Not sure the answer to this question but scouting has changed so much with technology in the past 25 years, it's a lot easier to hit on picks than it was back in the day. GMs before the 90s wouldn't have even seen most of the 1st rounders before the draft, it was all based on area scouts and hearsay. That being said projectability is super difficult in baseball with limited information. Trout is an example, being a NJ kid his season didn't start until late and he had limited exposure until late in the process. That along with mediocre competition made teams uncomfortable picking him high when it was unclear what he had, there were glimpses but not enough solid assessment at that point. I hope Kirilloff is the same thing being from PA. I do think teams are catching on to northern prospects more than it seemed like in past years