Jim H

Thank you for this. I enjoyed the read. One question I wish you would of asked is whether the Twins have changed their philosophy in regard to drafting pitchers. I don't really think they have, very much. What I think is happening is that college coaches are using their best arms in relief, a lot more than they used to. I suspect that there are many reasons for that, but the one that comes to mind is that rather than locking your best arm in a rotation, you can use him more flexiably as a reliever. Thus you could, maybe save on the arm a bit, but still have him available for more critical situations. He wouldn't necessarily pitch a lot fewer innings either. Thus the Twins taking more power arms might be more taking guys with a little less wear and tear on their arms. Since they are being used in shorter stints, maybe they are showing a little more velocity. Kind of like Perkins going from a soft tossing lefty starter, to a hard throwing reliever.

Durability is certainly important. It is largely what put Blyleven in the Hall of Fame. He hardly ever went to the All Star game, never came close to a Cy Young, only won 20 games once during an era when there were many 20 game winners a year. Certainly, the strikeouts and shutouts were important, but equally talented comptemporaries didn't make the Hall because they weren't as durable as Blyleven. Now, we aren't taking about Blylevens here, but if Ryan believes Corriea and Pelfrey are likely to be more durable than roughly equilivent, equally available, and similarily affordable options, then yes, it made sense to target them. The real problem for us, is we don't really know who was really available to the Twins. We also don't necessarilly agree on roughly equilivent, and probably don't care about affordable. It is also true that likely more durable, doesn't mean will be more durable.

Many years ago now, a guy from my home town was selected in the late rounds of the draft by the Cinncinati Reds. He had had a 4 year career at a small college and was sent to a short season league. He proceeded to win the batting title that summer, so they sent him to winter instructionals in Florida. The hitting instructor decided to change his swing. Naturally, he struggled with that for the next 2 years and then was released. There is 2 ways to look at this. Changing someone's natural swing isn't likely to be an easy thing and has a good chance of not working very well. On the other hand, if you don't have much chance of getting to the majors with your natural swing, there isn't a lot to lose.

Oh, I understand saber stats, but I think people need to understand that baseball is a team game. Your stats ARE dependent on teammates. You can try, but you really can't completely take the team out of individual stats. Especially pitching stats where how well you pitch is very much influenced by what the other 8 guys on the field do or don't do. And even when you make the perfect pitch and every teammate does what he should, it can still go wrong when the opposing hitter bloops one in or is just better than you on that particular pitch. It is important also to recognize that saber stats have as many weaknesses as traditional stats. Just different sorts of weaknesses. A stat like FIP will naturally favor power/strikeout pitchers because it focuses largely on when the ball is not hit. I don't really think that is a very realistic way to look at pitching. The other thing is the attempt to create new stats tend to back my point. Many times we feel that players are better or maybe worse than their numbers so people are out there trying to find new ways to measure results. Maybe it is better to say that stats are an inperfect reflection of what happens on the field.

I hope Sano develops into more of an all around hitter. Power is what you get paid for and it is the wow factor, but a good hitter who hits home runs is better. Cabrera is a nice comp but not many hitters combine his ability to hit for average with power to that degree. It is probably a bit unfair to expect that out of Sano but I do hope he can learn to make more contact/improve his line drive rate, and cut down on his strikeouts. At this point I am not to worried about his eventual big league position. If his hit tool is good enough, you will find a place for him to play. Sometimes that can be influenced by what others do or the direction of the front office. If Plouffe becomes a good defensive 3B with consistent power, well RF or 1B could be a better fit for Sano. Certainly what the Twins decide to do with Morneau could be a factor, as well how Parmelee does in RF or if he goes to 1B or if he is the one traded. Since Sano needs time to develop his hitting, I suspect the right thing to do to find out if he can be adequate at 3B.

One other guy who may of helped his stock this winter was Colabello(sp?). It is hard to think of someone 29 as a prospect, and his ceiling is not considered to be high. Still, he was very good in Mexico, and may have some slight chance of being the 25th guy on the roster, or perhaps be a call up during the season.

The phrase "better than his numbers" was a recent quote by Terry Ryan concerning newly acquired starter Kevin Correia. Now, I admit I have no idea whether Correia is "better than his numbers". I don't remember having seen him pitch and I haven't followed his career. The question for me is, is any pitcher "better than his numbers"? It is an interesting question for many reasons. A large part of discussion about Jack Morris' suitability for the Hall of Fame centers around this question. Many of his supporters suggest that the numbers or at least the traditional numbers, understate his value. Certainly, we have all seen a game where a pitcher was "better than his numbers". Occasionally we will see a pitcher give up a bunch of runs in an inning where there were no well hit balls and every hit seemed to perfectly but softly placed in the right spot. Many pitchers seem to pitch better than their secondary numbers suggest they should, at least for a while. Sometimes for a long while. Blackburn, despite the vitrol sent his way in the blogsphere, was largely the Twins best pitcher for 2 years. Till injuries set in or the league caught up to him, depending on your point of view. I always felt that Brad Radke was better than his numbers throughout his pretty long career. His numbers were solid, but generally suggested a good but not quite a front line starter. My thought is that Radke generally gave the Twins 25 or more starts a year where he gave his team a good chance to win. Quality starts, I suppose. Unfortunately he also had 2 or 3 starts a year where he was putrid. Six or more runs in 3 or less innings. It spoke to, I suppose how fine a line he walked to be a effective major league pitcher without dominant stuff. What those few extremely bad starts did, was take very good stats and make them pretty ordinary. It happened to him every year. Because he never strung together dominant performances like a Santana, his solid, very good pitching got diluted by a few bad starts. Clearly, even close observers often take in to account certain factors and conclude that certain pitchers were "better than their numbers". Ferguson Jenkins is a good example of this. He was elected to the Hall of Fame despite having slightly inferior numbers to many of his peers. It was thought that the handicap of pitching in Wrigley Field and often playing before an inferior team, depressed his numbers. So it was concluded that Ferguson was indeed Hall of Fame worthy despite his numbers. So, what does all of this mean? Well it could mean that some prominant bloggers are wrong about Correia. Perhaps, he is one of those pitchers who is "better than his numbers" and will provide useful pitching even if his end of the year numbers don't look that good. Or perhaps he is actually what his numbers suggest, a number 5 starter holding place until someone better comes along. I certainly don't know, but I will look forward to seeing whether Terry Ryan is right about him.

The phrase "better than his numbers" was a recent quote by Terry Ryan concerning newly acquired starter Kevin Correia. Now, I admit I have no idea whether Correia is "better than his numbers". I don't remember having seen him pitch and I haven't followed his career. The question for me is, is any pitcher "better than his numbers"? It is an interesting question for many reasons. A large part of discussion about Jack Morris' suitability for the Hall of Fame centers around this question. Many of his supporters suggest that the numbers or at least the traditional numbers, understate his value. Certainly, we have all seen a game where a pitcher was "better than his numbers". Occasionally we will see a pitcher give up a bunch of runs in an inning where there were no well hit balls and every hit seemed to perfectly but softly placed in the right spot. Many pitchers seem to pitch better than their secondary numbers suggest they should, at least for a while. Sometimes for a long while. Blackburn, despite the vitrol sent his way in the blogsphere, was largely the Twins best pitcher for 2 years. Till injuries set in or the league caught up to him, depending on your point of view. I always felt that Brad Radke was better than his numbers throughout his pretty long career. His numbers were solid, but generally suggested a good but not quite a front line starter. My thought is that Radke generally gave the Twins 25 or more starts a year where he gave his team a good chance to win. Quality starts, I suppose. Unfortunately he also had 2 or 3 starts a year where he was putrid. Six or more runs in 3 or less innings. It spoke to, I suppose how fine a line he walked to be a effective major league pitcher without dominant stuff. What those few extremely bad starts did, was take very good stats and make them pretty ordinary. It happened to him every year. Because he never strung together dominant performances like a Santana, his solid, very good pitching got diluted by a few bad starts. Clearly, even close observers often take in to account certain factors and conclude that certain pitchers were "better than their numbers". Ferguson Jenkins is a good example of this. He was elected to the Hall of Fame despite having slightly inferior numbers to many of his peers. It was thought that the handicap of pitching in Wrigley Field and often playing before an inferior team, depressed his numbers. So it was concluded that Ferguson was indeed Hall of Fame worthy despite his numbers. So, what does all of this mean? Well it could mean that some prominant bloggers are wrong about Correia. Perhaps, he is one of those pitchers who is "better than his numbers" and will provide useful pitching even if his end of the year numbers don't look that good. Or perhaps he is actually what his numbers suggest, a number 5 starter holding place until someone better comes along. I certainly don't know, but I will look forward to seeing whether Terry Ryan is right about him.

"Florimon reminds me of Greg Gagne at that age, who could barely get the bat on the ball, but he could sure get his glove on it. And when he got leather on it, he made outs. That is the promise of Florimon. I'm not saying he will be the next Greg Gagne. But he has a chance to fill the position until Santana or Polanco are ready to take over. " Quote from cmathewson Florimon doesn't really remind me of Gagne. Gagne was younger and actually showed promise of a good bat while making a lot of errors and not showing the range he later exhibited. There was even talk of moving Gagne to 3B to take advantage of his bat and because some thought he really wasn't a shortstop. Gagne's bat never really developed, although he had his moments and often started the season well but seemed to wear down. Florimon is quite a bit older than Gagne was as a rookie. Florimon actually may have better tools than Gagne although I doubt if I am a good one to judge that. It just seems that he should be more consistent defensively than he is, since he is already in his mid twenties. I would be happy if settles in as a superior defensive shortstop, and can get over the Mendoza line as a hitter. I am not sure that will happen, however.

I too am surprised that Ryan didn't acquire a shortstop over the winter. It seems that He believes that Florimon or Dozier can fill that job. Clearly Carroll seemed to prove that utility man should be how he is used and there is no indication that Escobar is much more than an utility option. I would be happy if Florimon could provide the kind of superior defense he showed flashes of, but I am a bit doubtful that will be the case. If the Twins have said, I haven't heard it, but I assume there will a competition between Dozier and Florimon for the shortstop job. If Florimon wins it, Dozier may be slid over to 2nd. But realistically I don't know if either is a major league starting middle infielder.

One of the advantages of being a free agent is you have at least some choice where you end up playing. It is fine to speculate on what it would take to lure certain free agents to play in Minnesota, but I suspect it depends on the free agent. Some would like to come to Minnesota "all other things being equal" some would not. Saying you have to "overpay" to lure top free agents to Minnesota, may be true in some cases, but probably isn't universally true. What I think is true, is that Ryan makes his own evaluations, based on what his scouts and other advisors tell him. Clearly, his evaluations don't always dovetail with what many experts and bloggers believe. I don't believe he was willing to give some of the so called medium tier free agents what other GM's were willing to give, and I expect that in a few cases he may of made competitive offers and those free agents decided to take a similar offer elsewhere. I also don't believe that Twins don't leak much information about contract offers and such to the media. Such leaks occur in other at other points, such as agents or maybe personnel in other organizations. How accurate that type of information is, depends on what you want to believe, in some cases. Personally, I think a lot of these guys will turn out to be "overpaid" in the sense that their performance will not come very close to matching their cost, and there will have been "bargains" out of this group of free agents who will perform quite well for the money paid. Trying to perdict which will be which, which many are doing, isn't likely to be very accurate. I just hope Ryan managed to get a "bargain" or 2.

During Hrbek's career, there were 2 things that got in the way of a remarkable career. Parker described the one. The other was, Hrbek came to the majors with a beautiful naural swing. He could hit for average and was strong and big enough to hit home runs as well. Partly, I think, to satisfy the public, Hrbek changed his swing to be more of a pull hitter. He was trying, I suppose, to be more of a Killebrew type hitter. I don't know if that was the best career move for him. I think he would of been able to hit enough home runs to satisfy most fans and keep his average much higher by using the whole field. Still, he certainly had a fine career, and I think enjoyed playing in his home state and being the home town hero.

First, it is not even clear that Hicks is ready to play in the majors. His AA numbers were not dominating, and it has already been pointed out he has not played in AAA at all. He maybe ready defensively, but again he hasn't played above AA, so it is certainly likely he may have something to learn on that side of the ball as well. Second, spring training will likely determine whether he begins the year in the majors, but it won't all be about stats. How he goes about his work, the kind of at bats he takes, how he reacts to this opportunity, and how well Benson and Mastroianni are doing those same things, will probably be the determining factors. I don't think the Twins are going to worry about Super Two, and they may not care that much about the extra year of team control either. They probably don't want yo-yo a top prospect back and forth from the majors to the minors, however. So if Hicks is a bit shaky this spring, no matter what the stats say, he may very well begin the year in the minors. Some at bats in AAA won't hurt him, and giving Mastro and/or Benson a real opportunity to show what they could do as starter may not hurt either.

What do you suppose "normal" turnover is? I suspect that in the 4 years since your list, the Twins have signed between 80 and 100 pitchers from the drafts and international signings. Obviously a number of minor league free agents have been signed as well. I think the Twins have been hurt by a large number of injuries during this time. Clearly your point that not enough pitchers have developed into quality major leaguers is a valid one. But I am not sure that just looking at the number of pitchers from the spring of 2009 and checking on how many remain in the organization really tells you anything.

I am not really in favor of trading Morneau. It is not that easy to find middle of the order bats and Morneau is still young enough to be one for a long time if he can stay healthy. We don't really know if we have a replacement as a middle of the order bat either. Parmelee may turn into a very useful player but there is no way to know at this point what kind of big league hitter he will be. Since money really should not be an issue, the Twins may very well consider signing Morneau to a multi-year contract depending on how he plays and how other people develop this year. I also expect Morneau to have a better year this year as well.

I enjoy these lists and don't really know enough about the prospects to comment, much. Still, I have a question about Vargas. My understanding about him is that he is a bit old for the level, has outstanding power but a bit of a slow bat and is not much defensively. He seems a little high on this rating. I tend to agree with you on the rest of the prospects. I am a bit excited about Salcedo, he seems like he could be a solid big league starter, someday.

Shane, to be a little less snarky. It is not just my opinion that Carroll is a below average fielder. If Carroll was viewed by major league talent evaluators as an above average fielder at shortstop, he would of held down a regular starting shortstop job for the last ten years instead being a utility man. His offense has been average or above for a middle infielder. If he was even average defensively he would of been starter. Look at guys like Adam Everett who started for years. Defense at short is the defining issue. Carroll clearly isn't that good defensively. Gardy would of left him at short or brought him back when Dozier struggled if Carroll were even an average big league shortstop.

Shane, I have no confidence in defensive stats, for any number of reasons. If the defensive stats say Carroll is above average especially at short, that is still one more reason to distrust them. More importantly, Carroll's production isn't likely to stand up to being a regular. If he is used as a utility guy, 3-4 times a week, he will stay fresher both offensively and defensively. I don't much care if he is used at the top of the lineup, when he is in the lineup, but I really think I would put Dozier there. With the choice right now, Dozier will likely start at either short or 2nd. Let him bat 2nd if he does. While I think roster speculation is interesting, there are so many variables and even possible additions or subtractions between now and spring training, that I doubt things will work out much like any of us suspect. The starting pitching breakdown and centerfield should be the most interesting.

Don't understand the Carroll thing. He is not really above average anywhere any more. He certainly isn't above average at short. He is a utility infielder and still pretty good at it. That is where he should be. If Florimon or Dozier aren't the answer at short, and they may not be, than you go elsewhere to find one. I wouldn't waste much time plugging Carroll in there. I am sort of surprised that the Twins haven't/apparently aren't going to get a solid middle infielder. It seems to indicate that they think either Florimon or Dozier can be a decent shortstop.

While I tend to agree with Old Nurse on WAR, I think even you believers in WAR are missing something here. It is very hard to predict what pitchers will do. WAR or all pitching stats really, are not predictive. The Twins staff in 2010 was good enough(I have no idea what their collective WAR was) to be major contributors to a 95 win team. Virtually the same staff was considerably poorer in 2011 and contributed almost nothing in 2012. Also consider, last year at this time, nobody was predicting(including WAR) what Diamond went on to produce in 2012. What Ryan is trying to do is put together a staff that by any measure(use WAR if you like) has some chance of being league average. He is well aware that some of those will fail, which is why there are so many options. Now, this stragedy has a fair chance of failing, I think Ryan has acknowledged this. Part of the reason for this is that there is little chance of the assembled staff to be better than league average. If that is your upside...... I am supportive of this stragedy because I don't think that by buying the higher priced, longer termed options actually much increases the staff's chances of being better than league average. Whether that is true or not, Ryan has acquired some higher upside pitching options, when added to the potentially higher sided options already in the system, gives a great deal of hope for the future. So getting back to the topic presented. Ryan is assembling a group of starters for 2012 that we all hope can be league average. He is avoiding any long committment that might inhibit assembling an above average staff in the future. Given where things were, I believe that is the right path.

"Will he pitch to a $13 million level? Maybe not, but there's little chance he'll pitch below a $10 million dollar value either. He's safe and besides, he's proven to be a very tradable commodity"Quote from Nick You don't think he will pitch below a $10 million level? I don't think he has ever been more than a back of a rotation pitcher. Is that really worth $10 million per year? You are right about him being tradable. I just wonder why he his previous teams were so willing to get rid of him. I certainly want the Twins to sign some free agent pitchers. While I suppose Jackson isn't the worst pitcher out there, he certainly is likely to be overpriced and I think overvalued. I rather hope that if the Twins sign a pitcher or pitchers to a multi-year deal, it is somebody likely to be more consistent and frankly better than Jackson.

It is true he isn't Blackburn, but he hasn't been any better than Blackburn's 2 good seasons, either. You have to wonder why a guy with his kind of stuff doesn't put up better numbers. You also have to notice that one year is all anyone seems to want to keep him around for. I guess that if Ryan signs him, especially for 2 years or less, I won't be upset. I won't be very excited either. He is a back of a rotation guy, who has generally eaten up a fair number of innings. I doubt if he is suddenly going to turn into an ace, or even a top of rotation guy. It doesn't seem like he will be a complete bust, either.

One of the things that Ryan does well, generally, is evaluate talent. While I haven't seen enough, at the major league level, to have a lot of confidence in either Florimon or Dozier. At seems that perhaps Ryan has. Clearly, it doesn't seem to be a priority to add middle infield talent. It looks to me, like the top of the order will be pretty weak to start the season. I expect Hicks still needs minor league seasoning and even if Benson takes the center field job, that wouldn't address the top of the lineup. Maybe Ryan thinks that Mastroianni and some combination of Dozier, Carroll, Plouffe, can fill the 1st 2 spots in the order. I actually hope so, or you are going to with about 4 darn weak bats in a row somewhere in the order.

While I wouldn't write off 2013 yet, it is clear that even with good performances from whoever is picked up to fill out the rotation, a lot of other things will have to go very well for the Twins to be competitive. Ryan seemed to indicate this afternoon on MLB Network that he is not looking to trade anyone else. That doesn't mean it couldn't happen. I kind of think that the Twins really need to look at Parmelee and Plouffe. They need to show they can actually hit for more than a month during the season. Plouffe needs to show he can play 3B. If Parmelee is adequate in RF well that helps as well. Keeping Morneau around for a few more seasons wouldn't be a bad thing. I really doubt if Parmelee or Plouffe are ever going to be true middle of the order bats. If Arcia is going to be, it isn't to going be immediately , even if he is nearly ready to play in the majors. Whether the Twins are contenders or not in 2013, I think they have to determine whether Dozier and/or Floriman can actually be big league starters. Quite possibly by the middle of the season the Twins might know who they want to keep out of their secondary pieces. It will make it easier to decide whether or not to trade Willingham or Morneau. And perhaps even more importantly, what they need to target in return.

If Worley and May both are/become quality major league starters, this is a very good trade for the Twins. I do think it shows that many have undervalued Revere. We will see what happens, but Revere can hit and will I think, be a very good player for a good long time. The Twins gave up something to get something. The Twins also must have a fair amount of confidence that Hicks is close to reaching his potential.