twinsfanstreif

I like your thinking with Giolito, I've been thinking about it and if he slips past the 6th pick no one is going to have the cash to get him signed except us and if he proves to be set on college then we get a similar pick in a potentially better class next year. I also hope McCullers drops that far. I hope we look at a catcher with one of our top 5 picks, if we pass on Zunino I hope we look at Elander, O'Brian, or Plawecki. I like Jankowski too although we don't really need another speedy center fielder. I think we'll reach for Oakes in the 2nd or 3rd, we always make sure to get the best U of M guys a round or 2 early. I hope Smoral's injury drops him to us because he could be a very good one. I think we also look at Brian Johnson, Chris Beck, Andrew Hanley, or Jake Barrett if they drop. In the first round I could also see us looking at Gausman, I'm not super high on him but if he can cut down on the wild pitches he could be a very good starter....or he could be shooter hunt.

It's not that any of these guys won't turn out to be a front line starter, just not Verlander caliber and don't warrant the #2 pick. I believe there are some potential aces later but come with too much risk to take them at #2(Stroman, Fried, Giolito, McCullers, Smoral, and Beck all come to mind). I've never been shy about saying that I could easily be wrong so I'm not claiming to be an expert. Also in that article it only compares Zunino to Ausmus defensively and not offensively. It's hard to compare posey to ausmus because of sample size. But I did some research and I compared Ausmus to Pudge Rodriguez because I feel like that's kind of a best case/worst case for Zunino. I know pudge is a potential hall of fame player but if you're talking impact bat at the catcher position mixed with good defense he's who you look to. The career WAR for Ausmus is 21.4(admittedly higher than I thought, although skewed by a couple of good years with Detroit) over 18 years, an average of 1.18/year. And the career WAR for Pudge is 73.9 over 20 years, an average of 3.7/Year. It's also hard to compare verlander and marquis because their careers aren't over so the numbers aren't skewed by several years of mediocre ball at the end of their careers (interestingly marquis' career WAR average is 1.1, similar to Ausmus). So for a best case scenerio for a guy like Zimmer let's look at a potential hall of fame pitcher who's career is over in John Smoltz, his career WAR is 82.5 over 21 years, an average of 3.9/year. The difference between a HoF caliber catcher and a HoF caliber pitcher isn't that big of a difference. The difference lies in that there are 70 pitchers in the HoF and only 16 catchers in the HoF so they are few and far between, that's why a great catcher is so valued.

I don't understand this, you don't wanna go "safe and buster posey?" He is one of the best young players in the league regardless of the position. I live in Houston and we know what it's like to have Brad Ausmus for a decade. Imagine sweet drew as a starter for the next 8 or so years. Even if Zunino doesn't profile as a #3 or 4 hitter i'd much rather have a buster posey type(.280/.350/.750 with 22 HR and 75 RBIs) than automatic out Ausmus. There's a lot of value there and I'm sure the Rays are kicking themselves for picking the "toolsy" high schooler who was supposed to be the "next A-rod" rather than posey. Now they're stuck with Jose Molina until he gets too old and then who? I want a verlander type too but don't kid yourself, there's not one in this draft, we'd be lucky if one of these college guys turns out to be a Jared Weaver, Jon Garland, or Berry Zito, not bad, just not the ace type we'd be expecting. The only pitcher who profiles as a true dominant ace is Giolito. He is probably the only one in this draft that could at one point be considered the best player in the league, no one else really has that potential.

The problem is that this year there is not a David price, strasburg, or even a Cole at the top. I've mentioned before that it's like the orioles taking Matuz instead of buster posey In 2008 which was a bad move. Also there really isn't that much of a difference between the guys at the top like Appel or Zimmer and the guys that could fall to us at 32 like Hanley, beck, or Brian Johnson. There however is a big difference between Zunino and Elander.

Height/Weight: 6' 7", 220 lb. Position: RHP Born: November 19, 1989 in Palmdale, California, US (Age 22) Drafted: 2008 30th round out of Palmdale HS Stats: Baseball Reference, MiLB.Com This year: 5 G, 9.1 IP, 2-0, 0.96 ERA, 7 H, 1 ER, 0 HR, 2 BB, 10 K, 0.964 WHIP, .206 BAA Rankings: Baseball America has him at #30 Summery: Known for being Jason Kubel's brother in law. In 2008 I said that there was 1 big sleeper in that draft and it was Michael Tonkin(I hung around the ESPN boards at the time). He was rated as a top 100 prospect by many news outlets but fell to the 30th round because of him being raw and many thought he was a hard sign away from USC(Here's his draft profile). We signed him for $230,000 and it's been worth every penny(I know, I'm really proud of myself for being right about a late round guy, it doesn't happen much). As a ground ball guy with a big fastball he could become a very good setup guy or a closer(best case). Positives: He's a big framed guy with a good fastball(around 95 MPH from what I've heard), After his move to the bullpen his strikeout totals have been really good, his control seems pretty good with decently low walks, he doesn't really give up home runs. Concerns: He's been hittable athough it doesn't affect his ERA, It looks as though he's figured some things out but guys as tall as Tonkin tend to have trouble with their mechanics

I agree with you on upside but lots also drop off(see: Hunt, Shooter). This year garret cole has had a problem with giving up a bunch of hits though and he was better in college than anyone this year. I agree that Zimmer has the most upside but he also has the biggest potential to bust. He would be my choice though if we went college pitcher. Gausman scares me a little although he could be the next nolan ryan(same wind up, electric fastball, lots of walks) and Appel is over rated(mark my words he will just be an average major leaguer at best). I've said it before but I'm still not sold on buxton. I'm actually warming a bunch on Stroman, he's gonna make a lot of teams sorry that they passed on him. I'm still sold on Zunino though. I'm really interested in the supplemental round and the 2nd too. I know we'll get TJ Oakes at some point but I wonder if someone will drop to us like McCullers, Smoral, or Roache there's always a high ranked guy who drops for whatever reason, maybe that's Stroman or Watcha.

Michael Tonkin

I'm trying to decide between BJ Hermsen and Micheal Tonkin. I liked them both a lot in 2008 and was very happy when we signed them both. Hermsen might be the most under rated prospect we have but I also called Tonkin the sleeper of the draft in 08' so I'm kind of proud that he's been good. Any help or thoughts?

I was thinking about that Loshe, Ortiz, Garza, Bartlett, Ramos, Hardy, Jones, Santos, Humber, and Young were all average or worse for us and then got better once they were traded or signed elsewhere. I know it's not universal but it looks like a pattern to me. We do seem to "miss" on a lot of draft picks or players never really reach their "potential" with us and there are probably several factors like scouting, training, and coaching. Overall in our system I just see a lot of consistencies and it just seems like we don't develop well. Again that might just be me, I'm not a professional.

I'm starting to question our coaches, there are just too many guys that we throw away that become very good. I think the last ace that we trained through our system was Johan. Am I the only one who feels that way?

Can we adopt 2?

The problem is the pitchers available in this draft, here are the numbers from the last start of the top 3 college pitchers projected in this draft: Kevin Gausman - 7 IP, 10 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 11 K, Kyle Zimmer - 8 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 10 K, Mark Appel - 6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K. None of those numbers are ace numbers and all of them give up WAY too many hits, if they're doing that in college major league hitters are gonna distroy them.

I've heard that it is down on top end talent but deep overall, especially in pitching. Guys like Appel and Zimmer would've been on the bottom of the top 10 or early teens last year but buxton and zunino could've been top 5. I don't think this really affects us because we have a top 2 pick. I really think that the weakness in this draft is due to all the questions around players whether it's injuries or inconsistencies. There is some really good talent though and I think draft experts are gonna be surprised with how well this draft turns out.

This is the exact attitude that gets teams in trouble. Go back and look at old drafts. You could go through those drafts and say "We could've had him?!" a bunch of times but no one remembers that we were over stocked with outfielders or we really needed pitching that year. All people look at is we passed on Chase Utley for Adam Johnson or we drafted Ryan Mills instead of C.C. Sabathia. If you tunnel vision yourself into only college pitchers then you could end up with Kyle Sleeth when Nick Markakis was on the board. Not saying we should stay away completely or that we should draft another outfielder, just that this draft is really shaky when it comes to college pitchers. There are some years with a Verlander or two and there are others with a bunch of Adam Johnson's and Kyle Sleeth's.

So with Zimmer's last horrific start that puts a serious question mark on him. He could be hurt but if he doesn't get his velocity back up he could end up being available at the 32nd pick. I really want an ace College pitcher who is close to the bigs but there are just too many questions around the players in this draft that I wouldn't want to reach for a need and end up with Adam Johnson. Appel's hitability(10 hits last game) and high pitch counts(149 last game!), Zimmer's dropped velocity, Gausman's control, Watcha's lack of a 3rd pitch, Stroman's size and lack of a 3rd pitch. Those are the only ones who profile as a potential ace. To me it's down to Zunino, McCullers, and Giolito. I know we need pitching and we currently have a catcher but the system's weak and Zunino won't be up until late 2013 or 2014 at the earliest and alot could happen in that time. Morneau could be gone or the permanent DH potentially moving Mauer to 1B or even 3B and being a back-up catcher. If anything Zunino could be trade bait down the road to get that ace we need so he's my favorite as of now. Of course I was happy with the Shooter Hunt pick, really liked Ben Tootle, and thought that Derrick McCallum was gonna be the 2B of the future so I'm wrong a lot.

I am no scout, just a draft geek with limited information, access to youtube videos, and a general distrust for scouts. shane, I don't really understand your second post, the twins have taken college pitchers at the top of the draft quite frequently and if you look at their history they don't take many high schoolers overall. After the first few rounds they generally take college guys. Also Plawecki looks like a good prospect but i doubt he is better than Zunino. He's posted good numbers in college but really struggled to make contact in the cape cod league. He doesn't have the power potential as Zunino but I think he could hit around 10 homers a year at best, what actually impresses me with Plawecki is his BB/K ratio, he's an on base machine. they could take a chance on him in the 2nd or 3rd and that seems like a good bet. I like Elander as well but I don't like that his "raw power" has not shown up in games. Also he's been called a "gamer" which makes me think he's gonna be a catching Nick Punto.......I guess there could be worse things. Peter O'Brian is also intriguing because his power has shown up in games although he seems pretty weak defensively, he is a senior though and with the new CBA he may end up being cheap. I do hope we end up with a catcher at some point early because when Chris Hermann is your best catching prospect there's a problem. I want to like Appel but he just seems to be another Luke Hochevar, lots of hype, not that much results. I read a scouting report where someone was raving about his numbers and saying he has dominated the competition with a 3+ ERA. Yeah in pro ball that's really good but in college that doesn't stand out to me as dominating numbers. I hope he does well but it's hard when he gets knocked around so much. BTW, does Kevin Gausman remind anyone else of Shooter Hunt? One last thing. I think I'm going to remove Ty Hansley from my wish list in the supplemental round. After watching some video the guy gets velocity solely from his arm, he's gonna be an injury concern most of his career.

I'm not trying to be rude but I am not a fan of the "Best Player Available" cop out. I want to talk names and who does everyone think IS the BPA. I get the concept of BPA but it doesn't mean that much. In 2008 the Rays thought they were drafting the BPA in Tim Beckham, he was the "Toolsy" pick. So far he has been terrible and i would be surprised if he makes it. They passed on Buster Posey who at the time I said would be a home run pick for them because it was a position of need, he was a home town guy, and he was an absolute BEAST in college. That same year the Orioles went with a player of need (also a bad strategy) and picked the highest ranked pitcher in that draft in Brian Matusz. So far he hasn't looked great but could still be a player of value. But looking at it now it doesn't matter if they picked Wieters the year before because Posey looks to be a perennial all star. That being said it was a weak pitching draft in 2008. Sometimes the answer is obvious and sometimes less clear. I am not a fan of Buxton. The scouting sites are drooling over him(just as they did for Beckham) and I just don't see it, the label "potential" and "toolsy" are used for him a lot but he sounds a lot like Aaron Hicks(great fielder, great arm, power potential, bat isn't there yet, bad competition). Maybe it's because I don't trust anyone who scouts say are "toolsy," ultimately I could be wrong about him but he has .250 hitter written all over him. I also don't trust Appel. He has the look and the "stuff" but has given up too many hits and struck out too few. For the #2 pick you better DOMINATE in college to be considered. If it were me it would be down to Zunino, Zimmer, Giolito, and wild card McCullers. Zunino is the real deal(just like Posey) because of his ability to stick behind the plate. He reminds me a lot of Pudge Rodriguez and at worst he will be a Yadier Molina type which I can live with. He is the "safe" pick but like I said with Posey I think years down the road there are gonna be a few teams who will regret passing on this young man because of "need." I like Zimmer a lot as well. He has great control, a very good fast ball, and room to grow because he's only been a pitcher for one year. He also has a very smooth delivery and big body which usually equates to durability.He has also dominated the competition. The dip in his velocity in his most recent outing makes me nervous also his inexperience but if it's college pitcher I think he's the way to go. I know Giolito is injured but I don't think it's a reason to shy away from him. He could move quick because of his polish like Clayton Kershaw and has Halliday comps. he is a risk but I'd rather take it with him than with Buxton. Plus if his injury does result in Tommy John at least he's really young and has the ability to get back on track fast (tommy john recovery is getting better by the year). You just can't teach his size and 100MPH fastball. McCullers is my wild card because he has absolutely destroyed high school hitters and I don't see his control issues. He's walked very few, struck out a ton, given up literally no runs, and has enough "stuff" to be a dominant starter. The reason he has dropped is because some view him as a future reliever, he's smaller than the others mentioned, and his mechanics are a bit unorthodox. Sounds a little like Lincecum to me(although pretty different) I'm also interested in what everyone thinks about the supplemental round guys we could look at. obviously that discussion is different because who knows if those guys will be around and it probably depends on our first pick but I'm gonna throw a few names out that have stuck out to me. P Marcus Stroman, P Ty Hansley, 3B Rio Ruiz, C Josh Elander, OF Victor Roache, OF Tyler Naquin, P Taylore Cherry, C/1B Peter O'Brian, P Brandon Kline, P Matt Smoral, P TJ Oakes(we will end up with him, I'm just not sure which round)