Cory Engelhardt

You are right, we the fans don't know. I can look at stats and see that throughout his entire minor and major league career, Rogers has been death to lefties and awful against righties. That does not mean that he won't learn something new and become a good starting pitcher at some point. And I certainly know I will never be asked to make that decision. I do think it is interesting that you want to play the kids (Turner and Garver) over Murphy, who is younger than Turner and only 4 months younger than Garvey. Murphy has a much better track record than either of those two, and at least we know Murphy can play defense at least at backup level in MLB. Wanting a legit starter upgrade isn't crazy though, especially with a young pitching staff.

I get playing the kids. I do think they need a starting catcher, but I can agree with the rest of what you put. - That said, I will absolutely not understand AT ALL if the Twins don't trade Dozier this offseason. He is clearly at the peak of his value, and because they won't (and shouldn't) resign him to a longer deal, he isn't going to be with the team in 2 years. The longer he is with the team over the next 2 years, the less he will be worth in trade. I see almost no scenario where keeping him is valued higher than trading him, even if it is for lower level prospects. - And Taylor Rogers as a starter? He is Brian Duensing 2.0. The next right handed hitter he gets out will be his first. Keep him in the bullpen where he thrives. Gibson, Berrios, May, Santiago and Duffey would all work in your scenario over Rogers, but I think at least 1 starter is brought in from the outside, especially with a Brian Dozier trade. - Lastly, I do think the coaching staff will be completely new by 2018, or for certain 2019. But, just numbers wise, if they do go out and fire EVERYONE on the staff, who do they bring in for every position right away? It's not like current pitching coaches or hitting coaches on major league rosters leave their current jobs to make a lateral move. Some coaches will be back, not all, but throwing up your hands and firing everyone just to fire them doesn't make sense either.

Villar showed more power last year than he has EVER shown in the minors, and is pretty far below average defensively. I'm NOT saying he is Danny Santana 2.0, but I wouldn't overpay for him, especially if the Twins are trying to get better on defense.

Danny Santana will turn 26 in a month. I don't view him as a prospect, or even a talent. If you can get ANYTHING for him, you do it. Otherwise, I don't see him on the roster next year as he is out of options and simply isn't all that good. We can disagree on Cozart, that's cool. If Vielma is truly ready to come up, or if Escobar is fully healthy, then shortstop may be covered. I just don't value Palka or Walker the same, but that totally could be players I would regret trading later on. Thanks everyone! This thread is fun, and I love twinsdaily for so many reasons. Among others, having the ability to do this sort of thing.

As far as the Cozart trade; I'm not going into it thinking he will cost a TON to acquire. I'm not trading a top 8 prospect for him by any means. I do think he would help a ton in the runs allowed department for 2017. And if that means Adalberto Mejia or Adam Brett Walker or Daniel Palka (not and) or someone in the 9-15 range, I'd do it for one year. But if the Reds are needing a Stewart/Gonsalves/Gordon/Jay/Kiriloff or anyone under 24 on the current mlb roster, I pass and move on.

I don't know how much, or how little, blame Molitor should have for how a pitcher develops. How much work specifically does Molitor do with any/all pitchers? I always assumed it was Neil Allen and Eddie Guardado in the majors, and their minor league coaches/development staff in the minors. If Molitor has more influence currently over how a pitcher is developed over time, I'd like to learn more about that. Does anyone know, what is the development process currently like? I know it is going to be changing with new leadership, and I'm excited for those possibilities.

Agreed, Grossman is bad in the OF. I wouldn't want him out there for more than an inning either. But his bat, and on base ability, is certainly useful. I'd DH him against lefties, and I'd certainly keep his bench spot for him over someone like Danny Santana, who I don't understand in what capacity he actually helps a major league roster.

I think the hope would be that their minor league prospects can develop and be more prepared going forward. On top of that, having a good defensive catcher, as well as an upgrade at SS and 2B (Polanco is probably a better defender up the middle than Brian Dozier is) will help the current staff a ton. That said, there is not much out there on the free agent market this offseason, as well as acquiring good starting pitching that is already major league quality is extremely difficult as every team wants/needs more pitching. I think 2017 we need to hope for some bounce back from Gibson (for sure) as well as May in the rotation, and then begin to develop good pitching over time. That said, if people know of quality starting pitching that can be acquired without mortgaging the lineup pieces we already are building around, I am all ears.

But, Molitor may only be here for 2017. The way pitchers are going to be coached and developed is going to change with new front office leadership. That is what Falvey will help with. And no, most pitching prospects don't work out. But just because it wasn't working with the now old coaching doesn't mean it will continue to not work. Make sense?

I am by NO means giving up on 2017. I'm NOT saying they are going to throw in the towel. Not at all. Building a new pitching rotation will take time though, and it won't be ready overnight. And really, they could make no moves and probably win 70 games next year, just because some of what happened this year was bad luck. But to get back to even .500 will take some time, no doubt. - What I did with this was build a roster (theorhetically) that would be ready opening day. My plan would be that throughout 2017, Tyler Jay, Stephen Gonsalves, Kohl Stewart, a pitcher they get from a Dozier trade, other prospects that step up etc. all can start getting their feet wet. If a rookie pitcher takes off (which can happen) great, but I'm thinking that the young arms coming up through the system will be more ready to really be rotation stalwarts come 2018 and beyond. At least that is my hope. I'm not banking on the Santiago's and Santana's and Gibson's to be on the team and leading the rotation in 2018 and beyond. That's why I was saying, let Falvey do his thing and start to mold the pitching staff so 2018 and beyond it can start to be a strength.

1) Santiago is what he is; a solid 4/5. I do not think they non-tender him. If he is the 6th best pitcher (which could happen, if the Twins are lucky with health, which they almost never are) they certainly could get something for him. Most teams want any level of reliability with pitching. I agree. 2) And yes, I will say, if Escobar comes back healthy and is playing defense like he was in 2015, then SS isn't a need. He just was not playing like that this year, which is why I was thinking we need to look elsewhere. I don't know if Polanco is a SS in the big leagues, but if they don't trade Dozier, and keep Polanco at SS (which could happen) I don't see how runs allowed changes all that much. 3) Mauer isn't going anywhere. I just don't know that the Twins can depend on him to be a full time 1B any longer. If they can play him at 1st maybe once or twice per week, and otherwise be a bench bat and DH against righties, I think that is the best way to keep him healthy and keep his bat in the lineup a majority of the time. Even if he doesn't have power like he did pre-injuries, he still takes good at bats and gets on base. That is definitely something our lineup could use more of. 4) I don't think Castro is an all star. Heck, I don't know if he is more than a 9 hitter at this point. He is a very good pitch framer, which is something that Suzuki is terrible at. I'd be all about signing someone else, or using prospects to trade for a AA/AAA catcher who is ready to start (Austin Barnes of the Dodgers comes to mind.) They definitely need an upgrade there. 5) Thoughts on Brett Cecil? Do people see a likelihood of a "splash" (for lack of a better word) on a bullpen guy? That isn't really something Ryan and company would do, but maybe that could change?

No, obviously Buxton isn't a finished product. But he is only 22 and is already gold glove level on defense, -'d is faster than anyone in the game. Who would they acquire that you would feel good about playing over their probable most valuable (in terms of fwar) player next year (after a Dozier trade?)

Also, you just said that you saw into the future and the Twins aren't winning in 2017, so they should trade Santana, yet now you advocate for signing a 30+ year old catcher or outfielder to a big contract? Those two ideas don't mix too well. You are right; if I were gm I would not sign someone to a deal that forfeits our pick this year. More I was supporting that's person's thought.

I'd be all about really giving a good deal to someone and forfeiting the 2nd round pick if it meant bringing in someone special to help. Ramos and Wieters may fit that bill. Desmond has truly been amazing this year, but I wonder what his contract would look like? I like the thinking. I wonder if the front office will make a big 4-5 year offer to anyone right away? They definitely need help at catcher and pitcher, but SS could always use an upgrade, as does outfield. Thanks!

1) Escobar, if he is fully healthy, is totally capable of handling SS. He is not anywhere near the same level defensively as Zack Cozart. I don't know if either are healthy. I'd prefer to have Escobar as the utility guy, but to each their own. 2) Molitor has said it himself, Mauer is probably not a full time player any longer. He can still get on base, but concussions and leg injuries have taken a toll on him. Certainly he can still play 1st base, obviously, but if playing 5-6 days a week in the field hurts his legs, I'd try to keep him as healthy as possible because his bat is still useful. 3) Robbie Grossman, the 280/386/443 Grossman? As a bench bat and occasional fill in DH/OF? Why in the world would you ever get rid of that production? Especially if he bats against mostly lefties or pinch hits? To get rid of him would be ridiculous. 4) Why in the world would you keep Ervin? To win in 2017? The Twins aren't getting to the playoffs in 2017, and when his contract is up after 2018, are you wanting to extend a 36 year old? This one baffles me. 5) Chagois is pitching like one of your best relievers, if not your best reliever, right now. He throws hard, throws strikes, and has at least 2 pitches. You could do a lot worse. Maybe he isn't the closer job, but to ask if he is ready for a bullpen job, when the 9th inning isn't any more stressful than high leverage situations in the 7th (that he can handle) I don't get that thinking. 6) Fragile? I don't get that thinking either. He has pitched more than just about any reliever in baseball, as far as appearances, the last 2 years. If anything he was mismanaged. I'd certainly see what he has as a starter, and his back will probably thank him for throwing every 5 days rather than every day or every other.

What has Byron done to have you not be sold on him?

Here is my first blueprint for 2017. Please rip it to shreds. C Jason Castro (free agent, will probably need a 2 year deal with an option, possibly for 8-10 million per year.) 1 1B Kennys Vargas 2B Jorge Polanco SS Zack Cozart (Trade acquisition) 2 3B Miguel Sano LF Eddie Rosario CF Byron Buxton RF Max Kepler DH Joe Mauer (against righties only) Bench C JR Murphy OF/DH Robbie Grossman (will DH against lefties) IF Eduardo Escobar OF Rajai Davis (Free agent) 3 SP Kyle Gibson Tyler Glasnow (Trade Acquisition) 4 Jose Berrios Trevor May Hector Santiago Bullpen Tyler Duffey TJ House (minor league free agent) 5 Brandon Kintzler JT Chagois (closer) Taylor Rogers Ryan Pressley Brett Cecil (Free Agent) 6 1) Jason Castro has been a catcher for Houston. He will turn 30 next June. This year he hit .210 with a .307 on base (good walk rates) and a .377 slugging. That’s actually pretty much average production for the catcher position across baseball. I sign him because he is a top 5 catcher in terms of framing pitches, and he blocks EVERYTHING in the dirt. In terms of throwing guys out he is average to below average, but it is the framing that would help the pitching staff so much. If he can get 8 more strikes per game than Suzuki could, that could make a ton of difference. 2) Zack Cozart is a defensive whiz from Cincinnati. He will turn 32 next August. He was playing at an all star level last year before injuring his knee, and has been out since August. He is a free agent after 2017, so Cincinnati may not want to trade him at his lowest point (sound familiar?) but he is a top 3-4 defensive shortstop across baseball. He is SO MUCH better than anyone they have had play the position for years that being next to Sano would cut runs allowed a TON. 3) Rajai Davis. He was with Cleveland this year. He is fast, plays good d, has a little bit of pop but mostly he would be here to be the 4th outfielder. I’m thinking Falvey knows a thing about him too, being from Cleveland and all. Having a good defensive outfielder on the bench, or for sure to hit against lefties (instead of Rosario) could be a good thing. 4) Tyler Glasnow is Pittsburgh’s top prospect. He is the #3 prospect in baseball right now, and has a legit shot to be a #1. He is 23 (he’ll turn 24 in August of next year) and this year in the minors he was 8-3 with a 1.96 era, with 144 k’s in his 116 2/3 innings. His biggest problem is his walks, as he also had 68 walks in those innings. He is 6’8”, and has an plus plus fastball with an above average curveball and changeup. He needs some help with his command, but he is the type of guy you ask for in a Dozier trade, which is what I did. He is Pittsburgh’s 3rd best pitcher at the moment, which makes it easier to swallow for them as well. (Cole, Taillon and others, along with that defense, a LOT of pitchers look better than they really are with Pittsburgh.) 5) TJ House, minor league free agent lefty from Cleveland. He will turn 29 in August of next year. He has started and relieved in the past. Hopefully Falvey would look for someone like this. He has good strikeout rates in the minors and hasn’t had the best of shots in the majors outside of injury. As a minor league free agent, you have nothing to lose. 6) Brett Cecil, free agent lefty from Toronto. He will turn 31 in July of next year. He has been the Blue Jay’s best lefty for the past few years, and he probably won’t be cheap for a bullpen guy. But he averages 11 k’s per 9, and under 2 walks per 9. He pretty much always has an era in the 2 range, and would be a legit setup or closer on most teams. I almost think he could be our free agent splash (even over the catcher) as bullpen is easier to fix than the rotation, at least quickly. 7) I didn’t mention Ervin Santana. I traded Ervin to the Blue Jays. They almost got him at the deadline, and I think those talks could pick up again. They have a potential future ace who pitched at Fort Myers level last year named Sean Reid-Foley. He just turned 21 on August 30. He has an above average fastball, slider and an an average changeup. He is 6’3” 220 and last year in the minors (between low A and hi A) he went 10-5 with a 2.81 era, in 115 innings he struck out 130 and only walked 38, giving up 78 hits. He is the #76 prospect in baseball, which is slightly higher than Gonsalves. He would be at AA Chattanooga next year. I also think Toronto would/could give up Vlad Guerrero Jr (yup, that one) who will turn 18 next March. He is probably a 3B/1B/OF at some point. He is years away, but he is a top prospect in the Appalachian league, and he obviously has bloodlines. He would play at Elizabethton, and possibly Cedar Rapids, next year. 8) I didn’t mention Plouffe. I don’t think he is back. I also think if Hughes shows up and can contribute, you switch him out with Santiago. I’m not expecting Hughes or Perkins to be back right away (or at all, compared to what they used to be) and I’m putting Mauer as the primary DH because that can keep him healthiest. He at least can get on base, right?

Cleaning out the front office will take some time. The Cubs article on here a few days ago said as much. Come 2019 Falvey will probably have his guys in place, but for 2017, keeping a lot of the guys together makes some sense.

Any chance of signing SS/3B Lourdes Gurriel? Probably not, but he could help. Talented and young, and wouldn't have to give up anything but money.

I think we would have to sign Cozart for 2018 ongoing (his contract is up after 2017.) He is coming off an injury filled 2016, and even though his first half was really good into and after the all star break, Cincinnati may not want to trade when his value is at his lowest. I know the Mariners almost got him at the deadline for what was rumored a top 7 pick of theirs (their system is not highly regarded, to say the least) so if it took a top 8 or 10 prospect from the Twins (think maybe Adalberto Mejia?) I'd think about it with the knowledge we are strongly increasing our infield defense for 2017.

Zack Cozart could be had from Cincinnati. He would fill that elite defensive shortstop role very well.

I have a feeling that Randy Rosario is much further down on your top 50 than he would be on others. Otherwise, great list and fun to read about all of the players.

Yeah, it was crap. Let the kid learn. He wasn't going THAT badly, and it's not like the Twins are needing to win all of the games at the end of the year. Plus, to pull him (if you are trying to win the game) and then continue to bunt as OFTEN as you can (which is still a waste) does not add up either. Ugh

I always love reading these. Thank you for these, they are definitely appreciated.

I don't know. He may not be getting a 5 year 100 million dollar deal anymore. But he will probably be ready close to the start of the season next year. That certainly isn't going to change his 5 year deal for teams to a 1 year deal. I just don't see it. I think a team could still offer a 4 year deal and get a pretty good player. Maybe not for April 2017 right away, but probably for May 2017 ongoing. What's the harm in that?