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twinsfanstreif

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Everything posted by twinsfanstreif

  1. twinsfanstreif
    Trades in the draft, it's so dumb that we are the only sport that can't trade picks. If someone covets certain players or is trying to rebuild then they should be able to do what they can to get what they want. It usually works out for both sides. Say we draft Buxton with our number 2 pick but we still want a college starter that can come in and help, that may not be there at 32 so we trade 32 and 42 to a team who is not impressed with the talent at the top to get another top 15 pick. It works out on both sides.
  2. twinsfanstreif
    At this point I'd go all in for Giolito, but I'm not the Twins and I highly doubt they do. I don't think he's that much of a risk, the injury just happened at a bad time. He's been compared to Bundy from last year(I don't know how good of a comp that is) and that is working out favorably so far. If you can get a high school arm that works out i.e. Kershaw, you can have an ace for a very long time.
  3. twinsfanstreif
    At 32 I really hope someone falls because of signability or injury because we have the best chanc to sign them. Smoral would fall into that category. Guys like Lance McCullers, Hunter Varient, and Max Fried also could fall because of that. I know it's a pipe dream but I hope Giolito falls because of signability and we make a run at him.
  4. twinsfanstreif
    I had a dream last night that we drafted Richie Shaffer at #2, I was confused and pretty pissed. It was one of those dreams where it felt real so I woke up kinda mad. I guess it could be worse but I'm glad that was just a dream. Although I wouldn't put it past the twins to make a bone headed move like that.
  5. twinsfanstreif
    I love this series! One thought, I just noticed that you passed over Ty Buttery, is there any reason for that? I am under the impression that he is a consensus first rounder
  6. twinsfanstreif
    I still think it's a mistake to cut out Giolito, Gausman, and even Correa at this point. The 3 mentioned above haven't done anything more than the 3 I mentioned to separate themselves from the group. Giolito has dropped because of injury but somehow Zimmer has not, Giolito has the most upside of anyone in this draft and I think it would be worth the risk to take a hard look in his direction. The other thought is that this is a ploy to get the Astros to draft one of these guys instead of the guy they really want. I know that the Texans here in Houston use the local beat writer frequently to throw other teams off of their real target. He'll say that his source said they are targeting player X, Y, and Z and they end up taking a complete wild card. It sounds far fetched but there could be something to it, or not
  7. twinsfanstreif
    Out of that group I would choose Zimmer or Appel, I prefer Zimmer over Appel although his injury makes him a wild card. Appel may end up being a very good pitcher but I'm not buying his strike out numbers though. I also have never heard that he hits triple digits, I've heard 95-98 range.
  8. twinsfanstreif
    Almost every mock I have seen has him in the middle of the 1st, especially after his dominating year. Most have him in the 10-20 range. Yes it's possible that he'll make it to our supplemental pick but I was throwing the option out there because he will probably be gone. There's no way you can strike out 120 in 101 innings and not have that gain interest somewhere.
  9. twinsfanstreif
    One name I haven't heard mentioned for a target to draft is Oklahoma State LHP Andrew Heaney. This is probably because he is a control artist and has average stuff with a smaller frame(sounds like a Twins pitcher already!) but I'm still torn. Dispite the obvious negatives he has put up eye popping stats(1.59 ERA, 120Ks to 16BBs in 101 IP, .189 BAA) in a pretty good conference none the less. I know we all want to fire baller but Greg Maddux didn't have outstanding stuff and neither did Mussina, heck Jamie Moyer has been pretty good with mediocre stuff for like 30 years and going. One pure stats he's blowing everyone away. So like I said I'm torn, when Maddux was drafted I'm sure there were the same concerns but now every team in the league would take him in a heart beat. I would say it's too early to draft a guy like that but he will certainly be gone by our supplimental pick and because baseball refuses to let is trade picks it's either at #2 or not have him. Should we take a fliar on him at #2 hoping he's Greg Maddux and being ok if he turns out to be Jamie Moyer? I'm not sure, What does everyone think?
  10. twinsfanstreif
    The only reason Stroman is "projected" as a bullpen guy is because of his size. He has the absolute most dominating stats and his stuff is great, don't go by hearsay. Lincecum had the same "projections". As far as the Appel vs Gausman goes it's hard to say one is drastically better because of a few minor BAA points and 2 runs. You have to take in account the competition they are facing and Gausman's missed more bats, 112 compared to 95 with the same #of BBs. There's no way by those stats that you could difinitively say that Appel is better. Like I said, I think he'll be decent, just not an ace. Zimmer does pose more risk but he has a higher upside with room to grow.I just don't see Appel getting much better than he is at now because he really hasn't gotten much better between this year and last, that's just my opinion, he may prove me wrong, nothing wrong with that.
  11. twinsfanstreif
    Also buxton is not a pure hitter, it is actually the weakest of all his tools.
  12. twinsfanstreif
    I would argue that Gausman is better than Appel, I actually think Appel is the 4th best college arm behind Gausman, Zimmer, and Stroman. Appel is a pitch to contact guy and guys like that just don't have ace potential
  13. twinsfanstreif
    Tonkin has allowed a run in each of his last 3 appearances. While not horrible we've come to expect scoreless innings out of him. He has kept a good strike out rate though. What has killed him is BAA, opposing hitters have been getting hits off of him more frequently recently, it's kinda been hit or strike out. Dispite all of that he still has a 2.12 ERA with 17 Ks in 17 innings.
  14. twinsfanstreif
    Just seeing the numbers of the other potential draftees from last week I'm thinking it's more and more a good idea to draft Giolito. Appel had 9 hits and 4 Ks in 7 IP, Gausman had 3ER and 4 Ks in 7 IP, Zimmer was scratched from his start because of injury. Plus with our track record any one of these guys will have TJ in a year or two if drafted by the twins anyways, might as well just go with the youngest guy with the most potential. In fact I'm thinking we just draft him and have him get TJ right away to save time.
  15. twinsfanstreif
    Zimmer's got better control and Gausman's got better velocity. Gausman doesn't walk a bunch but he's prone to wild pitches. I really like Gausman's wind up from a fan standpoint, it just looks cool, but it has a lot of movement and looks hard to repeat, it could also cause some stamina issues. He kind of looks like Dontrell Willis with the high leg kick. I've heard concern with Gausman's secondary stuff. I'm still torn on Zimmer, he's new to pitching so there's still a lot to learn for him. He's gotten his velocity up this year and cleaned up his mechanics a lot and developed a strong power curve and his slider is getting better. His delivery reminds me of Mark Prior, I hope he doen't have the injury stuff that mark did. He's one of the best athletes in the draft so maybe that'll help his stamina. If I had to choose right now I'd say Zimmer but I really hope the give a look to Giolito because he could be a star.
  16. twinsfanstreif
    can't argue with any of this...
  17. twinsfanstreif
    Since my first post Michael has pitched in 2 games and 3 innings. The most recent was 2 innings of perfect ball with 1 K. This brought his ERA down to 0.73 on the season with 12 K in 12.1 Innings to only 2 BB. BAA is down to .182. With only 1 run given up all season in one bad inning I think it's time to look at Tonkin as a closer candidate. Corey Williams is the current closer and while a top prospect he has given up 5 runs in 9 innings. I'd give it to Tonkin although I'm bias.....
  18. twinsfanstreif
    On my calculations pitchers have a 26% rate in the first 5 picks. Worse than SS and not much better than pitching over all
  19. twinsfanstreif
    If anyone wants to do their own research you can go here and do your own math. I did SS(hs and college), out of 214 drafted in the first round 40 had a WAR over 10, that's 18%, granted 10 of those were in the top 5 for a 30% rate. A little worse than college pitchers but I wonder what pitchers would be if you calculated in HS players.
  20. twinsfanstreif
    Also on a draft chat done by perfectgame.com a scout was writing about how he is much higher on Correa than Buxton, he said Buxton is not a "5 tool" guy like everyone is saying but more like a 3 tool.
  21. twinsfanstreif
    You have to take into account that guys like Adam Johnson technically made it to the majors. It's about the amount of guys that were affective. 50 of the 222 had a career WAR of 10 or more(keep in mind that Jason Marqis has a Career WAR of 12) that makes 22% were affective. Keep in mind that many people would be very upset if our #2 pick turned out to be like Jason Marquis. So really the 25 that had a WAR over 20 have been very good to elite and that's only 11% of college pitchers taken in the first round. Those numbers look much less promising.
  22. twinsfanstreif
    I've heard a lot of people on here say that if we want an ace we have to draft him high in the first. This comment may be totally legit but does anyone know currently of each "ace" or ace caliber player in the majors how we're they aquired or what round were they drafted in? I would be curious to see the result because I feel this is a blanket statement with no research involved.
  23. twinsfanstreif
    Another thing to consider is that he is a senior and with the new CBA teams will want to draft signable guys in the 3-10 rounds in order to get the guys with signability concerns earlier. It's also bad to look at things like previous draft round. Like I said he looked pretty bad last year and he's made significant adjustments. George Springer was also drafted by the twins in the late rounds(40-50) and was taken in the early 1st round just a few years later. It's not impossible.
  24. twinsfanstreif
    After watching some you tube videos(I know they're not telling the whole story but it's all I have). I'm impressed by his growth between last year and this year. He has begun to extend his arm out more giving him more velocity and a smoother less jerky delivery. He seems to locate better as well. His delivery is pretty close to side arm but not quite there. If he raises his angle a bit and can generate a longer stride he could get better velocity. I don't know where he is at velocity wise because there was no gun but it looks to be in the high 80s to low 90s by sheer eyeball test. Go check it out on you tube, there's one from march 2012 and then another from February of last year. I don't grade him at 6th round by that tape, I would say 4th but I think he could be a solid major league 4-5th starter, maybe a long relief guy but that would be good for a 4th round guy.
  25. twinsfanstreif
    I never said he was a 2nd round talent, I said they will draft him in the 2nd or 3rd round. We reach every year for local kids and especially U of M kids. Oakes is the best pitcher on the team and holds a 1.54 ERA, his Ks are ok but not great, he limits hits, and his BB numbers are pretty good. That sounds exactly like a kid that the Twins would draft. I have not seen him in person so I can't comment on his mechanics, velocity, and such but we will draft him and if they feel as though his ERA is enough to entise some other team we will over draft him.
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