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DaveW

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Everything posted by DaveW

  1. DaveW
    He has struggled defensively in the majors, but from the scouting report I read he should be able to be a pretty good SS defensively. Again he isn't a sure thing, but the potential is there and the asking price shouldn't be to high. Do the Dodgers need RP help? Maybe Burton could be included or something as well? I'm not sure so Gardy is adverse to stealing bases, Revere had 40 in 120 games last year, and Alexi had 21 in like 100 games. The Twins just didn't have a lot to work with as the other "speedster" Span seemed to get picked off quite a bit. Gardy used to send Mauer and Cuddyer every once in a while back in the day as well.
  2. DaveW
    Well, yeah. But it's a really low bar. He's put up FIPs in the high 3's and xFIP's in the low 3's the past two seasons, with K rates around 7.5 per nine. It's certainly debatable whether it's worth what he'll cost to have him pitch for a team that appears at the moment to not be planning on contending in 2013. But he's clearly a decent bet to be better than the likely in-house solutions to fill one of the non-Diamond rotation spots. So a poor defense has caused his ERA to be inflated? I ask because our defense wasn't good last year and it just got worse a few days ago It looks like his HR% increased it, as well as a slight increase in BABIP and decrease in strand rate, who knows and maybe some bad luck?, and once Hicks is up our defense will probably be better then last year (OF wise), but since he actually strikes out people (unlike the rest of our rotation) it shouldn't matter as much? It is hard to argue with that K/BB ratio. I don't think xFIP and FIP are an end all be all, but it does suggest that he was a bit undervalued.
  3. DaveW
    Well, yeah. But it's a really low bar. He's put up FIPs in the high 3's and xFIP's in the low 3's the past two seasons, with K rates around 7.5 per nine. It's certainly debatable whether it's worth what he'll cost to have him pitch for a team that appears at the moment to not be planning on contending in 2013. But he's clearly a decent bet to be better than the likely in-house solutions to fill one of the non-Diamond rotation spots. Interesting, I didn't even realize that. FWIW: Bill James has him as a 4.10 ERA guy this year. It also looks like he has a rather high HR%, maybe a move to Target Field could help him a bit? With that xFIP and FIP the past two years, maybe he is a good "buy low" candidate. I could get behind a one year deal for him. Thanks for pointing that out, I never would have checked to be honest.
  4. DaveW
    I have no problem over paying for players, those players have to be better then Ryan Dempster though. This team needs front line starters, not more #4/#5 types. I'd be shocked if Dempster were able to post a sub 4.00 ERA in the AL
  5. DaveW
    Blanton sucks, but I would rather have him at 1 year 2 mil then Dempster at 3 years. We still need to target a top tier guy though.
  6. DaveW
    If Dempster turned down 2/26 from an NL team I doubt he would agree to 2/26 + 1/13 option from an AL team, unless the buy out on that option was abnormally high. I think he is going to push for as many years as he can get, as this very well could be his last contract.
  7. DaveW
    Different year, same ****ty guido trade offers. Come on mike!
  8. DaveW
    While I hate getting into payroll debates, it's worth noting that the Twins went over their budget in 2010 to get Pavano in January. $112m isn't really a fair baseline to use, as it was a conscious overspending based on a specific opportunity. Yeah, I don't get it, and the constant bitching about payroll gives me tired head. We aren't even in Janurary yet, now is not the time to worry about total payroll. I do know one thing, spending money for the sole sake of spending money is a really bad idea, especially when you are talking long term deals. At this point I'm much more worried about our payroll obligations for 2014/2015 then I am for 2013. In a perfect world the Twins would sign a top tier pitcher to a long term deal, and any of the guys who project to be #4/#5's be brought it on one year deals and potentially a two year deal as long as it isn't to expensive. At the end of the day: Give me Hendriks as our #5 then giving a guy like Dempster 3 years, as there actually is a pretty decent chance Hendriks gives you similar value for about 12 million+ less a year.
  9. DaveW
    I'd still like to hear how BJ Upton is a better player then Denard Span, especially moving forward. Not a better value, not a better person, a better player. Show me evidence to the contrary and I will tend to agree, I have been posting with a number of these guys for 5+ years, they know I will change my opinion on a player all the time when presented with new evidence/ideas.
  10. DaveW
    Great comparison. Smart people go after the Denard Spans and Josh Willinghams of the world. They're going to bring a lot of value to the team for not a lot of cash. Not-as-smart people do things like give BJ Upton $75m. Not that I think the Braves are dumb; they're one of the smarter organizations in baseball... but that doesn't mean they can't do dumb things. I agree with everything you said, as I mentioned, for the money Span is the man to go with on this.
  11. DaveW
    I will listen to offers for Beckett and maybe Soto
  12. DaveW
    loool
  13. DaveW
    ok thanks! That's it huh? Yeah, that's what I figured. http://www.websmileys.com/sm/sport/sport25.gif You guys had enough yet? That image is accurate, as I am certainly right handed.
  14. DaveW
    Yeah I am seeing the auto roll ads and expanding ads again and it freezes up the ability to enter some of the forums, I don't mind having to reload a time or two, but a lot of people will get turned off by the whole thing. Is USAToday/Big Lead Sports still running the ads? I guarantee you they can turn off the auto play, video, expanding ads very very easily, if they are continuing to jerk you around you should just threaten to leave them (plenty of other companies out there would take your traffic)
  15. DaveW
    Just because you have the money doesn't mean you should go out and start overpaying for mediocre starting pitchers. Now if you want to over pay for Dempster on a 1 year deal, fine. But I don't want to see them handicap the future by handing out a bunch of bad long term contracts just for the sake of "spending money for 2013" If you give me the choice between: 1. Overpaying for Dempster on a three year deal or 2. Blowing up the team and go into a complete rebuild. Honestly, give me #2 as Dempster really doesn't make us that much better for the future.
  16. DaveW
    ok thanks! That's it huh? Yeah, that's what I figured. I already responded to the rest of your questions you asked for the most part, I don't feel like dancing in circles any more with you. You said Span is more valuable (taking money off the table) then Upton, myself and every GM in the league disagree with you. Also, I didn't say you knew nothing about baseball, I said that if you only use one years worth of defensive metric data you were either: A. Being Disingenuous B. Knew nothing about baseball. It was an either/or scenario.
  17. DaveW
    ok thanks!
  18. DaveW
    I can't help but notice you didn't answer the question: If Span were a free agent this year, would he get a 5/75 contract? If you think he would, then I guess he has at least the same value as Upton, if you think he wouldn't, then I guess he wouldn't have as much value. Yes or no?
  19. DaveW
    Seriously. Stop being a prick. You know exactly what I meant by that statement. But yeah, there's a chance I'd take 2012 Carroll over 2012 Hardy. JJ was pretty bad this year. Actually I thought I knew what you meant, but now you are saying you would rather have had Carroll last year then Hardy so now I am confused. Ben Revere had a .333 OBP last year does this mean you would take him over Upton as well moving forward? (honest question)
  20. DaveW
    Are you ****ing kidding me, Dave? I wanted Hardy around because he's not goddamned awful and he plays shortstop (very well). Given the Twins history of middle infielders, who didn't want that? Hardy's OBP is not optimal but when your other options include All-Stars like (fill in name of god-awful Twins middle infielder here), I'd take the corpse of Honus Wagner over those guys. But when given an option, I'll always take the guy who makes less outs over the guy who can't get on base. Over the course of a season, that's the best way to win baseball games. I'm also the guy that constantly repeats "the most important thing in baseball is not getting out". Carroll had a higher OBP then Span last year, and significantly higher then Hardy (and Hardy as a Twin). Does that mean you prefer Carroll at SS over Hardy? Now you're being intentionally dense just to confuse the argument. I already stated how I felt OBP should be weighted compared to SLG. You were the one who just said "But when given an option, I'll always take the guy who makes less outs over the guy who can't get on base" JJ Hardy had a .286 OBP last year. Does that mean you will always take Carroll over him?
  21. DaveW
    The Puck: To simplify this all a bit again: If Span was a free agent this off-season, would some team give him a 5 year/ 75 mil contract? I will hang up and listen at this point since you obviously aren't going to change your mind on this topic.
  22. DaveW
    Are you ****ing kidding me, Dave? I wanted Hardy around because he's not goddamned awful and he plays shortstop (very well). Given the Twins history of middle infielders, who didn't want that? Hardy's OBP is not optimal but when your other options include All-Stars like (fill in name of god-awful Twins middle infielder here), I'd take the corpse of Honus Wagner over those guys. But when given an option, I'll always take the guy who makes less outs over the guy who can't get on base. Over the course of a season, that's the best way to win baseball games. I'm also the guy that constantly repeats "the most important thing in baseball is not getting out". Carroll had a higher OBP then Span last year, and significantly higher then Hardy (and Hardy as a Twin). Does that mean you prefer Carroll at SS over Hardy?
  23. DaveW
    I'm not going to debate your "TF is tough on lefties" because like I stated before, Span isn't your typical left handed batter. As far as you calling him a really unlucky dude in 2010 you may be only partiall correct. Couldn't it be argued that his BABIP in 2009 (.353) was in fact pretty "lucky"? Especially since he hasn't come within 35 pts of that number since then? Oh, absolutely. His 2009 BABIP was extremely lucky. Six of one, half dozen of the other, which is why I initially referenced his 2012 BABIP, which was still .020 higher than 2010. If you're allowed to use Span's 2010 against him, it's only fair to come down hard on Upton for his 2012, where he didn't even get on base 30% of the time. Unless you're knocking 40 balls out of the park, that's awful. Weighting OBP at 1.5-1.8:1 versus slugging (about where it should be weighted depending on who you talk to), Span was considerably better in 2012 than Upton. Funny I could have sworn you were one of the people saying the Twins should have kept Hardy around, while other people were crying about his .310 OBP. So now its all about OBP? Did Upton have his warts this year? no doubt. But if you look at everything all together with salary taken out of the picture its Upton in a landslide. If you take injuries out of the picture it's still Upton, even with your weighted OPS average Upton outperformed Span over the past 3 years.
  24. DaveW
    So when I mentioned his negative defensive runs saved in 2010 and 2011, I was just using one year of data? That's Interesting. On top of that, are you or aren't you the one who said all defensive metrics show he's an above average defender? A combined UZR of .8 over the last three years and an average of -10 defensive runs saved over the last three years show he's above average? I already mentioned that I prefer to use UZR, and also pointed out that within the last 3 years Span had a negative RS as well. Does that mean he is below average? Call him what you want, the fact is calling Span "Above Average" while dismissing Upton as "Below Average" was incorrect as it was stating that one player is significantly better defensively, when that just isn't the case. On the other side of things, I show how Upton is significantly more valuable as a runner and a hitter, and you just scoff and make snarky "well chicks dig the long ball derp" quips while ignoring that fact that he has outperformed him quite a bit OPS and OPS+ wise, and as far as base path value goes? It's not even close. Oh, and this doesn't even take into fact that Span has some health questions moving forward.
  25. DaveW
    I'm not going to debate your "TF is tough on lefties" because like I stated before, Span isn't your typical left handed batter. As far as you calling him a really unlucky dude in 2010 you may be only partiall correct. Couldn't it be argued that his BABIP in 2009 (.353) was in fact pretty "lucky"? Especially since he hasn't come within 35 pts of that number since then?
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