Jim H

Seth suggested earlier in this thread that the Twins may keep Berrios in extended Spring Training to protect his arm/ limit his innings. I have to confess that I don't entirely understand this. While he is in extended Spring Training he will be pitching on a regular schedule and actually pitching in controlled games. I can understand where you might not want to sent a young Puerto Rican kid up to the Midwest League to pitch in what could be extremely cold conditions in April. I don't think the overall wear and tear on a young man's arm will be a lot different pitching in extended Spring Training or the Midwest League, however.

I don't know what Bud Selig might want but it would be difficult to impose much of revenue sharing when it comes to local revenues such as the local or regional tv revenues. Clearly, large market teams aren't going to want to share, and it is probably in the best interests of the players for salary caps not to be imposed. Penalities such as luxury taxes really don't address the extreme differences in revenue between the big market teams and small market teams. Unfortunately, it can be said that baseball does seem to generate more national interest when large market teams such as the Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers advance deep in the playoffs. Larger ratings in the playoffs and the World Series help generate larger national TV contracts which benefit all teams. I doubt if we will any big push to change the system, unless things change to the point where small and mediun size market teams almost never make the playoffs.

Roger, I doubt if the Twins really signed him to be a catcher, although he may get an invite to spring training to help with all the pitchers. These kind of signings are interesting because it is fun to speculate on the rationale. Was he signed to provide a bat at Rochester? Maybe the Twins think he can still catch and be a potential replacement if injuries befall Mauer or Doumit? Maybe he was signed just as a favor to his agent or see if he can recapture what made him a hot prospect? Most of these type of signings of former high draft picks who were once hot prospects, never really seem to work out all that well. A lot of them are released in spring training or lanquish in AAA for a the whole year and then are released.

Mike, My point is that if Roberts has moved past Ortiz, Morales or Ray as prospect and the Twins believe he needs to at AA, put him there. Even though all 3 of the other guys may be ready for AA, it does no real harm to put one of them back at High A. It might be better to insure that all get enough at bats. None of these guys have dominated at High A, and if one has go down and does dominate, he will be promoted quickly. My basic point is put your best prospects at the level they need to be. Fit everyone else around them. I remember a few years ago, Pat Neshek got as far as AA, and then was sent back to High-A. He proceeded to dominate that level and was quickly promoted. That is always the answer for any prospect, dominate the level you are at and you will be promoted.

One other point about this, sometimes it doesn't matter so much where a prospect plays as much as that he gets to play. I mean you don't want to bury a highly regarded OF as a 4th OF at AA if you can move him back to High-A and let him play everyday. This was implied before in this thread, but I thought I would just say it. During the summer there was a thread complaining about the Twins not promoting a couple of catchers who were hitting well. The problem would of been, the Twins would of ended up with 2 catchers at the same level who they both wanted to be playing nearly everyday. I really have no idea how Ortiz, Morales and Roberts compare as prospects. I do know that Ortiz as played a lot in CF. I think there should be some flexibility here to get the better prospects to the level they should be. I also think that the Twins like to reward performance. So they very well may push Roberts to AA, particularily because of his age and his performance in the AFL.

I suspect that if the Twins feel that Roberts is ready for AA, he will be there. Ray can play 1B or be a DH unless someone less needs to be fitted in there. In any case I don't think he is that highly regarded as a prospect. I am not sure Ortiz is either, and Morales has downgraded his status the last couple of years. So, you put your best prospects where they need to be and you fit everyone else in around them. If Ortiz or Morales needs to start the year at Fort Myers because Roberts needs to be at AA and is considered the better prospect right now, so be it.

Trades for Twins could be a bit tricky. While "everyone" is available, if the Twins really want to contend next year, trading more than one or so from the current core will be difficult. There is no one from the farm that is likely to be ready at the beginning of the year and probably can't be relied on for a year or so, maybe. Trading young assets that could be impact players means you better get someone darn good. Look at all the complaining about trading Ramos even though he can't stay healthy and has yet to prove that he can either hit or defend well enough to be a big league regular. What the Twins really need is for someone to really want one of their "surplus" outfielders. Probably Span, and hopefully that can return a solid, above average starter. I expect you are largely right, the Twins will have to be willing to take on significant salary to improve the starting pitching enough to give them a good chance to be contenders in 2012.

You make some good points, although I have never understood the fascination with Edwin Jackson. who has been a back of the rotation starter his entire career. He may have the stuff and the "potential" to be a top of the rotation starter but he has never pitched to that level consistently. I suspect the Twins will have to sign a free agent to a multi year contract, although I think most bloggers won't be pleased with their choice. They will probably acquire another pitcher with a multi year committment through trade as well. I am not sure that is a real good idea, but largely they have no real choice. I really expect the Twins to have up to 4 starters with at least some major league experience added to their roster or signed to a minor league contract by Feb. 1. As far as your point about the Twins minor league system, there is at least some chance that there could be some other starters from the Twins system knocking on the door to the majors within a year or 2. Wimmers and Salcedo are 2 candidates and their are a couple of guys from the last 2 drafts who could move quickly if they adapt well to being starters. Even a guy like Bromberg and maybe a couple of others who have been around for awhile still have some chance of being useful major league starters. Personally, I think, given a bit of good health, their is more starter talent in the Twins system than most people think.

I think that the Twins might have a couple of guys they would be willing to risk losing if they have to pass them through waivers. With all teams trying to jockey their 40 man rosters around this time of the year, it might also be a good time to do that. I am also a bit surprised they protected that many.

What I find interesting is that 3 weeks before the end of the regular season, Detriot didn't look like a particularly good example of anything. They looked like a high priced, poorly constructed, under achieving, deeply flawed team about to finish 2nd to a much less talented team. Thanks to a collapse by the White Sox, and a nice post season run, they are now a team to emulate? Give Detriot credit for spending money and having things work out for them, at least in 2012. Whether things will continue to work for them remains to be seen. They could very easily find themselves saddled with injured/unproductive players with unmovable, huge, long term contracts. Sort of like what some people say about the Twins and Mauer. As far as the Twins go, they have gotten into a position where they will have to acquire starting pitching, and much of it will likely come through free agency. That is risky and if you end up handing out large multi year contracts, has a good chance of both not working out due injury or underperformance and making future moves difficult.

The problem with this article is that while spending money should make it easier to be a contender, it sure doesn't guarantee it. Every year high spending teams with impressive looking rosters on paper, don't contend. The Mets seemingly forever, the Rod Sox the last couple years, Miami, the Dodgers, and many others. This is was the first year the Orioles contended much less made the playoffs, even though they nearly always have an impressive payroll. Certainly the last few years Tampa HAS contended while keeping their payroll down. Oakland managed to do that this year. Whether the Twins should spend more money than they do is largely a matter of opinion. I won't join that discussion. It is true that the Twins spent more on payroll the last 2 years than they ever have and had 2 of their worst seasons, ever. In order to successful the Twins need to spend whatever money they choose to spend, wisely. They also need to be a bit luckier as regard to injuries. They need some of their young players to develop a bit quicker. It would really help if Hendriks is the real deal, if Gibson is completely recovered, and if Hermsen is a lot better than people seem to think. Finally, it is too early to decide that the Twins won't spend money or do the things necessary to improve their roster. Wait till Feb. 1 and then write your negative article if you feel the need.

I doubt if anybody is off the table this off-season as far as trades go. Still, I rather doubt if Willingham will be traded. There is no right handed bat close to the majors to replace Willingham and the only other righthanded power would be Plouffe. Unless it turns out that there is no other way to get enough starting pitching, Willinham won't be traded. Especially, if you assume the Twins believe that they can contend this year.

Very good posts on this topic. I have always thought that success, even somewhat marginal success, at higher levels should be given more weight on prospect lists than it usually is. At this point in his career Buxton could not succeed at the big league level. Neither, probably could Sano. On the other hand, it is clear(baring injury) that Hicks and Arcia can or shortly will be able to perform at the big level. Just exactly how good they will be is uncertain but both are going to get real shots at being big league regulars. Buxton's tools suggest he could be a great major league player, but those tools have to be developed. Most of Hicks and Arcia's tools are at least somewhat developed or refined.

One of the problems here is that the term "character issues" covers a wide variety of problems. It can be A J type problems where an abrasive personality is the underlining issue. Or the problems can center around achohol or drugs. Or it could be dedication issues such as being on time, doing the necessary work, etc. Or various combinations of other things. Unless the character issues appear on a police blotter, it is seldom in the club's best interests to make any of this too public. That is the problem here, nobody here is likely to have a very good handle on exactly what the character issues surrounding Escobar or Drew, are. My guess is that the Twins, if they were interested in either one, would do their due diligence. I certainly would not like to make a guess on whether it would be a good move to try to acquire either one. One other thought on this talent vs character debate. Some players perform much more consistently closer to their ultimate talent level than others. I don't know how much that has to do with character, but if you consistently perform at certain level, that can be much more useful than someone who sometimes produces at a very high level but at times doesn't accomplish much. Tom Kelly uses to say that all players "gave away at bats" during the course of a season. I want to be careful in interpretting what he meant by that, but I assume it was important to him that his players did not give away at bats very often. Again, I don't know that character directly enters in here, but people who prepare well, do their work professionally, take their profession seriously, probably have a better chance of performing to their skill level on a regular basis.

I don't really care how much money the Tigers choose to spend. It is a fact that some franchises can/choose to spend more than others. In this case the Tigers just replaced Delmon Young with Torii Hunter spending a lot more money on Hunter than they did on Young. Now, at 37 Hunter is still likely a better all around player than Young. But his offensive numbers aren't likely to be a lot better if he can stay healthy, which isn't a given. I don't think anyone here really wanted Hunter for the Twins at this point of his career for $13 million a year. That Detroit decided to do that, may limit other fixes that they can do this offseason. Even if it does not, their overspending for an aging player will have little effect on whether the Twins make themselves competitive in the Central Division in 2013.

Colabello is a nice story, just like Seth's buddy Chris Coste was. Colabello was brought in to fill a hole in the Twins minor league system. Maybe he will earn a look in the majors but he isn't really in the Twins plans as much more than minor league depth. As said above, a bench role in the majors is likely his ceiling. That doesn't mean he isn't a guy to root for. Occasionally late bloomers stick around the majors for a few years, much like Coste did.

Do you really think this is a steal of a deal for the Cubs? What are realistic expectations for Baker in 2013? Maybe 20-25 starts with pitch limitations on some of them. If you get 40-50% quality starts out of him, that gives you a total of 10 or so quality starts for the year. I don't know if that is a realistic expectation for someone coming off of TJ surgery or not, but if it is, I don't know that I would want to pay at least $5.5 million for 10 quality starts.

I have believed that getting to the playoffs is the goal. I am not surprised at your results. Clearly the "best" regular season team or teams do not seem to have much if any advantage in the postseason. What might be interesting is whether "how" a team is constructed gives any advantage in the postseason. For example, many people have claimed that the Twins need more strikeout pitchers to have more postseason success. Personally, I think having good pitching is important in the post season. Still, having good pitching during the regular season doesn't always translate directly in the postseason. Verlander was great all season and in the postseaon. One bad game helped short circuit Detriot's chances in the World Series, however. This year in the post season, having power pitchers seemed pretty important, till you consider Barry Zito. Last year, St. Louis did well without any real power pitchers in their rotation. I think having good defense in the post season as well as the regular season is important. But, staying with Detriot, they were pretty poor defensively during the regular season. They were better in the post season, at least in terms of making the plays they had too. One other consideration, is a home run hitting team better in the postseason than having more of a high average type team? Does it really matter when Mark Scutaro is one of the top hitters in the post season?

1) Kaat, 2) Santana, 3) Blyleven, 4) Perry, 5) Radke), 6) Goltz, 7) Pascual-probably should be higher especially if you include Washington years, 8) Viola, 9) Nathan, 10) Worthington, Chance, Tapani, Aguilera

We seem to have these debates about promoting prospects all the time. Why did you pick Harper as a comp? Maybe Delmon Young would be a better comp. He was a guy who didn't have a defensive position, was a highly regarded prospect, was promoted very quickly, and has never really come close to fullfilling his promise. Here's the thing. When the Twins have a prospect who deserves to be promoted quickly (Mauer, Kubel), they promote them quickly. I believe Sano may very well be a super prospect, but he had struggles at times last year. His numbers really never screamed Promote Me. I suspect that he begins at Fort Myers next spring. If he dominates, he goes to AA. If he dominates there, he goes to AAA. More likely he moves slower than that, because they won't want to give him more than he can handle. Most times prospects dictate where they play by how they play.

. As it happens I am over 60 and can tell you about age and the workplace. Yes, age isn't going to be cited in the release of the various coaches by the Twins. Clearly, however it is a factor. The coaches are required to do any number of active things from throwing batting practice to hitting fungos, to running/hitting infield, etc. If you have too many coaches who are limited in what they can do, it becomes a problem. I can see the need on the Twins staff for Spanish speaking members and perhaps someone who could be a successor to Gardenhire. Now the Twins aren't going to speak to openly about some of these things, but they likely should of have been addressed gradually over the last few years. Since they weren't, the poor play over the last 2 years offers some justification for doing it now.

Actually, I think some changes in the staff were a bit overdue. In fact, over the years Ryan used to bring a younger guy onto the staff every few years. He would often remove a guy who had gotten a little too old or maybe didn't fit as well as he should, or had left for a different opportunity. This staff had stayed almost intact for a long time. While that has some good points, a little change probably should of happened before now. Clearly, all 3 guys basically fired, were pretty old. While being old shouldn't be an overriding reason for leaving, there are a lot of pretty active things generally required of coaches. Such as pitching batting practice, hitting fungos, etc. There are also communication issues, such as having a Spanish speeching coach, and maybe younger coaches who possibly can relate better to players. My take is Ryan is taking this opportunity get his coaching staff a little younger, perhaps change a little too comfortable mix, and maybe put a man on the staff who could be a reasonable successor to Gardenhire, when he retires/is fired.

Actually, I think the real question here, is there anyone in this group who can play shortstop everyday? The Twins might not be looking for a long term answer, it is possible there is a long term answer in the lower minors, but they sure would like to find an answer to that question for at least a year or two. They might go into spring training with Florimon, Dozier, Escobar, and Carroll if they are reasonably sure one of these guys can handle short at least adequately as an everyday player.

I suspect that the Twins will start 2013 with 3 middle infielders. Carroll is likely to be one of the three. Who the other 2 will be, is anyone's guess at this point. I assume Dozier, Florimon, and Escobar will be candidates to be in that mix and I wouldn't be surprised if Ryan brings in somebody else. I think Carroll is largely best utilized as a utility infielder. Still, if he outplays his competition, than he will play more. It is probably way to early to guess who the starters will be. Largely because I don't think the Twins have any idea yet, whether they will give Florimon, Dozier, and Escobar the chances to win the jobs in spring training, or whether they need to bring in more competition.

Those were nice numbers by Benson, the 2nd time around at New Britian but they sure weren't dominating numbers. If you go back and look at Kubel's numbers at AA you will see dominating numbers. That is why he was promoted so agressively. Cuddyer's numbers at New Britian (the 2nd year) were pretty dominating. My thoughts about this promoting too slowly stuff, is that the player tends to show where he belongs. Hicks is a top prospect, but his numbers last year at Fort Myers didn't scream, Promote Me. Even this year, the numbers are good, and got better, mostly, during the year. Still there isn't anything dominating about them. What the Twins often seem to try to do is put their best prospects at where they seem to belong, filling in with what is largely, well, filler. For example, despite what were largely poor numbers, Plouffe was actually promoted quite agressively till he got to AAA. There he stalled out. Now, hard as is it to believe, Plouffe moght of been promoted TOO agressively. There is no exact science to promoting and developing prospects. Clearly, sometimes prospects are demoted to give them a kick in the pants. That happened after AJ made it the majors for a fall callup. He actually started in AA the next year as wakeup call. We all know that promoting top prospects too aggressively can backfire to various degrees. We saw it closeup with Young and Gomez. Neither was fundementally sound when they reached the majors, and while they weren't necessarily horrible with the Twins, their time here was mostly a disaster, perhaps in part because they had been promoted too agressively.