Jim H
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Everything posted by Jim H
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I don't really understand why some of you seem to think Herrmann was being held back at AA. He hit less than 280 with modest power(10 HR). While he might be a better hitter than Rivera, Towles or Butera, he hardly dominated with his bat. One of the things the Twins seemed to want to accomplish with Herrmann was get him an extended look at catcher. Which they accomplished. Since he really doesn't seem to be a likely big league starter at any position, I expect for him to actually make a major league roster, he will have to be reasonably accomplished defsively at more than one position. It would also be nice if he could hold his own with the bat. Having a little offense in a backup catcher is a nice bonus, but a backup catcher better be a good defensive catcher. I don't really think Herrmann is likely that, at this point, he really hasn't caught much. He could be a very useful backup at some point, but I suspect he is likely a good year or more away from the majors.
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It sort of seems that right now everyone wants to bash the Twins front office, particularly Ryan whether there is a good reason or not. I can certainly see the need to look at Perdomo and Escobar. Perdomo throws harder than Slama and seems to have more compelling stuff. The principle weakness of both is control. Since 40 man roster spots could be at a premium this winter, it probably makes sense to look at the guy you know less about. Perdomo is probably fighting for one of those spots. Escobar is supposed to be a premium defender. I think it is probably important to be sure that is true at the major league level. Whether or not he is a starter likely depends on his bat, but you won't be able to determine that with a September callup. Especially with a 22 year old. I think calling up Dozier right now, especially if he won't play, is counter productive. So yes, lets get Escobar and Perdomo some playing time, maybe they will be part of the future for the Twins. Maybe it can be determined that they can't be. More likely it will be somewhere in between. I suspect the Twins have watched both Dozier and Slama pretty closely the last few years. They should have a pretty good idea what their ceilings are, and what they need to do to reach them. Hopefully they can figure out the same things about Escobar and Perdomo.
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The problem with all of this noise about Slama and other call ups is we really don't know who deserves what or what the thinking is behind the call ups that are made. Maybe, for example, Perdomo is being called up as a last look. They might love his arm and stuff, just want to see if he can find that all important control.(Sort of like Deduno did). There is at least some possibility that Slama hasn't completely recovered from the injuries that disabled him and the Twins don't want him to risk reinjuring himself. There are countless possible reasons for not calling him up, beyond the fact that he is not a top prospect. The problem with this blather is none of us really know. I suppose he could be added to the 40 man this winter, lost in the rule 5 draft or just released. The most likely scenario is that he will remain with the Twins, get a good look in the spring and if he remains healthy and effective will at some point get another big league chance. I think the Twins know what they have in him, which is perhaps part of the reason he was not called up.
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Article: Twins Minor League Hitter of the Month - August
Jim H replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Thanks, for these reports. When you add in the other hitters with nice years to these nine you really see some nice position prospects throughout the system. A little top heavy in outfielders perhaps. There were pitchers with nice years as well, but the injuries to Gibson, Wimmers, Salcedo and others has really limited the number of near ready starters. I hope some the recent draftees can make an impact as starters beyond perhaps Berrios. -
FtMyers: Daniel Santana vs Levi Michaels
Jim H replied to greengoblinrulz's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
the knock on Santana has always been consistency both in the field and at the plate. Seeing strides in those areas or at least at the plate, is encouraging. I don't know if there is any need to protect him on the 40 man roster. I suspect that depends on exactly how good he is defensively. If he can be elite at shortstop defensively, then they will protect him. Otherwise he sounds a bit like a Casilla. That would mean that there is some decision to be made there. I don't know quite what to think of Michael. It sounds like he is solid defensively, maybe more suited to 2nd than short. Even with his improved second half numbers, he certainly didn't dominate at High A. Seeing improvement is important, and he showed some throughout the year, at least statwise. So, he likely begins next year at AA. I think though that he is not the top middle infield talent in the farm system and needs to improve to be more than a utility man. -
Twins Depth/Personnel Chart for 2013
Jim H commented on J-Dog Dungan's blog entry in Blog J-Dog Dungan
No Morneau? Dozier should at least be part of the depth. Capps may be released but I am not so sure that will happen either. I would also add Hicks in somewhere. While he likely won't make the team out of spring training, the Twins will certainly take a close look at him and he could be one of the first OF's called up if need calls. I won't comment on Slama being ranked 3, but until he actually pitches in the majors again, well you know. -
Article: Blind faith vs. evidence and reason
Jim H replied to Shane Wahl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
One last post on this topic. Slama missed 2 months of this season due to injury. He missed a similar amount last season. At least part of the reason he hasn't gotten big league opportunities is because he has been unavailable for at least 1/3 of the last 2 minor league seasons. You can't pitch in the majors if you can't pitch in the minors. I have not paid much attention to the Slama/Gray discussion because I really don't think Gray has anything to do with Slama not pitching in the majors. But if you have to compare the two, well they have similar control(control being the major problem for Gray). Gray throws harder and is said to have better stuff, which having watched both only on TV, it seems likely or at least it looks that way on TV. Slama has managed better strikeout rates in the minors, but has a similar home run rate. Slama's deceptive delivery may help him but I really don't see any huge likelyhood that he is going to be a lot more effective than Gray. It could happen and really it would be good for the Twins if he was, but it really isn't all that likely. If Slama is going to be effective in the majors, his control has to be much better than it has been in the past. Otherwise he is Jeff Gray, more or less. Now he may "deserve" an opportunity, and if he can stay healthy, he will likely get another one. Again and finally, he isn't any victim of a conspiracy, he isn't being held back because someone doesn't like him, he isn't a victim of faulty evaluation. To pitch in the majors, since he is unlikely to improve either his velocity or his stuff, he must stay healthy and demonstrate improved control. That's it. -
Article: Blind faith vs. evidence and reason
Jim H replied to Shane Wahl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Actually, it seems to me that the original post and many of the following posts are less about Slama, and more about an opportunity to bash the Twins organization. I wish Slama well and hope he gets an opportunity to prove himself, but there is no conspiracy to keep him out of the majors. Keep in mind that when he was pitching well early in the season nearly everyone(including Gray) was pitching well in the Twins bullpen. Then Slama was hurt for 2 months. I would guess he needs to prove he can remain healthy and effective, especially since he is not on the 40 man roster. I have heard this kind of complaint before concerning many minor leaguers in the midst of a hot streak. Generally they get their opportunity. Sometimes they do well, many times they do not. It is a little difficult to understand all the fire and brimstone over what is a pretty marginal prospect. Right now he would be the 12th or rather the 13th man on the pitching staff. I hope he does well when/if he gets promoted, but lets temper some of the over the top crap, I mean level headed analysis going on here. -
Article: Blind faith vs. evidence and reason
Jim H replied to Shane Wahl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
As a side note, I don't care for this style of writing. It reminds of Aaron Gleeman. There are clear reasons why the Twins have not promoted Slama. Now you don't have to agree with them, but when you don't address them or even acknowledge that they are there, you reduce the credibility of your post. -
Article: Blind faith vs. evidence and reason
Jim H replied to Shane Wahl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Sorry for misspelling Waldrop. -
Article: Blind faith vs. evidence and reason
Jim H replied to Shane Wahl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
If you are going to write articles like this, it is only fair to note that Slama has missed large chunks of both this year and last year. I suspect the Twins do indeed view him as a one inning guy. Max effort, uses a lot pitches per inning, been hurt a lot, has control issues. If you run him out there for 3 innings, he is likely unavailable for nearly a week. Those factors help explain why Waltrip was called up instead of Slama. It is also fair to note that when he was dropped from the 40 man roster, nobody claimed him. He isn't a top prospect. That doesn't mean he can't succeed in the majors, and I hope he does. I just think that no great injustice is being done here. -
Twins Hitters Who Could Contribute to Playoff Team in the Future
Jim H commented on Brad Swanson's blog entry in Kevin Slowey was Framed!
If you are building for 2014, you are likely leaving some names out of the discussion. Certainly Hicks should be in the conversation, perhaps 3-4 others currently at AA and perhaps some guys at Single-A like Michael. I also agree with some of what you say, though I don't know that I consider contending in 2013 and building for the future, mutually exclusively. It is likely quite possible to do both. The problem with trading or getting rid of everyone who is unlikely to contribute in 2014 or beyond is you may very well force kids on to the major league roster who don't belong there. I saw too much of that in the 90's. There was little in that, that would make me think that unready players develop faster by being overmatched at the major league level. The other problem with trading all your tradeable players who aren't a definite part of the future, is that most of them aren't really all that tradeable. Look at the Boston deal, unless the players to be named are special, Boston didn't get much and gave up $11 million besides. -
I wouldn't mind seeing Slama up this September but some of you conspiracy theorists who claim to follow the minors very closely, you realize that Slama has been hurt for large portions of the last 2(this year and 20ll) seasons? Also when he has been healthy and effective, there has been little immediate need for his skills. In addition to that, he appears to be largely a one inning reliever(based on how he has been used in the minors and the fact he throws a lot of pitches in each appearance). That would tend to limit his opportunities at the big league level. For example in the latest call up the Twins brought up Waltrip because he is more of a multi-inning type reliever. Slama will likely need to used as a one inning specialist or a guy to get righthanders out in the 6th-7th or 8th innings. Every team in baseball had a chance to claim Slama when he was removed from the 40 man roster. That doesn't mean he doesn't deserve an opportunity, but it does mean he isn't a prized prospect. Slama will likely get another opportunity to pitch in the majors, perhaps with the Twins, perhaps not. Some marginal guys do succeed in the majors and I hope Slama is one them, but I do not think there is some sort of goofy conspiracy by Twins brass to kkep him out of the majors.
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Article: Dozier's Disastrous Rookie Season
Jim H replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I don't think Dozier was a disaster either. I also think it far too early to decide he is a utility player. He is really no worse than Bartlett was in his first go round with the Twins. An interesting question is why send him down now? My take on the answer is Ryan is trying to figure out what he has for next year. Florimon is probably not the answer as the starting SS but if he is even a temporary answer or a potential utility man, well that is one less thing to look for this off season. Assuming they still view Dozier as the medium term solution at short, then maybe they don't add a middle infielder or they target a 2b and let Florimon/Carroll handle short until Dozier is really ready. Ryan has indicated that he thinks there is more to fix than just starting pitching. He hasn't been all that specific on what he thinks needs changing/fixing. I am beginning to think that while he won't blow up the team, he will make more significant changes than just sign a couple of free agent pitchers. -
Gleeman: Where Will Twins Find Room for Chris Parmelee?
Jim H replied to John Bonnes's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I hate to agree with Gleeman, but I do think that the Twins will open up a spot for Parmelee. The goal is probably more to acquire a starting pitcher, however. I also wish people would stop talking about how bad the Capps trade was at least until Ramos proves he can stay healthy, and hit and field well enough to be better than a big league backup. Now of which he has done to this point. I suspect that Ryan will keep his options open. He may prefer to trade Morneau or perhaps Span but to get the right starting pitcher it may take a different sort of deal. It is certainly possible to trade Willingham, Parmelee or Revere. The market for Morneau is probably pretty limited because of his salary, injury history and only one year left of his contract. The market for Span is likely wider but there would probably be teams who would prefer Revere or prehaps even Hicks or Arcia with the right combination of prospects. Personally, I think that Ryan will keep his prospects and ultimately trade one of Morneau, Span or maybe Willingham. It would go against his usual way of doing things to package up prospects for an established pitcher. Also the Twins will need cheap productive players to fit around their core players. -
I tend to agree with most of the comments on this thread. I don't think they sign Pavano. Make an effort to sign Baker. I never understand what people see in Edwin Jackson. He appears to be a right handed version of Liriano, maybe more durable, not any more consistent. I would like to see them take a run at Grienke. It probably is more about the years then what he would cost per year. Given that Grienke is pretty unlikely, I would like to see them acquire 2 proven starters plus Baker. I mid-level 1 year contract free agent and maybe a somewhat younger guy acquired in trade. I have no idea how feasible that is, but Diamond and perhaps Hendriks and Hermsen potentially filling the backend of the rotation at some point, you could have some depth in 2013. Even if they resign Baker, I don't know that you can count on either him or Gibson to be able to contribute during the whole season.
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Article: Friday Night Minor League Lights
Jim H replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I see these kind of comments a lot. People used to say siimilar things about Bartlett, Cuddyer early in his major league career, and many others. I don't think this is true very often and not particularly relevant even if it is. The Twins are perhaps a bit fussier than other organizations about personnel behavior and fitting in than other organizations. Even if that is true, it is generally about performance. If you perform, you will get your chance. Slama and Benson have both gotten chances in the majors. Neither did particlarly well in those chances. It is clear both will likely get more chances. Still using your example above, a hot couple weeks doesn't really erase a half season of poor play in Benson's case. Consistency is important. In Slama's case 2 things have to happen. His stuff isn't good enough to let him pitch around a lot walks at the major league level. The other thing is he has to be healthy, which he hasn't consistently been, for 2 years. I have said in the past that major league clubs will play an ax murderer if he is good enough. While that isn't true, you can be all kinds of jerk, or make all kinds of bad personal discussions and still get more chances. You can find examples of that in the Twins organization. -
Article: The Elephant in the Room
Jim H replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Actually, I think the Twins signed Mauer with the idea he would be very productive throughout his contract. I think that is fairly likely, given reasonably good health. He likely won't be close to an everyday catcher, but he will likely not be a liability defensively wherever he plays. His approach and general batting ability will allow him to maintain a high on base percentage even toward the end of his contract. What I think is interesting is that the Twins seem to have a pretty good stockpile of potentially productive everyday players throughout the farm system. Some like Parmelee are ready now, some probably won't be major league ready for 5 years. A few may turn out to be high impact players, though most won't. What is good, is that the Twins should have fairly productive, fairly low cost options at most?-many? positions over the next 10 years. Possible surpluses at some positions may yield trade possibilities. Pitching is so volatile that it is often impossible to predict what you will have from year to year. But you can also rebuild pitching faster-if you ar lucky-because generally pitching develops faster than position players. Largely, I think that the Twins have positioned themselves to be very competitive over the next ten years. Certailnly the Twins seem to have more talent in place than they seemed to in 2000, when the Twins were poised to make a nice 10 year run. -
Article: Offensively, Twins Remain Uneven
Jim H replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I agree that there are areas that need improvement besides pitching. I don't if your chart really clarifies things or not. A lot of the issues center around the infield both offensively and defensively. Is Plouffe the real thing? The power seems to be there. He looked ok defensively for a guy who hadn't really played 3rd much. I still wonder if he can hit for enough average. I like Dozier. I believe he will be good enough defensively and offensively to hold shortstop down for a few years. A bigger question is 2B. Carroll is a utility infielder. Casilla has played himself off the team. Nishioka seems to be going that direction, again. There is nobody else remotely close to the big leagues to be excited about. I think that if you believe that the last few are the real Morneau, which I kind of do, then 1B is in very good shape. It would be very easy to get excited about next year if the Twins can acquire a couple of front line starters this winter. Of course, they have to do it without trading away too much offense. -
I suspect part of the reason for the Valencia trade at this time, was to free up room on the 40 man roster. There are (I think) 2 guys on the 60 day DL who will have to be added back to the 40 man roster when the Twins bring them back to the majors. I believe the 40 man is full with Deduno and Fien being added. Since both of them could be lost if removed from the 40 man roster and both are pitching well, I suspect Ryan was looking for ways to open room on the roster. Valencia probably didn't figure in the long range plans. Get something for him. Especially something that doesn't have to be added to the roster.
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I really do expect the Twins to upgrade the pitching staff next year. How they do it, trade or FA signing I don't know. I have no clue either who they might target. Stilll, I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of guys. I don't expect Pavano back, and Baker is kind of iffy. He won't likely be ready at the beginning of the year and who knows what it will cost to sign him. They won't try very hard to go after Liriano either if he is a free agent. Blackburn will be back, I think. I don't know that, that is a bad thing. He is not that expensive and he has certainly contributed as much as Baker or Liriano, when healthy. Diamond will be in the rotation, anyone else in the system is speculation at this point. I think Hendriks could be good. Gibson, they will have to be careful with. Everyone else is likely a step below Blackburn. I have hopes for Bromberg but he kind of went backwards this year. Hermsen is probably going to be pretty good, but I doubt if he will be quite ready next year.
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I agree with this. I don't think the Twins think they have the answer for the next ten years. Dozier must improve his consistency. But, as I mentioned before, that is generally the way it is with many young shortstops. Bartlett made many spectacular plays for the Twins, but it took him awhile to achieve much consistency. In fact he managed to mess up a number of pretty routine plays for Tampa Bay, which may be part of the reason(along with money and injuries) why they didn't consider him a core player and traded him. Gagne had high error totals as well during his first couple seasons. I like what we have seen of Dozier, so far. If this is as good as it gets, well thats not very good. But I expect him to smooth out the defense, with the possibility of becoming a top of the order hitter. The thought by an earilier poster that he could become a 2nd baseman is a real possibilty as well. But I think he will be good enough to hold down shortstop until/if a higher impact shortstop works his way through the system.
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Deduno has been fun to watch. Like most of you, I don't expect that much going forward. Control is a skill/talent just like throwing hard, or making a ball move. I doubt if his control problems are solely related to his fastball moving too much. There must be mechanial issues mixed in there. If you are still trying to resolve those issues at age 29, well that is not really a good sign. It is possible that he could make an effective reliever, though I believe other organizations have tried him there. Many relievers are a bit like Deduno, good stuff, throws hard, control issues. He certainly is not unique in haviing his fastball move a lot with no real idea how it is going to move from pitch to pitch. LaTroy Hawkins was like that when he came to the majors. But, Hawkins was a lot younger and clearly figured that out very quickly.
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Some interesting thoughts/questions on this post. I am not too sure about some of the procedures surrounding the waiver wire so I find some of this interesting. I know that a lot of teams put players on the waiver wire to gauge interest and set themselves up for hypothical trades even if they don't expect them to happen. I wasn't aware that teams put all/most of the 40 man rosters on waivers. Is anyone really sure that happens? I would think putting star players on the waiver wire would not be done very often. The waiver wire might be "secret" but if Verlander or Jeter or Pujos is on the waiver wire it would get out pretty quick. I doubt if you would find Mauer on the waiver wire. You would think long and hard before trading Mauer and doubt if you could get the best possible deal in a waiver wire trade.
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I tend to agree with Seth on Dozier. He actually has moved thru the Twins system pretty quickly and although he isn't that young, he may of benefited from a little more time at AAA. In any case, he appears to have the tools to play major league SS, and he seems to be improving at the bat and in the field as time goes on. Many people are a little too impatient with young players. Bartlett certainly struggled in his first go round with the Twins. I can remember when writers and others were suggesting that Gagne be moved to 3rd because of his defense and to take advantage of his "bat". While, it takes a little time to be sure of what you have with young players when they first reach the majors, I believe that Dozier is at least a medium term answer at short. There are 2 or 3 guys in A ball or below who could potentially move Dozier off of short. But at least for a few years, I think Dozier will work just fine.

