DaveW

Revere/Hicks OF would be freaking awesome.

I don't think the team will be significantly worse. Much of Span's value came from defense and Revere will surpass that. Offensively, it allows us to potentially put a power bat in RF (Parmelee will get first shot but Plouffe and/or Hicks/Arcia will probably get looks there too). It's not like Revere should have had a death grip on RF last year in the first place. The Twins could have put either Parmelee or Plouffe out there last year. So defensively, the outfield is substantially worse. Offensively, you're trading Span for Parmelee. Plouffe was in the lineup already anyways. It's worse, but not as bad as some people are making it out to be. Revere in CF >>>>>>>>>>>>> Span in CF As long as Parmelee can hold his own (I see no reason why he can't) the Twins should be fine out there.

We've tossed around some Gophers stuff but nothing has really clicked yet. Personally, I'm more interested in pro sports and if the NHL ever drops a puck on the ice again, I'd like to get a lot more Wild stuff out there. In the meantime , how about a picture of Bettman's face with some crosshairs on it? I'd buy that **** up

And those are absolutely valid criticisms of the metrics. I don't think anyone would argue that there isn't room for improvement. Defensive metrics are barely out of their infancy; they have a lot of room to grow and improve. Even I try to avoid relying on them too much. WAR is a good quick-and-dirty metric but I wouldn't base my entire opinion on the metric because of its reliance on somewhat flawed defensive ratings. But we're off to a good start and the metrics continue to improve as they are refined. The fact is, until we get FieldFx defensive statistics will continue to be pretty flawed.

Drew Butera has hit incredibly well over short stretches of time, but given a large enough sample, it inevitably regresses to his true level of putridity. It's no different for something like UZR, odd things can happen in small samples. Except nobody says, "I know the numbers say Butera hit .350 over the last month. But that's not what happened. I know he's a bad hitter, therefore that couldn't have happened." But that's exactly what the inventor of UZR, and others, say about defensive metrics. Either Valencia saved 6 runs that year, or the metric is extremely unreliable at best, worthless at worst. Which is it? BTW, do you agree with the idea (as implied above) that Valencia's UZR was positively influenced by playing next to Hardy? Or, as I've seen stated here that Span's UZR benefitted from Revere? If that's the case, wouldn't that be another reason to question whether UZR actually measures anything? Though I am not a fan of your UZR bashing, I will say that over the years I have grown to trust UZR less and less but it still has plenty of value when used to show the WHOLE picture of what a player does, this includes: Sabr stats, traditional stats, scouting reports and the good old eyeball test. Anyone who only uses UZR or WAR to claim a player is great is almost as foolish as someone who only uses RBI to state the same thing. You are correct with Span, his UZR doubled by having Revere in the OF along side him, which makes perfect sense.

Making Gopher shirts seems like a good way to bankrupt the business, does anyone actually care about that teams crappy football/basketball team? Now if you did hockey you could be onto something...

A **** ton of money. Trust me on this, I have looked into it.

Whatever Kab, I certainly am worried about the state of the 2021 Twins.

I would call their run blocking ability very good. This is one of the few times in his career that I can remember Peterson getting 6-7 yards before contact on a consistent basis. They are really blocking well, especially when you consider our ability to complete anything over 10 yards is seemingly impossible. That's a lot of yardage against 8-9 man defensive fronts. t I wouldn't oppose it but let's face it - we're stuck with Ponder at least one more year and then we'll be addressing it in the draft again. Our cart is hitched to Ponder for at least that long. The upside of that is that the draft this year is shallow in QBs and likely very good in two years. The downside is we continue to waste the career of maybe the best running back of all time. Certainly the best of this generation. I dunno man, if Ponder continues to suck it up I think Leslie Fraiser and Speilman start feeling the heat (FWIW: i don't think either should be fired yet, they were given a **** team. Musgrave....yeah he needs to go) I could see them pulling the trigger on bringing in a guy like Smith or Flynn for an honest open competition for the QB spot. In addition to AP in his prime, you are also going to start wasting Percy in his prime and Jared Allen towards the end of his prime. I know I am a super homer, but I think if we get Alex Smith, and use the draft for more O-line help and maybe a WR we could be looking at a legit contender for 2013. 22 games started or so is enough to find out what Ponder is made of, and plus you can always have him as a backup or whatever if Smith doesn't work out.

Benson would not land you anything close to Meyer, his value is about as low as it could be currently. Sure the Twins could have maybe traded Hicks for Meyer, but it would have been a mistake. As nice as 3 years of Span would be, 6+ years of Hicks (for even cheaper overall) is the superior choice to keep for a rebuilding team like the Twins. It should be noted that Hicks has a greater upside then Span had/has as he is a better fielder, has more speed on the basepaths, has more power, has a better arm and a better eye at the plate. The main question with Hicks at this point is will he be able to continue to hit for averag and continue to increase his power. Vodkadave... You should also mention that the Nationals would rather have Span right now because Span will be of more use in 2013. I mean that is probably true, but I'm not sure the Nats would have told the Twins "we have no interest in Hicks". There is a decent to good chance that Hicks can contribute in 2013 and even though the Nats are set up very nicely for 2013, they are set up even more nicely for 2014-2015.I I guess what I am saying is it wouldn't have killed the Nats to bring in Hicks and keep Harper in CF for another half season. I'm just personally glad the Twins traded Span rather then Hicks. The point is moot as the Nats already have their own Hicks in Brian Goodwin. Span has just become his placeholder. Goodwin is a nice prospect, but lets not say he is "their Hicks" he has exactly 100 games in his professional career and struggled quite a bit in AA. Hicks is a easily a superior prospect to Goodwin at this time, ntm Goodwin still might be a corner OF instead of a CF anyways.

2 more years? There is a good chance Hicks is up this year, and barring a major injury or significant regression he will certainly be in the plans at the beginning of next year. Your being silly now with your (Meyer wont dont anything for 4 years and Hicks won't be ready for 2 years) when in fact that is simply false.

Benson would not land you anything close to Meyer, his value is about as low as it could be currently. Sure the Twins could have maybe traded Hicks for Meyer, but it would have been a mistake. As nice as 3 years of Span would be, 6+ years of Hicks (for even cheaper overall) is the superior choice to keep for a rebuilding team like the Twins. It should be noted that Hicks has a greater upside then Span had/has as he is a better fielder, has more speed on the basepaths, has more power, has a better arm and a better eye at the plate. The main question with Hicks at this point is will he be able to continue to hit for averag and continue to increase his power. Vodkadave... You should also mention that the Nationals would rather have Span right now because Span will be of more use in 2013. I mean that is probably true, but I'm not sure the Nats would have told the Twins "we have no interest in Hicks". There is a decent to good chance that Hicks can contribute in 2013 and even though the Nats are set up very nicely for 2013, they are set up even more nicely for 2014-2015.I I guess what I am saying is it wouldn't have killed the Nats to bring in Hicks and keep Harper in CF for another half season. I'm just personally glad the Twins traded Span rather then Hicks.

I had to read that twice, because I wasn't sure if you were referring to Gonzalez or Millone as the MLB ready #2 (You're referring to Gonzalez, right?) edit: because, at the time, they were both MLB ready no. 2's, even if BA didn't include Millone in their rankings. Gonzalez had a great year. Bill James thinks he will regress back into that no. 2. So, Peacock, Cole, Norris - they were all just gravy, along with the 3 extra years of team control on their new no. 2 starter. This may be splitting hairs but I didn't hear anyone calling Millone a sure thing major league ready #2, Gonzalez was and continues to remain the much better pitcher. There is a reason why Millone wasn't cracking the top 100 lists everywhere... Peacock was the centerpiece of that trade, no? The comparison is still moot as Gonzalez is a top flight pitcher and Span is an above average CF. Which one of those are harder to find on the FA market/trade market?

Yeah the line isn't terrible, its right around average but def an improvement over last year. I mean Peterson is great and all, but you gotta give the online some credit for him leading the league in yards, no? Lev, thoughts on trying to bring in Alex Smith? Obviously he isn't the ideal franchise Andrew Luck/Aaron Rogers QB everyone would prefer, but Luck seems to be a pretty solid QB. Hell, if it wasn't for his PR fumbling two punts he very well could have won a super bowl last year. In fact, IMO he has been pretty awesome this year with a 70% COMP and a 104 Passer rating, (61 and 90.07 in 2011 including 6 game winning drives) Most importantly he doesn't throw a ton of picks and could be the perfect short term QB for this run first offense.

Some of those college RP the Twins picked this season could/should be ready by 2015 as well. Though there are obviously still about 1000 questions with that lineup/rotation you mentioned, but it is fun to project what possibly could be!

Benson would not land you anything close to Meyer, his value is about as low as it could be currently. Sure the Twins could have maybe traded Hicks for Meyer, but it would have been a mistake. As nice as 3 years of Span would be, 6+ years of Hicks (for even cheaper overall) is the superior choice to keep for a rebuilding team like the Twins. It should be noted that Hicks has a greater upside then Span had/has as he is a better fielder, has more speed on the basepaths, has more power, has a better arm and a better eye at the plate. The main question with Hicks at this point is will he be able to continue to hit for averag and continue to increase his power.

Yeah, the Nats are a really easy team to root for. Hopefully we can meet them in the world series in a couple years.

I'm not so sure what is so ridiculous about that, if anything it shows how high of value a major league ready #2 has. Gonzalez was one of the best 5 pitchers in the game this year. Span highly likely won't even be one of the top 5 CF in baseball this year (if that is the comparison you are trying to draw)

A lot of valid points here. Let me add my two cents: 1) I believe a lot of people, both GM's and fans, have underrated Span for a long time. While not exceptional in any one category, Span was above average in many. The ability to be decent in the leadoff spot is not just about numbers. It is about professional at-bats, table setting, and providing quality while leading the team in PA. Span does all of these things. His ability to play CF and low salary make him a wanted asset. 2) Span could easily have been one of the nucleus for the next wave. More prospects burn out than excel. While we hope that the Hicks, Rosario, Buxton, et. al. group comes up and produces, the reality is that only 2-3 of them will have any real impact in the majors. Span is a proven MLB commodity that should still have a number of quality years left. 3) I like the fact the Twins are looking more toward a hopeful 1-2, than another sure 4-5. I think it shows the Twins are willing to take a few risks, something they have been generally averse to in the past. I'm not sure this was exactly how I would have like to see it. I would have like to seen an additional MLB ready #4-5 starter, along with Meyer, to help the team today as well. 4) Why is everybody convinced Parmalee will be productive at a major league level? He has not exactly torn it up for the Twins in the past. I think odds are better Hicks will be out there before him. This smells of a typical TR move, reminiscent of Pierzynski or Knoblauch. Trading a vet for low minors guys, "knowing" they will help you in the future. While we won't have an answer for a few years, I tend to give TR the benefit of the doubt on these types of moves. Span is the type of player that Twins fan's tend to gravitate to. Hard working, better than average, no public dust ups, by all account a stand up guy. I for one will be sorry to see him go. 1. Valid points, but keep in mind the leadoff hitter often times is only the leadoff hitter once in a game. While "proffesional at bats" certainly are meaningful, at the end of the day if you are a table setter your first and only job should be to get on base (which Span was good/very good, but not great at) 2. Good point, now if the Twins only had Hicks or Arcia and a bunch of long shots behind them I would be more inclined to agree. The Twins in fact have 3 very good CF prospects, the odds of at least one of them producing at a high level is pretty good. Especially when Hicks and Arica have shown success as high as AA. This isn't even factoring in Revere, who I am not high on but at least has the potential to be a solid stop gap in the meantime. One thing I do know is that the Twins had next to zero high upside pitching in the minors, one of which had TJS and the other pretty much just turned 18. You deal from a strength and build up your weaknesses IMO (10 fold if your weakness is SP) 3. I mean, yeah, I think we all would prefer more then less, but in reality Span just didn't have that kind of value. A guy who has #5 type upside really doesn't excite me as the Twins are still loaded with those in the minors it seems. (or if they aren't they surely will be again soon) Also I haven't seen anyone actually say who the Nationals should have also included, just a lot of "oh another prospect" or "another pitcher" if someone were to throw some names out there we could maybe all discuss it. 4. I don't think anyone is convinced he is a sure thing, nor have I heard anyone claim he is. Though he has certainly earned himself a look based on three things: A strong MLB stint in 2011. A dominant AAA season last year, and somewhat solid production after his recall to the Majors in late August. (.753 OPS- not world beating, but showed improveent) You are right though, there is a chance that Hicks could be a regular before Parmelee. But in that case, we still have Revere (and Arcia +more in the wings) and Revere is at least a decent stop gap and you can always find a corner OF with pop on the FA market for somewhat cheap (see: Willingham and Doumit)

:roll: Please attempt to add substance to the forum I'm digging the irony.

Where are people getting this 3 years from? Sickels himself says he could be ready come next season. People understand the difference between college starters and HS starters right? There is no reason why Meyer shouldn't spend the majority of this season in AA with a shot at AAA towards the end. If he keeps doing what he has been doing he will be with the Twins come June 2014.

:roll:

A guy who has a chance to become our best in house pitcher since Matt Garza is "nothing"? They also added a bit of payroll flexibility and opened up Arcia and Hicks (both of who could be better then Span) paths to the majors.

Yeah, that simply isn't true nor will you provide one shred of evidence stating such. There is no need to provide any more shreds of evidence, it's already ubiquitously abundant, from the Twins own mouths and actions. Trying not to violate policy here. One trade of a player does not make for a salary dump. No FA signings when there have not yet been any significant FA signings does not mean the Twins are not going to spend any money. So what kind of thought process leads to jokin's statement? Its not even worth responding to him. I got reprimanded earlier for pointing out his "shenanigans" (After he went and cried to the site owners lol) Clearly the Twins dumping an effective player who was scheduled to make $5 million is "salary dumping" plain and simple meanwhile they hold onto Willingham, Mauer and Morneau who are scheduled to make about 50 million in 2013. Is there an ignore feature on this site? Serious question.

Keep in mind its still very early in the off-season, no real 1st or 2nd tier pitchers have even been signed yet, and really there hasn't been a ton of chatter out yet anyways. Has there been any real rumors yet about Grienke, Sanchez, Jackson, Marcum? I don't recall seeing any. I'd prefer the Twins sign 3 solid pitchers or trade for them this off-season, but even if they get two they still at least look better then last year. It just depends on who the two are of course. I still think you can at the end of the day count on at least Gibson and Diamond next year, with one of Hendriks/DeDuno/Walters sticking around as a #5 as well.