Jim H

I am still not sure if I explained my point very well. I hope so. I think that maybe having Butera catch around 30 games means that Mauer and Doumit are less dinged up. That should make them more productive. It might mean that they actually appear in more games(just less at catcher) then they would if Butera were not on the roster. It is certainly possible to dispute that take. I also not sure that even if I am largely right, that it justifies Butera's place on the roster. Still, he may be enough better defensively to justify having him on the roster over Hermann or some other 3rd catcher. The possible contributions of a 2nd utility infielder or a bench bat may be more valuable than keeping Mauer and/or Doumit a little fresher and getting them a few more AB's. Still, I won't be surprised if Butera is back on the 25 man in a month or so.

Since Mauer is the team's best hitter, he needs to be in the lineup as much as possible. Last year Doumit was the team's 5th best hitter so he needs to be in the lineup most of the time as well. It is likely that the best lineup the Twins can field has Mauer at catcher. But he can't catch every game. Mauer will catch as many games as he can, but the goal is to have him in the lineup nearly everyday. Since he can be used at 1B, DH and even RF, you can get him in the lineup as often as he is physically up to it. Having Butera catch, doesn't have to take either Doumit or Mauer out of the lineup. If Morneau needs a day off, Mauer can go to 1B. Doumit can be at DH or even RF. Gardy was actually a bit creative at times last year. Nearly always, one of Mauer or Doumit was in the lineup with Butera, sometimes both. So that is what I mean when I said Butera didn't take AB's from Mauer or Doumit. It is possible that by keeping both fresher, his presence on the roster gave both more AB's than if he wasn't there. Because of their versatility and Gardy's willingness to use them at other positions than just catcher and DH. The other aspect of this is that Butera probably doesn't take AB's from other regulars either. Morneau, Willingham and Parmelee will likely be in the lineup when they are healthy. When they need a day off, or perhaps maybe a tough lefthander is on the mound, Butera catches and Doumit and/or Mauer play in the field. So largely, if not exclusively, Butera took/will take AB's from other backups. Finally, Butera is considered a better defensive catcher than Doumit. The upgrade defensively of playing Butera at catcher over Doumit will, at least to some degree cancel the loss of offense by playing Butera over some other backup. One last point is that Butera doesn't play very often. There certainly could be some considerable benefit to having an extra PH on the bench to hit for the middle infielders late in games. I just suspect that getting more AB's to Doumit and perhaps Mauer by having Butera on the roster could be worth putting up with his lack of offense.

A catcher doesn't need to be hurt for Butera to be called up. I think if Gardy thought he could get by with 11 pitchers, Butera will come up. If a Mauer or Doumit is slighty dinged up, Butera could come up. If Ramirez or Escobar can't find much playing time, Butera comes up. He is more than a Gardy security blanket. His presence means Mauer and Doumit can appear at other positions more often. It means that they can be used optimumly like they were last year, rather than one be forced to catch if they are sore, or slightly dinged or there is an opportunity to use them in the field. It is also doubtfully that his presence actually hurts the team much. It probably means that Doumit and maybe even Mauer get more AB's, just not at catcher. Since Butera really only takes catching appearances away from the other 2, and mostly from Doumit, it is likely that the upgrade defensively pretty much cancels the loss in offense that some other 2nd stringer would provide over Butera.

I guess I don't see how using Mauer as a #2 hitter is something new. Gardy has done it before, it just didn't really work all that well, in an admittedly small sample. The truth is it probably doesn't matter much if Mauer bats 2nd or 3rd. I prefer him in the 3rd spot myself. The same 3 guys are going to bat in front of Mauer no matter if he is batting 2nd or 3rd. Just in slightly different order. The big difference is the first inning. Batting Mauer 3rd increases the chance there is a runner on base when Mauer bats in the first inning. I like that because he hits extremely well with runners on base.

Thrylos, there is a difference striking 144 times in in low A ball and doing it at the majors. It is also fair to note that Sano only hit about 240 in low A ball as well. No one is doubting that he is a great prospect, I doubt however, that he is anywhere near ready to play in the majors. That could change quickly, like it did with Hicks, but it could take a couple of years as well. Lets see what he does at Fort Myers, after this year, I think we will have a much better idea about whether he can survive at 3B, and how soon his bat will be major league ready.

On TV today Anderson said that Deduno hurt himself pitching in the rain in his last WBC start. Watching that game, he had trouble, his plant foot was slipping on the wet mound. Yes, he is not on the 40 man roster so he doesn't need to be optioned.

At this point it is up to Benson. Willingham's and Parmelee's best position is DH. If Benson plays well at AAA, his chance will come. There is room for Arcia and Benson if they show that they deserve it. Even if the Twins decide to keep Morneau. The best case scenario for the Twins is if Willingham, Parmelee and Morneau all play well. Arcia and Benson play well at AAA and improve on their weak areas. At that point the Twins have all sorts of options. They could entertain offers on all 5. They could resign Morneau, trade Willingham or Parmelee. They could even trade Arcia or Benson if the offer is good enough and they are willing to put up with weaker outfield defense. I don't think Benson is out of chances. He will have to show he deserves more, but he is talented enough that he will likely get looks somewhere, even if the Twins give up on him.

I rather doubt this. You are not going to hamstring your manager in this way, plus I doubt if Willingham had enough leverage to make that sort of demand. This is an interesting topic, however. The Twins have 3 guys; Willingham, Parmelee, and Doumit, whose best position is DH. Parmelee can probably play 1B adequately, but he isn't nearly to Morneau's level. If Arcia and Benson can develop to the point where they can cover Willingham and Parmelee's offense, they make the team much better because of their defense. People have been talking about trading Morneau for awhile, but if he shows good health, I think the Twins will make a strong effort to resign him. Perhaps even during the season. That would make either Parmelee or Willingham trade bait. I don't imagine things will go down this way, Arcia and Benson aren't sure things, Morneau likely will opt for free agency. Nevertheless, Arcia and Benson having good years would definitely give the Twins some options that haven't really been available the last couple years.

I agree with Physics Guy, the Twins aren't going to sign Betancourt, why would anybody really think they would? I think it is time for the games to start. To much idle speculation.

Willingham and Doumit are both DH's but you can't put both there at the same time. It is up to Arcia or/and Benson to force Willingham to DH or perhaps force the Twins to trade him. Parmelee clearly made it easier for the Twins to trade 2 CF's by hitting like he did at AAA. We will see how it plays out, but having Willingham, Parmelee and Doumit as the primary corner OF's will hurt the defense. Hopefully the offense makes up for it.

I remember several years ago when Matt Garza was in the minors, there was a mini controvercy over him not using his secondary pitches in the minors. The Twins wanted him to work on them, he felt he didn't need them to get minor league hitters out, so he threw mostly fastballs. It is interesting on how many pitches a pitcher needs to succeed in the majors. Blyleven said last night that he only had 2. Santana had 3 but usually only used 2. Silva, when he first came to the Twins, really only had one. Mariano Rivera only throws his fastball, though of course he is a reliever. I think it depends. It depends on how good your pitches are. If you have a great fastball, and a good secondary pitch such as slider or curve, you can probably get by with that. Most pitchers likely need 3 pitches to succeed in the majors, if none are truly dominant. I also suspect that you often learn or develop that 3rd pitch if you get to majors and find out you can't get by with 2. That is what happened to Radke, who developed his changeup after he got to the majors.

I have followed the 4 major founders of this site, pretty much since each started their own blog. When they started this site, I was glad in the sense that now I could go to one place to find good Twins content. I was also worried that I would have to wade through a lot of crap to get to the good content. Many of the discussions that followed posts on the old sites generated better content than the original post(no insult intended). That still happens, but too often the comment section gets hijacked by the kind of stuff that the moderators are trying to control. Keep it up moderators, there is no harm in civility and if people have to stop and think a little before hitting the post button, so much the better.

I am actually a bit optimistic about the starting pitching. Worley will likely be alright. Pelfrey has been up and down, pretty predictable for a guy coming off of TJ surgery. He may struggle but he should eventually settle in. I know what everyone thinks of Correia but he will likely hold a spot in the rotation and if he can't, well Gibson should be ready sometime. Among the rest, I like Hendriks, even if he needs some more time in the minors, I think he will be good sometime. Deduno is interesting, maybe he found some control. DeVries is one of those guys who might be better than his stuff. Nobody is going to get too excited about these guys, but they probably aren't any worse than than the bunch that won 95 games 3 years ago.

Last year, Butera was used to catch about 30 games. The 130 AB's he got didn't really come out of either Mauer or Doumit's AB's. Most of those 30 games, either Mauer or Doumit or sometimes both, were in the lineup at DH or some other position. Largely, Butera's AB's come at the expense of some other backup. While that hurts the offense, it is not nearly as much as some people suggest. A second thing to keep in mind is that Butera doesn't really take catching appearances from Mauer either. Mauer is going to catch as many games as his health and productivity allow. So, since Butera's defensive appearances come at the expense of Doumit or some other 3rd catcher, the real question is this--Does Butera superior defensive skills to Doumit or some other 3rd catcher such as Herrman, make up for the rather small loss of offense you get by having Butera on the roster over some other backup? I don't really know the answer to that question. Clearly, Butera is better at most catching skills than Doumit and Herrman at this stage of their careers. Whether his defense is enough better to make up for the dozen or so hits you are going lose by having Butera on the roster, is a rather interesting question.

I have a hard time seeing Benson or Escobar on the major league roster as backups. While that maybe their ceilings, I don't think we can say that for sure, yet. They both need regular AB's and a chance to improve their games, if you believe either can be a major league regular. Having Escobar around as a backup to the utility man(Carroll) doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Benson almost certainly needs regular AB's at this point of his career to be productive. He wouldn't get that as the 5th OF and probably wouldn't as the 4th. I think Butera makes the team. His presence doesn't take AB's from Mauer or Doumit, on the contrary, his presence or somebody like him, probably means those 2 get more AB's. If Butera takes a few AB's from some other backup, which is really the case, that isn't going to hurt the offense that much. I think DeVries makes the team, either as the 5th starter or a long reliever. Although there are ways for Deduno to make the team, he probably begins in AAA. Burnett hasn't pitched himself to AAA, yet, but he better step it up. I think the Twins keep Pressly, his upside is probably higher than Roenicke or Wood and they can't keep all three. I think Robertson goes to AAA and the Twins want to keep Hernandez starting, at least for now, so he goes to AAA as well. As far as comparing MacPhail and Ryan. Ryan did a much better job getting his team to the postseason and having a competitive team year after year. Ryan was/is much better at building a farm system. MacPhail had 2 teams get to the postseason, neither of whom was among the top 10 teams in baseball in those years, by most measures. That those teams won was probably a greater testiment to Kelly's skill as a manager than MacPhail's at roster building. It was another example of getting hot and lucky in the postseason rather than having the best team in the postseason.

I don't really think Vargas is a legitimate prospect at this point. He has a slow bat and will have to prove he can catch up to major league fastballs. Other than power, his other tools are pretty ordinary. He has some chance but I kind of think he will stall out at the AA level. It would be nice if I were wrong, but the Twins have had a lot of prospects like him over the years(Buchanon, Restovich and others). There is a lot of difference between Vargas and Sano beyond the age difference. Sano is a better athlete, and he has a much quicker bat, according to what I have read. It is possible Vargas could develop into a LeCroy or Pedro Munoz. Largely part time guys who do their best work against lefthanders or soft tossing righties.

One thing to keep in mind about prospects, no matter their "ceiling" or their tools, is that it will take some time to see exactly how good they will turn out to be. Cuddyer took about 3 years into his major league career to finally "break out". Parmelee and Plouffe will get an opportunity to be regulars this year, but we really don't know how that will turn out. They may turn into big league backups, solid regulars, stars or they could even go down the Valencia path. I am pretty excited about the Twins minor league prospects, but a lot of that, for me, is that I think there is a lot of depth. Buxton and Sano could be stars, but even if they aren't, there a lot of good prospects in the system right now who could become good major leaguers.

It is hard to fault Tosoni. He was thrown at 3 times. The pitcher and both benches were warned after the 2nd inside pitch. Leon went ahead and drilled Tosoni anyway. I think maybe the manager for Mexico should of went out after the first 2 inside pitches and explained things to his team. That of course, is easy to say in hindsight. The brawl itself was pretty ugly. It is lucky nobody was injured. At least I think nobody was seriously injured.

They call it Spring Training for a reason, they are in training, results don't matter as much as the process. It is really easy to get excited when a talented young CF hits 3 home runs in one game!!! or a talented potentially future ace has several dominant innings!!! Terry Ryan says he doesn't look at spring training stats, I expect for this very reason. They don't mean much especially early in spring training. I expect Meyer will begin somewhere in the minors, it doesn't matter where so much, in part because I doubt if he is really ready for the majors. He could move up very quickly if he dominates in the minors, but don't cut short the process. The Twins have some pitchers like Gibson and Hendriks who probably should be more ready for the majors. Given Hendriks struggles in the majors last year, despite minor league success, I am no hurry to see young pitchers rushed to the big leagues.

I am a little leery of blaming the manager and coaches for Liriano's failures. I notice that the White Sox couldn't fix Liriano either. Unlike many, I don't think Liriano was/is a head case either. I think he just couldn't manage his mechanics, repeat his delivery or whatever you want to call it. After his surgery, he lost some velocity and maybe some of the bite on his slider. He couldn't compensate by learning to locate his pitches better, and couldn't get by just rearing back and throwing harder. It is possible somebody will "fix" Liriano, but more likely he just continue to be very inconsistent. As far as giving him a 2 year contract, I really can't understand why anyone would do that, especially the Twins who have watched him pitch for the last 4 years. I guess it goes to show how desperate teams are for pitching and how pitchers with good stuff are in demand even when they have shown they can't control their stuff.

It is surprising how few truly good offensive shortstops there have been over the last 30 years. There might be several reasons for that, often good offensive shortstops get moved to other positions and I think that the defensive requirements for shortstop are so exacting that finding someone that meets those requirements and is an outstanding offensive player is even more rare than I had assumed. Of the 3 "best" shortstops in Twins history Vesailles and Smalley were more offensively oriented and Gagne turned out to be more of a defensive shortstop. Once Versailles stopped hitting, he was soon out of baseball. Smalley was eventually moved off of shortstop as a fulltime position. As you pointed out above Gagne was not particularily a great hitter.

Brad, I appreciate the amount of work you have put into this. Unfortunately, you already know my feelings about WAR. To this point, I don't think you have really showed us anything we didn't already "know". The relative values of WAR don't necessarily mean much, you have already explained why. We already knew that really good middle infielders and catchers are hard to find, especially ones who are consistently good for multiple years. I suspect what your next study will show is that, with a few very rare exceptions, most of the value of the better middle infielders will come from defense. That will be especially true of shortstops. Since we are relying on UZR for that, that will make some of those conclusions unreliable. At least in my opinion. Still, I appreciate your work. I might appreciate it more if it was strickly an offensive examination, and if you had used more traditional stats. Nevertheless, I appreciate what you are trying to show.

"Yeah, I was in the camp for Gausman or Appel over Buxton as well. I'm not sure the whole BPA thing was clear either. Sickles gave Gausman a higher grade than Buxton, and I suspect he'd have done the same with Appel. Both of those guys were putting up 1/2 type numbers against competition that was closer to A+/AA. I think the move wasn't the brightest. Granted they weren't passing up on a Strasberg or Harper type guy to get Buxton, but with the ceilings on all being nice, the obvious need, and the fact that those guys were a lot closer, I'm still rather miffed about this one." QUOTE FROM DIEHARDTWINSFAN I don't know if Glausman or Appel would of been a better pick than Buxton, but the idea that any college conference is better competition than even Rookie level ball is just wrong. There are very talented college players but most of them are freshmen or sophomores. There are polished college players but most of them are older and not talented enough to get drafted. A Rookie league team such Elizabethan, will have those same young talented college guys, just a year older. The rest of the roster will be 4 year college guys who got drafted, and high school kids or international signings who are very talented or have some experience, or they would be playing in the Gulf Coast league. There is certainly much more talent at Elizabethan than any college team out there. They are also more experienced, generally. I have read many posters who equate college ball with lower minor league ball, but I just don't think that is a realistic comparsion. There are a few college teams with multiple future high draft choices, but most of the roster will not be drafted at all.

I don't see much sense in adding Thome at this point in his career. He can't play the field. He can't run. He can't pinch hit if doesn't get regular at AB's at DH. If he DH's he takes AB's from better hitters. The Twins likely need a RH pinch hitter more than a left handed one anyway. I don't think that a 4 man bench really allows the Twins to carry someone as limited as Thome. I suspect that if he gets enough AB's he will hit some homeruns, but other than that he really isn't a good hitter anymore. I don't think he will hit enough homeruns to offset the low average and the need for a pinchrunner if he does get on base.

I guess I don't see how Thome really helps a team anymore. He can't play the field at all. He can't run at all. If doesn't get regular AB's at DH he can't pinch hit. If he gets regular AB's at DH he will be taking them from a better hitter. On top of that the Twins probably need a RH pinch hitter more than a left handed one. One other thing, CMath, I don't see how Clement has the most upside. None of them have a lot, but Clement really doesn't have much value now that he doesn't catch anymore.