Jim H

I understand FIP and xFIP, Antony is probably better off not understanding it. I suspect the Twins do understand the effect that defense and the lack of it can have on their pitchers.

Good article, Nick. You laid it out very well. I understand not wanting to compare Sano and Hicks, but I would have thought Hicks should of been more ready for the majors than Sano is likely to be. I am not all that passinate about it, I suspect Sano will be to the majors soon enough, and there are some benefits to keeping him in the minors a little longer, beyond the obvious that he probably isn't really quite ready. Sano is going to be the 3B when he gets to the majors, at least until he proves he can't play there, which probably won't happpen. I would think one important thing that could be found out if Sano stays in the minors, is finding out more about Flouffe. If he could prove he is a serviceable 3B(Say, Casey Blake like-his upside I think) he becomes a pretty valuable trading chip, I would think. We all think that Sano, Rosario, Buxton and perhaps a couple others, are going to be pretty darn good. If that turns out to be true, it would be nice to have some solid pieces around them. Plouffe could be one of them or perhaps a means to get one. I really am not too in to the possible service time issues. They could be very important I imagine, but it is so difficult to guess what is going to happen next year, much 5 years down the road. What I do believe is that there is no big gain to be had by rushing prospects to the majors too quickly. I remember the early 80's and late 90's, as good as some of those players got to be, it really wasn't that much fun watching them learn things they should have known before they got to the majors.

Or maybe Butera has more value than most of you seem to think.

This has turned into a very good thread. Thank you all who presented some interesting ideas. Especially I appreciate AROG thoughts about the Astros and what they preceive the Twins to be doing. I hope at some point the people here at this site can get someone from the Twins international department to explain their philosophy in the international market. It might be quite different from what the Astros seem to think it is. It seems that what the Twins have been doing internationally is working, although with the rules changing it is hard to say if it will continue to work. The Twins work in Europe and Australia seems to reflect their philosphy of finding toolsy kids who need to be coached up. It might make more sense than overpaying for the DR kids that every team is after. In any case I appreciate most of the thoughts expressed on this thread.

I believe that this is factually incorrect. The 3 outfielders getting the bulk of the playing time at Fort Myers are Buxton, J. D. Williams and Kvasnicka. Buxton isn't 24 or 25 and neither is Williams. Kvasnicka is perhaps a special case. He was a high rated prospect whose professional career has been wrecked by injuries. The Twins obtained him this spring with the idea that maybe he could regain his status as solid prospect. The other players perhaps blocking Walker are Vargas and Hicks who share DH and 1B. Interestingly, Buxton, Williams and Hicks all started the year at Cedar Rapids and were promoted ahead of Walker. That doesn't necessarily mean they are better prospects(well Buxton certainly is) but that they were deemed more ready for the next level. The best way to create an opening for Walker would be to promote either Kvasnicka or Vargas. I would suppose that hasn't happened because either they aren't deemed ready for the next level or the Twins don't want to release someone at the next level. I doubt if the non-promotion is a big deal. There isn't much season left, the difference from between Low A and High A isn't that profound, and it is probably more important to have playing time for your best prospects than it is to have them exactly at the right level.

This is about the kind of trade I would of expected. The Twins have been showcasing Carroll, Thomas, and Doumit. Of course Doumit is hurt, but none of these guys seem to fit in future plans so even minimal returns make sense. I don't doubt that the Twins would trade Willingham or Morneau but I rather suspect that they want at least one of those guys back next year. I also think that they would move one of their relievers(maybe Deunsing) if anybody is interested. As much as many seem to want it, I would be a little surprised if they manage to move Correia or Pelfrey.

Mike, I might owe you an apology, I did not mean to get personal in my post, I suspect I was a bit mean. The problem for me in this and many other posts is that it all seems to be a repeat of what has been said before. As I said, I would appreciate specifics rather than a general, "they need to sign top guys". What does that mean? Top guys according to who? Why should I care who BA has as the top ranked guys? Here is one point of view. The Twins have been very active in the international market for many years. Most of those guys have not made any impact, but there is a pretty good list of those who have. More recently, say the last 5 years or maybe a bit longer, the Twins have been extremely busy internationally. They have been a large presence in Venzeula, Dominican Republic and Australia. They have signed prospects from Europe, Korea, Taiwan, South Africa and several other countries. The Twins seem to sign at least a dozen international guys every year. There could be as many 20 on the top 50 lists this winter. More importantly some of them will appear among the top 15 or so. This seems to me to be a rather promising development. It doesn't mean that the Twins don't deserve criticism in the international arena, but it does mean they are doing some things right. Again, I am rather tired of the general complaining about how the Twins don't spend enough money. Be a bit more specific in your criticisms and I will try to appreciate your point of view a bit more.

The real question Mike, is not whether you should pay attention to BA's scouting reports, it is more why are you are assuming the Twins have screwed up? This clearly one of those areas where it will take years before anyone will be able to evaluate the signing made this year. Plus, this year's signing aren't completed yet. On top of that, clearly BA's list should be taken with a grain of salt. Given all that, just why do you jump in with a post lacking in very many specifics, and claim the Twins have screwed up? It is fine to point out things where you believe the Twins have screwed up. But when you do this on a regular basis, as you seem to, I would prefer that it isn't just the usual whining, but something specific that you can point to. I realize this kind of information is not easy to come by and is still more of an opinion than a fact. Unfortunately too much of the criticism of the Twins(not neccesarily by you) is this kind of general bitching. It isn't specific and thus can't easily be refuted, but at the same time it provides no new information and is largely the same general theme "the Twins have money and need to spend more of it". If you can point at specific international player the Twins should of targeted, I would be happy to read about that. If there is some information you have that shows specifically how the Twins have come up short in scouting or some other part of the international scene, I would be interested. I think though that the new rules have been put into place to level the field. I wouldn't be surprised if the aim is to spread the top "prospects" rather evenly among all thirty major league teams with the extra money to used to sign the next tier. Certainly some teams will try to circumvent those rules. Largely, I agree with those posters who are suggesting that it is too early to complain about how the Twins handle the signing of international players.

Interesting thread. Some good points on both sides of the issue. I tend to think he is not really ready for the majors, but that really isn't the key point. I liked the questions about Plouffe. Sano probably isn't better than Plouffe right now, but that really isn't the issue either. We all expect that when Sano gets to the majors for good, he is going to be good, probably even great. Even if he is, he is going to need good pieces around him. Since I suspect Sano isn't really quite ready for the majors, I would just as soon those at bats go to Plouffe, and others like Collabello and Parmelee. I don't think we know yet what Plouffe is going to in the majors. He could be a solid regular, a platoon type guy or a bit player. Give him as much playing as possible at 3rd till Sano gets to the majors. At that point, you make a choice. Maybe you move Plouffe to another position, maybe you move Sano, maybe Plouffe is sort of a super utility guy(he is versatile enough), maybe he is a bench guy, or maybe he is traded. But, give Plouffe as much playing time at 3rd as you can till Sano is ready. Then you can make as informed decision as possible about him. Right now, I would just as soon Sano was not taking major league at bats from anybody else that could become a useful big leaguer for the Twins. I don't believe that they would benefit him that much, till he is closer to major league ready, and I believe they would benefit the Twins in finding out more about Plouffe, and maybe others.

Quote from Mike wants Wins I understand why everyone loves the Rays and the A's right now, but a little prespective would be nice. Are you sure the Rays were trading their guys at their high point value wise or more because they had no choice budget wise? In the case of Garza, they clearly had guys they would rather keep and it looks like the Cubs were willing to overpay for a guy they thought could be an Ace. Even so the Rays would have been a better team for the last 3 years if they could have kept him. The Bartlett trade to San Diego looks good now, but the Rays spent 3 years rotating guys through the shortstop spot, and none of them was as good as Bartlett was. It was likely they would have kept Bartlett if they could of afforded him. The part about platoons is interesting, but don't you think the Rays would rather have one guy you could run out there everyday, rather than platoon? Now the Rays have done a good job managing the situation they are in money wise. But, over the last dozen years they haven't been in the playoffs any more often than the Twins. I wouldn't bet any big money going forward that they will be in the playoffs any more than the Twins over the next dozen years. Clearly, the Twins are attempting to build a core of good young players. We won't know for sure, if they have succeeded for awhile, but I am happy with what they are trying to do. Will I quibble about exactly what choices they make? Of course. But I do think they are tracking the right way.

As far as I understand, and I may not be understanding correctly, Pitch f/x also gives no depth to the strike zone. So the idea that it is accurate within one inch is clearly wrong on the face of it. Home plate is 16 inches deep, where the measurement is taken would clearly effect whether a moving pitch is considered a strike or not according to Pitch f/x.

This seems more about Garza being a jack--s. Most jobs have their own unwritten rules. Learning to deal with them is part of doing the job and being professional. There are a lot of pitchers who don't like being bunted on. Sabathia comes to mind. Getting mad about it is one thing, taking it off the field is another. Garza has great stuff and can be a very good pitcher. This is already his 4th organization, which kind of indicates that being a good teammate has some value to organizations.

Pinto hasn't received the attention that Ramos did moving through the system, and he has been older at each level, as John pointed out. Still, his numbers have been better than Ramos' were and he has been considerably healthier. For all the complaints about trading Ramos, the Nationals haven't seen much of him on the field. I am a bit excited about Pinto as well. The Twins system is fairly well balanced in position players right now, with at least a good prospect at every position. Shortstop is possibly the weakest, and there at least some interesting talents there as well. If Pinto can be an average defensive catcher, and I really don't know that, he becomes a pretty good prospect given his offensive numbers the the last 2 years.

I agree with this. Wanting Ryan to spend money just because everyone believes we have it and should spend it, doesn't make much sense to me either. Now, if you believe this guy will be a large upgrade over what the Twins have at shortstop or some other position we are short of, well then I am all for it. I really think that the focus needs to be pitching, and maybe short term help at one position or another. We don't know what some of the high ceiling prospects are really going to do, but I think the Twins are committed to their prospects as they should be. Spending money on free agents can certainly help a team win. There are numerous examples of this, but most of those spending sprees were shortterm fixes. Even the Yankees best years just happened to coincide when their core was homegrown and in their prime(Jeter, Posada, Williams, Soriano, Riveria etc). I am happy to watch Ryan build a core for the future. I hope he will spend the money when the right moments are there, but I am not going to complain about not spending on marginal upgrades.

I believe that the Twins have changed their scouting and even brought in new people a few years ago beginning with the new scouting director. It hasn't received a ton of attention, but various people have written about it here on this site and others. It seems that some of those changes are reflected in the influx of young talent in the orgaization. Of course some of the talent influx is a result of high draft choices and the supplemental choices of a couple of years ago, as well. As well as the increased spending in the international market. It is easy to forget that scouting is a pretty inexact science. Trying to project what 16, 17, 18 year old kids are going to be like in a few years, is largely guesswork. Also nobody can project injuries, which largely wrecked several years worth of high pitching draft choices for the Twins. While it easy to praise the A's, Rays and other orgaizations it well to remember that they have their down years drafting as well. Part of the reason they always seem to have a lot of good young players is that their budgets won't let them keep their good, established, expensive players; so they are always trading them for more prospects.

Actually, I suspect that other fan bases can be worse than the Twins base, about philosphy. I don't mind this aspect of the Twins fan base. Unfortunately, too often, there are serious comments in threads that resemble this satiric piece.

THE FOLLOWING IS A QUOTE FROM JOKIN

I am having a hard time finding the point in this post or the thread. Correia is not a great pitcher. He has little trade value. The Twins would of been better off with a higher upside pitcher. All of that is probably true. I think it is largely irrevelant. I thought the Twins should of picked up one more free agent in addition to Correia and Pelfrey. In retrospect it is doubtful if that would of have mattered. Very few of the free agents that the Twins had much of a chance of getting would have made any difference to this season. Even Liriano missed the first 6 weeks of the season so his good performance after that probably doesn't help that much. No, the real problem was Worley and Diamond. Both might be very useful into the future but up to now, this season, they have been the biggest issue with the starters. The other issue is the inconsistent offense. Even now, with pretty good starting pitching the offense hasn't consistently been there. Correia was signed to fill a spot in the rotation until enough pitchers get good enough to force him out of it. Up till now, he has done that well enough. He will probably continue to do that. For $10 million over 2 years, well the Twins can afford that. I don't think complaining aabout Correia is very useful any more. The Twins did it. He has pitched largely to or perhaps even a little above expectations. We could just leave it at that. I don't suppose we will.

Good piece. I like what you said here. There is a couple of things that bother me though. First, I think the need for more Latin American coaches and Sano's behavior are or should be separate issues. Sano seems to understand exactly what he did, why the Twins disapprove of this behavior and(since he had gotten in trouble for similar instances before) the likely consequences. If that is not true, the Twins do have even a bigger problem. But assuming that it is true, the Twins had no real choice here, discipline had to be applied. All reports agree with you, Sano is a nice guy. At 20 he is probably a bit of an immature one as well. That doesn't change the need for discipline in this instance. Because Sano is a big part of the future for the Twins the whole thing gets blown up bigger than it should. The Twins have benched various other prospects as well over the last few years. I believe they are fairly consistent about this sort of thing. Whether we are talking about stars or scrubs. White players or minority players. Most pro athletes have big egos. They were all the best on the field or the court before they became pros. Part of what professional organizations have to deal with is getting all these egos to work together and respect each other. I don't think there is any easy answer to that. Especially given the disparate backrounds, differences in bonus money and the fact that the Twins are dealing with a bunch of kids in the minors. I do think the Twins organization takes helping Latin American players and really all players acclimate themselves to pro ball, seriously. Should they/could they do better? The answer is probably yes. At the same time I know they have classes for Latin American athletes and that they have a several Latin American coaches stationed at Fort Myers. It would be nice to know a little more of what they actually do before condemning them for what they do not do. As you suggested above, being a star and being a good guy are not mutually exclusive. I also do not think the Twins are trying to supress personality or curb enthusiam. What they are trying to do is channel it. Puckett, Hrbek, Olivia, Killebrew and many other Twins had plenty of personality. They also acted professionally on the field. Hopefully, that is what will be achieved with these young players as well.

There are several things on this thread that kind of bother me. I want to be careful how I say this because I think all of you are largely right in what you are saying. First, I would tend to be very careful about tying the need for more Latin American coaches to the Sano dust up. They are, or at least should be, very separate issues. If I understand Sano's actions properly(And I may not) Sano understood completely what he was doing, the reasons the Twins don't care for this sort of showboating, and the likely consequences. He had even been involved in a similar situations in the past. Sano is apparently, a very nice young man. He also may also have some maturity issues. In any case when you decide to do something against your organization's rules(whether written or unwritten) you are asking to be disciplined. If the Twins would have decided not to discipline him in that instance, they could very well lose complete control of a whole number of young men in the organization. There was also a statement about Latin American egos on this thread. It was not meant badly, but I think you would find that nearly all professional athletes have very healthy egos. Most professional athletes were largely the best players on the field most days, until they became professionals. One of the problems for pro organizationals is how to bring all those egos together, get them to work together and respect the differences that have to be there from coming from such different backrounds. Now as to the general thoughts on this thread. I believe that the Twins organization takes very seriously the need to help Latin American baseball players acclimate themselves to professional baseball and American society. I know they have classes for young players and a number of Latin American coaches stationed at Fort Myers. Should they/ could they do more? The answer is most likely,yes. But I would like to find out a bit more of what they are doing, now, before I beat them up too much.

I am not sure Deduno will ever completely solve his control problems. Still, I think he can remain effective for awhile. He seems to have a little more control of his mechanics, which generally, is the key to anyone's control. Ideally, a pitcher has great control, great velocity and great stuff. In practice, there are only a few Verlanders. Deduno only has great stuff, but at least he has learned/is learning how to best use it. I like the fact that Deduno is different. Particularly compared to other Twins pitchers. It possibly gives him a bit of an edge over batters that most other pitchers don't have. Since batters don't really face individual pitchers very often, it should help a pitcher to be different from most other pitchers. On a side note, I am not ready to give up on Diamond either. The key for him is his control, he needs to have it over all his pitches to be successful. He was able to do that last year. Maybe he won't be do that ever again, but I am unsure of why that should be true.

QUOTE FROM USAF CHIEF I'd bet the other way. But, I can see why there isn't a lot of confidence that he can continue to do what he has been doing. I just think his stuff is so good, and now that Deduno has figured out how to make it work at the major league level, it should continue to work as long as he is healthy.

This is one place where the Twins do not deserve any criticism. I listened to Dan Barrerio try to play both sides of this issue on the way home from work. There is no real question, this what you should do when anyone, major league or minor league crosses the line. Set him down for a few days. Unless you really liked the behavior of the Manny Rameriez's of this world, I don't understand how anyone can be upset with the Twins, here. The minor leagues is where kids learn how to play like major leaguers. They should also learn how to act like major leaguers. There are exceptions, but baseball players generally act like professionals. Unlike many football players and basketball players. I appreciate that the Twins do more than talk about their players acting professionally. This has nothing to do with curbing personality. Harmon Killebrew, Tony Olivia, Kirby Puckett, Kent Hrbek and many others had plenty of personality, but it didn't keep them from acting professionally on the field. I agree with the previous poster, who said act like you been there before.

I don't think there are any easy answers, or one formula when it comes to protecting young arms. Most of these guys were likely not all that protected in high school and college. Even the relievers were likely used in ways that could make you cringe. As someone pointed out on another thread, innings usage can sometimes tell only part of the story. For instance even in the majors, relievers often warmup without ever getting into a game. Or sometimes they are asked to warmup multiple times before they are put into the game. If this happens 3 or 4 games in a row, it probably tougher on an arm than what a starter on a regular usuage goes through. Even though they haven't pitched many innings. Back in the day, when I umped high school baseball, the amount of pitches some of those kids made could be extremely high, even though the innings weren't that high. 30 or 40 pitches an inning wasn't unusual, thanks to control issues and defense issues. Having a kid pitch 3 times in week wasn't unusual either, because of the way the games were compressed. Just a couple of years ago I watched a high school game where the coach called every pitch from the dugout. In an early spring game(in North Dakota) he let his starter pitch 7 innings and had him throw over half breaking balls. I am sure the kid threw 200 pitches. There isn't much sense out there when it comes to protecting young arms. I doubt if many young pitchers get to the minors without some sort of arm or shoulder damage. All that being said, you do have to pitch to learn how to pitch. I don't think Bert is particularly right about pitch limits and such. But it is a fine line. A college pitcher coming into the minors being limited too much, well it is going to take years for him to build up the arm strength to pitch 200 innings in a season. At some point they have to pitch. In order develop all their pitches. To just learn how to pitch.

I think the following are the most likely to be traded, in large part because they don't figure in the future for the Twins. Doumit, Thomas, Carroll, Duensing, and possibly Burton. Some that you mentioned could be as well. Certainly if the deal is there, Morneau could be traded. None I mentioned are likely to bring a big return, but only Burton and maybe Doumit figure to help much next year and there are possible replacements. Morneau is likely to be traded because of the expiring contract, not so much that there is a ready replacement. I have a hard time seeing Perkins traded, I can't see anyone offering enough to make Ryan let him go. But it could happen, I suppose. It makes little sense to trade Plouffe right now. Sano won't be ready for awhile, Plouffe could easily be worth a lot more if he can establish himself a little more. His versatility means that he can help at different positions if Sano gets to the majors sooner that I expect. Pelfrey could also gather enough interest to be traded. I kind of think that the Twins might just offer him a contract for next year. If he doesn't sign one, he is a little more likely to be traded.