reason I brought up his 5 years prior of defensive stats was the fact that he was being called "below average" defensively because of one years worth of UZR data. I brought up the 5 years to show that when looking at advanced defensive metrics it is often foolish to just look at one year, hell If we still look at the two years prior to 2012 UZR data Upton still shows up as a positive. The fact that he didn't get a vote in the fielding bible this year means nothing to me. Also, I never said Upton was better defensively then Span, I just said that calling Span above average while Upton below average was disingenuous for the sake of an argument.

Yeah, this was never about the contracts as I never contended that part. But way to try to grossly skew the argument at the last second after I pointed out how Upton has been the superior player the past 3 years.

Speilman has been getting plenty of heat, but he also did well with a pretty great draft this year. Frasier takes some of the blame because he is the one who is choosing to keep Ponder out there. Also I imagine he had some say in drafting Ponder as well? Also I'm not advocating for the firing of Fraiser at this point, especially in the case of a "fire just to fire him"scenario. I do think they should find out if a guy like Gruden would be interested in coming on board.

So now we are moving this argument all the way down to a 2nd half argument? Well in the 2nd half last year Upton improved quite a bit as well (actually quite a bit more then Span) .819 OPS vs .783, and Upton upped his by 140 points vs Spans 80 points (not that any of this really has anything to do with anything) You bring up WAR, which is very flawed anyways, but it should be noted that Upton posted a 4.1 and 4.1 in 2010/2011 while Span posted a 2.6 and 2.2. So over those three years Upton had a WAR almost 3 wins total higher then Span during that time. Additionally, again you say below average CF and you are wrong.

You're being intentionally obtuse. 2010 Target Field was merciless to Denard, just like it was every lefty on the Twins. Morneau OPSed a whopping .300 points lower at home in 2010 while Mauer OPSed .120 points lower. Denard just had a bad year across the board. His BABIP was .020 lower than 2012 (and WAY lower than 2009) and nothing was going right for the guy. It happens. With the move to the NL and Washington, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see Span breakout in 2013 (and I hope he does, he deserves to be on a winner). Um in 2010 Span actually had an OPS 160 points HIGHER at home on the road and besides so um....what? If you are saying that Target Field rated as a pitchers park in 2010, you are correct, however Tampa Bay rated as a pitchers park as well, actually quite a bit more, and more overall in its existence.

The fact is Upton has outperformed him significantly over the last 3 years. Poll 30 GMs in the league and ask them who a btter player is and you will get 30 Upton answers. If Span was considered the better player you would have seen a lot more rumors in regards to the trade and a lot larger names being thrown around. Jesus Christ, Dave. I said that if you factor in injuries, the pendulum swings heavily into Upton's favor. Or did you also miss the sentence that read " It's hard to separate the player from the injuries in this case." We were talking hypotheticals, not actual reality. In reality, Span's injury history is a massive drag on his value. *headdesk* He was healthy in 2010 yet posted an OPS about a 100 points less, you write it off as pretty miserable overall, yet still say that taking injuries out of it you'd prefer Span. I was showing you that even when healthy Upton is outperforming him. For their careers, Upton has a 105 OPS+, Span a 104. Over the last 5 years, both have a 104. In the same time, Span has a 105 wRC+ to Upton's 106. They are different type of players but about equal in offensive rate stats. (Durability is a different issue). Teams don't career about what Upton and Span were doing 5 years ago, it's a what have you done for me lately league. Teams look at: What did you do last year? What did you do the last 3 years. The point is, at this stage who is the more valuable player. Upton in the last 3 years has significantly better offensive numbers in both OPS and OPS+, Upton has value on the basepaths and Upton is much less of a "health risk" defensively we can go back and forth on various metrics, but overall the past 3 years and even before that rate both as above average CF's.

The fact is Upton has outperformed him significantly over the last 3 years. Poll 30 GMs in the league and ask them who a btter player is and you will get 30 Upton answers. If Span was considered the better player you would have seen a lot more rumors in regards to the trade and a lot larger names being thrown around. Jesus Christ, Dave. I said that if you factor in injuries, the pendulum swings heavily into Upton's favor. Or did you also miss the sentence that read " It's hard to separate the player from the injuries in this case." We were talking hypotheticals, not actual reality. In reality, Span's injury history is a massive drag on his value. *headdesk* He was healthy in 2010 yet posted an OPS about a 100 points less, you write it off as pretty miserable overall, yet still say that taking injuries out of it you'd prefer Span. I was showing you that even when healthy Upton is outperforming him. You mean his 2nd full season? Yeah, it's unusual to see a player drop some in his second full season...seems they have a name for that... LOL, he had 411 PA his "rookie" season. If anything 2010 was closer to his "third year". He dropped off from 2008 to 2009 as well. Heck I am not even bringing up his injury situation with you. Factor that in and it isn't even close.

The fact is Upton has outperformed him significantly over the last 3 years. Poll 30 GMs in the league and ask them who a btter player is and you will get 30 Upton answers. If Span was considered the better player you would have seen a lot more rumors in regards to the trade and a lot larger names being thrown around. Jesus Christ, Dave. I said that if you factor in injuries, the pendulum swings heavily into Upton's favor. Or did you also miss the sentence that read " It's hard to separate the player from the injuries in this case." We were talking hypotheticals, not actual reality. In reality, Span's injury history is a massive drag on his value. *headdesk* He was healthy in 2010 yet posted an OPS about a 100 points less, you write it off as pretty miserable overall, yet still say that taking injuries out of it you'd prefer Span. I was showing you that even when healthy Upton is outperforming him.

I see his positive UZR, which is what I use along with the "eye test". I'm not a huge fan of DRS, but since we are on that subject game keep in mind that prior to Revere hoping in the OF along with Span, Span was posting negative defensive runs saved as well (2010 season and before) and actually was posting less OOZ then Upton as well. What does this all tell us? Upton and Span are very similar, so you can't call one "above average" while dismissing the other as "below average"

The fact is Upton has outperformed him significantly over the last 3 years. Poll 30 GMs in the league and ask them who a btter player is and you will get 30 Upton answers. If Span was considered the better player you would have seen a lot more rumors in regards to the trade and a lot larger names being thrown around.

Dude, Upton is a significantly better player then Span, just take a look at the upside and his last 3 years of offensive production vs Span. Also, not sure where you are getting this Upton is below average defensively thing. Upton actually rates as above average according to ever defensive metric out there. Also, Upton doesn't have the injury concerns Span has and has shown significant power spikes as he has started to get close to his peak ages. Is Span a better bargain at his deal? Yeah, and I would take Span at his contract over Upton. But to say straight up (money not an issue) that you would take Span over Upton is disingenuous, or else you don't follow baseball much. Both brWAR and fangraphs UZR have Upton listed as a negative defender now. Last year, both rWAR and fWAR would have Span as the slightly better player (although that comes with all the WAR is really not that accurate admonitions). I'd prefer Upton for his durability but it's close. See my comment before your post. In the 5 years prior to 2012 Upton was listed as a positive defender in CF. Moving forward I will take the 5 plus years over the 1 negative year as a sign of things to come, especially from a 28 year old.

Also: Career UZR/150: Span: 4.5 Upton: 3.9 Like I said before, very similar with maybe a slight advantage to Span. Upton however has the significant advantage in offense and base running.

Dude, Upton is a significantly better player then Span, just take a look at the upside and his last 3 years of offensive production vs Span. Also, not sure where you are getting this Upton is below average defensively thing. Upton actually rates as above average according to ever defensive metric out there. Also, Upton doesn't have the injury concerns Span has and has shown significant power spikes as he has started to get close to his peak ages. Is Span a better bargain at his deal? Yeah, and I would take Span at his contract over Upton. But to say straight up (money not an issue) that you would take Span over Upton is disingenuous, or else you don't follow baseball much. Upton rates as above average according to every defensvie metric out there? Like his -3.2 UZR/150 this last season? Or maybe his -4 defensive runs saved this last season? Or maybe him being ranked 19 out of 20 qualifying CFs with plays made outside the zone? He was so bad in fact, that he got not one singular vote for the fielding bible award for CFs, when 24 other CFs did? Then there was the -7 defensive runs saved in CF last year and -19 defensive runs saved in CF the year before. Are those defensive metrics you're referring to?? He also had a BA in the .240s last year, an OBP below .300 and his 169Ks. GREAT offensive numbers. Did you miss all that when drooling over the HR and SBs (which I mentioned, BTW) Don't talk to me about not following baseball too much, you look silly...especially when you ay Upton was an above average defensive CF Well you are the one who is using one year's worth of defensive stats. Anyone that understands how defensive advanced metrics works knows that it is better to take a longer look type approach to it rather then just one year at a time. In 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 Upton rated as above average in total fielding and UZR. So basically we have 5 years that say above average and 1 year below average....hmm....I wonder what conclusions we can draw from that. Keep sticking to the smaller picture though!

Minus the injuries, I'd rather have Span, honestly. They both OPS around the same but Span gets more of that OPS from OBP. Of course, injury concerns slant that back into Upton's favor quite a bit. First off, that's not really accurate: Spans last three years: .679 .678 .738 OBP= .331 .328 .342 Uptons last three years: .745 .759 .752 BP=.322 .331 .298 Keep in mind that also Upton was playing in Tampa Bay which was quite a large pitchers park in 2012 as well as the rest of its history vs Target field that was neutral in 2012 and close to neutral overall. Upton also will give you 30-40 SB a year vs Span who will give you 20-25 at most along with a ton of pick offs. Lastly, give me the guy that has 25+ HR power (will hit for 30+ next year if healthy) over the guy who has 5 HR power. Defensively all things considered (Park, other guys sharing the OF) they are basically a wash, maybe a slight advantage to Span. IMO its not really close if you take money out of the equation, with or without injuries.

Get off the soapbox! That offer is insulting to Sanchez and his agent, since it is at least 33% less then even close to market value for him. Dollar amount doesn't matter, let's say you know your fair market value as a blogger is $50,000 a year, if someone gave you a serious offer to write for their website for $20,000 would you not feel insulted? Same thing with the CEO who is worth 10 mil a year being offered 2 mil a year. Kettle, meet Pot. http://www.websmileys.com/sm/mad/1106.gif I guess I should have replaced soapbox with faux social outrage.

Dude, Upton is a significantly better player then Span, just take a look at the upside and his last 3 years of offensive production vs Span. Also, not sure where you are getting this Upton is below average defensively thing. Upton actually rates as above average according to ever defensive metric out there. Also, Upton doesn't have the injury concerns Span has and has shown significant power spikes as he has started to get close to his peak ages. Is Span a better bargain at his deal? Yeah, and I would take Span at his contract over Upton. But to say straight up (money not an issue) that you would take Span over Upton is disingenuous, or else you don't follow baseball much.

Get off the soapbox! That offer is insulting to Sanchez and his agent, since it is at least 33% less then even close to market value for him. Dollar amount doesn't matter, let's say you know your fair market value as a blogger is $50,000 a year, if someone gave you a serious offer to write for their website for $20,000 would you not feel insulted? Same thing with the CEO who is worth 10 mil a year being offered 2 mil a year.

He's a weird dude, got banned 3+ years from his sweedish baseball league because he punched some dude in the face during a game. lolol how did you find this out In the other league we were talking about various baseball leagues we are currently in. I think I was thrilled because I hit my first home run in something like 14 years, he mentioned the league that he is in that he was finally able to get reinstated in, I pinged him more about it and he basically said some guy was talking **** to one of his team mates so he went up and knocked some dude out cold haha Bee is a cock sometimes, but I actually have grown to get along with him more often then not lately, if anything else he provides entertainment.

I think there's a chance he'll get six years. It seems that every year, there's a team willing to overpay a guy based on his previous postseason. Sanchez pitched really well for the Tigers and some GM will put too much stock in that performance. 3.75 ERA as a Tiger, also a sub 7 k/9 rate. He wasn't exactly Cy Young out there.

Uhh, yes, yes I would. Sanchez is 7 years younger and a significantly better pitcher. I would gladly give him 4/50-52 then 3/42 for Dempster. I would do as high as 5/60-62 for sanchez. Your 5/62 would not even get you a phone call back. This guy is going to get 6 years I would bet money on it. This is the problem with signing top-tier free agents. It just doesn't work. You have to build through your farm system and trades. There is no way any of these guys are worth this amount of money. Dempster for 3 years...at age 35, no chance. Forget it. We need to keep looking for the bargains. We may suck next year, but I'd rather suck with a low payroll than suck a little less with a high payroll. Use that money to resign our guys when they turn into to studs: for example a guy like Meyer is a Boras client. Save that money and try to sign him early for long term (which is probably not going to happen because Boras is the worst thing in baseball). 6 years is a long time that typically only "aces" get. Sanchez isn't an Ace, they are asking for 6/90 but I would be shocked if they got that much. 5 years/75 would get it done I imagine, possibly even 5/70

Harden hasn't hard decent numbers in over 3 years. He didn't pitch at all last year and in 2010/2011 he failed to hit 100 IP and had a 5.36 ERA Any team would be foolish to give him a major league deal, give him an invite to spring training and see what happens. Just dont count on him to produce.

Uhh, yes, yes I would. Sanchez is 7 years younger and a significantly better pitcher. I would gladly give him 4/50-52 then 3/42 for Dempster. I would do as high as 5/60-62 for sanchez.

Absolutely not. Dempster is a #4 at best in the AL and he is getting old. If you want a guy who can give you 200+ IP of mediocre (4.50ERA) pitching, why not just sign Pavano to a minimum deal? I would be ok with a 1 year deal for Dempster, but anything more then that? Pass.

Who cares what he said in the conference call, Ryan still plans to compete in 2013 and if he signs 2-3 FA pitchers the Twins very well could compete. I'm sure he would have preferred major league ready talent in return for Span, but like he said, any guy with an Ace like upside is basically untouchable by the time they get to the higher levels in the minors. Ryan made the best trade possible, would you have been happier if they would have traded him for some #4 at the major league level or something?

The Dodgers are shopping him and I think the Twins should be interested: Pros: -Fast as ****! Over a full season this kid can swipe as many as 60 bags, the Twins aren't a running team, but with Revere+Hicks+Gordon in a lineup they could change that. -Potential Long term solution- Under team control until 2018, so in addition to helping the team out now, he could be a long term fit. -He wouldn't cost an arm and a leg- He is coming off a rather poor season, so the Dodgers won't be able to ask nearly as much as the Indians are for Cabrera for example. -Was only a year removed from being the #26 prospect in all of baseball -He proved he could hit in the minors, in 2011 he put up a .783 OPS in AAA and has an overall .742 OPS in the minors. He doesn't have any power, and his offensive game may remind you of Revere, but you can live with Revere like production from a SS, much harder to swallow in the OF - Has potential to be very good defensively even though he hasn't shown it. Cons: -I recall him having some attitude/maturity issues last year with Dodger management. -He hit poorly in 2012. Very poorly. -His UZR was terrible as he struggled defensively. -There could be several teams interested in him. Summary: The Twins as we know are a disaster in the MI for now and most likely the future as all the in house candidates have large question marks one way or another (Dozier- Can he even hit?, Rosario- Will he stick at 2B? Levi- Still far away) Gordon has all the potential in the world but hasn't put it together yet, he is a perfect " buy low" candidate and shouldn't cost a whole lot at this point. I wouldn't trade any of the Twins top 8 prospects, but would give up any of the 9-15 type guys, or even a couple of 15-25 guys to bring him in. Thoughts? -